Negotiating democracy with authoritarian regimes. EU democracy promotion in North Africa

ABSTRACT

In order to better understand the dynamics of international cooperation on democracy promotion with authoritarian regimes, this article looks into the processes and results of negotiations on democracy (promotion) between the European Union (EU) and two of its North African neighbours (Morocco, Tunisia) in the decade leading up to the Arab uprisings. Asking if, how, and to what effect the EU and its Mediterranean partners have negotiated issues related to democracy promotion, it analyses official documents issued on the occasion of their respective association council meetings in 2000-2010. It shows that partners have indeed addressed these issues since the early 2000s, however, without engaging in substantive exchanges. Most of the time, conflicts have been neither directly addressed nor resolved. Where there are traces of actual negotiations leading to an agreement, these are clearly based on a logic of bargaining rather than arguing. These findings challenge the picture of harmony and cooperation between the EU and Morocco. Furthermore, they point to the low quality of these exchanges which reinforces the dilemma of international democracy promotion in cooperation with authoritarian regimes.     

俄罗斯与国际经济组织

与国际经济组织的关系决定了一个国家在国际经济体系中的地位 ,进而影响这个国家在国际上的各种利益。俄罗斯与国际经济组织的关系在不同的历史时期是互不相同的。本文着重分析了 2 0世纪 90年代以来三大国际经济组织与俄罗斯的关系 ,在俄罗斯推行新的国际经济战略的情况下三大国际经济组织与俄罗斯关系的新走向。     

俄罗斯与欧盟国家的经济合作

俄罗斯非常重视发展同欧盟的关系,自独立之后,为了实现经济转轨、克服经济困难,它渴望同西方国家尤其是欧盟进行经济合作,以获得投资和经济援助.欧盟作为世界上最大的区域性经济集团,在欧洲发挥非常重要的影响作用,它不仅重视和发展同俄罗斯的关系,而且是俄罗斯最大的投资者和经贸伙伴.由于双方存在利益分歧等因素,经济合作的成效是有限的,对双方的影响是不同的.     

俄罗斯经济现状及前景分析

2000年以来,俄罗斯经济一直保持增长势头.俄国内普遍对2001年经济形势持乐观态度.本文认为,从一些主要的经济指标来看,俄罗斯经济的确开始回升,俄今后一个时期内经济会继续增长,但增幅不会太大.俄罗斯经济是恢复性增长,亮点虽多,但不能据此肯定已经形成了"拐点".     

俄罗斯加速迈向经济大国

历经15年的转型，俄罗斯经济发展思路渐趋明确，经济稳步增长，加速向经济大国迈进。尽管目前国际社会与各界专家对俄罗斯复兴前景的评估不尽相同，但毫无疑问，俄罗斯的重新走强必将给国际政治经济格局带来新的变化。     

Economic Trends and Domestic Debates of Russia

I. The Deep Roots of Economic Fluctuation in Russia
1. Russia＇s economic downturn in the first half of 2013
At a State Duma meeting in September 2013, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that the Russian economy had grown by 4 percent in the first half of 2013 and was projected to grow by 2.1 percent in the second half of the year. Shortly thereafter, international financial organizations revised their 2013 and 2014 projections for the Russian economy.     

Political leadership and the construction of competitive authoritarian regimes in Latin America: implications and prospects for democracy

Recent developments have raised new concerns regarding the prospects of democracy in Latin America, particularly in what are often defined, although not unanimously, as cases of competitive authoritarianism, including Bolivia, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. In light of their significance and diffusion on a global level, understanding how these regimes emerge is important, especially when they replace democratic or imperfectly democratic regimes such as in the cases examined in this study. What explains the emergence of competitive authoritarian regimes (CARs), particularly when the starting point is democratic or imperfectly democratic? What are the region’s democratic prospects after the emergence of various CARs in the last two decades? Through the comparative analysis of competitive authoritarian attempts in Bolivia, Ecuador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, I argue that the same passages and challenges required to transform a democratic regime into a CAR makes incumbents' features and strategies particularly important, especially the ability to weather potentially lethal institutional crises and limit the legitimacy costs associated with competitive authoritarian manipulations. Incumbents have proved more successful in these challenges and hence in their competitive authoritarian attempts when combining charisma and the elaboration of a democratic discourse including the diffusion of new democratic values.     

俄罗斯与白俄罗斯经贸合作关系论析

俄罗斯、白俄罗斯相继独立后 ,两国的经贸合作关系随着两国国家关系的不断升级而逐步向前发展。目前双方互为最重要的贸易伙伴 ,白俄罗斯已成为俄罗斯的第 3大贸易伙伴。然而 ,就两国良好的政治关系而言 ,两国经贸合作关系发展的总体水平并不是很高。俄白经济体制、具体经济政策法规的非趋同性等问题一直制约着两国经贸关系的发展。双方只有共同努力循序渐进地使两国经济体制趋同、采取切实有效的措施扩大投资规模和商品出口并在入世问题上协调一致 ,才能使双方经贸合作关系再上新台阶。     

俄罗斯政治制度变迁与中国转型

俄罗斯的政治制度变迁有其特殊性,其当代的政治体制用“委任民主”、“可控民主”来界定有其合理性。目前,中国的转型是转型国家中成功的特例之一。虽然中国与俄罗斯在整体社会变迁的前提上具有同质性,但转型采取的路径不同,因而表现也有差异。中国应在汲取俄的教训及吸收自己阶段性成功经验的基础上进行新的尝试。     

俄罗斯经济形势分析

一 普京执政以来俄罗斯经济形势的特点 1.经济走出危机,进入复苏性增长期.1999～2002年经济一直在增长.     

关于俄罗斯经济增长趋势

俄罗斯经济实现稳步增长,即年增长率达到5%～6%或者更高,存在一系列问题,我想着重就俄经济改革和控制通货膨胀对经济的影响谈一点情况和看法.     

1999年俄罗斯经济政策的重大调整及经济形势评估

１９９９年初,俄罗斯政府实行了“经济协议政策”,①制止了经济危机的发展。随着经济形势的好转,俄罗斯对经济政策进行了进一步调整,重点是加强财政－税收政策。俄罗斯经济虽有好转,但问题很多,十分脆弱,卢布继续走低已成定局,而议会和总统选举都会给经济带来影响,俄罗斯经济形势的发展成为国际关注的热点。     

俄东部交通基础设施大建设对黑龙江省与俄经贸合作的影响

俄罗斯70%的领土位于亚洲,亚太地区经济的快速发展对俄罗斯产生了重要影响,因此俄政府愈来愈重视与亚太毗邻的东部地区的经济发展。但长期以来,由于政策缺乏连续性、资金投入不足等原因,俄东部地区经济发展缓慢。而制约其经济发展的一个主要因素就是交通基础设施落后。目前,俄领导人已意识到要发展经济必先大力改善交通基础设施状况。黑龙江省积极参与俄东部地区交通基础设施大建设必然会提升对俄经贸合作水平。     

The difficulty of measuring support for democracy in a changing society: evidence from Russia

Measuring support for democracy in societies where democratic institutions do not exist or do not function well is a challenge faced by many researchers around the world. In societies moving either toward or away from democracy, the very meaning of ‘democracy’ is often in question and institutions and practices that go by the label of ‘democratic’ may vary widely from accepted norms. As a result, respondents are likely to interpret survey questions on democratic concepts in unpredictable ways. This article examines some of the ways respondents in non-democratic or imperfectly democratic countries may misinterpret the meaning of survey questions and consequently how their answers may mislead researchers. Previous research has focused on problems with abstract concepts like ‘democracy’. Evidence presented here – from interviews with Russians – shows that the problem is broader and covers more kinds of questions than previously thought. A strong potential for miscommunication also exists with more concrete questions about institutions and values, forced choices that encourage respondents to change the meaning of questions, and questions about trust in institutions.     

俄罗斯与乌克兰经贸合作关系论析

俄罗斯与乌克兰的经贸合作关系问题,是研究俄乌两国关系的重要方面,也是在独联体问题上被关注的焦点之一.本文以翔实的资料为基础,在简要回顾俄乌经贸合作关系的发展历程以及分析两国经贸合作关系的发展现状与问题的基础上,着重分析研究了俄乌两国经贸合作关系的发展趋势与前景,并对一些具体合作领域的未来发展作了展望和判断.认为俄罗斯与乌克兰今后仍将是互为最重要的经济合作伙伴,两国经贸合作关系的发展前景依然总体看好.     

俄罗斯汇率政策调整与经济增长

3月中旬俄罗斯中央银行行长易人,这并非简单的人事变动,而是俄经济政策进行调整的重要举措之一.它意味着俄过去三年所奉行的以稳定卢布汇率为重点的宏观调控政策已告结束,随市场需求自由浮动的汇率政策正在走向前台.     

俄罗斯经济步入增长期,但其增长的基础尚不牢固

与前三年相比,俄罗斯经济有了很大的变化,这主要体现在:经济已走出危机,步入增长期.得出这个结论性看法的主要依据如下: