The ASEAN Regional Forum and Preventive Diplomacy: Built to Fail?

Abstract

Various reasons purport to explain why the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Regional Forum (ARF) has failed to evolve from confidence building to preventive diplomacy (PD). These include the ARF's large membership, its strict adherence to sovereignty and noninterference principles that contradict any effective implementation of PD, and contrasting strategic perspectives among its participants. Although these factors have certainly hindered security cooperation, none are sufficient conditions by themselves to explain the forum's ambivalence toward PD. The authors argue that these factors do not tell the whole story, not least when they have not stood in the way of experiments in PD by other processes in the Asia-Pacific. The claim here is that the ARF has evolved into a highly inflexible forum, which in turn has led to the formalization of its approach to PD. This has severely inhibited the adoption of a PD agenda and actionable measures under the ARF framework.     

ASEAN ISIS与亚太安全制度建构:以ARF机制为核心的分析

本文以ASEAN ISIS在创设亚太安全合作机制--ARF中所发挥的作用为例,分析亚太认知共同体在安全机制建构中的作用,即提出和形成一种新的安全观,并推动亚太安全观的社会化与机制化.这一研究表明,在适当的情况下,认知共同体也可以在国际安全合作领域发挥重要作用.     

The Responsibility to Protect in Southeast Asia: Can ASEAN Reconcile Humanitarianism and Sovereignty?

Abstract

This article explores how relevant the “Responsibility to Protect” (RtoP) principle is in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia is usually thought of as a region that is highly resistant to external “interference” in its domestic affairs and relatively impervious to the influence of externally generated norms. The article explores the potential relevance of RtoP through an analysis of the impact of Cyclone Nargis on Myanmar. Although the military regime in Myanmar was initially resistant to external intervention, pressure from both the United Nations and especially fellow members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) caused the regime to change its behavior. The authors argue that this marks an important shift in intra-ASEAN relations and suggests that even in Southeast Asia where sovereignty is still jealously guarded, external norms and ideas can have a decisive impact in propitious circumstances.     

冷战时期美国对东南亚区域合作的政策选择--从东约（SEATO）到东盟（ASEAN）

受冷战的影响，20世纪50-70年代的东南亚区域合作经历了由外源型向内生型的方式转换。外来因素不仅塑造了东南亚区域主义基本样式，决定了区域合作的性质，而且极大地影响了区域合作的发展进程和方向。在众多的外部因素中，域外大国，尤其是西方阵营的主导性国家———美国的外交政策发挥着关键作用。冷战时期，美国对东南亚区域合作的政策也经历了由积极介入、强力主导到施加间接影响的转变，主要体现在对东约（ SEATO）和东盟（ ASEAN）这两个不同性质的区域合作组织采取不同的政策。本文即选取这两个区域组织为案例，通过对史料的解读，分析冷战时期美国对东南亚不同类型的区域组织采取不同政策的原因和政策实施效果。     

METAPHORES, TRANSFERTS, TRANSPORTS

此文作者从隐喻一词在希腊语中的本义(metaphorai:转变,移动)出发,指出隐喻中被转移的并不是文本的意义,而是读者赋予文本的意义,读者在转移文本意义的同时,也转移了他对文本作者形成的概念,文本作者变成了“我们在阅读中创造出来的虚构人物”。因此,阅读构成的意指活动和精神分析中的转移一样遵循着相同的法则:欲望法则。读者应该意识到,他是把自己的想象投射到了文本上,是出于本性而解释文本,只有这样,隐喻以及它所提示的转移才能使读者成为他自己,才能确认作者的他人身份,隐喻转移才能成为一种丰富文本意义的引人入胜的游戏。     

海事兴,万事兴,民族兴

自本世纪以来,一场通过建设海洋保护区,以海洋生态环境保护名义进行的"新海洋圈地运动"悄然兴起。近来,亚太海域波诡云谲,在南海诸岛,中国与菲律宾、越南针锋相对;在钓鱼岛,在苏岩礁,中国分别与日本、韩国唇枪舌剑中国这些对手背后。     

同化,融合,还是共存?

东南亚华人与当地民族的关系涉及政治、经济、社会、文化等多个方面。二战后东南亚国家如何处理华人的入籍问题 ,并附加了一些什么条件 ?与此相联系 ,在文化上 ,东南亚华人是完全同化于当地民族的文化 ,还是积极地与当地民族文化融合 ,或是基本上保持自己的文化并与当地民族文化和平共处 ?这些仍然是值得我们思考的问题。     

女巫,游客,猪眼看人

一条通向历史,充满难堪的往事、引人捉摸的反省;另一条通向现在,充满猎奇、享乐——以及小猪、妖怪和女巫玩偶。这两条路都刻在美国文化的精神版图上。     

普法,可以下沉,但别下流

山东高级人民法院微信公众号上一篇文章《不能仅以"出轨"为理由,请求离婚》出圈了。这篇文章言之凿凿地说:你即使掌握了配偶的出轨证据,也只有证明配偶存在"不忠诚"行为,但是不能证明你配偶与他人"同居",更没有证明你们感情破裂;最新司法解释明确:出轨不属于同居行为,不能据此要求离婚。     

万体,很阿拉,很情怀……

在上海市民的眼中,作为上海地标再度翻新的上海体育馆,换了新衣,但依然是心中那个充满情怀与激情的“万体馆”。虎年新春伊始,上海徐家汇体育公园内,综合馆“万体汇”启动部分试运营,迎来了众多“以球会友”的申城市民。这座未来占地达到35.96公顷的新型城市体育公园,除了新规划建设的综合馆“万体汇”。     

徐旭峰:小山,小水,小趣味

无论你见过还是没见过他,那纸绢里流淌着的小情趣、小趣味,却是怎么都掩盖不了的。作为上海画坛80后青年画家的代表之一,徐旭峰身上流淌着江南人的血液,于是,这种与生俱来的文化血脉,也就成了他的艺术作品里最为显著的特征。无论你见过还是没见过他,那纸绢里流淌着的小情趣、小趣味,却是怎么都掩盖不了的。     

法语四个动词《amener,apporter,emmener,emporter》浅析

在学习法语中，常常遇到四个动词，让人困惑不已。它们分别是amener,apporter,emmener,emporter。但是如果对于这四个动词的构成进行合理解剖和解读．也许对学习和掌握有一定的帮助。     

Development for all? State schemes,security, and marginalization in Kashgar,Xinjiang

ABSTRACT

The past decade of development schemes has been experienced very differently by various groups within the city of Kashgar in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China. The recent exacerbation of social inequalities, stratification, and tensions in Kashgar is a structural consequence of two phases of government policies: an accelerated formalization of the economy and remodelling of the city-scape as part of modernistic development implemented before 2014, followed by a phase of strong securitization. Based on long-term ethnographic fieldwork between 2009 and 2017, this paper analyzes the situation, reactions, and strategies of different groups of Uyghur residents of Kashgar to cope with the changing socio-economic and political environment.     

2012,从头再来

有些遭遇是选择的结果,有些遭遇却无从选择。自然灾害——比如大地震——是无法选择的,但不同的道路摆在同一群年轻人面前时,他们依从习惯、别人的期待和天生的性格倾向,做出了自己的选择,结局大不相同。这组图片展示了不同的人在2012年做出的选择和他们承受的代价。在这个时代里,一个人、一个社群、一座城市、一个国家,都可能在短短...     

电影节,幕后戏

你知道近300部电影是怎样从1600部片子中选出来的吗?6月24日晚,第15届上海国际电影节(以下简称SIFF)圆满落幕,8座金爵奖各归其主。回首过去的9天,各国佳片全城云集,红毯星光令人目迷,许多人,把他们的作息调成了"电影节模式"。     

冬运会,一锅粥

较量,前所未有地升级;乱象,愈演愈烈……全国第十二届冬运会1月3日至13日在吉林长春举行。冠以全国比赛,实际主要是黑龙江吉林两个冰雪项目大省的较量。与以往不同的是,随着2013年全运会项目提前列入到本届大赛,黑吉冰雪代表队的较量更是有了前所未有的升级,而     

Anomalous authoritarianism: what,which, why?

Research on autocracies has gained new momentum in the last decade. One element of this research is the observation that some autocracies are characterised by structural conditions that are normally conducive for democracy. These ‘anomalous autocracies’ have high levels of socioeconomic development and democratic neighbour countries. The study of these cases might expose factors that are decisive for autocratic stability and studying them might give us a better understanding of barriers towards democratisation. This paper contributes to the growing literature on autocracies by mapping anomalous autocracies during the third wave of democratisation, thereby paving the way for systematic case selection in future studies. A large-N analysis of 159 cases (1975–2008) identifies Belarus, Chile, China, Cuba, Morocco, North Korea, Peru, Singapore, Swaziland, Togo and Zimbabwe. In a second step, the paper lays out a theoretical framework that centres on actors and institutions. Rulers must establish elite–elite and elite–mass interaction, and this papers argues that they can do so through quasi-compliance of elites and the masses based on traditional institutions woven into a dominant party. The paper uses the framework to tentatively examine the resilience of authoritarian rule in Swaziland and Morocco, two most-different anomalous cases. In both cases, an elaborate traditional institution has co-opted government, business and rural elites and coordinated interaction within elite circles and with the masses, in turn enabling the remarkable regime resilience.