Not Enough Pieces of the Cake? The Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) in the Mindanao Final Agreement

Abstract

Civil wars frequently end with the signature of a peace agreement, which often includes power-sharing provisions. While most research focuses on their provisions, little research has been done on the question of how the content of peace agreements affects the groups signing them. Instead, research commonly depicts the conflict parties as unitary actors. This study tries to fill this research gap by asking how the content and implementation of the Mindanao Final Agreement affected the cohesion of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). The analysis concludes that the implementation of power sharing is decisive. The failed inclusion and the low implementation of economic and territorial provisions had major effects on the cohesion of the MNLF.     

A Conceptual Analysis of the Six-Party Talks: Building Peace through Security Assurances

Abstract

Dissuading proliferators from developing nuclear weapons entails application of the global nonproliferation norm. Insomuch as proliferators' motivations to develop nuclear weapons are embedded in regional security concerns, security assurances taken for nuclear disarmament would include measures addressing these regional security concerns. Such measures are compatible with the need not to motivate other proliferators to develop nuclear weapons. The September 2005 Joint Statement of the Six-Party Talks incorporated a pledge to build a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, which demonstrated the link between the regional undertakings and North Korea's denuclearization process. North Korea's nuclear test is no doubt a deviation from the document and the international community must retain collective sanctions. However, building a peace regime remains an effective means for defusing the nuclear standoff.     

BURMA'S ETHNIC MINORITIES

Abstract

The nearly 60-year-long fight by Burma's ethnic minorities for autonomy and ethnic rights lies at the root of the country's broader political and humanitarian crisis. Yet, in the outside world, this issue is often subsumed under the better-known struggle for democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy. The present article seeks to redress this imbalance by directing attention to the numerous groups representing ethnic minority interests, the grievances and aspirations that motivate their struggle, and their own strategies for peace. It argues that in Burma's deeply divided society peace and democracy are two distinct challenges, even if in the long term they must go together, and it calls for the international community to help the country's ethnic groups prepare for future peace negotiations and overcome the debilitating legacy of war.     

Short term interests,long term perspectives: Balancing South Africa's peace and security approach in the EU–SA Strategic Partnership

ABSTRACT

South Africa’s peace and security outlook in the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership has been guided by the content and substance of the founding document, which incorporates an interdependent approach to development. For South Africa, engagement in the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership is framed by its historical background, its identity and the content of its foreign policy. South Africa's foreign policy in particular adopts an integrated approach to securing the state within its surrounding regional and continental geography. This article reviews South Africa's approach to peace and security, in the context of the strategic partnership. The article argues that, overall, South Africa's definition of peace and security is compatible with that of the EU; however, Pretoria's vision of how it provides peace and security has naturally changed in line with the varying international circumstances in which it has found itself. While this has proved difficult at times to reconcile, peace and security collaboration in the strategic partnership has managed to remain intact.     

Biting the Fishhook

Abstract

For a long time after his abdication from the throne in 1955 and his subsequent rise to power as Chief of State, Norodom Sihanouk's main problem in governing Cambodia was how to deflect political breezes from the sails of the internal leftist-Communist opposition. In the last year and a half, that problem changed to one of how to upstage his political rivals on the right. His defeat in the latter enterprise signals the demise of peace in the only Indochinese nation successful in the last fifteen years in preventing war and strife from sweeping across its borders.     

The Eye of the beholder: Background notes on the US-Japan military relationship

Abstract

In the last half century, the pivotal steps in American-Japanese relations have been paced off at roughly ten-year intervals. At the Washington Conference of 1921-1922, American and other Western pressure brought about cancellation of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance and forced Japan to rely upon uncertain international guarantees for its security. The Manchurian Incident of 1931 dispelled the professed hopes of the twenties, and a full decade later Pearl Harbor marked the total bankruptcy of Japan's relationship with the West. At the San Francisco peace conference in 1951, America led forty-eight other nations in restoring Japan's sovereignty, and five hours after the signing of the peace treaty the U.S. summoned forth shades of the old Anglo-Japanese Alliance by signing its own bilateral military pact with Japan. Nine years later, nationalistic resentment against this security arrangement of 1951 erupted in Japan, forcing cancellation of President Eisenhower's proposed visit. Now another decade has passed, and 1970 is clearly destined to mark yet another watershed in the American-Japanese relationship.     

阿拉伯国家在菲南和平进程中的作用

在菲南和平进程的两个阶段中,阿拉伯国家的角色经历了两次转变:从摩洛穆斯林的支持者转为双方谈判的中介人,从停火协议的维护者转为全面和平的推动者.它们成功地促成菲南局势从战乱转向和谈、从纸上和平转向实际和平,并促使菲南由局部和平向全面和平过渡.阿拉伯国家所以能发挥这样的作用,原因在于它们拥有影响冲突双方的实力、公正解决冲突的立场以及由菲律宾的灵活外交策略促成的相互间的良性互动关系.     

The regional outcome of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement five years down the road: Are external forces playing a progressive role?

ABSTRACT

The Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of January 2005 is the outcome of regional and international mediation led by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD)1 and the IGAD Partners’ Forum broadened to include the United States of America, Norway, the Netherlands, Canada, Italy and the United Nations. Five years into its implementation the peace agreement appears to have transformed the war between North and South Sudan into a series of engagements of conflicting nature. Numerous contradictory actions by both the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the National Congress Party (NCP) (the main political forces behind the CPA) have been noted during the ongoing implementation process (Grawert forthcoming 2010; Grawert and El-Battahani 2005; Wassara 2008). Although internal Sudanese forces are the key actors in implementing the CPA, external forces are critical in providing the support and pressure needed for a complete realisation of the peace deal. The New Regionalism Approach (NRA), as advanced by Grant and Soderbäum (2003), is instrumental in understanding this dynamic. This article is based on the result of a study that seeks to examine why positive engagements of external forces are needed for a timely implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.     

The undoing of a unique relationship? Peace and security in the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership

ABSTRACT

When the European Union (EU) and South Africa acceded to a strategic partnership, they expanded into new areas of partnership. One of these areas was peace and security, which is the focus of this article. The article argues that, although there appears to be a shared understanding of what security means, the strategic partnership has not been utilised significantly to further this understanding in practice. This is largely due to the EU's preferences for a continental, multilateral approach over the bilateralism of a strategic partnership. At the same time, South Africa sees its strategic partnership with the EU as being outside of its broader commitment to regional security. As a result the peace and security element of the strategic partnership has not been leveraged effectively despite several entry points for action. The article thus concludes that both the EU and South Africa need to re-think the current arrangement.     

The International Criminal Court and the Darfur crimes: The dilemma of peace and supra-national criminal justice

ABSTRACT

The supra-national criminal prosecution by the International Criminal Court (ICC) of the alleged crimes committed in Darfur raises critical legal and conceptual issues. This article addresses the dilemma of peace, justice and reconciliation from a legal perspective, as well as the justice options that are available. The article also assesses the Sudan's criminal and military laws (both at the substantive and procedural levels) in terms of the country's ability to prosecute international crimes such as war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. In this respect, the article argues that these laws fall short of international criminal law standards and principles – particularly the amendments introduced after the United Nations Security Council referred the Darfur situation to the ICC. The article critically examines the Sudan government's policy of non-engagement, which ultimately led to supra-national criminal prosecution (represented by the ICC intervention under the complementarity principle of the Rome Statute). Finally, the article interrogates the report issued by the African Union High-Level Panel on Darfur (AUPD), and evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of its recommendations.     

Statement on peace and reunification of the Korean Peninsula

Abstract

We who have been praying and working for peace and the reunification of Korea would like to express our deep concerns about the rising tensions surrounding the north Korean nuclear controversy and the potentially imminent war on the Korean peninsula. We still remember vividly the nightmare of the Korean War beginning 25 June 1950, and we have endured tremendously painful experiences for the last half century because of the division of our country. We would like to express our positions to the governments of the Republic of Korea (ROK), the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), the United States, and to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as we firmly believe that the shortest route to reunification is through the reconciliation and solidarity of the Korean people:     

Old and new Korean wars

Abstract

As I write this we have come off one week when it looked as if we might have another war in Korea, and the next week when peace broke out between Washington and Pyongyang as a result of Jimmy Carter's meetings with Kim Il Sung. This pattern of crisis followed by relaxation has lasted at least since the spring of 1993, when North Korea threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. During the entire period most Americans and especially our print and television media have demonstrated that they have no understanding of the terrible destructiveness of the Korean War—and therefore they easily conjure up a new one. Indeed, talk of a new war in Korea is casual and almost routine in the United States.     

Peacekeeping in a Francophone Space: Experiences of Ghanaian Peacekeepers in Côte d’Ivoire

Abstract

This article adds historical and empirical insights to the ongoing global debate on peace operations in francophone contexts, by providing a historical analysis of Ghana’s participation in francophone peacekeeping operations, with a special focus on Côte d’Ivoire. It investigates the interrelationship between anglo-francophone African peace operations and its implications for negotiating colonial discourses and barriers and as a means to promoting deeper regional integration. The paper argues that the fundamental reasons behind the difficulties experienced by Ghanaian peacekeepers in francophone peacekeeping theatres, especially in the case of Côte d’Ivoire, resulted from the differences in culture, language, ethnic proximity and regional politics. We demonstrate in our discussions that solving the language problem, for instance, will foster better understanding and cooperation, but also fast-track and contribute to effective regional peacekeeping efforts and facilitate the establishment of the elusive regional standby force.     

Mbeki and the peace process in Africa: A contribution to Africa's renaissance

Abstract

Critics of South African President Thabo Mbeki's constant, consistent and continuous involvement in the continental wars and conflicts insist that the president's prime focus should be South Africa, and solving its basic problems of poverty and unemployment. However, it is important to highlight the duel relationship between South Africa and the continent during the long struggle against apartheid. Mozambique, Angola, and in part Zimbabwe, Zambia, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland are what they are now because of the reign of terror unleashed on them as a result of their direct support to the South African liberation movements. The poverty and starvation apparent in Angola and Mozambique were perpetrated by the white minority regime's constant bombing of, and acts of violence against these two countries, and direct support of the anti‐government forces. As for the South African liberation movements, they continued to exist and function mainly because of the support offered to them by their independent African brothers. It must be realised that without this support, which for some countries was very costly (i.e., economically, socially and psychologically), liberation would not have come when it did. It has fallen on the shoulders of the newly liberated South Africa to try and intervene in the wars that cause instability on the continent and to try to bring about peace.     

Legacy of the past,promise of the future: Land reform,land grabbing,and land conversion in the Calabarzon

Abstract

Rather than viewing the recent violence in the Thai South largely as a product of long-standing historical and socioeconomic grievances, this article argues that the government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has played a crucial role in provoking conflict in the region. Early in his premiership, Thaksin decided that the South was controlled by forces of “network monarchy” loyal to the palace and to former prime minister Prem Tinsulanond. Thaksin sought to reorganize political and security arrangements in the deep South in order to gain personal control of the area, but in the process he upset a carefully negotiated social contract that had ensured relative peace for two decades. As the violence increased, royal displeasure — articulated mainly by members of the Privy Council — forced Thaksin to make certain concessions, notably the creation of a National Reconciliation Commission to propose solutions for the growing crisis. Network monarchy had struck back, albeit from a position of weakness. This analysis seeks to demonstrate that the southern violence is actually inextricable from wider developments in Thailand's national politics.     

ASIAN WAR MACHINES

ABSTRACT

The South Asian security landscape is increasingly dominated by a complex four-way dynamic between India, Pakistan, China, and the United States. The stresses and strains of the relationships between these states directly affect the prospects for peace and prosperity for almost half of humanity. This article describes some of the military contours of this landscape, with a focus on strategic postures, weapon acquisitions, and the role of nuclear weapons. It maps the India–Pakistan arms race over the past decade, the economic constraints on the two states, the role of China and the United States as weapons suppliers, and the risk and consequences for nuclear war. The authors then look at India's relationship with China, which is marked by both cooperation and competition, and the rise of China as a close military, political, and economic ally of Pakistan. While the United States has had long-standing cooperative relationships with both India and Pakistan, these relationships have been undergoing major shifts over the last two decades. U.S. concerns about China's increasing military and economic power have also intensified over this period as well. Of particular significance has been the effort to create a U.S.–India strategic partnership to balance and contain a rising China, which may become a central feature of the emerging global order. This article also offers a brief overview of what is publicly known about the nuclear arsenals of the four countries, ongoing production of weapons-usable fissile materials in Pakistan and India, as well as the race to build longer-range missiles.     

Leathernecks in North China, 1945

Abstract

The decisive phase of the Chinese Civil War is said to have begun during the summer of 1946, hardly a year after the Japanese surrender and about six months after General George Marshall went to China to assist the Kuomintang and the communists in negotiating toward a peaceful settlement of their conflict. The failure of the Marshall Mission and the subsequent communist victory is often seen as America’s failure–the failure of liberal democracy to provide an alternative to communism and revolution and the failure of the American war aim–to establish lasting peace and stability in Asia. But even before Marshall’s arrival in China, the united States had actively intervened on behalf of the Kuomintang and undermined possibilities for a negotiated political settlement in China.     

The Lansdowne “Peace Letter” of 1917 and the Prospect of Peace by Negotiation with Germany

In late November 1917, Lord Lansdowne, one of the most senior of British Unionist politicians, wrote a letter to the editor of the Daily Telegraph. The letter asked for the war aims of the Entente and the USA to be “coordinated” and suggested that a moderate revision of war aims might bring a negotiated peace nearer. The letter appeared to ally Lansdowne with the British Radicals, who had been close to President Wilson (until April 1917), and had argued for a negotiated peace to end the war since the autumn of 1916. The letter was ferociously denounced by the Northcliffe press, and by many of Lansdowne's Unionist colleagues. It was supposedly a “plea for surrender” and “a national misfortune”. Nevertheless, it touched off a series of new departures in the search for a negotiated settlement: House's visit to the inter Allied Conference in December, the Labour War Aims Memorandum, Lloyd George's Caxton Hall speech, Wilson's Fourteen Points Address, and the beginning of a public parley with the Central Powers in the replies of Hertling and Czernin in January 1918. The paper examines the possibilities for a negotiated peace during the winter of 1917–1918, that is, in the period between the publication of Lansdowne's famous letter and the sudden Versailles “Knockout Blow” Declaration of February 1918 which rejected out of hand any prospect of negotiation. The paper examines Wilson's ambiguous position in this debate, and in particular the evolution of moderate opinion inside Germany in reaction to these events. The paper suggests the unfortunate enfeeblement of moderate opinion in Germany in the face of the apparent triumph of “knockout blow” opinion in the Entente camp.     

Two postscripts to the McCarran hearings

Abstract

For nearly three decades following World War II Japan was officially considered to be America's newly befriended and unthreatening client in East Asia. Today that is no longer entirely true. A major change is underway in the justifying ideology and the imagery surrounding the US relationship with Japan. Bureaucrats, businessmen, journalists, and academics now portray Japan provocatively to the American public as a direct threat to the viability of America's key economic institutions. To understand why this shift in the official perception and evaluation of Japan is occurring, and what a change in the dominant ideological teaching about postwar Japan portends, I will focus first on two successive periods—the 1970s and the early 1980s—during which the US-Japan bilateral relationship reflected important changes in the world economy and the US position within it. Then, after having described the environment within which US-Japan frictions have been working themselves out, I shall argue that influential ruling elites in the United States are now coming around to the view that the new challenge confronting US global hegemony is the narrowing technological gap between the US and its main industrial competitors. This will lead me to say a few words about the different forces acting to shape science and technology in the United States and Japan. Finally, I shall conclude by recommending what may be a more rational approach for Japan to take in the international arena if it still wishes to preserve its “peace constitution” into the next century.     

China: A function of the Japan‐US alliance

China's greatest future strategic concern is the Japan‐US alliance. Hisahiko Okazaki argues that a strong alliance limits China's foreign policy options, and stresses the importance of Japan and the US working together to establish a foreign policy towards China that will promote peace in the region. Okazaki was born in Dalian, China, in 1930. He served in Japan's Foreign Ministry, holding such posts as minister to the United States, chief of the ministry's Information Analysis, Research and Planning Bureau, and was ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Thailand. This article is adapted from an article first published in August 1995 in The Daily Yomiuri and is printed with the permission of the author.