U.S. Initiative to Place Weapons in Space: The Catalyst for a Space-Based Arms Race with China and Russia

The United States must ensure sustainability and stability in space by protecting its satellites to safeguard national security and economic vitality. Concerns for obtaining this security are mounting, as U.S. satellites are increasingly vulnerable to developing threats from adversaries. This article proposes that the United States will eventually initiate the weaponization of space to defend its space systems and supporting infrastructure. The consequence for such an initiative will manifest a pronounced counteraction from China and Russia, the key spacefaring adversaries of the United States. Such a counteraction will consist of a space-based arms race, as each nation will jockey to position itself as the dominant power in space.     

A FAST-FOLLOWING SPACE CONTROL STRATEGY

This article analyzes South Africa's space program, which can be divided into three chronological periods. First, was the age of amateurs that took place from 1947–1962. Second, from 1963–1993, South Africa's apartheid regime started various missile projects, including a secret military space launch program aimed at orbiting reconnaissance satellites. Under U.S. Government pressure, this was canceled before the first democratically-elected government came to power in South Africa, and the facilities for manufacturing and static testing the space launch vehicle were destroyed. But, South Africa maintains a nucleus of space heritage infrastructure, including a space launch range with telemetry capabilities, satellite testing, and integration facilities, and aerospace and software industrial sectors. Third, South Africa became a democracy in 1994, and established the legal and institutional infrastructure for a civil space program. Since then, South Africa has started to shape a new space policy, this time with greater public transparency.     

Chinese Capabilities as a Global Space Power

Since the early 1960s, China has been enhancing national power and, in this regard, Chinese space capabilities play a pivotal role. Today, China is second among spacefaring counties, behind the United States, as a measure of human spaceflight, as well as in commercial and military satellite systems. Chinese space technology, in contrast to developed nations, is comparatively cost-effective; China is sharing it with developing nations for their space programs, consequently expanding the pool of spacefaring states. Most significantly, China’s nuclear, military, and space capabilities provide it with an opportunity to reassert itself as a global power, enhancing its strategic outreach and preventing adversaries from contemplating strategies against it.     

How to read Michelle Obama

ABSTRACT

Michelle Obama's role as the first African American First Lady is more than merely symbolic. Her self-representation as a professional woman, mother and spouse is directed towards a wider representativeness that is new in American political discourse. As a descendant of slaves and slave owners whose American ancestry can be traced back to the 1850s, she can lay claim to an African American legacy that the President lacks. As a result, some of her more controversial statements during the presidential campaign about the black family, class mobility and national pride need to be read in the context of an African American literature and historiography that challenges the American creed of equality, liberty and unconditional love of one's country. Michelle Obama's family history, her Princeton undergraduate thesis and her own words in interviews are analysed here in the discursive context of Ralph Ellison's Invisible Man, Toni Morrison's Beloved, Richard Powers's The Time of Our Singing, and Harriet Jacobs's Incidents in the Life of a Slave-girl, as well as the historiography of the civil rights movement. Such a reading reveals how Michelle Obama's background weaves the legacy of slavery into the American fabric, and shows that a redemptive construction of American history—in which the success of the civil rights movement of the 1960s and the Obama presidency are taken as fulfilment of the American creed (and of Martin Luther King's dream)—must be refused if a new national self-definition with African America at its heart is to take its place.     

The Dynamic American Dream

The American Dream is central to the national ethos, reflecting people's optimism that all who are willing to work hard can achieve a better life than their parents. Separate from the support for the idea of the American Dream itself is whether the public believes it is attainable. We consider the origins and dynamics of the public's belief in the achievability of the American Dream. Is the American Dream a symbolic vision, rooted in political socialization rather than contemporary politics? Or does optimism about the American Dream follow from the viability of the dream, rising with economic prosperity and falling with declining opportunity? We develop a new macrolevel measure of belief in the American Dream from 1973 to 2018. We show that it moves over time, responsive to changes in social mobility, income inequality, and economic perceptions. As inequality increases, belief in the attainability of the American Dream declines.     

The strategy of responsive space

This article explores the utility of responsive space in the context of the strategies of Sun Tzu, Mahan, Corbett and John Boyd. Responsive launch is important to applying military strategy to space for achieving space control and in protecting the space systems which are part of the United States's critical infrastructure. It follows that if responsive launch is important in achieving military strategic objectives and protecting the national critical infrastructure, implementing responsive launch must also drive changes in satellite design and operational concepts. The article discusses some of these possible changes resulting from the implementation of a doctrine of responsive launch.     

Viewpoint: Chinese Anti-Satellite Weapons: New Power Geometry and New Legal Policy

China entered the field of space weapons with the successful anti-satellite test on 11 January 2007. National policies of spacefaring states commit to the principle of peaceful uses of outer space as enshrined in the Outer Space Treaty, but there is no detailed internationally binding regulation on anti-satellite weapons. Since 1981, the United Nations General Assembly passed annual resolutions on the Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space. These resolutions call for negotiations in the Conference of Disarmament for establishing an internationally binding instrument about space weapons. However, the Conference of Disarmament is deadlocked. China's weapons test has changed the power geometry. This paper examines the policy impact of the Chinese test, especially on the United States.     

Comparative Perspective of the Brazilian and Indian Space Programs

In the early 1960s, India and Brazil started developing space capabilities covering three major complementary areas: (1) satellites; (2) launch vehicles; and (3) ground systems. More than 50 years later, India is among the most active and successful spacefaring countries and is developing cost-effective space technologies. On the other hand, Brazil still does not possess a launch system and has put into orbit only small and non-commercial satellites, several of them built with Chinese cooperation and launched on Chinese launch vehicles. The goal of this article is to compare Brazilian and Indian space programs, which present different levels of accomplishments. This analysis contains three elements. The first part discusses the two space programs’ evolutions and their contemporary features. The second part compares the space programs’ models from two observation variables: (1) the state administrative organization; and (2) international cooperation in the space sector. Finally, the third part of the article compares the strengths and challenges of each program, highlighting that an international partnership between Brazil and India in space opens a window of opportunity for Brazil to take part in a much wider range of projects than is possible if funded alone.     

Politics,Science, and Termination: A Case Study of Water Fluoridation Policy in Calgary in 2011

Policy termination is identified as a rare occurrence and thus difficult to study. However, one policy area, community water fluoridation, has seen an apparent increase in termination in recent years. We examine the specific case of termination in Calgary, Alberta in 2011 with a specific goal to apply Kingdon's Multiple Streams Approach to the policy termination framework. Our findings suggest that of key importance for the termination of water fluoridation was the impending need for an upgrade to the fluoridation infrastructure, the effectiveness of the local anti‐fluoridation activists, the speed of decision making, and a prominent framing of the issue in ethical terms. The opening of a policy window made possible by the 2010 Calgary municipal election, one that introduced a number of new members to council, as well as the presence of a policy entrepreneur who took advantage of the window's opening, were of specific importance to the success of policy termination.     

Motivations Behind Interstellar Exploration and Colonization

This article analyzes the main motivations behind manned interstellar exploration. There is a wide range of justifications for manned interstellar exploration. Some observers contend that the main reasons are the survival of the human species and the spreading of life in the universe. I argue that the survival of the human species is a very long-term threat and, as such, it is not the main driver for interstellar exploration within a reasonable time horizon. The discovery of habitable planets within 5 to 15 light years from Earth and the possibility that Earth will no longer define the limit of growth constitute stronger motivations. I argue that manned interstellar exploration will be achieved through the mobilization of both public and private resources, as in the past opening of new frontiers, with governments providing initial support in exploration and science, in advancing critical technologies, and in building space infrastructure. The private sector would then take the lead in creating new markets and in expanding humanity’s presence in space.     

Japan's export of infrastructure systems: pursuing twin goals through developmental means

This article focuses on the export of infrastructure systems as Japan's foreign economic policy that is unique in terms of diplomatic goals and means. It seeks to address how and why the Japanese government has strengthened commitments to expanding infrastructure exports to major Asian countries. This article argues that the Japanese government took advantage of developmental means of state-led initiative and institutionalised government-business collaboration in sustaining the export of infrastructure systems. It also contends that the Japanese government pursued, in the infrastructure export initiative, twin goals of creating a new growth engine to revitalise the Japanese economy and strengthening strategic links with Asian countries to balance China's regional influence.     

North Korean Space Program Legitimization Efforts: Review and Policy Recommendations

With much attention being concentrated on containing North Korean nuclear and ballistic missile programs, the North Korean space program also faces objections from the international community. This article claims that identifying North Korea’s space program developments with its ballistic missile program is unjustified and even undermines the space program’s potential for hastening a successful Korean unification. The goal of the article is to suggest a departure from a current hostile attitude toward the North Korean space program and to make alternative policy recommendations. The first part of the article focuses on a literature review of sources devoted to the North Korean space program, emphasizing the existence of alternative views of it other than the common view of it being a threat to international security. The second part describes efforts made by North Korea on the international and domestic scenes to confirm its space program’s legitimacy and make it more transparent, amidst continuing condemnations and sanctions by the United Nations, concluding with the positive dynamics of North Korean space efforts. The final part is dedicated to possible alternatives to current international policy towards the North Korean space program, underscoring a potentially mutually beneficial cooperation between North Korea and Southeast Asian prospective spacefaring nations. It is claimed that such cooperation might raise the technological level of the North Korean economy and narrow the gap between the two Korean states, offering more possibilities for eventual unification.     

A weak pillar for American national security: The CIA's dismal performance against WMD threats

American preemptive or preventive military action against WMD-armed adversaries in the future will simply not be feasible without high-quality and timely intelligence. But is American intelligence up to this load-bearing task for the post-11 September national security? This article surveys the Central Intelligence Agency's record of gauging potential WMD threats for more than a decade and assesses its overall performance as dismal. The CIA's recent intelligence debacle against Iraq was one of the greatest in a long series of failures that has publicly exposed the Agency's profound weaknesses. These intelligence failures were due in large measure to the CIA's poor human intelligence collection and shoddy analysis, areas that cannot be remedied alone by the creation of the new Director of National Intelligence post. This article recommends steps needed to increase the quality of intelligence produced by CIA, or elsewhere in the new intelligence community, to move American intelligence in lockstep with military transformation to give the Commander-in-Chief realistic options for countering hostile nation-states or terrorist groups seeking or acquiring WMD.     

Outer Space Religion and the Overview Effect: A Critical Inquiry into a Classic of the Pro-Space Movement

The Overview Effect by Frank White (1987) aims at creating a “philosophy of space” for the American space program and the pro-space movement. As such, it has become something of a classic. It describes an evolutionary process set in motion by the first astronauts venturing into space and seeing Earth from an extraterrestrial perspective. According to White, this process is guided by universal forces and ultimately leads to the universe becoming intelligent and self-aware. However, The Overview Effect has not only found readers among space enthusiasts; it has also been cited in various literature, some of it academic and dealing with historical and societal aspects of spaceflight. This article examines White's overview thesis and demonstrates that it is fundamentally religious. Thus, evidence of the presence of religion in the American pro-space movement is presented, while at the same time the use of White's thesis in academic literature is put into question.     

‘Rivers of Blood’ and Britain's Far Right

This article examines the impact of Enoch Powell's speech on Britain's numerous right‐wing fringe groups and their response—in particular, that of the National Front, who benefitted the most from Powell's intervention on race and for a brief moment became Britain's fourth political party. It begins by looking at the growth of post‐World War II British fascism and how its emphasis switched from anti‐Semitism to anti‐colonial immigration. Throughout the piece, the relationship between Britain's far right and the Conservative party is examined to show how Powell inadvertently blurred the lines between the two. The article concludes with the 1979 general election victory of Margaret Thatcher who, by adopting Powellite themes but in more measured tones, destroyed the National Front's dream of an electoral breakthrough.     

Is It Finally Time for Space Tourism?

To date, only four paying space tourists have flown, and the prospect for broad, sustainable space tourism remains a dream. This article notes that there are two types of tourists conflated by the advocates of space tourism. The first are a tiny group of adventurers with significant wealth and other resources who seek thrills and bragging rights. They have enjoyed success in using government-owned resources for their extreme tourism experience by flying on Soyuz capsules operated by Russia, and the International Space Station owned and operated by a consortium of nations as a major research station. The second group seeks more modest excursions with a minimum of risk and a smaller price tag. Only the first group has much prospect for tourism in space in the foreseeable future, but the second group is the more important, and expanding its space tourism opportunities represents the primary means of achieving the goal of opening space to the public. This article also differentiates between private sector suborbital space tourism, which may achieve reality within the next five to seven years, and the prospects for orbital space tourism, which are at least an order of magnitude more difficult and will probably require at least another generation of technological work to achieve.     

The American Presidential Election 2012: Anybody's Guess

The election of Barack Obama as President of the United States in November 2008 was an electric moment for the whole world, a shock in the course of history. The world's most powerful democracy had chosen a black man from a humble background, grandson of a Kenyan peasant who had risen to be a cook in the British Army. It was a truly amazing reaffirmation of the equal opportunity for all that is the stuff of the American dream. Shirley Williams examines the upcoming election and the players.     

After Columbia: The Space Shuttle Program and the Crisis in Space Access

The loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia on 1 February 2003 brought to the fore the sad history of the Space Shuttle's origins, evolution, operation, and the continuing challenge of space access. The crisis that emerged in human access to space because of the accident was greater than any experienced since the end of the Apollo program more than thirty years earlier. This essay explores the origins and operations of the Space Shuttle, the varied efforts to build a successor vehicle versus upgrading the shuttle fleet, and suggests that the first decade of the twenty-first century promises to offer both serious challenges and enormous potential for the development of new launch vehicles that may finally achieve the long-held dream of reliable, affordable access to space. The essay ends by asking whether or not the half-hearted quest for a shuttle replacement might not portend the demise human spaceflight for the United States.     

The Final Frontier: China,Taiwan, and the United States in Strategic Competition for Central America

China’s rise as a global power corresponded with a diminution of Taiwanese diplomacy, which has left Central America as the last region to host a continuous bloc of countries that recognize the ROC. In this article, we argue that China’s success in gaining diplomatic recognition from Taiwan’s former allies has largely resulted from China's economic policy, specifically its promises of large-scale infrastructure projects and the integration of Central American economies with Chinese markets. However, there are limits to how far China has advanced in gaining full recognition from the region. The competing political and economic interests of China, Taiwan, the United States, and the Central American countries themselves, continue to influence patterns of diplomatic switching. More specifically, we argue that the threat of punitive measures from the United States combined with a turn in Taiwanese diplomacy toward assistance efforts to combat Covid-19 may deter future switching in the short to medium-term. Our analysis offers case studies of four Central American countries (Costa Rica, Panama, El Salvador and Nicaragua) to illustrate the multi-year processes by which China’s economic strategy leads to diplomatic switching and examine the paths ahead for the remaining holdouts facing the prospect of economic and political penalties by the United States.

     

Thailand: an old relationship renewed

The relationship between Thailand and China has been both long and complicated, with periods of conflict associated with, for example, the cold war. In recent years, and especially following the Asian Economic Crisis, there has been a blossoming of the relationship, built on careful diplomacy, a renewal of interest in ethnicity and expanding business dealings and rising bilateral investment. In the contemporary period, the relationship has reached a new high. Since Thailand's military junta came to power in 2014, China has been a significant diplomatic, economic and strategic partner. Part of the explanation for this has to do with the junta's inability to deal with the USA following the coup. This article suggests that the turn to China has much to do with Thailand's turbulent domestic politics. In examining this bilateral relationship, this article addresses issues related to infrastructure, business and trade, military co-operation and cultural relations.