Violent crime and modernization in Colombia

This paper assesses violent crime in Colombia by focusing on police arrest data from 1938 to 1967. Social and political conditions provide the cultural context from which the effects of modernization on crime are examined. Shelley's modermization perspective claims that violent crime increases when a country modernizes, but property crimes increase after relative wealth and prosperity are achieved. Regression results support Shelley's perspective for the crimes of robbery and theft, whereas her theory gamered weaker support for the crimes of homicide and assault. Theoretical implications for modernization theory in light of the findings are discussed.     

Explaining crime in developing countries: The need for a case study approach

The relationship between crime and development typically has been investigated within the theoretical umbrella of three dominant frameworks (modernization, underdevelopment, routine activities) and by the analysis of cross-national, statistical correlations between developed and developed countries. We outline the empirical, methodological, conceptual and theoretical weaknesses of these studies. The categories developed and developing are invalid when studying crime and change and the defects of existing approaches can only be overcome by a case study approach to the relationships of patterns of crime in different countries.     

犯罪治理数字孪生体研究

犯罪治理的复杂特性迫切需要新科技介入研究。随着数字化时代的到来,犯罪治理现代化的研究和建设采取智能化手段已成可能,以此来提升精准犯罪治理的程度,达到更好的治理效果。针对处于复杂高阶多维的犯罪治理社会实体,结合数字孪生高逼真行为仿真特性和人工智能深度学习强大的数据挖掘能力,引入数字孪生进行犯罪治理现代化研究,从而构建犯罪治理数字孪生体。通过在虚拟空间可视化与分析实现犯罪治理现代化管理、预测预警、态势预判、模拟仿真、计算试验等,实现实时监测数据驱动下的犯罪在线治理,为犯罪治理现代化探索新思路。     

Women in Crime and Justice

ABSTRACT

Drawing upon feminist research on women in crime and justice, this study examines patterns of female crime in Israel over four decades and the criminal justice response to female offenders over two decades. The data show that crime patterns of Israeli women and the criminal justice response to their transgressions show remarkable resemblance to those discerned in other western countries. The article concludes that feminist insights and explanatory mechanisms suggested in other western countries are congruent with findings about women in crime and justice in Israel.     

Rural migration in Korea: a transition to the modern era

Because industrialization and modernization have been stressed as characteristics of an advanced society, pre-industrial and early industrial societies have often been depicted as sedentary and stable in the literature on migration; however, findings have begun to appear that question such depictions. In this paper, we examine the migration patterns of the rural Korean population during Japanese colonial rule (1910–1945), the period immediately preceding full-scale industrialization. In order to determine whether the population can be characterized as mobile or sedentary, we examine patterns of geographic mobility in association with migration distances and in association with migrants' ages. Our results suggest that during this era, as Korea headed down the road to modernity, individual movements followed mixed migration patterns. Specifically, migration in Korea prior to modernization exhibited both a stable-oriented pattern and a life-at-stake-oriented pattern. These findings confirm the context-specific diversity of migration processes across different societies and historical periods.     

Seasonal Variation in Violent Victimization: Opportunity and the Annual Rhythm of the School Calendar

Objectives

This study draws on an underused source of data on seasonality—victim surveys—to assess whether violent crime occurs with greater frequency during summer months or whether it simply becomes known to police more often, and to examine the extent to which seasonal patterns in violent crime are differentiated based on victim characteristics and location of crime.

Methods

Data used come from the 1993–2008 National Crime Victimization Survey. Time series regression models are estimated to describe seasonal differences in violent crime victimization and reporting rates.

Results

Seasonal trends in youth violence stand in contrast to the trends for young and older adults, primarily due to their high risk of victimization at and near school. No evidence of seasonality is found in the extent to which serious violence becomes known to the police. However, simple assault is significantly more likely to come to the attention of the police during the summer months, primarily due to increases in the reporting of youth violence.

Conclusions

Our findings confirm some of the previous work on seasonal patterns in violent crime, but also show that these patterns vary across age groups, locations, and type of violence.     

Seasonal Cycles in Crime, and Their Variability

Seasonal crime patterns have been a topic of sustained criminological research for more than a century. Results in the area are often conflicting, however, and no firm consensus exists on many points. The current study uses a long time series and a large areal sample to obtain more detailed seasonality estimates than have been available in the past. The findings show that all major crime rates exhibit seasonal behavior, and that most follow similar cycles. The existence of seasonal patterns is not explainable by monthly temperature differences between areas, but seasonality and temperature variations do interact with each other. These findings imply that seasonal fluctuations have both environmental and social components, which can combine to create different patterns from one location to another.     

On the Road to the Rule of Law: Crime, Crime Control, and Public Opinion in China

Since 1978, the Chinese reform policy has brought fast economic developments and social change but also considerably higher crime levels. China’s rapid modernization has resulted in a situation of increased opportunities and Durkheimian anomie. The Chinese government responds to the worsening crime situation with punitive criminal sanctions, especially under the ‘strike hard’ policy. However, a punitive crime control ideology and repressive criminal norms are neither effective in stopping the crime wave nor in compliance with the aim to establish the rule of law. After examining the negative effects the strike hard policy has brought to the Chinese criminal justice, we present findings from a recent web survey among Chinese students in Germany (N=ca. 900). We use these data to explore the punitive attitudes, esp. towards the death penalty, among the Chinese young elite.     

Routine crime in exceptional times: The impact of the 2002 Winter Olympics on citizen demand for police services

Despite their rich theoretical and practical importance, criminologists have paid scant attention to the patterns of crime and the responses to crime during exceptional events. Throughout the world large-scale political, social, economic, cultural, and sporting events have become commonplace. Natural disasters such as blackouts, hurricanes, tornadoes, and tsunamis present similar opportunities. Such events often tax the capacities of jurisdictions to provide safety and security in response to the exceptional event, as well as to meet the “routine” public safety needs. This article examines “routine” crime as measured by calls for police service, official crime reports, and police arrests in Salt Lake City before, during, and after the 2002 Olympic Games. The analyses suggest that while a rather benign demographic among attendees and the presence of large numbers of social control agents might have been expected to decrease calls for police service for minor crime, it actually increased in Salt Lake during this period. The implications of these findings are considered for theories of routine activities, as well as systems capacity.     

Predicting Initiator and Near Repeat Events in Spatiotemporal Crime Patterns: An Analysis of Residential Burglary and Motor Vehicle Theft

Near repeat analysis has been increasingly used to measure the spatiotemporal clustering of crime in contemporary criminology. Despite its predictive capacity, the typically short time frame of near repeat crime patterns can negatively affect the crime prevention utility of near repeat analysis. Thus, recent research has argued for a greater understanding of the types of places that are most likely to generate near repeat crime patterns. The current study contributes to the literature through a spatiotemporal analysis of residential burglary and motor vehicle theft in Indianapolis, IN. Near Repeat analyses were followed by multinomial logistic regression models to identify covariates related to the occurrence of initiator (the first event in a near repeat chain) and near repeat (the subsequent event in a near repeat chain) events. The overall findings provide additional support for the argument that neighborhood context can influence the formation and context of spatiotemporal crime patterns.     

The criminality of female narcotics addicts: A causal modeling approach

A longitudinal model was developed relating early deviance, narcotics use, and three types of income-generating crime (property crime, drug dealing, and prostitution) among female narcotics addicts during the first 2 years of the addiction career. The model was tested by a confirmatory structural equation analysis. Early deviance predicted subsequent property crime involvement. Stability across time was demonstrated for narcotics use, property crime, and drug dealing. Strong contemporaneous relationships among these constructs were found. These findings partially replicate patterns found in previous studies for male addicts. In contrast to male addicts, a positive, instead of negative, contemporaneous relationship was found between property crime and drug dealing activities. Between constructs, cross-lag effects were generally small and only that between property crime and later narcotics use was significant. Finally, prostitution was failed to be incorporated in the model. Further research is needed to elucidate the diverse economic support systems among women which may affect the drug-crime relationship.     

AGE AND ITS RELATION TO CRIME IN TAIWAN AND THE UNITED STATES: INVARIANT,OR DOES CULTURAL CONTEXT MATTER?*

Current empirical and theoretical understanding of the relation between age and crime is based almost entirely on data from the United States and a few prototypical Western societies for which age‐specific crime information across offense types is available. By using Western databases, Hirschi and Gottfredson (1983) projected that the age distribution of crime is always and everywhere robustly right‐skewed (i.e., sharp adolescent peak)—a thesis that is both contested and widely accepted in criminology and social science writings. In the study described here, we tested this age–crime invariance thesis by comparing age–crime patterns in Taiwan (a non‐Western Chinese society) with those in the United States. In light of Taiwan's collectivist culture versus the U.S. individualist gestalt, we anticipated more divergence than homogeneity in their age–crime schedules. Our findings show robust divergence in Taiwan's age–crime patterns compared with U.S. patterns and the reverted J‐shaped norm projected by Hirschi and Gottfredson. Implications for research and theory on the age–crime relation and for studying human development or life‐course topics more broadly are discussed.     

A randomized controlled trial of different policing strategies at hot spots of violent crime

Focusing police efforts on “hot spots” has gained acceptance among researchers and practitioners. However, little rigorous evidence exists on the comparative effectiveness of different hot spots strategies. To address this gap, we randomly assigned 83 hot spots of violence in Jacksonville, Florida, to receive either a problem-oriented policing (POP) strategy, directed-saturation patrol, or a control condition for 90 days. We then examined crime in these areas during the intervention period and a 90-day post-intervention period. In sum, the use of POP was associated with a 33% reduction in “street violence” during the 90 days following the intervention. While not statistically significant, we also observed that POP was associated with other non-trivial reductions in violence and property crime during the post-intervention period. In contrast, we did not detect statistically significant crime reductions for the directed-saturation patrol group, though there were non-significant declines in crime in these areas during the intervention period. Tests for displacement or a diffusion of benefits provided indications that violence was displaced to areas near the POP locations, though some patterns in the data suggest this may have been due to the effects of POP on crime reporting by citizens in nearby areas. We conclude by discussing the study’s limitations and the implications of the findings for efforts to refine hot spots policing.     

The Institutional Determinants of International Female Crime

In this article the author estimates the relative influences of the four broad social institutions of education, politics, family, and economy, plus the process of modernization upon proportionate female crime by using international data for 1974 derived from Interpol statistics. Each of the institutions is operationalized into three empirical indices, as is modernization, using data from the Handbook of International Data on Women. Then these 15 independent variables are intercorrelated with 7 specific categories of female offenses plus total female crime, each rendered in proportionate form as a ratio of female crime to all crime detected by the police in each category. The correlational analysis is constructed so as to constitute a test of three competing theories of female crime: the violence-prone “new female criminal,” the theory of economic need, and economc opportunity theory. The data provide only weak support for the theory of the “new female criminal,” but considerably stronger support for both the economic need and economic opportunity theories. It is not possible to choose unambiguously between the need and opportunity theories with the evidence at hand.     

ON THE CAUSES OF "WHITE-COLLAR" CRIME: AN ASSESSMENT OF HIRSCHI AND GOTTFREDSON'S CLAIMS

This article assesses Hirschi and Gottfredson claims about patterns and explanations of White-collar crime. It points out several flaws in their analysis and shows (1) that the UCR offense categories of fraud and forgery are not appropriate indicators of white-collar or occupational crime because the typical arrestee in these categories committed a nonoccupational crime; (2) that the demographic distribution (age, sex, race) of these "white-collar" crimes is not the same as it is for most ordinary crimes; and (3) that the occurrence of these "white-collar" crimes is not relatively rare. The implications of the findings for research and theory on crime are also discussed.     

THE DYNAMICS OF CRIME REGIMES*

Crimes have many features, and the mix of those features can change over time and space. In this article, we introduce the concept of a crime regime to provide some theoretical leverage on collections of crime features and how the collections of features can change. Key tools include the use of principal components analysis to determine the dimensions of crime regimes, visualization methods to help reveal the role of time, summary statistics to quantify crime regime patterns, and permutation procedures to examine the role of chance. Our approach is used to analyze temporal and spatial crime patterns for the city of Los Angeles during an 8‐year period. We focus on the number of violent crimes over time and their potential lethality.     

Juvenile Delinquency in Post-Mao China

The post-Mao de-politicization put an end to the continuous class struggle in China. After the post-Mao government had removed the radical elements from the party and united the society by its appealing modernization program, it directed its attention to street crime and juvenile and young offenders. Crime committed by juvenile and young offenders has become a serious social problem. It is estimated that among the total offenders apprehended by the police, 70% are under the age of 25, and 30% under the age of 18. Despite the party's tough policy, juvenile crime is increasing and becoming more organized and violent. The paralysis of the Maoist social control system is stressed in explaining the increase in crime. The disruption in the family structure, in school and work patterns, and in neighbourhood organizations, in conjunction with a sweeping crisis of belief among the populace in general, has created a vacuum of social control in post-Mao Chinese society. The seriousness of juvenile delinquency and the lack of community undertakings have forced the government to institutionalize and legalize its control over juvenile and young offenders.     

REASSESSING TRENDS IN BLACK VIOLENT CRIME, 1980–2008: SORTING OUT THE “HISPANIC EFFECT” IN UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS ARRESTS,NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY OFFENDER ESTIMATES,AND U.S. PRISONER COUNTS*

Recent studies suggest a decline in the relative Black effect on violent crime in recent decades and interpret this decline as resulting from greater upward mobility among African Americans during the past several decades. However, other assessments of racial stratification in American society suggest at least as much durability as change in Black social mobility since the 1980s. Our goal is to assess how patterns of racial disparity in violent crime and incarceration have changed from 1980 to 2008. We argue that prior studies showing a shrinking Black share of violent crime might be in error because of reliance on White and Black national crime statistics that are confounded with Hispanic offenders, whose numbers have been increasing rapidly and whose violence rates are higher than that of Whites but lower than that of Blacks. Using 1980–2008 California and New York arrest data to adjust for this “Hispanic effect” in national Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) data, we assess whether the observed national decline in racial disparities in violent crime is an artifact of the growth in Hispanic populations and offenders. Results suggest that little overall change has occurred in the Black share of violent offending in both UCR and NCVS estimates during the last 30 years. In addition, racial imbalances in arrest versus incarceration levels across the index violent crimes are both small and comparably sized across the study period. We conclude by discussing the consistency of these findings with trends in economic and social integration of Blacks in American society during the past 50 years.     

PARTICIPATION IN CRIME PARTNERSHIPS BY FEMALE DRUG USERS: THE EFFECTS OF DOMESTIC ARRANGEMENTS,DRUG USE,AND CRIMINAL INVOLVEMENT*

Research findings on the crime patterns of women suggest that social changes in gender roles are associated with increased female criminality. Some researchers note that the increasing participation of women in established criminal organizations increases female crime levels in general, Other researchers demonstrate that involvement with deviant boyfriends or husbands in particular not only introduces women to addictive drugs, but also contributes to greater crime participation. Measures of the domestic network, crime commitment, drug use, ethnicity, and participation in vice and predatory crimes are used to focus on women's formation and participation in crime partnerships. Findings reveal that ethnicity, living with boyfriends or husbands, high levels of crime commission, particularly while carrying weapons, and participating in vice and predatory crimes are factors that are shared by a number of crime partnerships. On the other hand, having children raised by others, a history of incarceration and arrest, and opiate use are factors that are important for specific crime partnerships; therefore, these factors are unique considerations that relate to the likelihood that criminal partnerships will develop.