从越南第12次南海国际学术研讨会看南海问题与国际传播话语权的炒作

作为海洋战略实施的具体措施之一,十多年来越南外交研究机构持续主持召开关于南海(越南称"东海")的国际学术研讨会,已形成一种较为稳定的机制。第12次南海国际学术研讨会是在越南因应新冠肺炎疫情冲击、世界和南海地区形势发生重大变化的背景下召开的,呈现出了一些不同于以往各届会议的新特点。越南主流媒体对此次会议给予了较多关注和宣传报道,力图表现出研讨会的所谓"公正性""学术性""法理性"特点,反映出的意愿则是服务于攫取和扩展自身海洋权益的目的,并与美国关于南海问题的声明立场相呼应。举办方试图通过国际学术研讨会平台的形式,渲染南海复杂和严峻的形势,推卸在南海制造麻烦和分歧的责任,宣扬其南海政策主张,寻求影响和主导在南海问题上的国际传播话语权。维护南海的和平、合作与发展是南海区域国家和东盟的共同愿景,推动这一愿景的落实是各方的责任,越南需要拿出切实的诚意和实际行动,不能仅仅停留在口头上,其媒体也应该发挥出更多的建设性作用。     

Assessing public opinion’s influence on foreign policy: the case of China’s assertive maritime behavior

ABSTRACT

English-language analysis of Chinese foreign policy has often cited nationalist public opinion as a key driver of Beijing’s recent assertive maritime conduct. Yet these important conjectures have not been systematically tested. How can we know whether public opinion has been driving an authoritarian state’s foreign policy? What are some cases in which concern about popular nationalism may have influenced Beijing’s behavior in disputed maritime spaces? To answer these questions, this article constructs a methodological framework for assessing the likely impact of public opinion on particular instances of state action. Applying this to five cases typical of China’s on-water policy in the South and East China Seas since 2007 indicates that popular nationalism has had little to do with China’s assertive turn on its maritime periphery.     

理解南海共同开发与航行自由问题的新思路——基于国际法视角看南海争端的解决路径

南海共同开发与航行自由问题的明确与解决,直接关系到中国的海洋权益以及南海的未来法律秩序。尽管泰国湾地区的共同开发经验能够为中国提供借鉴,但南海主海的情况与之有很大区别。共同开发方式在国际范围内接受程度不广泛,实际效果不理想,其对南海争端的可适用程度较低。因此,应对共同开发方式在南海争端解决中的作用予以重新定位。从长远的角度出发,共同开发不能成为解决南海争端的优先选择和主要方式,即便在短期内以共同开发方式为处理南海争端的权宜之计,也应当注重构建一个合理的共同开发机制。中国对南海的"历史性权利"并未被后来的有效国际法律规范所更改或取消,这一权利不能按照《联合国海洋法公约》的架构来解读,也并不存在妨碍南海航行自由的问题。相反,倒是其他南海周边国家滥用《联合国海洋法公约》规定所提出的意在分割、控制南海的种种主张更加妨碍南海的航行自由。比较之下,中国的主张更加符合南海水域本身的性质及其适用当代海洋法之后的应然状态。     

THE MODERN CREATION OF CHINA’S ‘HISTORIC RIGHTS’ CLAIM IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

The overlapping territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea threaten to spark conflict in East Asia. On several occasions in recent years, disputes over the right to extract oil and gas have caused clashes between Chinese and Southeast Asian vessels. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) was agreed by almost all countries in 1982 to try to resolve such disagreements. However, the People's Republic of China is currently trying to claim rights that go beyond UNCLOS and infringe on the UNCLOS-based rights of the other claimants. It deploys two arguments in particular: that the archipelagos in the South China Sea collectively generate rights to maritime resources and that China enjoys ‘historic rights’ in the sea. Neither of these arguments is found within UNCLOS, however. This article explores the origin of these Chinese arguments and finds that the ‘historic rights’ claim can be traced to a single Taiwanese academic writing in the 1990s during a period of intense debate in Taiwan over its relationship with the PRC.     

International Law and the November 2004 “Han Incident”

Abstract

The Ishigaki Strait is an international strait by the terms of the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention, but for national security reasons it is not recognized as such by the Japanese government, which advocates a narrower definition of what constitutes an international strait in which the right of transit passage applies. China, as a traditional land power with tradinationally weak maritime forces, has historically agreed with Japan's limitations on access through such straits. As China's maritime strength grows, it has increasingly greater interest in access to ocean spaces. However, because of tension and poor coordination between its military and foreign policy bureaucracies, China missed an opportunity during the diplomatic crisis in November 2004 to align its position on maritime law with its strategic interests.     

冷战初期日本南海政策及东南亚战略取向

冷战使日本在美国的全球战略中作用提升,成为反共"防波堤",其具有政治目的性的东南亚"经济外交"呈现出明显的海洋战略取向,且影响至今。因地缘利益、东南亚战略,日本南海政策的基本出发点自冷战开始后始终没变,即追随美国遏制中国政策,对南海诸岛归属问题上采取模糊态度和立场,这为后来南海周边某些国家侵占南海岛礁留下所谓借口。此时日本还曾插足于南海诸岛,由于海峡两岸对南海权益的维护使其非法行为无法为继,但随着经济的发展,日本越来越依赖南海航道和加大南海石油资源的开发,这决定其"关心"南海问题就是势所必然了。     

The Philippines Discovers its Maritime Domain: The Aquino Administration’s Shift in Strategic Focus from Internal to Maritime Security

With China’s naval expansion in the South China Sea, the Philippine government has eased up its counter-insurgency/counter-terrorism campaign and has vigorously pursued instead the modernization of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) particularly in developing the deterrence capability of the Philippine Navy (PN). However, slow-paced and hampered by scant resources, the naval build-up will hardly deter China’s encroachment on the Philippine maritime territory. Faced with this predicament, the Philippines has resorted to forging new security partnerships with the United States and Japan, two major naval powers in East Asia. The paper concludes that maritime security will remain the Philippines’ priority concern way into the third decade of the 21st century.     

Militarizing Japan’s Southwest Islands: Subnational Involvement and Insecurities in the Maritime Frontier Zone

Abstract

This paper sheds light on a relatively underexplored aspect of Japan’s recent security changes by examining the subnational level where the impact has been far-reaching. It focuses on Japan’s maritime frontier zone: the Yaeyama Islands located at the southwestern end of the Japanese archipelago and administered as part of Okinawa Prefecture. It argues that while Yaeyama militarization has been primarily a national response to China’s portrayed assertiveness in the East China Sea, it has also been facilitated by the strategic actions of local political elites, in cooperation with sympathetic extra-local forces. Political elites from two islands, Yonaguni and Ishigaki, have been motivated primarily by diverging material and ideational factors. Yonaguni elites have viewed militarization largely through the prism of “compensation politics.” Their counterparts in Ishigaki have been driven by more ideological objectives, seeking militarization for deterrence purposes and otherwise transforming the island into a rightist breeding ground in defence of Japanese territory. Yaeyama militarization has not only diminished enthusiasm for seeking autonomy and enhancing economic security through microregional cooperation, but has also enhanced local-level insecurities while creating and exacerbating divisions.     

Maritime Security in the Region: SCS and ECS as Key Arenas for Converging Political Interests

This article examines the situations in the South China Sea (SCS) and East China Sea (ECS) and the reasons for recent political and strategic attention. As background it reviews the history of maritime activities in Asia where there was no real maritime Great Power with continuity. It then discusses the latest situations in the ECS around the Senkaku Islands, where China's Coast Guard vessels and fishing boats have made occasional incursions into Japanese waters, and the relatively-less understood Scarborough Shoal and the Pratas Islands in the SCS that have strategic significance in a future powerbalance in the SCS. The article then notes the US rebalance to Asia and the interpretation of the principle of Freedom of Navigation. It continues with the strategic and diplomatic measures and operational and tactical measures that Japan should take. It concludes noting that Japan and the US must prepare a wide range of measures in advance to regain and maintain maritime security and stability.     

论当前中国和平维护南海权益的国际环境

2010年以来,在美国高调介入南海地区事务以及越南推动南海问题多边化与外部化政策的影响下,东盟对南海问题的影响日趋增强,主要南海权益争端国家对中国的态度趋向强硬。南海问题的发展趋势表明,南海争端矛盾的尖锐化、问题解决机制的多边化、区域外强国介入的常态化已经成为中国和平维护南海权益不得不面对的国际环境。而美国与东盟提出的多边谈判和尽早协商通过《南海地区行为准则》的建议短期内无益于问题的解决。从容易解决的争端下手,通过双边谈判首先解决某些具体争端,逐渐消解南海问题的复杂性是中国应对当前南海问题复杂国际因素、和平维护南海权益的必要之举。     

China’s rising naval ambitions in the Indian Ocean: aligning ends,ways and means

ABSTRACT

China’s naval footprint in the Indian Ocean has expanded considerably over the last decade. This growing presence has led to significant debates about China’s goals and capabilities in the region. This article argues that China’s trajectory over the last ten years reflects an alignment of ends, ways and means in the Indian Ocean. The main driver behind China’s ambitions in the region is the need for Beijing to secure pivotal maritime lines of communications that carry a large share of Chinese oil imports and a sizable part of Chinese exports. Fulfilling this mission has required a significant adjustment of China’s naval strategy, and the addition of ‘open seas protection’ to the core missions of the PLA Navy. This strategy has, in turn, been supported by the development of a navy with increased sea control capabilities and overseas basing plans that have started to materialize in Djibouti.     

美国“印太”战略对南海问题的影响——以“印太”战略支点国家为重点

随着印度洋战略价值的上升,美国在"重返亚太"战略基础上推出了"印太"战略,其战略实质是美国在印太地区缔造战略支点,并将其塑造成美国霸权下的多极格局。印度、澳大利亚、日本作为美国在印太地区的战略支点国家,它们自身在南海地区具有重要的战略利益。在美国"印太"战略的引导下,战略支点国家将对南海问题产生深刻的影响,尤其是将加剧中国周边安全环境的复杂化。在中美战略博弈的背景下,考察美国"印太"战略特别是其支点国家对南海问题的影响,有助于我们把握美国"印太"战略的实质,也有益于我们全面地分析南海地区的安全形势,提出应对策略。     

Diplomatic Rivalries and Cultural One-upmanship: New Zealand’s Long Quest to Become More Pacific than Australia

Abstract

New Zealand’s governmental and non-governmental agencies, academic commentators and media have long framed the country as uniquely and favourably positioned on cultural grounds to be a strategic diplomatic actor in the South Pacific. Justifications for the framing stem from two linked complexes: the history of New Zealand’s colonial and post-colonial involvement in a number of Polynesian territories in the Pacific; and the related history of relations between settlers and indigenes in New Zealand itself. These different strands of the argument have increasingly been brought together by the growth in numbers of New Zealand-born and domiciled Pacific Islanders. They, along with Maori, have been recruited into the diplomatic service and overtly contribute to the use of Polynesian encounter rituals in New Zealand’s diplomatic outreach. Such histories are used to justify New Zealand’s role in the Pacific in its relations with other external powers, especially in diplomatic jostling with Australia. The claims to special insight and cultural capital are subjected to critical scrutiny.     

China in Pacific Regional Politics

Abstract

Foreign aid from China to the island countries of the Pacific has grown rapidly over the last few decades and an expanding body of literature has examined various aspects of what this means for politics in the region generally. This article focuses on China’s impact on Pacific regional politics partly from the perspective of identity politics. It suggests that China has substantially increased its engagement with the Pacific island states by making use of its own identity as a South–South development partner in contrast to traditional (mainly Western) donors in the region. Unlike most traditional donors, however, China’s diplomacy and engagement are based largely on bilateralism, and this is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. This approach could continue to limit its impact on Pacific regionalism, regardless of how it projects its image.     

大国博弈与南海局势的发展——2019“南海论坛”综述

当前国际形势正面临"百年未有之大变局",南海局势的管控、稳定和发展也存在诸多挑战和变数,需要持续深入的研究和探讨。在南京大学中国南海研究协同创新中心主办、南京大学华智全球治理研究院协办的2019"南海论坛"上,与会专家围绕"2018-2019年南海局势评估""南海海洋权益法律风险盘点与评估""大国博弈与南海局势的未来走向""‘一带一路’与南海局势的发展""南海‘蓝色伙伴’关系--内容与前景"五个议题,进行了深入坦诚的交流与研讨。"南海论坛"旨在构建一个交流和研究平台,以激发前瞻性和创造力的研究和思维方向,推动南海问题综合研究,构建共同的学术网络以服务国家南海战略决策。     

Democracy,African intellectuals and African Renaissance

Abstract

This article argues that democracy is a prerequisite for the African Renaissance. The role of African intellectuals is crucial in making the dream of the African Renaissance come true. This article revisits the discourse on the African Renaissance, its history and content before dealing with the issue of democracy. Democracy is closely related to human rights and development and is a sine qua non for the African Renaissance. The current discourse on the African Renaissance is not new. The first international conference on the African Renaissance was held in Dakar, Senegal, from 26 February to 2 March 1996 where African intellectuals gathered to celebrate the works of Professor Cheikh Anta Diop, ten years after his death. The theme of the conference was ‘African Renaissance in the Third Millennium’. The first African Renaissance Conference in South Africa took place from 28 to 29 September 1998. Thabo Mbeki ‐ then, Deputy Pesident of South Africa ‐ read the keynote address on ‘Giving the Renaissance content: Objectives and definitions’. This article complements efforts at redefining the roles of African intellectuals in fostering democracy through a conscious application of the framework of African Renaissance.     

Sino-Japanese Energy Security and Regional Stability: The Case of the East China Sea Gas Exploration

The Sino-Japanese dispute over the East China Sea maritime resources was triggered by the unsettled maritime boundary and the territorial dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. The dispute has been ascribed by many to intensified competition between China and Japan over energy supply. However this article attributes the fundamental cause of the conflict to power politics and political distrust, which are deemed to have the key role in preventing the two governments from finding a solution. The article analyses the origin and the causes responsible for the Sino-Japanese dispute over the East China Sea gas exploration, and then proceeds to investigate the diplomatic dialogues to reveal the key obstacles in the process.

PIRATES OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEAS

Piracy has been endemic in the South China and surrounding seas for centuries. There is a long history of piracy waxing and waning depending on the political and economic situation in the region. There have been differing levels of piracy on the South China Coast and the seas around the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia. In the Sulu and Celebes Seas as well as off the coast of Aceh, there are examples of piracy used as a tactic by groups also engaged in terrorism. Piracy has periodically been suppressed by a strong naval power in the region. The growth and projection of Chinese naval power to control the South China Sea to the extent of the ‘nine dash line’ has suppressed piracy on the China Coast and in the South China Sea, but had limited impact on the Straits of Malacca and the seas around Borneo and Mindanao.     

Managing Small Allies Amidst Patron–Adversary Rapprochement: A Tale of Two Koreas

ABSTRACT

What explains variation in how a patron manages its existing alliance with a client state when improving relations with an adversary? I theorize that the patron’s alliance management strategy is influenced by the client’s degree of bargaining power over its patron. Bargaining power derives from the availability of an outside option. Using archival and interview evidence, I show variation in alliance bargaining dynamics during US–China rapprochement. While the United States was dismissive toward South Korea, China was highly placating toward North Korea, making concessions and providing compensation. However, China became more dismissive during Sino-South Korean normalization, when North Korea’s bargaining power decreased. The findings have important policy implications for understanding how a patron could simultaneously manage alliance and adversary relationships.     

“Like photographs of ghosts”: representing post-apartheid South Africa in Ivan Vladislavić’s Double Negative

The South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) heard its first testimony in April of 1996. Two years later, in 1998, the first volume of the report of the commission was published. While it aims to be a document representing closure in terms of the history of apartheid, the TRC report is rife with gaps and omissions across the long history of apartheid. Approaching this history and its legacy in literary prose, Ivan Vladislavi?’s Double Negative (2010) serves as a counter-history to the TRC’s narrative of closure. Extending formal strategies from his earlier works, including composite literary form and performative modes of writing, Vladislavi? employs photography and ghosts within his text to unsettle official history and to offer a melancholic approach to the past of apartheid and its ongoing effects in post-apartheid South Africa.