Explaining Contextual Effects on Vote Choice

How are individual voters influenced by their social surroundings? Though numerous studies establish that voting behavior can be influenced by the social context, we lack a full understanding of how the actions of individual voters can be influenced by the composition of their social environment. In this paper, I develop and test a micro-level model of the operation of contextual influences on political behavior. The model specifies the effects of both personal contact and individual perception of the partisan nature of the local environment. The data show little support for personal contact as a mechanism of contextual influence, but reveal that perception of partisan dominance markedly enhances the impact of partisan identification on vote choice.     

Encouraging Political Defection: The Role of Personal Discussion Networks in Partisan Desertions to the Opposition Party and Perot Votes in 1992

Drawing on data from a unique study of the 1992 American presidential election, this article demonstrates that personal discussion networks influence voting behavior, independent of candidate evaluations and partisanship. These social networks encouraged two different kinds of defections from otherwise-expected behavior. People were more likely to vote for Perot if their personal discussants supported him and to convert preferences for him into a Perot vote on election day. Partisans also were more likely to defect to the other major party if their discussion network failed to fully support the candidate of their own party. These results withstood controls for candidate evaluations and partisanship as well as for selective exposure to discussants and selective perception of their preferences. They show the importance of adding social context to personal attitudes, interests, and partisanship in explaining voting behavior.     

Anthropology in demographic research

A questioning of the theoretical and methodological focus and strategies of sociodemographic research has been evident especially in Latin America since the 1970s. This work discusses the shortcomings of most current attempts to integrate anthropological and demographic approaches to population, and introduces eight articles on various aspects of population that appeared in the same publication. Most were first presented in a work session entitled "Anthropology in Sociodemographic Investigation" at the Thirteenth International Congress of Anthropological and Ethnological Sciences in 1993. The need to incorporate diverse dimensions of reality and different disciplinary perspectives in the explanation of demographic events and changes has been a significant preoccupation of sociodemography itself. A growing volume of studies of fertility, migration, processes of health and disease, sexuality, and the role of women, the family, and social institutions in reproduction, almost exclusively conducted at the micro level, reflect interest in incorporating anthropological viewpoints into sociodemographic analysis. An increasing number of scientific meetings and committees within population groups are devoted to the same themes. This introduction synthesizes the principal findings and recommendations of the eight articles, which examine very diverse topics using varied analytical approaches. All, however, offer reflections on the theoretical and methodological relevance of incorporating the anthropological perspective into sociodemographic investigation. Some also demonstrate the type of empirical findings that may result from a successful integration.     

The Radical Critique of Economic Inequality in Early American Political Thought

This article examines the ideological roots and historical development of an early radical economic egalitarian tradition in American political thought. It concentrates on a group of thinkers and social critics that were active from the 1820s through the beginning of the Civil War. Inspired by republican themes, they forged a radical critique of the emerging capitalist order and a skepticism of economic modernity. By reworking the republican political notion of an equality of social relations as an essential context for individual liberty, these radical critics posed a challenge to the emerging capitalist order. They would also be unique in the way that they analyzed the workings of this new economic system arguing that it was a mechanism that would systematically reproduce economic inequality eroding republican forms of government and society making them a distinct voice in America's egalitarian tradition.     

Persuasion,power and the conversational model

Several lines of study in the humanities and social sciences have drawn on the systematic analysis of the craft of persuasion given by texts in the rhetorical tradition. This review considers the usefulness of this tradition to a critical approach to relations between discourse and power. The books under review use rhetoric in literary study, in social psychology, and in studies of argument in a variety of social sciences, with varying degrees of success. I argue that rhetoric cannot provide a general methodology or basis for a political critique, but is can be useful if studies take into account the institutions in which discourse takes place, the conflicts constituting these institutions, and the excluded participants. Judging from the books under review, applications of the rhetorical tradition work best when they remain close to the practical problems of persuasion in a specific situation.     

A study in contrasts

In this personal view of a 'second generation' psychoanalyst in Vienna, private life events are counterposed to political and social developments in Austria over the last twenty-five years, leading up to the phenomenon of Jörg Haider and the recent formation of the new Austrian government including his Freedom Party (FPÖ). In particular, de Mendelssohn discusses the resurgence of openly antisemitic utterances and racist electoral platforms, both against the larger background of historical precedents and against the smaller one of a psychoanalytic study group set up to enquire into the unconscious motives and fantasies involved in this resurgence. Although the emergence of public prejudice is an alarming sign, de Mendelssohn points to mitigating factors. On the one hand there is the possibility of seeing Austria as a 'test case' for similar, often more actively violent eruptions in other European countries, one in which coping strategies may be developed while there is still time. Here he sees the EU sanctions against Austria as fully justified. On the other hand there is an active and younger generation and a solid history of civil protest that may help strengthen Austria's rather weak democratic traditions. As an analogue to Freud's individual psychoanalysis, in which the 'return of the repressed' is seen as a painful experience but necessary for insight and growth, the resurgence of quasi-racist politics in Austria may be seen as a necessary result of long years of being more or less taboo, with the hope that there can be a 'working through' of inter-generational dislocation and social amnesia.     

Unconscious Bias Training: The ‘Silver Bullet’ for Gender Equity?

Western Governments concerned about the lack of gender equity in their workforces are increasingly seeking to address the negative effects of unconscious biases on employment decisions to counter the effects of hidden prejudices. Although unconscious bias has received limited attention in the human resource literature, social psychology literature has identified inadequacies with this practice, including that such training may entrench and normalise unconscious biases. We argue that the popularity of unconscious bias training invites agencies to view this practice as a ‘silver bullet’ to achieve gender equity, but that its effectiveness is likely to be limited unless accompanied by sustained interventions to address discrimination. Further, the impacts of unconscious bias training need to be rigorously evaluated to assess whether government resources are being effectively utilised. Consistent with international research, such an evaluation may reveal that unconscious bias training has unintended negative consequences, but that the training can be improved to reduce these consequences.     

Between Psychoanalysis and Political Philosophy: Towards a Critical Theory of Political Myth

Abstract

This paper focuses on a specific aspect of political imaginaries: political myth. What are political myths? What role do they play within today's commoditized political imaginaries? What are the conditions for setting up a critique of them? We will address these questions, by putting forward a theory of political myth which situates itself between psycho analysis and political philosophy, in line with the tradition of critical theory that many still associate with the name of the Frankfurt School. We will first discuss the notion of political myth by illustrating the contribution of both disciplines to its understanding and then, through a discussion of the notion of social unconscious, we will apply this analysis to a contemporary example of political myth, that of a clash of civilizations.     

Taking Others into Account: Self‐Interest and Fairness in Majority Decision Making

Research on the formal properties of democratic aggregation mechanisms has a long tradition in political science. Recent theoretical developments, however, show that in the discussion of normative contents of democratic decisions, the actual shape of preferences deserves just as much attention. However, our knowledge about the concrete motivations of individual behavior in democratic decisions is incomplete. Using laboratory experiments, this article examines the existence of social preferences in majority decisions. Contrary to earlier experiments of committee decision making, we develop a design that controls for the conditions of communication and the level of information between subjects. This allows us to comparatively test the predictive power of several theories. We find strong evidence that self‐interest and fairness motivate human behavior in majority decisions.     

Conflict Avoidance and Political Participation

Previous explanations of mass participation have often focused on sociodemographic characteristics to the neglect of social psychological factors. This study takes a new path in thinking about the role of psychological factors in participation. Specifically, we hypothesize that individual propensities regarding conflict will influence the likelihood of participating in political affairs. We develop more specific expectations for how the avenue of participation interacts with individual propensities toward conflict to influence participation. Using secondary analysis of the Citizen Participation Study (CPS), we show that conflict avoidance is significantly and inversely related to participation in some kinds of activities, consistent with our expectations. Thus, both individual propensities and the political context influence participation. This study provides a new understanding of which individuals participate in political affairs and which avenues they choose. This suggests a need to reconsider the role of psychological factors in models of participation.     

An analysis of the changing social bases of America's political parties: 1952–2008

In this article I address two interrelated questions: have the group bases of the American political parties changed over time and what factors have lead to the observed changes? I determine social group memberships significantly influence individual partisanship with a multivariate analysis using 56 years of ANES data. I then measure how many votes each politically relevant social group contributed to the party coalitions in each presidential election from 1952 to 2008. I discuss how group contributions have changed over time and establish the demographic and behavioral causes of group contribution change. I find that the party coalitions have been restructured as a result of groups' changing voting behavior and the changing ratio of groups in the electorate.     

Social Distancing during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Who Are the Present and Future Noncompliers?

Social distancing is an effective means of containing the spread of COVID-19, but only if we all participate. Who are the individuals who are least likely to adhere to social distancing recommendations, presently and in the long term? Such knowledge is important for policy makers looking to sustain the public's buy-in to social distancing. Using survey data from a sample of U.S. residents (n = 1,449), the authors show that some demographic factors (gender, age, race, political party) help predict intent to adhere to social distancing. Yet demographic factors are relatively poor predictors compared with individual attitudes and media diets. Public officials should make efforts to inform and persuade the public of the importance of social distancing, targeting media such as television and radio, where audiences are less likely to currently engage in social distancing or are less likely to envision themselves sustaining strict social distancing for several weeks or months.     

Contagion Effects and Ethnic Contribution Networks

Many political behavior theories explicitly incorporate the idea that context matters in politics. Nonetheless, the concept of spatial dependence—in particular, that behavior in geographic units is somehow related to and affected by behavior in neighboring areas—is not extensively explored. The study of campaign finance is no exception. Research in this area concentrates on the attributes of the individual donor, leaving context underexplored. Concepts such as contribution networks, for instance, are not rigorously tested. This article reexamines the impact of conventional socio-demographic covariates on campaign donation behavior by ethnic contributors and explicitly models spatial effects. The spatial analysis reveals that patterns of campaign donations are geographically clustered (exhibiting both spatial dependence, implying a neighborhood effect, and spatial heterogeneity, implying a regional effect), and that this clustering cannot be explained completely by socioeconomic and demographic variables. While socio-demographic characteristics are important components of the dynamic underlying campaign contributions, there is also evidence consistent with a contagion effect whereby ethnic contribution networks are fueling funds to candidate coffers.     

Multidimensional Welfare Aggregation

Most accounts of welfare aggregation in the tradition ofArrow's (1951/1963) and Sen's (1970/1979)social-choice-theoretic frameworks represent the welfare of anindividual in terms of a single welfare ordering or a singlescalar-valued welfare function. I develop a multidimensionalgeneralization of Arrow's and Sen's frameworks, representingindividual welfare in terms of multiple personal welfarefunctions, corresponding to multiple `dimensions' of welfare.I show that, as in the one-dimensional case, the existence ofattractive aggregation procedures depends on certaininformational assumptions, specifically about themeasurability of welfare and its comparability not only acrossindividuals but also across dimensions. I state severalimpossibility and possibility results. Under Arrow-typeconditions, insufficient comparability across individualsleads to dictatorship of a single individual, whileinsufficient comparability across dimensions leads todominance of a single dimension. Given sufficientcomparability both across individuals and across dimensions, arange of possibilities emerges. I discuss the substantiveimplications of the results.     

A recycling story: Developing recycling behavior in Turkey with social marketing program

The present study focuses on improving recycling behavior in Turkey with a social marketing program. It is centered on behavior change and social marketing strategies that can address recycling behavior. The social marketing program developed herein outlines segmentation, targeting, product, price, place, and promotional strategies recommended based on theoretical elements across disciplines. This research is the first to develop a social marketing program for recycling behavior in a developing country at the household level. Furthermore, it is the first study in which behavioral change was ensured through marketing strategies. This article provides a framework that can be employed in developing social marketing programs. In this study, qualitative data collection tools and quantitative measurement data were used based on the action research design. Although there are studies in the literature that argue that women and those with undergraduate/graduate education show more recycling behavior than others, the results of the participant-level research in Turkey showed that there was no significant difference in recycling behavior based on the demographic characteristics of the participants. On the other hand, it has been found that the awareness levels of the people have changed in correspondence with the implementation-oriented efforts of the municipalities on recycling. However, there is a lack of recycling behavior due to the lack of necessary infrastructure and information in all regions in Turkey. One of the most important results obtained in this social marketing program study was that regional and cultural differences had a role in shaping the recycling behavior. This requires different strategies in implementing the program in different provinces, based on the culture and availability of recycling infrastructure. This article provides an example of a social marketing program to improve recycling behavior. It hopes to inspire significantly more work in this area to make behavior change for the better.     

Contextual Effects on Retrospective Economic Evaluations The Impact of the State and Local Economy

The theoretical premise of this study is that individual retrospective evaluations of the national economy, which have a clear impact on voting behavior in national elections, are influenced not only by the national economy but also by the state and local economic context. This hypothesis is tested by analyzing the effect that the unemployment rate in the individual's state and community has on the individual's retrospective evaluation of the national unemployment situation in 1992, using data from the 1992 American National Election Study survey, supplemented with data on the unemployment rate during the third quarter of 1992 for the respondent's community and state. The findings show that the state unemployment rate has a clear effect on retrospective evaluations of national economic conditions. This effect occurs apart from any effect on fear of unemployment, which is unaffected by the state unemployment rate. The community unemployment rate has little or no effect on retrospective economic evaluations, except for a small impact on personal unemployment experience. The contextual effect that we observe therefore is primarily sociotropic, not personal pocketbook, in nature. We suggest that the contextual patterning of information, perhaps especially through media reporting of economic conditions, is responsible for producing this effect.     

Comment on Dowell Myers and Elizabeth Gearin's “current preferences and future demand for denser residential environments”: In praise…or at least acceptance…of ambiguity

Abstract

It is clear that attempts to discern consumer attitudes toward neighborhood form yield only ambiguity. Denser, more walkable residential environments are impossible to define in a universally applicable manner because of the unique characteristics of an individual neighborhood and its relationship to a region's climate, tradition, and heritage. Consumer preferences are likewise ambiguous and contradictory; this is simply due to many Americans’ lack of personal familiarity with compact, walkable neighborhoods.     

Who supports tax limitations: Evidence from massachusetts' proposition 2½

The vote on Massachusetts' Proposition 2½—and by extension the votes to restrain or roll back taxes in other states as well—should not be interpreted simply as expressions of the narrowly defined self-interest of the voters. This study shows that other characteristics such as sex, race, religion, occupation, educational background, and political orientation also have an important influence on voting behavior. These characteristics combine with self-interest measures such as public sector employment and voters' likely gains from tax reduction to push individual voters in different directions on the issue of tax limitation. Consequently, we find little polarization in the electorate along demographic lines.     

The Terror that Failed: Public Opinion in the Aftermath of the Bombing in Oklahoma City

Did the bombing of the federal building in Oklahoma City affect the public's perception of terrorism as a political issue and their perceptions of individual risk and personal vulnerability? The author finds that the bombing in Oklahoma City altered neither the public's assessment of personal risk nor its reported behavior. Public opinion on terrorism and crime share three patterns: (1) perceived risk of victimization and the likely consequences affect public apprehension; (2) the voiced sense of personal security bears a direct relationship to the relative familiarity of the setting; and (3) the public shows resistance to the media's portrayal of risk. Opinion data indicate that domestic terrorism is likely to be seen as important in general and in the abstract, but with low personal risk, little impact on individuals' routine behavior, and, consequently, low political salience. In light of terrorism's purpose of inducing fear and the public's generally placid response on a personal level, the author concludes that the bombing failed as an act of domestic terrorism.