National Role Conceptions,Domestic Constraints and the New ‘Normalcy’ in German Foreign Policy: the Eurozone Crisis,Libya and Beyond

German foreign policy can fruitfully be analysed through the lens of a modified two-level framework which identifies three interdependent drivers behind government decision making: the expectations of Germany's international partners, domestic constraints and the national role conceptions of decision-makers. In recent years, the configuration of these three drivers has witnessed a two-fold change. First, there has been a nascent shift towards the role conception of Germany as a ‘normal ally’. Second, the domestic context of German foreign policy has become more politicised and contentious. In consequence, Germany's current foreign policy tends to attach relatively less weight to the expectations of its allies, to be more driven by domestic politics – and to be altogether less predictable. The widely criticised approaches of the Merkel government to the Eurozone crisis and to the NATO mission in Libya, in turn, accord to this pattern and stand for the new ‘normalcy’ in German foreign policy.     

Taiwan: An Internal Affair! How China’s Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy Interact on the Taiwan Issue?

Taiwan may be an internal affair but the domestic public opinion is not invited to participate very much in a debate and a decision-making process that have remained confined to the Chinese Communist Party and the military top leadership and, on purpose, involves a very small number of officials and experts. Conservative and nationalist forces do constrain Beijing’s Taiwan policy. And some leaders are tempted to use the Taiwan issue for unrelated domestic or foreign policy purpose. Nevertheless, what is striking is the potential for flexibility in China’s Taiwan policy. While Chinese local governments and companies’ increasing interests in business-as-usual in the Strait and the unbearable cost of any armed conflict tend to narrow the government’s options, concentration of power and the efficiency of the propaganda machine allow it to rather smoothly manage, in particular vis-à-vis the elites’ conservative opinion group as well as its own public opinion, this flexibility.     

Turmoil in the Taiwan Strait: Wellington Koo and ROC Foreign Policy 1953–1956

Turmoil in the Taiwan Strait addresses Ambassador Wellington Koo's role in Chinese foreign policy from 1953 to 1956 and his relevance in the larger Cold War context. In particular, it focuses on Koo's involvement in the 1954 Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and the 1955 Dachen Islands Crisis. This paper argues that, although Koo accomplished a fair amount during this time, he would have encountered fewer professional obstacles had he not represented Chiang Kai-Shek, who had become a controversial figure by the mid-1950s. At the same time, one can conclude that Koo creatively used media and meetings with statesmen abroad to shore up support for the Republic of China during this turbulent decade. This article attempts to provide another perspective on Koo, who has traditionally been understudied in the West. Furthermore, this work seeks to add a meaningful contribution to the historiography on cross-strait relations—particularly in the contemporary era.     

Lessons Learned? German Security Policy and the War in Afghanistan

The mission in Afghanistan revealed fundamental shortcomings, inconsistencies and contradictions of core elements of German security policy. In an effort to contribute to the debate about the factors that account for the idiosyncrasies of German security policy, the purpose of this study is to assess how far Germany learned lessons from its policy failures in Afghanistan. The study introduces a typology of learning, which is mainly based on the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF); delineates the German security policy belief system; and explores two prominent cases of policy failure: the deployment of the Bundeswehr and leadership of the international police training mission. Utilising different sources of data, the study confirms assumptions of the ACF about the stability of core beliefs and shows that the lack of precise policy objectives was a significant barrier to learning. Instead of clarifying Germany's strategic viewpoint, Afghanistan has further enhanced its disorientation in security policy.     

Colombian Foreign Policy and the Spanish Civil War, 1936–1939 (Blakemore Prizewinner for 2020)

The Spanish civil war saw two different Liberal presidencies in Colombia. Contrary to common belief, they did not follow a unified policy towards Spain but instead faced different parameters for action which shaped their response. These policies, in turn, illuminate both the internal dynamics of the two administrations and how they conceived of Colombia's position on the world stage. By providing the national, international and wider structural contexts, this article will therefore use the Spanish conflict to shine a spotlight on the Santos and López governments and the development of Colombian foreign policy during the late 1930s.     

Jewish and Christian Sanctity under Israeli Sovereignty: Mount Zion,King David's Tomb and the Last Supper Room (1948–1967)

Abstract

The article discusses the status of the Room of the Last Supper and King David's tomb – the two central holy sites located on Mount Zion, south of the old city of Jerusalem – in the period between 1948 and 1967. The purpose of the article is to examine the way the State of Israel treated those sites: a Jewish holy site and a Christian holy site located one above the other. The status of these holy sites during this period has wider implications for the broader picture of the Jewish and Christian holy sites developed and controlled by Israel during these years. It raises questions about the Israeli attitude towards Christian holy sites in Israel in general and in Western Jerusalem in particular.     

Yitzhak Rabin,the Ambassador to Washington, 1968–73: A Diplomat and Policy Maker

Rabin differed considerably from the average ambassador – a representative receiving and issuing reports. He viewed himself not only as a diplomat, but as capable of shaping policy with respect to both the Arab–Israeli conflict and the relationship with the United States. During his term as ambassador to Washington he displayed sober realism with regard to the political, and to some extent the military, reality – the very realism that was absent from the government that sent him.     

Man on the Spot: Captain George Gracey and British Policy towards the Assyrians, 1917–45

Oman Since 1856: Disruptive Modernization in a Traditional Arab Society. By Robert Geran Landen. Pp. xvi+488. Tables, maps, bibliography, index. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press; London: Oxford University Press. 100s.

Oman: A History. By Wendell Phillips. Pp. xiv+246. Illustrations, maps, appendices, index. London: Longmans, 63s.

British Interests in the Persian Gulf. By Abdul Amir Amin. Pp. vi+164. Map, appendices, bibliography. Leiden: E. J. Brill, 36 guilders.

Lords of the Atlas. The Rise and Fall of the House of Glaoua 1893–1956. By Gavin Maxwell. Pp. 318. Longmans. 1966. 50s.

Britain and the Persian Gulf, 1894–1914. By Briton Cooper Busch. Pp. x+388. Appendices. Index. University of California Press London: Cambridge University Press. 83s.

Islamic Reform, The Political and Legal Theories of Muhammad Abduh and Rashid Rida. By Malcolm H. Kerr. Pp. 223, bibliog., index. University of California Press. London: Cambridge University Press. 42s.

Political and Social Change in Modern Egypt. (Historical Studies from the Ottoman Conquest to the United Arab Republic). Edited by P. M. Holt, Pp. xx+400, index. Oxford University Press. 70s.

The Surest Path: The Political Treatise of a Nineteenth‐Century Muslim Statesman. By Leon Carl Brown. Cambridge, Mass.; Harvard Middle Eastern Monograph Series XVI. Pp. 188. Harvard University Press. London: Oxford University Press. 34s.     

The Trump Administration and Japan: Challenges and Visions for Japan’s Foreign and Security Policy in the New Era

It is possible that Donald Trump’s success in the US presidential election of November 2016 will touch off the greatest transformation in world politics since World War Two. This is because, for the first time, the presidency of the United States—a country that since World War Two has consistently upheld the liberal world order—has been won by a man who asserts that the US national interests will take precedence over international cooperation.

If so, Japan could be one of the most profoundly affected countries. Japan has thus far accepted its status as a junior partner within the US security framework and—without any significant military power of its own—has devoted itself to economic development.

Although it is difficult to predict what Mr. Trump’s policies will be, there is a possibility, based on the statements he has made to date, that he will be calling for Japan to become more self-reliant. Although his comprehension of the Japan-US security arrangements is fraught with misconceptions, there is ample possibility that he will ultimately opt to maintain the current Japan-US security framework. However, given that the average defense expenditure of NATO countries is 2% of their GDPs, and that the average expenditure of OECD countries on official development assistance (ODA) is 0.7% of their GDPs, it is highly questionable whether Mr. Trump will approve of Japan’s level of defense spending (less than 1% of its GDP) or of its level of spending on ODA (approximately 0.2% of its GDP).

It would not be such a bad thing for Japan to become more self-reliant in terms of security. It is almost unnatural for Japan to maintain this relationship as it is, in the form that it has taken since before Japan’s postwar reconstruction. However, in the context of international relations in East Asia, it has long been taken for granted that this is Japan’s basic stance. Changing this will be no easy task—either domestically or in terms of Japan’s relations with neighboring countries.

In these respects, the authors of this paper decided to consider the question of how Japan should develop its foreign and security policy, and to offer some proposals in this regard.     

Decoding the Evolutionary Path of Chinese Foreign Policy, 1949–2009: Assessments and Inferences

Chinese foreign policy has made a grand transition during the post-Mao reform era. Chinese foreign policy of the 21st century has become much more open and pragmatic in its relations with the outside world, more extensive in its reach and coverage, highly diversified in its functions and partners, more committed to international norms than before, and much more sophisticated in its dealing with the international community. Yet, the precise balance between the changes and continuities is still quite difficult to gauge. Furthermore, despite crucial visible changes, concerns and worries - even some fears - are discernible with regard to the rise of China. In the last 60 years, Beijing has sought hard to sustain consistencies (shizhong ruyi) in its foreign policy. Perhaps, that is the best clue the world has in inferring the future trajectory of Chinese foreign policy.     

The Policy of Strategic Demobilisation: The Social Policy of the Christian Democratic–Liberal Coalition, 2009–13

This article addresses two research questions: which course did the CDU, CSU–FDP coalition government choose to follow in social policy from 2009 to 2013? And what relationships exist between social policy in this period and the Bundestag election in 2013? The analysis of primary and secondary data reveals both continuity and discontinuity in social policy in the 17th legislative period of the Bundestag. The decisions and non-decisions on social protection and labour market regulation in this period mirror a wide variety of determinants. These include partisan effects, electoral cycles, co-governing judges and anonymous social policy of market forces. The data also suggest that the CDU/CSU has been relatively successful in its strategy of ‘asymmetric demobilisation’, the strategy of changing its social policy profile to one more similar to that of its social democratic opponent, in order to demobilise the SPD's voters rather than mobilising them. More ambivalent has been the electoral outcome of the FDP's role in social policy. The FDP's first foray into leading a large welfare state ministry, the Federal Ministry of Health, in 2009 to 2013 did not prove to be a winning proposition for the Liberals electorally. Social policy in general and welfare state recalibration in particular thus seem to be an electorally especially risky project for a liberal party such as the FDP.     

Princes,Pashas and Patriots: The Kurdish Intelligentsia,the Ottoman Empire and the National Question (1908–1914)

Abstract

This article surveys the attitude of the Ottoman-Kurdish intelligentsia and the nascent Kurdish movement towards the issue of nationality in the period between the 1908 Constitutional Revolution and the outbreak of the Great War in 1914. The existing academic literature has tended to regard the Kurdish movement in this period as being primarily cultural and apolitical in orientation. However, while the majority of the Kurdish intellectual and professional classes were committed to the Ottoman polity, their activities were far from apolitical. This is not to suggest that the emergent Kurdish movement was unified. On the contrary, the often varied relationship between the Ottoman polity and different elements of the Kurdish elite resulted in a significant degree of factionalism. However, while some of this elite began to think of the Kurds as an oppressed 'minority' locked inside the Ottoman (read Turkish) 'prison house' of nations, most tended to regard the Kurds as both a distinct people and an integral part of the Ottoman 'nation'.     

Dancing with the Wolf: Securitizing China–Taiwan Trade in the ECFA Debate and Beyond

ABSTRACT

Since Ma Ying-Jeou assumed presidency in 2008, he promoted an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) and Taiwan’s political rapprochement with China. However, the opposition party soon proposed a counter argument, claiming this agreement might produce severe negative consequences for Taiwan’s economy and sovereignty.

This study presents a securitization framework to highlight both the KMT and DPP strategy in contesting the nature of ECFA despite the potential inflation of benefit. It investigates both the KMT and DPP securitization strategies under Taiwan’s political and economic contexts. A de-securitizing discourse, though might have been a convincing counterargument against ECFA, was underdeveloped by the DPP members. It also shows how the debate shapes the discourse in the Sunflower Student Movements in 2014, and led to the DPP’s subsequent change of securitization strategy.     

Britain's Policy in Southern Kurdistan: The Formation and the Termination of the First Kurdish Government, 1918–1919

The end of the First World War and the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in 1918 signalled the downfall of the old order in the Middle East. The consolidation of Britain's strategic, economic and political position in that region was bound to affect Kurdistan's political future, given its determination to re-construct a new regional order. In the absence of a well-defined British policy towards Kurdistan's future certain British officials on the ground were able to play an important part in influencing the political situation in southern Kurdistan, which came under British political control. Therefore, the examination of Britain's policy on the ground through the concepts of indirect and direct control is central to any understanding of the reasons for the establishment and the subsequent termination of the first Kurdish government in the period 1918-1919.     

Governing Domestic Worker Migration in Southeast Asia: Public–Private Partnerships,Regulatory Grey Zones and the Household

ABSTRACT

Focussing on the example of domestic worker migration, this article seeks to explore the regulatory regimes that control the flow of migrants across Southeast Asia. Although at first glance this appears to be a deeply statist regime, the aim of this article is to complicate this picture and to look at the role that private power and authority places in shaping migration governance. The article focusses on three interrelated issues: (i) how states have increasingly come to regulate migration via partnership arrangements with private sector actors; (ii) how these partnership arrangements are emblematic of broader processes of state transformation that take shape within the complex governance practices surrounding domestic worker migration in Southeast Asia; (iii) how a focus on the micro-processes of domestic worker governance (that is, how migrant worker bodies are constructed and disciplined) also highlights the significance of private actors in this aspect of governance.     

China,the United States,and the Future of Regional Security Order—An Unhappy Coexistence

The concept of order in regional security is often characterized as hierarchical, consensus-based, or some hybrid middle-road. The debate largely focuses on how major powers, specifically China or America, can individually build an accommodating order. This article explores the causation of order-building in reverse by asking if the Sino-US relationship can create order as a by-product of individual attempts to build and manage security. It examines Chinese and American responses to North Korea and the South China Sea to demonstrate that order can be constructed through a complex set of negotiated interactions, which encompass cooperative, hierarchical, and consensus-building approaches to order-building. This “unhappy coexistence” implies that order as a by-product of state interaction is a useful but incomplete framework to understand security order-building.     

Lion in the Sand: British Policy in the Middle East, 1945–67

The crisis that unfolded after Iran's June 2009 presidential election exposed the absolutist nature of the state's highest religious authority (wali-ye faqih), Ayatullah ‘Ali Khamena'i. It also revealed the urgent need to critically interrogate Ayatullah Khomeini's doctrinal justifications for the governance of the jurist (wilayat al-faqih) in light of how ‘Ali ibn Abi Talib, the first Shi‘i Imam, assumed the caliphate: divine bestowal (nass) combined with public investiture that took the form of bay‘a (oath of allegiance). Ayatullahs Husayn ‘Ali Montazeri, Mohsen Kadivar, Yousef Saanei, Bayat Zanjani and Mehdi Karrubi have attempted to devise a model in which sovereignty belongs to the public and limits the clergy's role in daily matters of the state to oversight and guidance. In contrast, Ayatullahs Kazemeyni Boroujerdi and Mojteba Shabestari argue for a clear-cut separation between the church and the state so that the public can choose its form of government since no specific form is prescribed in Islam. On the other hand, Ayatullah Mesbah Yazdi, a member of the Assembly of Experts, has consistently been a passionate advocate of the absolute authority of the jurist in its most comprehensive form and a vehement opponent of any dissenting discourse on this subject.     

The sketch of Brazil’s grand strategy under the Workers’ Party (2003–2016): Domestic and international constraints

After passage of the 1988 Constitution of Brazil, successive democratic governments worked to build bridges between the nation’s foreign policy and its defence strategy, thus fostering a dialogue among administrations and constituencies under the aegis of the rule of law. It was under the Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff administrations that Brazil laid out a grand strategy, implementation of which was interrupted by the controversial impeachment proceedings of 2016. The argument unfolds from a consideration of Brazil’s development model and domestic politics as key structural variables in analysing the challenges faced in the conception and implementation of its grand strategy. The article is organised into two sections: (1) The sketch of a grand strategy: when Brazil’s foreign and defence policies converged; (2) An ambition frustrated? Or, the impact of Brazil’s development model and domestic politics on the conception and implementation of its grand strategy.     

Downsizing Hegemony: Alliance,Domestic Politics,and American Retrenchment in East Asia, 1969–2017

By investigating the domestic debate over the US troop reduction in Japan and South Korea for the past several decades, this article explores variation in the Asian allies’ reactions to American retrenchment. Instead of inferring regional responses solely from external security environments, this paper pays particular attention to domestic political contexts in which different political actors compete to frame the meanings and consequences of the US military presence, with implications for alliance dynamics in East Asia. I argue that along with the perceived levels of external threats, considerations of foreign policy autonomy and political legitimacy shape the ways in which the two Asian allies have responded to the US retrenchment.     

Turco-British relations,Cold War and reshaping the Middle East: Egypt,Greece and Cyprus (1954–1958)

This article tries to shed light on Turco-British relations in the early Cold War era. It focuses on the two states’ cooperation in Middle Eastern defence, as well as their interactions with Egypt and Greece. Immediately after the Second World War, the Soviet Union and communism were accepted as common threats directed against Turkey, Greece, Britain, the entire Western camp and a broad range of Middle Eastern countries. Washington and London were in search of alliances with regional actors; however, due to the anti-Western attitudes of Egypt in particular, and the anti-Israeli attitudes of the Arabic realm in general, the West was not satisfied with the defence system established in the region. In regard to the relations between the four abovementioned states, while Turkey and Britain joined forces against the Egyptian cause in the Suez issue and the Greek cause on the Cyprus issue, Greece and Egypt sided with each other against the British positions.