Reserves, quotas and the demand for international liquidity

The foreign exchange reserves held by emerging market economies rose significantly in the last decade. This increase has been attributed to a desire by these countries to self-insure themselves against financial shocks. The rise in reserves may also reflect their concerns about the size of their IMF quotas, which set limits on the amount of credit that countries could draw from the IMF, and the conditionality associated with borrowing from the IMF. We offer a model of the choice by central banks between quotas and reserves to demonstrate that emerging markets will choose to hold relatively more reserves than advanced economies. We then investigate the impact of IMF quotas on reserve holdings for a panel of countries during the period of 1980?C2006. In addition to finding evidence of precautionary and mercantilist motives for holding reserves in emerging markets, we also find that reserves in these countries have been inversely related to their IMF quotas.     

States and their international relations since 1816: introducing version 2 of the International System(s) Dataset (ISD)

ABSTRACT

We introduce version 2 of the International System(s) Dataset (ISD), a register of sovereign states across the 1816–2016 period that include numerous states that are missed in commonly used datasets like the Correlates of War (COW) Project. Whereas ISD version 1 identified 363 states between 1816 and 2011, version 2 identifies 482. This version also records valuable information on a range of corollary variables, including start dates, end dates, estimated population sizes, diplomatic relations with Europe, conflict episodes, the existence of borders, and the location of capital cities. This dataset makes an important contribution to the study of international relations. It provides a more accurate understanding of the development of the international system over the last two centuries, it moves beyond the Eurocentric bias that sits at the heart of existing quantitative IR scholarship, and it will enable scholars to pursue a range of research topics such as the historical importance of state borders and boundaries, the practices surrounding recognition, and the frequency and intensity of conflict across regions. In this article, we discuss the existing state system membership lists and show how the ISD addresses their shortcomings. We outline the key concept and operationalization of statehood that the ISD adopts. We detail the variables included in this version of the ISD, discuss the data collection process, and show temporal and spatial distributions that illustrate the uniqueness of the ISD. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of bringing the ISD into one of many potential research topics: the study of conflict.     

European experience for East Asian integration: ideas, national interests, and the international circumstance

This paper traces the possibility of East Asian integration through comparison with the early stage of European integration on three different levels: ideas, national interests, and international circumstance. Judging from the European experience, ideas always come first, then national interest contests, and eventually the international circumstance conditions the context. I compare the multilateral approach in Europe with the imperial hegemony competition in East Asia, Adenauer’s regionalization policy in Europe with the Yoshida line of Westernization detouring from Asia, and the US and Russia’s different roles in the two regions as external forces constraining the international order. My conclusion for the future of East Asia is located somewhere between views of procedural divergence and fundamental skepticism. I worry about integration for the sake of integration in which regional integration is presupposed as inherently good. Such discourse will easily be deteriorated and such a blind community simply collapses when circumstances change. For these reasons, there needs to be an adequate discussion regarding for what, by whom, and through which method integration is achieved.     

一部颇具学术性和参考价值的著作——评《阿以冲突——问题与出路》

中东是当今世界的热点地区之一 ,阿以冲突是国际关系史上延续时间最长和各种矛盾最为复杂的地区冲突之一。这里几乎汇集了人类社会的各种利益冲突 ,包括民族的、宗教的、国家的和国家集团间的 ,涉及范围广 ,各种积怨深。正因为如此 ,中东地区和中东问题才成为人们特别关注和潜心研究的热点之一。在有关研究中东问题的著述中 ,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所殷罡副研究员主编的《阿以冲突———问题与出路》(国际文化出版公司 ,2 0 0 2年 5月版 )是一部颇具学术和实用参考价值的著作。一《阿以冲突———问题与出路》全书共 40余万字 ,包括相…     

"恐怖"的预言--《终级恐怖者》介评

1999年 ,哈佛大学出版社出版了《终极恐怖者》(ＪｅｓｓｉｃａＳｔｅｒｎ :ＴｈｅＵｌｔｉｍａｔｅＴｅｒｒｏｒｉｓｔｓ)一书。作者杰西卡·斯特恩现为美国对外关系委员会高级研究员 ,曾任美国国家安全委员会俄罗斯、乌克兰、中亚事务处处长 ,负责核走私问题的跨部门小组工作。斯特恩在该书中提出的“终极恐怖者”概念特指以伊斯兰极端分子、右翼极端分子、世界末日派组织、“千年至福派”邪教为代表的新一代恐怖分子。她断言 :鉴于这批新型恐怖分子的崛起 ,有关核、生化武器知识的泛滥 ,前苏联核、化学材料被窃与走私 ,薪水微薄的核武器专…     

《拉丁美洲和加勒比发展报告(2010～2011)》(黄皮书)发布式暨拉美形势研讨会综述

2011年4月20日,由中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所和社会科学文献出版社联合举办的"2011年<拉美黄皮书>发布式暨拉美形势研讨会"在京举行,正式发布由社会科学文献出版社出版的<拉丁美洲和加勒比发展报告(2010～2011)>.外交部、中联部、商务部、中国人民银行、国家开发银行、北京大学、南开大学等机构的专家学者以及人民日报、新华社、中央电视台、中国国际广播电台等国内媒体人士共150余人出席了会议.