当前中东安全局势及对中国中东外交的影响

中东变局三年多来,地区安全局势变得日益复杂。除了传统热点问题之外,由政治转型引发和激活的地区教俗、教派以及其他各种政治力量之间的斗争和社会矛盾正成为影响地区安全的新因素。埃及围绕支持和反对穆斯林兄弟会的政治博弈不仅造成该国社会分裂,也对地区稳定构成潜在威胁,叙利亚危机久拖不决致使地区极端主义思潮沉渣泛起、恐怖主义势力趁乱扩张并有向区外国家溢出之势。此外,美国战略重心东移导致原有地缘政治格局发生变化,造成地区国家之间关系出现新的紧张,而美俄等大国在中东乃至全球事务中的互动也对中东安全局势产生深刻的影响。未来相当长的时期里,中东传统热点问题依然是影响地区安全和地缘政治关系的主要因素,而持续深入转型将成为中东各国政治和社会发展的主要特征。中国与中东关系将基于这一趋势而发展,中国的中东外交也应以此为重点,更加积极主动地参与中东事务,促进热点问题的和平解决,并尽自己所能帮助中东国家实现平稳转型。     

试析中东人口问题及其影响

人口激增和青年人口膨胀是中东地区比较突出的两大人口问题,长期困扰着中东国家,同时也在当前中东地区的政治转型中扮演着重要作用。在经济、政治和社会等多重因素的综合作用下,中东地区逐步形成了以人口增长速度快、青年人口众多、贫富两极分化严重为特征的人口结构。这不仅带来严重的国内政治、经济和社会后果,更有着深远的全球治理负面效应。就前者而言,人口年轻化问题导致了中东地区各国的失业特别是青年人失业问题突出,社会矛盾加剧,伊斯兰复兴运动再度高涨,以及由青年人口膨胀与网络技术结合而来的社会治理难度加大。其对全球治理的潜在负面影响主要体现为:它可能加剧既有的生态环境问题、移民问题、国际恐怖主义扩散和宗教与文明冲突加剧。对刚经历重大变局且正在努力恢复正常秩序的中东各国来说,人口问题将会成为决定该地区新秩序、实现国家现代化转型的关键因素之一。     

全球性问题对中东地区发展的影响

全球性问题是人类社会共同面临的超越国家和区域界限的普遍性问题.全球性问题需要全球治理才能得到改变.廓清全球性问题及其对中东地区发展的影响,是推动中东治理的基本前提.西方国家一方面将全球性问题带到中东地区,阻断了该地区既有发展道路,加剧了该地区的发展困境和安全困境;另一方面又在中东地区制造一系列新问题,许多问题又外溢为地区性和全球性问题,而这些问题相互影响,加剧了中东地区的动荡程度,增加了治理难度.应对全球性问题及其对中东地区的冲击,需要提升中东国家治理能力,倡导构建人类命运共同体理念,推进全球性问题和中东地区性问题的协同共治.     

当前欧洲社会政治思潮简析

当前，伴随着欧洲经济不景气以及美国金融危机的扩散，欧洲经济和政治发展模式面临诸多难题，社会政治思潮趋于活跃。     

拉美社会政治思潮新动向

拉美是一个与美欧西方国家保持密切接触、政党派别多种多样、媒体发达、思想活跃和乐于接受新理论的地区。因此，拉美经常出现一些紧跟国内外形势变化的思潮。最近几年，尤其是2008年，美国金融危机的爆发、拉美社会问题的恶化以及拉美左派的东山再起，对拉美社会政治思潮的动向产生了重大影响。当前，拉美占主流地位的思潮主要涉及以下三个方面：     

中国参与中东地区经济治理的理论与实践

中东地区长期存在严重的经济问题与"治理赤字",地区经济治理需要国际社会的共同参与。随着在中东地区的经济利益日益扩大,中国已成为中东地区经济治理的重要参与者,主要覆盖能源、贸易、投融资与发展治理等领域。尽管如此,国际社会对中国发挥更大作用的期待与压力仍不断增大。与西方大国相比,中国的治理实践在目标、能力、路径、机制、领域和风格等方面均独具特色:中国参与地区经济治理改善了地区经济发展环境与贸易条件,增强了其经济自主发展能力;也用实际行动回应了西方所谓中国"搭便车"的指责。"一带一路"倡议的落实,推动中国参与中东地区经济治理的实践进入新阶段,中国应努力提升治理能力,创新治理机制,构建国际合作治理格局。     

地区大国博弈催生中东新格局

正"阿拉伯之春"迄今已有五载,极大颠覆了原有的中东秩序。当前中东正处于旧秩序崩溃,新秩序重塑的过渡阶段。其中,地缘政治格局变动最突出的特点是,已经延续二十多年的美国治下的中东格局正发生严重动摇,地区格局由单极加速向多极化方向演化。而推动多极化发展的因素中,以地区大国的新作用格外显眼。中东地区主要力量的大分化、地区大国之间的大博弈以及地区国家间关系的大重     

论中东的水争夺与地区政治

本文依据最新资料,全面研究了当代中东地区的水资源状况,将尼罗河流域、两河流域和约旦河流域的水问题与战后中东政治发展和地区安全局势紧密联系在一起,分别从合作、冲突和战争等多方面来加以论述和分析。要在中东地区实现持久和平、合作与发展,水资源的公平利用和分配,将是有关国家和国际社会不能回避的重大问题,最终解决需要各方的政治决断。     

特朗普政府的中东关系网络评析

特朗普政府在中东地区的政策,主要是恢复美国与中东盟友的关系,重申美国的领导地位,带领和帮助中东盟友维护经济安全、打击恐怖主义,反对支持或宽容恐怖主义、破坏地区稳定的国家。在此基础上,特朗普政府与相关国家建立了一个以美国为中心、基于关系认同的关系网络。特朗普政府与关系网络内的盟友开展合作并根据关系认同程度而给予相应的支持;将处于关系网络外的伊朗视为"支持恐怖主义""破坏地区稳定"以及危害美国和以色列安全的敌对国家,组织关系网络内的盟国对其围堵和打击。特朗普政府在中东地区构建的关系网络,加速了中东地区的新区块化,决定了中东政治的新面貌。     

中东政治生态回归本来面貌—专访著名中东问题专家殷罡

中东地区4个大种族厮杀3000年,他们以及他们的祖先一直在寻求力量平衡,冷战时期需要借助外部力量,而冷战结束之后,中东内部原生态的力量就显得非常重要了。美国支持的中东秩序正在崩溃,但新秩序并没有出现。相反,有的只是不断蔓延、可能远远溢出地区边界的混乱。叙利亚和埃及的事态还在发展,中东内部不仅持续着民族教派的冲突,极端主义的力量也被释放。就地区大国中谁能取代美国成为秩序维持者,中东是否需要外部干预,内部再平衡又如何实现,本刊专访了中国社科院西亚非洲研究所研究员、中国中东学会常务理事殷罡。     

Impacts of Bribery in Healthcare in Vietnam

This study explores how bribery in the health sector is associated with people’s well-being and with universal health coverage. By using the data of Vietnam from 2011 and 2012, this study reveals a negative correlation between the prevalence of bribery and health outcomes and the health insurance coverage. Additionally, the results indicate that bribers feel neither cured of injury/disease nor satisfied with healthcare service quality. Furthermore, there is a significantly negative correlation between the belief of the necessity to give a bribe and the health insurance enrolment decision.     

上海青少年网吧经验调查分析

网络时代给青少年的生存方式带来了巨大变化，而青少年网吧经验的探究是认识这一问题的路径之一。本文通过定量研究的方法，分析网吧青少年的基本情况、网络使用经验、以及网络成瘾状况，以期能够对青少年网吧经验做一描述性分析。最后，就网吧管理和青少年服务提出如下建议：规范网吧管理规定、实施统一执法队伍，加强青少年网络教育、丰富青少年休闲场所，引入社会工作制度、促进家庭功能恢复。     

The challenge of design of intergovernmental relations in economies in transition

The governments of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are at a crucial juncture in their movement from highly centralized command economies to more decentralized market economies. While there is a belief in these countries that decentralization brings greater economic efficiency, the reality is that such a transition is a difficult process. This paper examines what types of administrative reforms are needed for the decentralization process, how far along the countries are with respect to these reforms, and what reforms are missing. As we discuss, many of the necessary administration reforms are missing and we argue that more attention must be paid to these elements for successful decentralization of these governments.

This paper examines the recent experience and reform needs of the key administrative aspects of the design of intergovernmental relations in countries in transition in Eastern Europe and in the former Soviet Union. There is a widespread realization in all of these countries that decentralizing government will help increase efficiency in the public sector just as privatization will improve efficiency in their economies. Decentralization of government operations is also attractive as a way to cement a democratic form of government. Despite the appearances of the existence of an already decentralized system, such as in the case of the Soviet Union, this experiment started in practically all cases with a lack of institutions and experience on how decentralized government operations should be organized.

As different as these countries are, there are many similarities in the reform process they are following in order to decentralize government structure. While the basic components of a decentralized system of government are emerging in many of these countries the structure of government has not fully evolved in a manner that can support such a decentralized system. Often, governments remain structured along a vertical hierarchy: information, budgetary authority, and revenue pass from the central government down to subnational levels of government while little communication or interaction exists at a horizontal level. In general, the assignment of revenue and expenditure has not been clearly defined among the two or three levels of government, central government transfers continue to occur in a relatively ad hoc manner, and the entire budgeting system still rests in many cases on more or less formal system of negotiations and bargaining among the different levels of government. There has been some change in this structure in certain countries. Over the last three years, both Poland and Hungary have legally increased the automony of subnational governments. In 1994 in Russia a new and more transparent system of intergovernmental grants has been established between the federal government and the regions. In 1994 also, Latvia introduced a more transparent formula-driven, transfer formula for the regional and municipal governments.

The focus of this paper is to develop a “blue print” for necessary changes in organization and administration of intergovernmental relations in countries in transition. While many experts have recently been discussing the public finance policy components of this new, evolving relationship among levels of government, less attention has been paid to the structural and administrative challenges and the information design issues that must be met in order to develop and support a system of intergovernmental relations.

The paper is organized as follows: First we review the major responsibilities and their allocation among levels of government, the assignment of revenue sources, and the system of transfers. We then turn to a discussion of the current experience of Eastern European and NIS countries in the context of the structural components of an intergovernmental fiscal system. Next, we analyze the organizational reforms that are necessary for the efficient functioning of a decentralized system of government in the economies in transition. Finally we “rate” the transition economies in relation to their current design of the system of intergovernmental relations and support mechanisms.     

Changes in surveillance of regulatory enforcement progragrammes in Singapore

In recent years Myanmar underwent drastic political changes. While many see these changes as first tentative steps towards democratization, we argue that the current political transformation is not a deliberate process of liberalization, but a survival strategy of the military regime. Using arguments of the ‘new institutionalism’ as a theoretical foundation, this article explores the hypothesis that the high degree of professionalization of the Burmese military creates the incentive to institutionalize power-sharing among the ruling elite. Our empirical analysis finds evidence for both a highly professionalized military and institutions that by securing the military's continuing dominance serve the purpose of institutionalizing military power- sharing. These results imply that further democratization is unlikely as it must be initiated from within the still dominating military itself.     

Slapping Accountability in the Face: Observance of Accountability in Malawi's Local Governments in the Absence of Councilors

Against the background of Malawi having had no councilors since the second quarter of 2005, this article aims at establishing the effects of the absence of councilors on the promotion of accountability as a tenet of good governance as espoused in the National Decentralization Policy. Adopting a mixed research design with a strong bias towards qualitative research methodologies, the article finds out that in the absence of councilors, observance of accountability by local governments has been negatively affected. The article argues that in the absence of councilors there has been reversal of accountabilities whereby horizontal accountability has been given more emphasis than vertical accountability; having a secretariat that is both a decision-maker and implementer of decisions has been a recipe for abuse of power; and interim mechanisms and emerging institutions responsible for advocating accountability are limited and a mockery of good governance.     

The Portrayal of Female Terrorists in the Media: Similar Framing Patterns in the News Coverage of Women in Politics and in Terrorism

Abstract

Although women have been among the leaders and followers of terrorist organizations throughout the history of modern terrorism, the mass media typically depict women terrorists as interlopers in an utterly male domain. A comparison of the framing patterns in the news about women in politics and the entrenched stereotypes in the coverage of female terrorists demonstrates similarities in the depiction of these legitimate (women in politics) and illegitimate political actors (women in terrorism). Just like the managers of election campaigns are cognizant of the electorate's stereotypical gender perceptions, terrorist organizations know about and exploit cultural gender clichés that are reinforced by the media. The argument here is that the implementation of anti- and counterterrorist policies must not be influenced by the mass-mediated images of female terrorists because they do not reflect reality.     

印尼酒店爆炸案的背后--东南亚伊斯兰极端势力出现反弹

2003年8月5日中午时分,印尼雅加达最豪华的万豪酒店突然发生剧烈爆炸,造成100多人伤亡。人们还未从震惊中醒来,驻足东南亚地区的伊斯兰极端组织“伊斯兰祈祷团”便承认对此次恐怖事件负责。“基地”组织发言人更直截了当声明该恐怖事件是“基地”与“伊斯兰祈祷团”的一次成功策划,今后类似的恐怖事件将在全球上演。随后,印尼警方展开行动,逮捕了多名事件嫌疑人;8月15日,有“东方本·拉登”之称的“基地”组织东南亚分支领导人兼“伊斯兰祈祷团”行动首领印尼人汉巴利在泰国落网。