Constraints in Gas for Oil Substitution in the USSR: The Oil Refining Industry and Gas Storage

While Soviet oil output peaked in the early 1980s, natural gas output grew rapidly. As a result the Soviets have sought to use more natural gas as a boiler fuel, freeing petroleum for the higher priority mobile and chemical uses. Lack of depth in Soviet oil refining and lack of gas storage capacity are the two key constraints in this gas-for-oil substitution strategy. This paper considers the prospects for easing these constraints by restructuring the petroleum refining industry, and providing enough gas storage capacity to supply all gas demand during the winter. Journal of Economc Literature, Classification Numbers: 124, 723.     

试析俄罗斯天然气发展的困境

俄罗斯缺乏发展与市场要求相适应的天然气出口基础设施的战略,这可能导致天然气出口的实物量在最近几年里停止增长。俄天然气工业公司(Gazprom)生产下滑的局面和天然气部门缺乏长期战略及一些“短视”政策的实施,可能导致油气产量增长的停滞甚至出现下滑。如何解决能源出口与国内需求之间的矛盾,如何在通过提高油气出口收入来实现宏观经济目标与能源部门保持可持续发展之间寻求平衡已成俄罗斯的当务之急。     

俄罗斯油气资源依附型经济论析

尽管1999年后俄罗斯的经济增长是内需而非投资主导的,但俄仍然是出口矿产资源、进口机器等工业制成品和食品的单一经济模式的发展中国家,其经济增长受出口大宗商品的国际市场价格和汇率变化的影响较大。无论从名义GDP还是从实际GDP来看,油气产业对俄罗斯经济增长的贡献率都很大。俄罗斯制造业的竞争力依然很低。因此,俄罗斯经济是一种油气资源依附型经济。俄罗斯政府对国内市场的天然气价格实施管制,在一定程度上减轻了"荷兰病"的进一步发展。来自油气产业的税收大幅增加使俄财政收入由赤字转为盈余。俄政府为此设立了稳定基金,在抑制通货膨胀的同时偿还了外债。从2008年起,俄在引入油气收支或油气外收支等概念基础上开始实施新的预算编制和执行制度。稳定基金因此转化为储备基金和下一代基金。俄经济的长远发展取决于如何减轻"荷兰病"的影响以及通货膨胀的压力。     

Eastern Mediterranean Gas Discoveries: Local and Global Impact

The ongoing discoveries of natural-gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean region significantly affect international relations. Since their viability has been increasingly confirmed, they have attracted public attention in the international energy market. Focusing on current gas production and trading in the Middle East, this paper studies the anticipated impact of gas production in the sea on geopolitical relations in the Middle East and investigates how these results may change the geoeconomic strategies of global energy-market players as well as nearby countries. In addition, our analyses provide comprehensive insights into the evolution of gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean.     

Environment and Energy: The Baltic Sea Gas Pipeline

Germany and Russia have agreed to build the Nord Stream gas pipeline. The 1,200 kilometers-long structure will run from Vyborg, Russia to Greifswald, Germany traversing the Baltic Sea. The Baltic countries, Finland, Poland and Sweden, have expressed concerns about the project. At issue is the environmental impact of the project as well as the energy, political, and socioeconomic implications.     

印度尼西亚油气产业的发展与改革

长期以来,印尼一直是东南亚首屈一指的产油大国,也是全球最大液化天然气生产国之一,在全球能源市场占有重要地位.由于对老油田进行无限度开采,对勘探新油田的工作不太重视,加上近年印尼与西方跨国公司之间在油气方面的合作充满坎坷,导致印尼石油产量不断下降,石油供给增长乏力.印尼政府正在积极重组石油产业,配合发展天然气产业链,对油气产业管理体制与产业政策进行调整与改革,努力保持油气大国的地位.     

The East China Sea Issue: Japan-China Talks for Oil and Gas

Japan and China argued for oil and gas in the East China Sea. The issue flared up in 2003. Between 2004 and 2007 the two sides held 11 rounds of official talks in order to resolve the issue. They sought demarcation of the sea and joint development in the disputed area. The gap between positions remained wide. China claims its continental shelf; Japan proposes a median line. By closely monitoring different rounds of talks, remarks, developments, maneuvers, negotiators and dates, it is possible to construct a broad picture of the issue to measure progress and predict outcomes. It is found that improving relations not only facilitate negotiations but somehow exert pressure for a settlement. The general relationship did affect the pace of talks, which could produce a partial solution.

土库曼天然气出口多元化政策与决策机制分析

土库曼斯坦是欧俄能源战略争夺的焦点.土一直在寻求出口天然气管道的多元化,按照世界价格出售天然气,冲破俄罗斯对土天然气运输的垄断.俄罗斯、中国、欧盟和伊朗因素的综合作用将影响未来土库曼出口决策的走向.     

英国温室气体排放:因素分解与减排路径研究

本文运用对数平均D氏指数(LMDI)分解法对1990年以来影响英国温室气体排放的因素进行研究,分产业考察了英国减排的具体路径。研究结果表明,在20世纪90年代,英国在减排方面主要依靠电力行业私有化、制造业产业升级以及由此引发的用能设备的更新。英国在2003年提出低碳发展战略以后实施的碳排放交易机制和碳税政策也对减排产生了一定的推动作用。综合来看,英国电力行业的减排主要得益于能源消费结构的转变,制造业则更多依靠自身的产业升级,只有服务业受政策直接推动的程度较深。因此,本文认为,没有迹象表明政策因素是推动英国温室气体减排的主要力量,英国温室气体排放量的下降与其所处经济发展的环境与水平相一致,并不单纯是主观人为因素选择的结果。     

Sino-Japanese Energy Security and Regional Stability: The Case of the East China Sea Gas Exploration

The Sino-Japanese dispute over the East China Sea maritime resources was triggered by the unsettled maritime boundary and the territorial dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. The dispute has been ascribed by many to intensified competition between China and Japan over energy supply. However this article attributes the fundamental cause of the conflict to power politics and political distrust, which are deemed to have the key role in preventing the two governments from finding a solution. The article analyses the origin and the causes responsible for the Sino-Japanese dispute over the East China Sea gas exploration, and then proceeds to investigate the diplomatic dialogues to reveal the key obstacles in the process.

Human Rights and Tear Gas: The Question of Carter Administration Officials Opposed to the Shah

Jimmy Carter’s arrival to the White House and Washington’s new focus on human rights caused an early, although subtle, rift between the United States and the Shah’s Iran. The aim of this paper is to explore how the Bureau of Human Rights’ activist approach, under the leadership of the outspoken Patricia Derian, muddied the waters between Tehran and Washington, while using the export of riot control equipment as the spearhead of Carter’s human rights policy abroad.     

海峡两岸合作勘探开发东沙海域油气资源探析

在海洋油气勘探与开发方面,海峡两岸的合作前景十分广阔。东沙海域作为潜在的油气资源富集区,区位优势明显。两岸可在东沙海域全面推进油气资源的合作勘探与开发,为今后在其他海域合作积累经验,共同维护南海油气资源开发权利和南海主权。     

俄罗斯战略性主导产业增长方式:能源工业的实证分析

对经济转轨以来俄罗斯能源工业的研究表明,作为战略性主导产业的能源工业在俄罗斯经济转轨中发挥了巨大作用.在俄罗斯转轨危机中,能源工业一直保持了较高的增长速度,并率先走出经济危机.对经济转轨前俄罗斯能源工业的回顾表明,计划经济体制下粗放式开采是制约苏联油气开发后劲的根本原因.对此我们要给予充分客观的认识.本文从设计采收率、劳动生产率等方面论述了经济转轨以来俄罗斯能源工业的粗放式经济发展方式的进一步加强.深入分析了俄罗斯能源工业的粗放式经济发展方式加强的原因.本文指出,经济转轨中俄罗斯能源工业的经济发展方式的转变,关系到整体经济发展方式、经济增长速度和经济结构调整.     

油气业对印度尼西亚与文莱经济发展影响的对比分析

在东盟成员国中,印度尼西亚代表的是老成员国,而文莱是东盟国家中最富裕的国家.这两个国家的油气资源都十分丰富,其油气业的发展对国内的经济增长与发展都起到过举足轻重的作用.但是从20世纪80年代中期开始,这两个国家油气业的发展却大相径庭.本文拟从两个国家经济发展的对比分析入手,来剖析油气业在两国发展中的相似性与差异性及其对两国经济增长与发展产生的影响以及今后发展的前景.     

东北亚油气合作的现实选择:来自中国在中亚的成功经验

东北亚和中亚地区凭借丰富的油气资源,在世界能源版图中的地位日渐上升。近年来,中亚地区油气合作发展迅速,但是在资源总量上更具优势的东北亚油气合作之路却充满曲折。在地区性统一能源市场形成之前,政府间多边协调机制仍然是东北亚油气合作的现实选择。中国在互利双赢的理念指导下,以良好的政治互信为基础,以油气运输管线为纽带,通过以双边合作为主、双边合作带动多边合作的方式,循序渐进地稳步推进了与中亚国家的油气合作。因此,中国在推动地区油气合作方面积累了一定的成功经验,提高了驾驭复杂局面的能力,理应在推进东北亚油气合作方面发挥更积极的作用。