Managing Small Allies Amidst Patron–Adversary Rapprochement: A Tale of Two Koreas

ABSTRACT

What explains variation in how a patron manages its existing alliance with a client state when improving relations with an adversary? I theorize that the patron’s alliance management strategy is influenced by the client’s degree of bargaining power over its patron. Bargaining power derives from the availability of an outside option. Using archival and interview evidence, I show variation in alliance bargaining dynamics during US–China rapprochement. While the United States was dismissive toward South Korea, China was highly placating toward North Korea, making concessions and providing compensation. However, China became more dismissive during Sino-South Korean normalization, when North Korea’s bargaining power decreased. The findings have important policy implications for understanding how a patron could simultaneously manage alliance and adversary relationships.     

The strong German state and the weak feminist movements

This article examines the causes of the marginalisation of women in political and economic decision‐making processes that are part of the ‘routine’ policy‐making process of the German state. The larger theoretical question is whether there is a ‘gender bias of the German state’ that has made its institutional structures less amenable to women's participation and their political agenda. Given the evidence, the answer is ‘yes’. There are specific exclusionary mechanisms that characterise the German polity, and these are antithetical to women's participation and concerns. These mechanisms act as gatekeepers of both legislation and discursive practices and are constitutive of the German Fraktionstaat and the corporatist system of economic bargaining.     

The Role of Leaders in Intra-Alliance Bargaining

This article develops a theory about the role of leaders in long-term international bargaining, specifically in the context of negotiations within existing military alliances. The international relations literature suggests that domestic opposition (to cooperation on a particular issue) increases a state’s bargaining power vis-á-vis its negotiating partner. This study confirms that domestic opposition to cooperation generally increases a state’s bargaining power at the international level, but it suggests that domestic opposition to the state’s leader – which affects the leader’s vulnerability – does not have a uniform effect on the country’s bargaining power. It demonstrates the central role a state leader plays in international bargaining and explains the dynamics of alliance negotiations left unexplained in the literature. In order to examine the argument, this study uses “structured, focused comparison” of the U.S. alliances with Japan and Spain.     

Authoritarian resilience and regime cohesion in Morocco after the Arab Spring

Abstract

This article argues that Morocco's competitive authoritarian regime is more resilient today in certain key respects than it was when the Arab Spring began. Drawing on Levitsky and Way's dimension of organisational power, the article contends the regime was sufficiently unnerved by the unrest to resort to the use of high intensity coercion as part of its response to the 20 February Movement. The article maintains that, in employing this force successfully, the regime has turned the protests into an important source of non-material cohesion for its security apparatus and thereby enhanced its ability to defend itself from similar challenges in the future.     

Sovereignty–Security Nexus,Domestic Constraints,and the Taiwan Independence Policy (1988–2010)

Abstract

This article explains the rise and fall of the so-called Taiwan independence policy during the period of 1988–2010. It defines the Taiwan independence policy as an internal political move by the Taiwanese government to establish Taiwan as a separate and sovereign political entity on the world stage. It reviews two existing prevailing theses – electoral politics and shifting identity – and points out their weaknesses, the former's being its indeterminacy and unfalsifiability, and the latter's being its inadequacy to explain policy change. A new explanation focusing on relative power shift (military balance, alliance strength, and diplomatic standing) and domestic constraints (resource and political constraints) is then proposed to explain the rise and fall of the Taiwan independence policy. A brief examination of the 1988–2010 cross-strait history lends strong support to the theory.     

Between Interest and Responsibility: Assessing China's Foreign Policy and Burgeoning Global Role

Abstract

This article is situated within the contemporary debates about the nature and purpose of China's growing power. It uses the concepts of “national interest” and “international responsibility” as a framework of analysis for Chinese foreign policy, and develops a three-dimensional typology to conceptualize their relationship (antagonistic; instrumental; mutually constitutive). This article adopts two main arguments. First, a stronger China is one gravitating toward greater notions of international responsibility, albeit instrumentally. Second, observable trends in China's evolving worldview indicate, however, that it is conceiving its national interests more broadly, embracing further socialization and greater normative commitments to international society. One may therefore view China's burgeoning global role as a great power with a degree of “cautious optimism.”     

Sino-Indian Security Predicaments for the Twenty-First Century

Abstract

This article considers various security predicaments affecting relations between India and China. These Sino-Indian security predicaments include their territorial dispute, their nuclear arms race, their encirclement and alignment scenarios, their trade and energy issues, and their future prospects. International relations (IR) theory is deployed around these varied security predicaments, with power and perception particularly evident in IR realism, geopolitics, constructivism, and security dilemma dynamics. Balance-of-power theory is complemented by balance-of-threat considerations. India's hedging strategy towards China and China's own strategy of transition point to each country looking to their own respective rise for the mid century.     

“Making the Crooked Straight”: China's Grand Strategy of “Peaceful Rise” and its Central Asian Dimension

Abstract

This article argues that China's foreign policy since 1991 has been guided by the evolution of a grand strategy of “peaceful rise” that seeks to ensure China's smooth transition to great power status. Moreover, it suggests that a strategic preoccupation with Central Asia has become an important expression of this grand strategy. Framing these arguments is a third overarching one that postulates that China's foreign policy in Central Asia is not only intimately related to the strategy of “peaceful rise” but also to a particular, historically and geopolitically informed narrative of China's “Inner Asian” power.     

The market as social convention

Abstract

This article analyzes the actually-emerging market in contemporary China as an institution that is shaped by the exercise of government power and by the social interaction of migrants, officials, and urban consumers. The author argues against understanding the market as an autonomous and de-contextualized institution brought about by the actions of rationally calculative individuals. Drawing on the insights of economic sociology about the socially embedded nature of market, the author pictures the emergence of the market in China in general, and that of the home renovation market in particular, as a messy social process full of distorted information, social bargaining over price, deception and manipulation, state repression, creative learning, and adaptation on the part of various agents in the marketplace. Using the life story of one migrant worker in Beijing's home renovation industry the author critiques the prevailing discourse about the market as an autonomous institution and illustrates the processes of social construction of the market in China.     

Extremists are extremely extreme

Abstract

China's foreign policy during the Cultural Revolution is usually treated as a non-event. Melvin Gurtov in his careful and extremely useful chronological account of China's foreign policy at this time (RAND, RM-5934-PR) still deems it “an aberrant episode” (VII, 83). He describes it as the manifestation of a power struggle between extreme young zealots and implacable older powerholders. “Substantive policy views” are almost beside the point (76). Far Eastern Economic Review (1968 Year Book) also characterizes Cultural Revolution foreign policy as one of “excesses” and “‘extreme’ behavior,” giving anti-foreignism as its content. Anti-foreignism is seen as a deeply felt belief that an attempt to borrow from foreigners has resulted in “manipulation and exploitation” by foreigners. Yung Ho, writing for the Union Research Institue's (URI) Communist China 1967, finds the essence of Mao's thought to be opposition to “anything foreign,” and China's attempt at “propagating Mao-Tse-tung's thought abroad” to be an aggressive policy “even worse than Hitler's rule,” one which inevitably produced setbacks which further isolate China (326–327).     

Keeping the Dragon at Bay: India's Counter-Containment of China in Asia

Abstract

Ever since their emergence as modern states in the middle of the twentieth century, relations between India and China have been exceedingly complex in nature and, for the most part, fraught with tension. This article reviews aspects of the Sino-Indian relationship over the past decade from a realist perspective, showing that despite surface improvements, bilateral ties are still marred by strong feelings of mistrust. It is argued that China has engaged in a policy of containment of India, challenging its regional pre-eminence in South Asia and stymieing its neighbor's emergence as a major world power. A careful study of India's newly assertive foreign policy, both in Asia and beyond, reveals that New Delhi has chosen to back its policy of engagement of Beijing with a form of counter-containment.     

India as a Regional Power: Identifying the Impact of Roles and Foreign Policy Orientation on the South Asian Security Order

Abstract

The Regional Powers and Security Framework provides a systematic method to assess how the relative strength and behavior of regional powers influence regional security orders. This article applies the framework to India as a South Asian regional power. The analysis indicates that although the region is unipolar; India's impact is limited because of its failure to play leadership and custodianship roles. It does serve as a protector of the region from external threats, doing so through a unilateral, status quo, and reactive orientation. Application of this framework points to a lack of a hegemonic security order in South Asia, in spite of India's self-view as the region's natural hegemon. For India to be hegemonic, it would have to play these roles in a comprehensive manner.     

Neomercantilism and Energy Interdependence: Russian Strategies in East Asia

Abstract

This article examines the potential for Russia's Siberian and Far East energy projects to create webs of interdependence with the major energy-importing countries of East Asia. Energy policy toward Asia is analyzed with reference to Europe's problematic energy dependence on Russia, where Moscow has supported attempts by state-owned companies like Gazprom to extend control over energy supply and distribution. This analysis finds that Moscow's neomercantilist energy strategy, designed to advance Russian state power, has been marginally more successful with the weaker, more energy-dependent states of Japan and South Korea. China, Asia's major rising power, is more sensitive to the prospect of becoming too dependent on Russia as a supplier of oil and gas, because dependence could constrain Beijing's global ambitions.     

A critical understanding of good governance and leadership concepts written in the context of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) and the challenges to contextual discourse on Africa's development paradigms1

ABSTRACT

Good governance is a value-laden concept that is characteristically nebulous; it can mean different things to different people, depending on the context in which it is used. The same applies to leadership. Concepts, as Pauw (1999a, 465) puts it, are ‘tools of thinking’ and contexts are ‘the environments or frameworks in which they [concepts] operate’. Lucidity in the meanings of concepts is fundamentally important for shaping debate and enriching discourses. To maintain their power, concepts must be used in their proper contexts. This necessitates an understanding of the art of contextual discourse. Good governance is used in NEPAD as a principle and emphasised as a sine qua non for sustainable development in Africa. On the other hand, NEPAD premises Africa's re-birth or Renaissance on good governance and leadership, with a vision and commitment to repositioning the continent in global power balances. In this article good governance and leadership are considered as concepts. NEPAD is a textual context within which the two key concepts are used and should, consequently, be engaged. The article attempts a critical review of African scholarship engagement with good governance and leadership within the NEPAD context to determine the extent to which contextual discourse is practised. It further grapples with the immediate historical background to scholarship on Africa's development between the 1960s and early 1990s. The exercise reveals that much of the accumulated body of African scholarship and scholarship on Africa's development reviewed does not suffciently contextualise discourse on good governance and leadership within NEPAD, and its key assessment and monitoring device, the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), and offers an alternative framework.     

WHEN WAL-MART WIMPED OUT

Abstract

This article offers one China analyst's perspective on a variety of questions related to the unionization of all sixty-six Wal-Mart outlets in China. Why did China force Wal-Mart to unionize? If, as Marx, paraphrasing Hegel, wrote, “all great world-historic facts and personages appear, so to speak, twice,” is Mao making his comeback? Or if, as Marx immediately continued in his own right, “He forgot to add: the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce,” is Hu Jintao playing Louis Bonaparte to Mao's Napoleon? Is the Chinese state acting out of a new level of confidence that it can now challenge the world's most prepossessing corporate giants in order to make good on its communist commitments? Is it running scared in the face of a working class that has at last managed to score a victory? Or is it actually strengthening its power through time-honored tactics of mass organizational control that have not really changed despite the new market context? Are China's workers being protected, empowered, or co-opted and subjected to new forms of state control? And why did one of the world's most militantly antiunion corporations go along? Did they have a choice? Did they fear China's state-run union federation? And finally, what does all this portend for the future of labor relations in China?     

The Evolution of Chinese Foreign Policy: New Incentives with Slowing Growth

Abstract

Rising powers such as the People's Republic of China (PRC) experience two distinct stages of relative capability growth. China is currently in the first stage of growth, which is defined by increasingly rapid expansion and incentives for foreign policy accommodation. As the PRC shifts to the second stage, however, relative growth will slow, and leaders in Beijing will be presented with new incentives for foreign policy confrontation. This article formalizes a two-stage model of relative power growth and argues that China's shift to the second stage of growth will threaten regional and global stability. During this shift, the key to international security will be a coordinated, multilateral effort that responsibly balances China's growing power with a similarly expanded international role for China.     

Building Neo-liberal Markets and Other Agendas: The Politics of Risk Management at AusAID

Abstract

This article analyses emerging approaches by donors to risk management, focusing on the case of the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID). It suggests that AusAID's understanding and management of risk are expressions of particular political and social interests and, subsequently, that its approach to risk management is inherently political in nature. While AusAID's policies and guidelines on risk management identify a wide range of risks as being relevant to the agency's work – including risks to poverty reduction and sustainable development – in practice it has focused on managing risks to the building of neo-liberal markets, both within Australia and in developing countries, and the Australian government's foreign policy objectives. To illustrate these points, we present an analysis of AusAID's approach to risk management in a major economic governance project, the Philippines-Australia Partnership for Economic Governance Reforms. We conclude by indicating ways in which donor approaches to risk management can be revised to give greater attention to the needs of the poor and civil society, while acknowledging that such revisions may be contingent upon prior changes in the structure of power and interest and/or institutional characteristics of aid policy-making processes in donor countries.     

RETHINKING AFRICAN SEXUALITIES IN THE CONTEXT OF HIV AND AIDS: THE LIFE AND DEATH DISCOURSE OF ‘MODERNISED POLYGAMY’ IN SUE NYATHI'S THE POLYGAMIST

ABSTRACT

This article is a study of Sue Nyathi's novel The Polygamist as a cultural production dealing with African modern polygamy1 in the context of HIV and AIDS. What is termed ‘modern polygamy’ in this article is a practice where men have several ‘wives’ but not in the African traditional sense, especially within the Shona culture, but in the sense of what is popularised as a ‘small house’ phenomenon. Nyathi's novel is discussed within the following frameworks corresponding to the three distinct parts of the article. In the first part of the discussion, the dichotomy between economic/ social status and ‘modern polygamy’ is explored. The second part of the discussion is a gendered perspective of ‘modern’ polygamy and particularly highlights gender constructions in Nyathi's representation of ‘modern’ polygamy. In the last section, multiple sexual relations and HIV and AIDS are discussed. Significantly, the article demonstrates that imaginative literature is a cultural site that can help us understand human behaviour and HIV and AIDS; particularly in what in religious terms would be referred to as ‘old testament’ polygamy that poses a danger to health and the social fabric in its new form in modern Zimbabwean society.     

Living in the Marikana world: The state,capital and society

Abstract

The ‘Marikana massacre’ that happened on 16 August 2012 at Lonmin mine near Rustenburg in the North-West province of South Africa, in which the South African police shot dead 34 mineworkers for protesting against low wages and other unbearable employment and/or living conditions, cannot be understood as merely an accidental event. It may therefore be useful to view the massacre as one of those tragedies that dramatises, in visible ways, the generally hellish conditions which the peoples of the non-Western world have come to endure ever since the advent of Western modernity. The ‘voyages of discovery’ undertaken by figures such as Christopher Columbus after 1492 marked the commencement of a world system characterised by a Western-centred modernity whose ‘darker side’ inflicted hellish conditions on the non-Western subject, while its ‘brighter side’ in the West saw positive developments – from the 16^th-century ‘rights of people’ to the 18^th-century ‘rights of man’, up to the late-20^th-century ‘human rights’. This article is a decolonial critique on the Marikana massacre and seeks to explain how the modern world system has, since its advent in 1492 as global power structure, been producing a series of ‘Marikana-like’ conditions and events on the part of the non-Western subject that underlies its hierarchical arrangement. The article's point of departure is that rather than understand the Marikana massacre as a unique event or accident, it can better be characterised as a sign of the non-Western subject's subjection to Western-centred modernity. The article explicates how the modern South African state and capital are part of the same ‘colonial power matrix’ (Quijano 2000a), hence the two were bound to be on the same side against labour during the Marikana massacre.     

Obama's Pacific Pivot in US Grand Strategy: A Canadian Perspective

Abstract

This article explores the possible long-term trajectory of America's “pivot” to the Asia-Pacific and its implications for Canada's security policy. It shows that Obama's pivot represents the beginnings of a strategic choice on “selective primacy,” which, due to Washington's worrisome fiscal situation and push towards a more specialized force structure, promises to only deepen in the future. In the second half of the article, I examine how Canada will likely respond to America's more sustained strategic adjustment to the Pacific based on a reading of how the country traditionally adapts to American strategic preferences. The article concludes with some thoughts on an expanded Canadian effort at maritime diplomacy and the future of a Pacific-centric Royal Canadian Navy.