Lessons Learned? German Security Policy and the War in Afghanistan

The mission in Afghanistan revealed fundamental shortcomings, inconsistencies and contradictions of core elements of German security policy. In an effort to contribute to the debate about the factors that account for the idiosyncrasies of German security policy, the purpose of this study is to assess how far Germany learned lessons from its policy failures in Afghanistan. The study introduces a typology of learning, which is mainly based on the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF); delineates the German security policy belief system; and explores two prominent cases of policy failure: the deployment of the Bundeswehr and leadership of the international police training mission. Utilising different sources of data, the study confirms assumptions of the ACF about the stability of core beliefs and shows that the lack of precise policy objectives was a significant barrier to learning. Instead of clarifying Germany's strategic viewpoint, Afghanistan has further enhanced its disorientation in security policy.     

Non-Traditional Security Dilemmas: Can Military Operations other than War Intensify Security Competition in Asia?

Can seemingly benign deployments of armed forces on military operations other than war (MOOTW) – such as humanitarian relief and anti-piracy missions – exacerbate security dilemmas? The security dilemma holds a central role in international relations theory, but existing analyses overlook whether non-traditional security operations drive security competition if perceived as threatening. Despite increased MOOTW participation throughout Asia, scant attention has been paid to the broader strategic implications of these operations. This article proposes a hypothesis in which MOOTW participation exacerbates security competition by revealing military capabilities and providing states with skills that make offensive action easier. The article tests this hypothesis by process tracing events surrounding Japan’s post-3/11 earthquake response. The findings suggest that MOOTW participation intensifies long-term security competition, especially when rising powers are involved.     

Tribal or Indigenous? The Indian Dilemma

Abstract

Current Maoist struggles, resulting from deprivation of livelihood in the Central Indian tribal belt and for autonomy in Northeast India, focus on the rights of tribes who claim to be indigenous In the Northeast the demand is to be considered the ‘original’ inhabitants of the region and, in the rest of India, it is the first inhabitants of India as a whole. Most conflicts today are around identity, central to which is indigenous status and tribal sustenance. Much resource has been alienated for ‘national development’ since independence in 1947. A national failure to recognise the importance of community-based sustenance facilitates its alienation. Intensified alienation, resulting from globalisation, causes more conflicts and greater state suppression. This article discusses the link between development and indigenous status, and implications for human rights.     

Latvia, 1918–1920: A Civil War?

The post–World War I conflict that took place in Latvia between 1918 and 1920 was variously described as “struggle for freedom,” “war for liberty,” “independence war,” “civil war,” and so on. This article reviews the various concepts by discussing alternatives of statehood in Latvia. Its primary objective is to provide more evidence to the argument that the postwar conflict that took place in Latvia between 1918 and 1920 may be considered “a civil war.” By focusing on the Red and White terror campaigns, the author suggests that terror is one of the most overlooked aspects of the conflict that provides significant evidence for the perspective of “civil war.” He claims that the war was not “a class struggle,” as argued by Soviet historians, and calls for alternative explanations that would include the discussion of moral crisis, ideological conflict, ethnic and social hatred, clash of values, and the explosion of terror in Latvia.     

Can ‘Citizen in Uniform’ Survive? German Civil–Military Culture Responding to War

This article points out the role of perceptions, hereafter referred to as ‘civil– military culture’, that German society holds about the German armed forces. Analysing the discourse in German newspapers concerning Bundeswehr missions abroad since the early 1990s, and the engagement in Afghanistan in particular, it is argued that options to use the military abroad were circumscribed mainly to humanitarian tasks. This was so because German soldiers have been perceived in accordance with the official concept of a ‘citizen in uniform’, which has strong ethical implications, and consequently the Bundeswehr was seen as a humanitarian and rescue organisation. However, since the discourse in 2009 made it clear that the internalised civil–military culture no longer provides adequate guidance regarding how to approach a war-like situation such as that in Afghanistan, the entire German civil–military culture is challenged.     

Corruption or Insecurity? Understanding Dissatisfaction with Mexico's Police

Since at least 2005, Mexico has confronted a severe security crisis that threatens to undermine its rule of law and democracy. An effective police response has been hindered by frustrated citizens who do not report crime, come forward with information, serve as witnesses, or support their police. This foments a vicious cycle whereby insecurity and corruption foster dissatisfaction, which yields further insecurity and corruption. Breaking this cycle requires a better understanding of why citizens are dissatisfied with their police. One view holds that discontent is due to police corruption, but a somewhat rival perspective contends that citizens are primarily concerned with security outcomes. This study uses comparative survey data from 14 major Mexican cities to test these potentially rival approaches. It finds that both corruption and security outcomes matter, but direct experience with bribery has the single largest impact on dissatisfaction with the police.     

Cash or Combat? America’s Asian Alliances During the War in Afghanistan

Abstract

A basic trade-off in military cooperation exists: States must respond to the dominant ally’s demands and act as a reliable partner while simultaneously making a decision that is acceptable to domestic audiences. We argue that compensatory burden-sharing strategies are imperfect but dependable solutions to manage foreign policy decisions at the domestic and alliance levels. Our theoretical expectations are tested using the US-Japan and US-Republic of Korea alliances and, in particular, the contribution of each country to the war in Afghanistan. We find that foreign aid commitments to third parties are made as a form of compensation when alliance expectations are substantial, but the secondary ally's ability to contribute militarily is highly constrained. Foreign aid has therefore served as an alliance management tool.     

State fragility in Africa: Methods chasing problems or problems chasing methods in political discourse?

Abstract

The article critiques the inadequacy of the conceptions and definitions of state fragility, failure and weakness in Africa. The dominant accounts of state failure, weakness and fragility tend to look at the superficial appearance and not at the multi-causal economic, political and discursive foundations of an African state. The article argues that a deeper and alternative discourse about state failure, fragility and weakness in Africa needs to address the basic question of what the character and nature of the African state are. The article broaches this question by analysing the conceptions of state failure, fragility and weakness, and then provides a comprehensive account of the character and nature of post-colonial states in Africa. The intention here is to show that the form and content of post-colonial states in Africa have been a contested and inadequately theorised phenomenon for many years.     

Sectarian Relations in Arab Iraq: Contextualising the Civil War of 2006–2007

Discussions surrounding sectarian relations in Iraq have often been reduced to extremes of either overemphasising the Sunni-Shiʿa divide to a near Manichean level or, the other extreme, reducing them to the point of irrelevance in Iraqi history and society. This paper challenges both views and attempts an examination of the dynamics of Sunni-Shiʿa relations in Arab Iraq and how these interact with Iraqi nationalism. As will be shown, sectarian identity advances and recedes depending on wider circumstances, often at the expense, but not to the exclusion, of national identity.

The post-2003 period in general and the civil war of 2006–2007 in particular offer us a wealth of highly charged sectarian discourse in the form of songs, poems, speeches and publications. I have relied on a considerable sample of such forms of public discourse to analyse the rising salience of sectarian identity in the period under consideration in a broader attempt at analysing the dynamics of Sunni-Shi‘a relations in Arab Iraq generally. It will be seen that sectarian relations are dynamic and responsive and that civil wars are not necessarily the end of the process; rather, in some cases, sectarian civil wars are merely a violent stage which many mixed communities around the world — including Iraq perhaps — have unfortunately gone through.     

Understanding the War in Syria and the Roles of External Players: Way Out of the Quagmire?

With Western commentators, media and think tanks still being the predominant determinant of the global international relations discourse and therefore also of the discourse relating to Syria, discerning actual realities coherently from the fog of a very biased narrative presents great challenges. Deciphering the complexities of West Asia has never been easy and the situation in Syria is particularly complicated. This article argues inter alia that the Commonwealth as an entity needs to add its efforts, voice and prestige to the global effort to prioritize the restoration of peace in West Asia in general and Syria in particular.     

Great Power War: Historical Inevitability or Deterrable Choice?

Proponents of a wide range of power transition theories suggest that conflict between the United States and China is inevitable. History indicates that is not true and conflict can be deterred. A key element to that deterrence is an effective Alliance strategy. While the Obama Administration has outlined an effective deterrent national strategy, it has not provided any military strategy. Some have proposed Air Sea Battle can be that strategy. For a variety of reasons, ASB will not work. This article proposes the Alliance adopt Offshore Control as a military strategy to deter China and assure allies and friends in the region. It is based on the concept of defending the first island chain, denying China use of the seas inside the first island chain and dominating the seas outside it. Its deterrent power is enhanced because Offshore Control is affordable, politically feasible, and can be executed today.     

Ripe for Cooperation or Rivalry? Commerce,Realpolitik, and War Memory in Contemporary Sino-Japanese Relations

Abstract

Sino-Japanese political relations, fraught with disputes and tension during the Koizumi years, only began to recover after Abe came to power. This article investigates the driving forces shaping recent and future bilateral relations. Using evidence from the Koizumi era, I argue that 1) bilateral commercial links prove a weak stabilizing factor for political relations; 2) the current distribution of power between China and Japan does not dictate their strategic rivalry, but they may still treat each other as rivals if they perceive the danger of long-term power transition and mutual hostile intent; 3) the frequent flare-up of bilateral history disputes can exacerbate mutual threat perceptions among elites and generate popular emotional pressure for hard-line government policy toward the other country. The future of Sino-Japanese cooperation heavily depends on their efforts to resolve the negative historical legacy.     

The European Union (EU) in Asian Security: Actor with a Punch or Distant Bystander?

The EU calls itself a “soft power,” making “soft power” contributions to Asian security. That is undoubtedly what the EU is and does in Asia and the track record of European contributions to Asian peace and stability through economic and financial as well as development aid and technical assistance over the decades is not unimpressive. As will be shown below, over recent years Brussels and the Union's individual member states have sought to increase their involvement and role in Asian “hard security,” attempting to get rid of its reputation of being security a “free-rider” enjoying but not sharing the burden of US regional security guarantees. While the EU will continue to be a “hard security” actor in Asian security within limits, it is advised to concentrate its security cooperation with like-minded partners such as Japan and the US as opposed to hoping that talking to Beijing on regional or global security issues produces tangible results. As will be shown below, it clearly does not as Beijing continues to conduct very assertive and at times aggressive regional foreign and security policies insisting on the “principle of non-interference” in Chinese domestic and foreign policies. Consequently, EU influence on Chinese foreign and security policies in general and its increasingly aggressive policies related to territorial claims in the East China and South China Seas will continue to exist on paper and paper only.