The Dutch parliamentary election of May 1986

After a rather uneventful election campaign, the results of the May 1986 Dutch parliamentary election were a surprise to virtually all involved. Since the introduction of regular opinion polling in the 1960s, no election has taken place when the polls were ‘wrong’. However, in 1986 last minute shifts that were stronger than had ever occurred in the Netherlands produced results that differed significantly from the predictions based upon the polls published immediately prior to the election.     

The Icelandic parliamentary election of 1987

In the election to the Althingi on 25 April 1987, the established party system in Iceland received its greatest blow so far. The four main parties between them managed only three-quarters of the valid votes, the Independence Party and the People's Alliance, both suffered their worst defeats ever. The new parties had a field day, as the Citizens' Party—the first major splinter group from the large Independence Party since its foundation—and the Women's Alliance received over 10 per cent of the votes each. Thus, the signs of crisis in the established party system—increasingly visible since around 1970—indicate an uncertain future for the four-party format in Icelandic politics.     

The Danish parliamentary election of 1981

The parliamentary election of 8 December 1981 brought no solution to Denmark's perennial problem of unstable minority government. On the contrary, the election weakened the Social Democratic government without significantly strengthening the Liberal-Conservative opposition. Electoral victory went to two relatively small parties, the People's Socialists on the left and Centre Democrats to the right of the centre. The election was followed by a two weeks' government crisis, after which the Prime Minister Anker Jørgensen reassumed the office which he has occupied continuously since January 1975.     

Never a dull moment: Pim Fortuyn and the Dutch parliamentary election of 2002

The 2002 parliamentary election in the Netherlands will always be associated with the name of Pim Fortuyn. His murder only nine days before the election was the first political assassination in the Netherlands in more than 300 years. The sudden success of the new party he had founded, coupled with the major losses for the Labour and Liberal parties, made this an historic election. This article attempts to understand the motivations of the voters at this election, in particular the voters of the List Pim Fortuyn (LPF). It is first shown that the conventional wisdom, which assumes voting based on religion and social class, and voting along ideological issue lines, has lost its ability to explain voter behaviour in the Netherlands. An explanation based on retrospective economic voting is also rejected. The success of the LPF is accounted for by the popularity of Fortuyn and his appeal among those who had cynical attitudes towards government or who were dissatisfied with the performance of the incumbent government. The popularity of Fortuyn is shown to have been related to political issues, in particular those relating to asylum seekers and the integration of foreigners in the country.