Reserves, quotas and the demand for international liquidity

The foreign exchange reserves held by emerging market economies rose significantly in the last decade. This increase has been attributed to a desire by these countries to self-insure themselves against financial shocks. The rise in reserves may also reflect their concerns about the size of their IMF quotas, which set limits on the amount of credit that countries could draw from the IMF, and the conditionality associated with borrowing from the IMF. We offer a model of the choice by central banks between quotas and reserves to demonstrate that emerging markets will choose to hold relatively more reserves than advanced economies. We then investigate the impact of IMF quotas on reserve holdings for a panel of countries during the period of 1980?C2006. In addition to finding evidence of precautionary and mercantilist motives for holding reserves in emerging markets, we also find that reserves in these countries have been inversely related to their IMF quotas.     

States and their international relations since 1816: introducing version 2 of the International System(s) Dataset (ISD)

ABSTRACT

We introduce version 2 of the International System(s) Dataset (ISD), a register of sovereign states across the 1816–2016 period that include numerous states that are missed in commonly used datasets like the Correlates of War (COW) Project. Whereas ISD version 1 identified 363 states between 1816 and 2011, version 2 identifies 482. This version also records valuable information on a range of corollary variables, including start dates, end dates, estimated population sizes, diplomatic relations with Europe, conflict episodes, the existence of borders, and the location of capital cities. This dataset makes an important contribution to the study of international relations. It provides a more accurate understanding of the development of the international system over the last two centuries, it moves beyond the Eurocentric bias that sits at the heart of existing quantitative IR scholarship, and it will enable scholars to pursue a range of research topics such as the historical importance of state borders and boundaries, the practices surrounding recognition, and the frequency and intensity of conflict across regions. In this article, we discuss the existing state system membership lists and show how the ISD addresses their shortcomings. We outline the key concept and operationalization of statehood that the ISD adopts. We detail the variables included in this version of the ISD, discuss the data collection process, and show temporal and spatial distributions that illustrate the uniqueness of the ISD. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of bringing the ISD into one of many potential research topics: the study of conflict.     

The Party Paradox: a Comment Nicolas van de Walle (Cornell) February 20, 2018

ABSTRACT

This article analyzes several stylized facts and implications concerning intra-party violence developed in the other articles of this special issue on intra-party violence in African electoral systems. It then turns more specifically to the implications of intra-party violence for democratic consolidation in the region, and argues that paradoxically, though parties are centrally important to democratic politics, the degree to which they are internally inclusive and participatory may not have much importance, or may indeed undermine democracy. Though they are perhaps the key actor on the path to a consolidated democracy, they tend to work best when they themselves are not internally democratic.     

The need for international search and rescue (SAR) teams during an earthquake: Nepal case study

On 25 April 2015, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck Nepal, causing huge damage. Many countries and international organisations such as the United Nations started monitoring the situation and offered support to the Nepali government. This article raises points that must be examined by decision-makers before implementing delegations; these include cost effectiveness, whether it improves morale and resilience, international relations, and experience, and promotes good relationships between the two countries, and assisting their own citizens who were affected by the disaster.     

European experience for East Asian integration: ideas, national interests, and the international circumstance

This paper traces the possibility of East Asian integration through comparison with the early stage of European integration on three different levels: ideas, national interests, and international circumstance. Judging from the European experience, ideas always come first, then national interest contests, and eventually the international circumstance conditions the context. I compare the multilateral approach in Europe with the imperial hegemony competition in East Asia, Adenauer’s regionalization policy in Europe with the Yoshida line of Westernization detouring from Asia, and the US and Russia’s different roles in the two regions as external forces constraining the international order. My conclusion for the future of East Asia is located somewhere between views of procedural divergence and fundamental skepticism. I worry about integration for the sake of integration in which regional integration is presupposed as inherently good. Such discourse will easily be deteriorated and such a blind community simply collapses when circumstances change. For these reasons, there needs to be an adequate discussion regarding for what, by whom, and through which method integration is achieved.     

The dollar and the demand for protection

Postwar trade politics in the USA have exhibited intermittent periods of rising industry demands for protection from imports. At present, however, we do not fully understand why industry demands for protection rise and fall overtime. We argue that intermittent protectionism in postwar USA has been driven by changes in the real exchange rate. To do so, we incorporate the real exchange rate into a basic model of sectoral trade policy preferences to show how the number of sectors that expect to benefit from protection grows as the real exchange rate appreciates. We test two hypotheses generated from this model: first that the number of antidumping and escape clause petitions rises as the dollar strengthens and falls as the dollar weakens. Second that competitive sectors are more sensitive to exchange rate movements than comparatively disadvantaged and comparatively advantaged sectors. We evaluate these expectations with a Bayesian statistical analysis of data on antidumping and escape clause petitions in the USA between 1974 and 2012. The empirical models provide robust support for the study’s principal hypotheses.     

T. Tamman (2011). The Last Ambassador: August Torma,Soldier, Diplomat,Spy

ABSTRACT

This article recounts the author’s experience as a junior diplomat in the British Diplomatic Service in the late 1960s handling the file of Rudolf Hess, Hitler’s ex-deputy serving a life sentence in Spandau prison in Berlin. As the only Nazi leader still imprisoned there after the release in 1966 of Albert Speer and Baldur von Schirach, his fate as 'the lone prisoner of Spandau’had become an international issue. Sentenced at the Nuremberg trial of 1946, his fate was a matter for the four powers still occupying Berlin. Moscow was determined that as the last remaining symbol of the Hitler regime Hess should die there. In the West, however, and especially in Britain, there was a press campaign for his release that put pressure on the Foreign Office by way of letters from the public and parliamentary questions. As a desk officer for Germany, it fell to me to handle this by writing or drafting replies to the effect that as Hess was a prisoner of all four powers the decision required consent, that Moscow was adamantly opposed, and that Britain could not act unilaterally. But the real target of the press campaign, spearheaded by the Beaverbrook press through the Daily and Sunday Express, was Harold Wilson’s Labour Government. Anything that could demonstrate his alleged ‘appeasement’ of Moscow was grist to its mill. The now weeded file in the National Archives gives little hint of this politically-motivated agenda.