A Political Economy Forecast for the 2005 British General Election

Recently, we proposed an original statistical model for forecasting general elections in the United Kingdom, based on the observation of a few key indicators of the political and economic system. That vote function model was tested against the results of the 2001 general election. Here we evaluate the results of that test, and offer an appropriately revised model for the forecasting of the upcoming 2005 general election. According to our forecast, a Labour victory appears the most likely outcome.     

Forecasting the 2005 General Election: A Neural Network Approach

Although neural networks are increasingly used in a variety of disciplines there are few applications in political science. Approaches to electoral forecasting traditionally employ some form of linear regression modelling. By contrast, neural networks offer the opportunity to consider also the non-linear aspects of the process, promising a better performance, efficacy and flexibility. The initial development of this approach preceded the 2001 general election and models correctly predicted a Labour victory. The original data used for training and testing the network were based on the responses of two experts to a set of questions covering each general election held since 1835 up to 1997. To bring the model up to date, 2001 election data were added to the training set and two separate neural networks were trained using the views of our original two experts. To generate a forecast for the forthcoming general election, answers to the same questions about the performance of parties during the current parliament, obtained from a further 35 expert respondents, were offered to the neural networks. Both models, with slightly different probabilities, forecast another Labour victory. Modelling electoral forecasts using neural networks is at an early stage of development but the method is to be adapted to forecast party shares in local council elections. The greater frequency of such elections will offer better opportunities for training and testing the neural networks.     

Forecasts of the 2004 French European Election

The purpose of this article is to build and to estimate a model which explains and forecasts the outcomes of the French European elections by department, by electoral district and at the national level. The model is accurate in forecasting the elections of the past. Its forecasts for the 2004 French European election are satisfactory and take into account the recent changes in the voting system.     

Using Data Combination of Fundamental Variable-Based Forecasts and Poll-Based Forecasts to Predict the 2013 German Election

In this paper I present an election forecasting approach to predict the vote share of the governing coalition in German national elections. The model is composed of two independent prediction components: the first is based on poll data, the second on fundamental variables. Both approaches have their advantages and disadvantages when used in isolation. The basic idea is to use both and find a better informed overall forecast. The predictions are combined using a shrinkage estimator, where the predictions are weighted by their respective prediction uncertainty. The uncertainty of the poll prediction is modelled time-dependent. The result is a dynamic model allowing for predictions longer before the elections highly relying on fundamental variables. With the elections coming closer predictions rely more and more on the polling data.     

印度大选:结果何以如此?

2004年5月13日公布的印度大选结果令人颇感意外.雄心勃勃的执政党印度人民党败北,稳扎稳打的国大党胜出.这一结果似乎有悖于全国民主联盟执政时的"辉煌"成绩.本文从影响选举的七个主要因素,即政党的政绩或历史、政党的施政纲领、施政纲领或口号的传播程度、利益集团与捐献额度、投票手段、个人魅力及政党联盟等出发,并结合印度的政治制度等具体背景,对印度的选举结果进行了分析.     

印尼大选透视

印尼 6月 7日大选在公开、公正情况下顺利完成 ,国际社会逐渐对印尼恢复信心。国内政治趋于稳定 ,经济出现好转迹象 ,民众的信心也逐步恢复。大选产生五个大党 ,但没有一个政党占优势 ,组成联合政府势在必行。大选是议席和权力再分配的过程 ,谁当总统 ?梅加瓦蒂和哈比比成为焦点人物 ,这个谜要到 10月才能解开。     

印尼政局发展与全国大选展望

梅加瓦蒂上台执政两年半,政权进一步巩固.2003年是印尼政局进一步稳定,经济复苏开始见效,社会治安逐步好转的一年.2004年是大选年,现在准备工作顺利进行,人们对大选寄予较大的期望.近年印尼政局发展如何,议会选举和总统直选谁将胜出?本文试图就这些问题,与读者共同探讨.     

2004年印尼大选与华人参选情况

2004年印尼大选是印尼历史上的第三次民主选举,印尼全国和国际社会都在关注这次大选.本文首先介绍这次大选的一些基本情况,然后对这次选举有关立法和准备过程中暴露出的一些问题略加分析,最后介绍印尼华人参选的一些情况.     

乌克兰选举与大国地缘政治

2004年乌克兰总统大选触发政治危机,有其深刻的国内背景。历史和经济发展的不平衡造成西部和东部的尖锐对立,而尤先科和亚努科维奇分别代表西、东部的利益。而最近几年的发展导致乌克兰人民中普遍存在对现实和当政者不满的情绪。俄美欧等大国在乌克兰政治危机的表现深刻地反映了大国地缘政治战略在乌克兰的博弈。未来乌克兰局势存在种种变数,也留下了种种思考,最终结局取决于乌克兰人民的选择和大国力量的对比,取决于俄美两国战略家们的理智和判断力。     

大选后的斯里兰卡政治形势

自由党和人民解放阵线组成的新党--统一人民自由联盟在斯里兰卡第十三届议会选举中获胜,使僧伽罗人的极端民族主义势力取得了执政党的地位,而代表泰米尔猛虎组织参选的泰米尔国民联盟和推举佛教僧侣直接参加选举的僧伽罗民族传统党也进入了议会,又使斯里兰卡议会实际上成了僧伽罗人和泰米尔人民族冲突直接对撞的场所.在这种复杂的政治局面下,库马拉通加夫人要推进和平进程可能会遇到更大困难,新的政治危机仍然可能出现.     

缅甸2010年大选前的政治经济形势

缅甸2010年大选在即,除了对外关系上与美国的关系出现转机之外,其国内政治经济形势也很值得分析.首先是民主运动节节退却,民盟将不参加大选;种族骚乱有惊无险,包括果敢在内的三支少数民族地方武装已经被改编成边防军;经济上受惠于宽松的环境,也取得了较大的发展.     

解析印尼国会和总统选举形势及其影响

2004年印尼国会和总统直接选举已经拉开序幕,前苏哈托政权势力、改革派势力和伊斯兰势力成为大选的主角,但是竞选资金、政党网络和竞选策略将决定谁是大选的胜利者.现任总统梅加瓦蒂要想再次问鼎总统宝座决非易事.本届大选将是对印尼选民的政治热情、印尼的治安和反恐形势的一次严峻考验,同时也将对美国的全球战略有一定的影响.     

Newspaper Representation of the Debates in the 2007 Jamaican General Election Campaign

This article deconstructs the newspaper representations of three debates held in 2007 during the Jamaican General Election campaign. The theory of social representation is used in this article to explain political behaviour and outcomes. Representations are the images, words, symbols or phrases that are generated from people's dialogic interaction that signify meanings. Content analysis of relevant articles covering the electoral campaign in the main print media in Jamaica forms the empirical basis for study. The majority of representations of the three main debates were negative, revealing that political manifestos were largely ignored and policy funding was not addressed. Significant issues such as crime, education, health, garrison politics, corruption and unemployment were inadequately addressed, and the wider global context of these matters was ignored. The consensus was that the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) won two of the three debates, notably the leadership debate in which the Leader of the Opposition, Bruce Golding MP, performed more effectively than the then current Prime Minister, Portia Simpson‐Miller of the People's National Party (PNP). Social representation theory is used to assess the types of political meanings generated by media coverage during the General Election. It is suggested that the perceived success of the JLP candidates in the main debates was an important contribution to the party's overall electoral victory.     

印尼、马来西亚大选后的政治与经济情况述评

印尼与马来西亚是同文同种并具有共同宗教信仰的国家,国情也有许多相似之处.2004年是两国的大选年,大选后马来西亚巴达维政权稳固发展,印尼苏西洛新政府加大反贪反恐和重建经济的力度,两国将步入稳定发展时期.     

第13届国会选举前夕的马来西亚:选举型威权的终结?

无论第13届国会选举结果如何,马来西亚50多年来的选举型威权体制正在走向松动:巫统已经不像以往那样能完全操控选举结果,一党独大的局面已有所改观,两大政治阵营的竞争体制(即"两线制")正在成为马来西亚政治生态的基本格局。为赢得国会选举、挽救巫统主导的国民阵线的执政地位,纳吉布首相实施了一系列亲民政策,但这些政策能否消解长期以来人民对巫统威权体制的积怨尚不得而知。在反对派人民联盟一方,他们其实也没有显示出成熟的替代执政能力,他们最大的政治资本是人民对巫统威权的厌倦。     

2010年缅甸大选与缅甸外交

通过对缅甸对外关系的历史回顾以及对缅甸全国民主联盟拒绝登记和参选结果的逻辑分析,本文认为即将到来的缅甸大选无论其结果如何,都不会对缅甸现在的对外关系产生多大的影响.美国和欧盟都将继续维持对缅甸的制裁政策,印度、中国与东盟其他国家则将继续维持与缅甸的接触政策.东盟一些国家可能会对缅甸施压,但不会采取制裁行动,因为制裁只能将缅甸推向中国和印度,这是他们所不愿看到的.     

2008年大选后马来西亚政党政治的走势

2008年大选后,马来西亚执政党近四十年来在国会中的绝对优势被打破,一党独大制正在受到日益增大的转型压力.国民阵线面临着如何重塑执政合法性的问题,而反对党则会在加强联合的基础上进一步向执政党发起挑战.但在新的形势下执政党仍然具有较强的制度韧性,凭借其结构性优势还能继续执政,真正意义上的两线制或两党制短期内难以确立.     

“外围团体”对2012年美国大选的影响

与以往历次大选相比,2012年美国大选的突出特点是在公民言论自由的大旗下,以超级政治行动委员会为代表的各种"外围团体"为开展选举政治宣传而筹措和花费巨资。"外围团体"现象是当代美国选举财务改革遭受重大挫折的显著标志,它严重地背离了美国联邦宪法所崇尚的基本价值,使美国的宪政民主制度陷入政治、法理和道德的三重困境之中,因而遭到美国多数民众的反对。事实证明,这种现象的实质是美国资本主义寡头集团对公共政策制定过程的控制,而绝非大多数美国公民民主权利的真正体现。