Forecasts of the 2004 French European Election

The purpose of this article is to build and to estimate a model which explains and forecasts the outcomes of the French European elections by department, by electoral district and at the national level. The model is accurate in forecasting the elections of the past. Its forecasts for the 2004 French European election are satisfactory and take into account the recent changes in the voting system.     

Forecasting the 2016 General Election in Jamaica

The objective of the article is to explain the methodologies and the findings of the 2016 Jamaican General Election forecasts. The Good Judgment Project’s CHAMPSKNOW system was applied using qualitative and quantitative methods. The research question was: what were the probabilities of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) or the People’s National Party (PNP) winning the 25 February 2016 General Election? The data were drawn from election results and macro-economic variables from 1962 to 2015; polls from 1976 to 2016; campaign ads; election newspaper stories; constituency fund disbursements and independent surveys in marginal seats. The results showed that the JLP had a greater number of ads with better and clearer policy contents than the PNP ads. The JLP also received more positive news coverage during the campaign. MPs who spent a large part of their constituency funds on welfare were more likely to win. The PNP had more garrison, traditional and marginal seats than the JLP so the PNP had the edge. Moreover, the data from the independent surveys and the macro-economic analyses indicated the likelihood of a PNP win. The national polls revealed a statistical dead heat but the forecasts started with the governing PNP having a slightly greater probability of winning because of its active political business cycle in which the PNP was rolling out programmes throughout the country in the election year. The forecasts were revised when the JLP narrowed the gap because the PNP refused to participate in the national debate, which generated negative news about the PNP. The final forecast said the election would be close with the PNP having the edge. However, the JLP’s tax plan was a wild card, which gave the party the edge with a one-seat victory.     

泰国民主政治的怪圈

泰国实行宪政以来经历了多次军人政权和民选政权的交替,形成了政治循环的怪圈,而且每个周期的更替多伴随着暴力冲突和政治动乱.近两年来,泰国政治进入了新一轮循环周期,政治动荡更是此起彼伏.本文重点回顾了2008年的政治危机,分析了危机的根源,并对泰国政治制度发展前景作出预测.     

金融危机背景下的中日中小企业合作：现状、问题和对策

近年来，中日中小企业合作成为中日经贸合作的新热点。首先分析了中日中小企业合作开展的背景，然后从日本中小企业对华投资、中日中小企业政策对话等几方面阐述了中日中小企业合作的现状及存在的主要问题，最后在上述分析的基础上提出了促进中日中小企业合作的政策建议，并展望了金融危机背景下中日中小企业合作的发展前景。     

曼德勒华人的语言生活

缅甸曼德勒华人占该市人口的十分之一,语言格局多样,单语缅语、单语云南话都很常见,另外还有普通话、闽粤客话、傣语等.本文通过考察场所与使用者,描述了曼德勒华人的语言现状与竞争,预测了变化趋势,以此观照世界华人的语言生活,对其变更给予社会语言学与语言本体学的解释.     

Forecasting the 2013 German Bundestag Election Using Many Polls and Historical Election Results

This article reports on an attempt to forecast the outcome of the 2013 election to the German Bundestag. In contrast to the predominant academic approach to forecast incumbent vote shares from measures of government popularity, economic conditions and other fundamental variables, we entirely relied on data from published trial heat polls. Opposite to common practice in the news media, we did not take isolated polls as election forecasts in their own right. Instead, we used historical data to assess empirically the relationship between polls and election outcomes, and combined extrapolations from current polls in a Bayesian manner. The forecast was published one month ahead of the election. The retrospective evaluation of our method was added after the election. While our method is parsimonious and provides a large lead time, the performance at the 2013 election was underwhelming. We offer additional suggestions how the approach can be improved in future scenarios.     

Forecasting US–China Relations, 2015

Abstract

Rejecting the certainty of prediction in favor of a probabilistic approach to forecasting, this paper develops an eight-step forecasting methodology, addressing 1) structural drivers, 2) predetermined elements, 3) critical uncertainties, 4) chance, 5) scenarios, 6) probabilities, 7) signposts, and 8) policy implications, and applies it to the medium-term future of US–China relations. Specifically, it forecasts a 45 percent chance that US–China relations in 2015 will be best characterized overall by a rivals scenario, followed by a 35 percent chance that the US and China will be partners. The chances that the US and China will be allies or enemies are significantly more remote, but real, at 5 percent and 15 percent respectively.     

Japan's Economy and the Global Financial Crisis

After the prolonged stagnation that followed the post-Bubble economic collapse at the end of the 1980s, from 2002 onwards the Japanese economy exhibited its longest period of economic expansion (albeit gradual) since World War Two. As this expansion came to an end and the economy was on the verge of the downward curve of the economic cycle, it was confronted with the current financial and economic crises, which originated in the USA. Nevertheless, Japanese financial institutions had invested little in sub-prime-related financial products, and with the lessons learned from the issue of bad loans in the 1990s, Japan's financial system enjoyed greater stability than that of any other major nation. However, in the period from the end of 2008 to early 2009, Japan experienced the sharpest economic decline of any major nation.

Yet, with the worst period having ended in the spring of 2009, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted in its October 2009 forecasts that Japan will experience real economic growth of 1.7% in 2010—a higher rate than the USA (with 1.5%) or the Euro Zone (with 0.3%). Despite forecasts of a protraction of excessive US imports as a direct result of excessive US consumption, Japan is being forced to reduce its degree of reliance on exports to the USA and to make major adjustments to its export structure—both in terms of the regions to which it exports and the products that it exports. Japan also faces the task of setting itself on the path to economic growth, using the twin drivers of foreign demand and domestic demand, and this will necessitate the cultivation of domestic demand. Now, the long-term strategy for Japan is to promote the expansion of regional demand in Asia, to couple this regional demand with domestic demand, and to latch on to Asia's economic dynamism.     

Forecasting the 2005 General Election: A Neural Network Approach

Although neural networks are increasingly used in a variety of disciplines there are few applications in political science. Approaches to electoral forecasting traditionally employ some form of linear regression modelling. By contrast, neural networks offer the opportunity to consider also the non-linear aspects of the process, promising a better performance, efficacy and flexibility. The initial development of this approach preceded the 2001 general election and models correctly predicted a Labour victory. The original data used for training and testing the network were based on the responses of two experts to a set of questions covering each general election held since 1835 up to 1997. To bring the model up to date, 2001 election data were added to the training set and two separate neural networks were trained using the views of our original two experts. To generate a forecast for the forthcoming general election, answers to the same questions about the performance of parties during the current parliament, obtained from a further 35 expert respondents, were offered to the neural networks. Both models, with slightly different probabilities, forecast another Labour victory. Modelling electoral forecasts using neural networks is at an early stage of development but the method is to be adapted to forecast party shares in local council elections. The greater frequency of such elections will offer better opportunities for training and testing the neural networks.     

Alleviating poverty through resource provision: The case of a South African agricultural project

The article documents the findings of a qualitative study that assessed the sustainability of providing resources for poverty alleviation. It argues that access to resources does not assure livelihood security. The study also argues that the ability to sustain resources, rather than merely facilitating access, assures poverty alleviation and livelihood security. Using a qualitative research method and the sustainable livelihoods approach, the article assesses the activities and performance of a small group of women in a government-sponsored agricultural project. The findings reveal that exited projects struggle to sustain themselves and that assetting alone – without skills, capacity, sense of ownership and a clear focus – does not yield the sustainability necessary for poverty alleviation. The conclusion is made that although resources are a necessary first step towards poverty alleviation, sustainable resource management should be highly valued in the process. The article recommends that agriculture-based development projects not be seen as the only option for the rural poor, as knowledge of farming is indeed crucial.     

A Dawn of Two-Party System in Japanese Politics?: The Emergence of the Democratic Party of Japan

The long rule of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has finally ended, and the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has captured government. This article is to examine why and how that has ended and what are the major factors which have contributed to the change of government. The inability of Japanese opposition parties to capture government has been discussed for a long time. The first part of this article is to examine the strength and weakness of major structural explanations which have been discussed in existing literature. Then, the article proposes a process-level analysis which takes a synergistic effect among institution, strategy and chance seriously. The second part of the article is a short history of the emergence of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) as a ruling party. The history will start with a formation of a small political party in September 1996,and describe how a new single-member electoral system shaped the incentives of political actors, how they worked out political strategy under the new system, and how chance affect the success or failure of political strategy.     

从文化共同体到后古典民族国家:德国民族国家演进浅析

长期封建割据造成德国民族国家的形成晚于英、法等传统西方国家。其建立民族国家的路径是先有民族,后有国家。德国民族国家是建立在由血缘、历史、语言、文化等要素构成的"文化共同体"的基础上,这一文化共同体同时也构成了德国民族认同的核心要素。受到历史和地缘政治因素的影响,德国民族国家的发展道路较为特殊,这也决定了其融入西方过程的曲折与漫长。20世纪90年代,两德重新统一后,德国与其他欧盟成员国一样进入后古典民族国家形态,将主权部分地让渡给超国家共同体。德国民族国家目前需要解决的是欧盟治理结构中的"新德国问题"。     

The “Nanny”, the “Fighter,” and the “Puppet”: a Brief Political Biographical History of Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor Including the Earliest Days of Her Chief Executive Appointment

Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor has broken many ceilings as Hong Kong’s first female Chief Executive and the first post-Occupy Central leader. The mission of the political biographer is to contextualize Lam’s policies in the circumstances that she was put into and/or inherited from previous administrations without any value judgments (or highly minimized ones). The purpose is to recognize Lam as a complex entity characterized by a triad of images that include caring a senior civil servant, a tough-talking iron lady (nicknamed “The Fighter”) and a compliant Beijing loyalist (nicknamed “The Puppet” or “CY Leung 2.0”). The readers are the ultimate arbiters and evaluators of these narratives and perceptions to craft their own impression of Lam. The writing is organized into sections analyzing Lam’s family background, her rise in the civil service, her appointment as Chief Secretary, and her current tenure as the Chief Executive. The significance of this writing is an early assessment of Lam’s achievements and policy direction and a recount of her initiatives when she was Chief Secretary that can later be compared to post-administration retirement biographical writings for a full understanding of her political achievements and failures. Taken together, these accounts can then be a combined diachronic and synchronic historical biographical accounts of Lam.     

The Theological Underpinnings of Australia's Constitutional Separation of Church and State Provision

The Australian Constitution contains two provisions concerning religion: a reference to “Almighty God” in the preamble and a provision denying the Federal Parliament power to legislate in respect of religion. The inclusion of those two provisions by the National Australasian Convention, which met from 1897 to 1898 to draft the Australian Constitution, was in large measure a result of political campaigns undertaken by competing religious groups. The first group, the Councils of Churches in each colony representing the main Protestant denominations, agitated for a constitutional “recognition” of God. The second group, the Seventh Day Adventists, campaigned against any constitutional recognition of God and for the inclusion of a provision limiting the Federal Government's power in respect of religion. The Adventists held fears that constitutional “recognition” of God would empower the federal parliament to pass nation‐wide Sunday observance laws. This article explores the theological and legal thinking of the Seventh Day Adventists to explain how they came to believe what, on a strict legal analysis, was highly implausible.     

Code-switching as a Strategy for the Decolonisation of Learning: A Case of One University in Swaziland

Although the call for the decolonisation of learning and an African renaissance has been a common trend in research recently, less attention has been paid to code-switching as a strategy for decolonising learning at universities. This article explores code-switching as a strategy for decolonising learning at a private university in Swaziland. The article addresses two questions: 1) What are students’ experiences of code-switching during Englishmedium lectures? 2) What are the students’ perceptions of code-switching during Englishmedium lectures? Data were collected using a mixed methods, single case study among a purposive sample of 30 first-year Bachelor of Education in Mathematics students at a private university in Swaziland. The findings indicated that students code switch to solidify pedagogical content presented in English during lectures. The findings also indicated that students employ code-switching as a strategy for breaking linguistic barriers imposed by the English language. Finally, the findings indicated that students describe code-switching as an invaluable strategy for decolonising learning at university. The study contributed in a unique way to knowledge because it is the first of this kind to explore decolonisation at a Swazi university—hence it does not only add to the growing body of literature—but also pioneers scholarship on the decolonisation of learning at Swazi universities. The article concludes by suggesting a student-centred approach to learning that embraces code-switching as a strategy for decolonising learning at the university.     

A Youth Counter-Narrative on Trafficking and Smuggling from Africa to Europe

This article features the personal experiences of a young African woman victim of trafficking and smuggling from Nigeria to Italy. The aim of the article is to provide a counter-narrative on the phenomenon of human trafficking, by engaging with the youth’s lived experiences. The story forms part of a wider database of youth counter-narratives, gathered by the authors in different parts of the world (Italy, South Africa, and Ethiopia). The narrative will be discussed on the basis of four identified elements, and the reflection addresses them within the wider context of trafficking, smuggling, and human migration. The conclusion drawn is that the language of youth counter-narratives can represent a useful tool to address the complexity of social issues, in particular when they refer to lived experiences of youngsters who have been subjected to different forms of oppression and violence. It also represents a sort of liberation from cultural homogenisation, forcing the readers to engage with a “new humanism.”     

An internal history of the communist party of Thailand

This is a translation of a history of the Communist Party of Thailand, written by a leading party member in 1978. The Thai original was published for the first time in early 2003. The document begins with a background analysis of Thai society, then traces the party's history from the 1920s, and ends with the “lessons” learnt. The document is especially detailed on the party's adoption and adaptation of the Maoist strategy of rural armed struggle.     

The Logic of the Apocalypse: A Clerical Rejoinder

Apocalyptic and millennial rhetoric is recycled in countless contemporary literary and cinematic works and is central in versions of progressive political critique. The first part of this essay describes Cormac McCarthy’s The Road as a dystopian allegory mired in Judeo-Christian temporality and which, as a consequence, promotes a sentimental version of human salvation. The second considers the ways in which analogous renditions of catastrophism permeate (new) new left social and political critique. It argues that apocalyptic imagery and discursive structures stunt analysis by indulging simplistic patterns of history and event. The final section of the essay documents a project by Johannesburg-based artist, Jacki McInnes, and the photographer, John Hodgkiss, concerning the lives of the city’s informal recyclers. Their daily journeys are presented in (discursive and visual) counterpoint to the epic southward trek of the father and son in The Road. “Recycling” is presented as a trope of a contrary temporality, which suggests some of the ways in which apocalyptic logic is too teleological to capture the complexities of the lived realities of late-capitalism.     

Die Wiederherstellung des Marktsubjekts

The UK is generally considered a laboratory for styles of governance influenced by New Public Management: outsourcing, internal markets, targets, auditing. The shifts in governance style, and the new instruments that have accompanied them, were once synonymous with “Thatcherism” but have since been adopted and refined by New Labour. Early critical social scientific analyses deployed the Gramscian notion of hegemony to analyse this shift. This was followed by Foucault inspired analyses of “governmentality”. The latter focused more explicitly on the micro-level of conduct. This article follows that lead, but seeks to address the central puzzles thrown up by this experiment through Max Weber’s conception of a “bureaucratic revolution” and Karl Polanyi’s analysis of the constitution of a “market subject” via a “double movement”: a simultaneous loosening and tightening of control. The Weber-Polanyi approach allows us, we argue, to make the link more explicit between micro-level changes in the “conduct of life” (Lebensführung) and the meso-level instruments designed to bring about such a re-orientation of conduct. The article makes the case with reference to empirical material from a number of public services, notably education and health. Overall, the decisive factor is not a weakening of the state, but a change in its capacities and instruments.     

Technology transformation and changing demographic patterns: Perspectives for Africa’s future elections

The last decade of the 21st century has so far seen many important elections on the African continent. These elections offer windows for the development of democracy and freedom throughout the continent. The same period has been characterised by a burgeoning population, estimated to be over one billion. The rapid growth in population has fuelled a quick growth in the number of eligible voters. Around the same period, another increase has been under way: evolving new technology penetration in electoral management systems. The introduction of innovative technologies into the electoral management systems (prior, during and post-election) has raised both interest and concerns. This review article provides insights into, and a critique of the role of emerging technologies in Africa’s electoral managements systems. The article taps on some of the best practices of modern technology applications in the electoral process. Some of the areas of focus in this article include constituency delimitation, political party registration, voter registration, voting operations and stakeholder engagements. The discussion denotes a rising recognition and use of new technologies in these areas to improve efficiency, ensure credibility of democratic processes and reliability of election results. The literature engages with a mixture of successes and failures, improvements and challenges, innovations and obstacles in the context of countryspecific electoral systems technological applications.