Is populism the third dimension? The quest for political alliances in post-crisis Spain

In this article, we defend the ideational approach to populism by arguing that populist discourses have consequences for government formation and the coalition choices of political parties. Using two attempts of government formation in Spain during 2016 as an example, we show that incorporating a populist dimension of competition alongside the two traditional relevant cleavages in Spain (left-right and center-periphery) can successfully explain agreements where approaches restricted to the two traditional dimensions fail. Essentially, populism forms a third, ideational dimension with its own content, one that can be considered alongside thick ideological dimensions in formal spatial analysis, shaping alliances among political parties.     

Beyond asymmetry: cooperation,conflict and globalisation in Mexico-China relations

Abstract

Academic commentary has long emphasised the asymmetry in Mexico-China relations. In particular, much attention has focussed since the early 1990s particularly from the Mexican side on the economic imbalance in trade and investment that has become and remains acute with the expansion of the economy of the People's Republic of China. This is though far from the only sense in which the relationship between the two countries is asymmetrical. There is also a severe imbalance in the relative importance of politics and economics as determinants of this relationship for both China and Mexico. The Mexican Government seems to be more concerned with its economic relationship with China. In contrast, the PRC Government seems more concerned with its political relationship with Mexico. Moreover, there is a further asymmetry in the respective significance that each appears to have to the other as a partner. Mexico plays a small role in China's outlook but China looms large in Mexico's worldview. Identification of a number of cross-cutting asymmetrical relationships suggests that a bilateral perspective may not be the most effective for understanding the interaction or potential interaction between Mexico and China. On the contrary, there is more logic to the elements of cooperation and conflict between Mexico and China when their relationship is viewed in the wider, multilateral context of globalisation.     

A simulation model of Mexican internal migration flows: empirical application of a spatial interaction model

"In this paper spatial interaction theory is challenged in order to test if it is suitable to support the design and construction of an operative model of the Mexican internal migration flows. The main conceptual and operative aspects of the model are presented, the design and model building process is explained, the results of the calibration analysis are examined and a simulation exercise of migration policy evaluation is undertaken. The operative migration model presented in this paper seems useful to analyze and evaluate numerous migration policies, which suggest that spatial interaction theory offers a promising conceptual and operative foundation to analyze internal migration flows in Mexico." (EXCERPT)     

The control of urban growth in Mexico City. Suppositions regarding poor planning

It is argued that mechanisms for planning land use and controlling urban expansion in Mexico City have failed to achieve their aims. Although in theory Mexico's urban planning process has recently attempted to go beyond purely physical aspects to include socioeconomic dimensions, it has in fact been inflexible and oriented to exclusively to technical and administrative aspects, to the detriment of social distribution goals. Planning instruments have not included important aspects such as specific mechanisms for altering employment structures or income levels or mechanisms for providing access to land or housing to the most disadvantaged groups. The urban planning process in Mexico City, instead of assuming a socially compensatory role in favor of disadvantaged groups, has maintained the status quo or discriminated in favor of the already advantaged. The spatial and technical orientation or urban planning in Mexico City does not leave room for a well-defined social policy. The population of the Mexico City metropolitan Zone increased from 3 million in 1950 to 18 million in 1985, while its total area increased from 11,750 hectares in 1940 to 125,000 in 1985. Transfer of population from the Federal District to the conurban municipios of the state of Mexico has been very significant since the 1970s. Around 20% of the total area of metropolitan Mexico City has been settled through illegal means, with communal and ejido lands accounting for a large share. Settlements on some 60% of lands in metroplitan Mexico City were illegal or irregular at some time. Low income housing is the cheapest form for the government because the frequently illegal status of settlers prevents them from making any demands for services or equipment for the 1st several years. Construction is undertaken and financed almost entirely by the settlers themselves, freeing the government of responsibility in regard to the constitutionally mandated right of all Mexicans to housing. The Urban Development Plan of the state of Mexico published in 1986 proposed 2 important programs for controlling urban growth. The territorial reserves program aimed to anticipate the need and make available through purchase, expropriation, or other means sufficient lands for housing to which the lowest income groups would share access. The "Paint Your Line" program establiished physical limits for urban expansion in each of the 17 conurban municipios in the State of Mexico. To date, however, few lands have been set aside for legal acquisition and the Paint Your Line program has been slow in delimiting the areas to be settled. Data from a 1989 study in the municipios of Chalco and Ixtapaluca demonstrate the shortcomings of the programs, which do not address the true processes and agents that control new settlements and especially illegal occupations and which fail to satisfy the needs of low-income population sectors.     

Analyzing partisanship in Central Mexico: A geographical approach

The article explores the relevance of socioeconomic variables on partisanship in Central Mexico for the 2006 presidential election. We perform an exploratory canonical correlation analysis, a predictive binomial logit analysis and a further confirmatory set of OLS regression analyses. The analyses are based on a data set that uses electoral results as well as census information, constructed as 1.6 km (one mile) radii GIS neighborhoods, which allow for the integration of electoral and census geographies. The results suggest that income and education do not always influence party preferences in the same direction. In particular in the case of the vote for the left leaning party, these two variables have contradicting effects.     

Population dynamics,urban structure,and production of living space in the metropolitan zone of Mexico City

"In this article, an attempt is made to account for certain trends in the growth and distribution of the population, and in the structuring of living space in the metropolitan zone of Mexico City.... Among the important conclusions of this essay are those having to do with the huge growth of some political-administrative units and the relation of this phenomenon to the practices followed by private realtors, often articulated with the policies and programs set by the State's housing agencies, as well as those that associate urban growth and expansion with the development of habitational spaces within the so-called 'formal' and 'informal' housing sectors." Data are from Mexican censuses and other official sources. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

The evolution of employment in Mexico: 1895-1980

Employment figures from the Mexican national census are the basis for this analysis of employment changes in Mexico between 1895-1980. The work identifies longterm trends in the volume and composition of employment and distinguishes 3 main periods in the evolution of employment. The first period, from 1895-1930, marked the end of a stage of development lasting until about 1907 in which sufficient internal stability was achieved to support Mexico's entrance into the world market. Export of agricultural products and metals was the principal focus of economic growth. Construction of roads and railroads was a central element of progress. But economic and social problems manifested in regional disparities, concentration of wealth, conflicts between economic sectors, low pay for agricultural workers, and fierce social and political control characterized the period and culminated in the Mexican Revolution. After the first decade of the 20th century the ability of the economy to absorb new workers began to decline, and the falling of crude activity rates was not reversed until the 1940s. During the 1920s, total employment increased less than 6%, reflecting a net increase of 403,000 male workers and a decrease of 110,000 female workers. The second major period of employment from 1930-1970 saw the change from an economy based on export of primary products to one based on manufacturing for the internal market. There were 2 subperiods, a stage of transition from 1930-50, the economy registered marked fluctuations, but by the 1940s the consolidation of state power and important reforms permitting expansion of the internal market were factors in an accelerated growth of employment relative to the preceding intercensal period. Despite considerable increases in agricultural employment, the relative share of the agricultural sector in total employment was beginning a decline. Employment registered the highest growth rates of the century in the 1940s and exceeded population growth. The increased employment was explained by accelerated growth and accumulation in manufacturing along with increases in commerce, services, construction, and agriculture. From 1950-70, industrial development was consolidated, and there was a generalized expansion in employment in manufacturing as well as in the secondary and tertiary sectors. The economy was less able to absorb new labor, primarily because the agricultural sector had reached the limits of expansion in both the commercial and peasant sector by 1965, at just the time that population growth was most rapid. During the 1970s, manufacturing employment grew less rapidly because of modernization, almost exclusive orientation to the internal market which limited expansion, and scarcity of funds for importing capital goods. A new model of growth will be needed if Mexico is to escape its present stagnation, and a significant share of economic activity will need to be oriented to export. Until this process is consolidated, the national economy is unlikely to show signs of sustained recuperation.     

Social analysis,project development and advocacy in U.S. foreign assistance

In 1975 the U.S. Agency for International Development (AID), the principal administrative agent for American bilateral development assistance, mandated a social analysis component to the project preparation and approval process.¹ Although 'social soundness analysis' is now a required dimension of project identification and design its presumed positive effects are not yet apparent on the output side. Post project impact evaluations reveal that there continue to be negative social effects from AID'S development efforts, regardless of project type. In the process by which projects are identified, framed, approved, and ultimately implemented, important signals identified by pre-project social analysis get displaced. This occurs because anticipating social impact is only one of several goals or functions served by pre-project design analysis. This essay interprets the role of social analysis in the dynamics of project preparation, identifying structures and procedures which attenuate its influence.     

Women's interpretations of the right to legal abortion in Mexico City: citizenship,experience and clientelism

In April 2007, after a period of intense social debate, the Mexico City Legal Assembly legalized abortion during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy, which was an unprecedented development in women's rights in Mexico. Within the context of a proliferation of public discourses about women's citizenship rights changes in women's social status in Mexico, this article explores the extent to which the newly legalized character of abortion is interpreted by women as a right. Drawing on 24 interviews with women who had a legal termination of pregnancy between 2008 and 2009, this research shows that legalization opens up new and complex relationships between women as subjects of rights and the state. Such relationships are expressed as three discursive figures: legal abortion (1) as a concession from the government, (2) as ‘excessive’ tolerance by the state, and (3) as a right to be protected and guaranteed. The analysis shows that women's interpretations of the right to legal abortion are mediated by profound transformations, which Mexican society is currently undergoing. These include changes related to a shift from a clientist political culture to one more framed in terms of citizenship, the subjective effects of family planning policies, and their ambivalent relationships with Catholic notions of women and motherhood, and the effects of feminist discourses of women's citizenship, abortion, and reproductive rights.     

公共领域马斯洛现象与政府规模扩张分析

通过较长期的观察和对许多地方政府规模增长过程的实际考察,认为政府规模扩张有理性的一面。作为学术性研究,不仅应对政府的非理性增长作出种种分析,还应对政府规模的理性增长做出探究。采用理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法、定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,将马斯洛需求层次规律演绎到公共领域,提出了公共领域马斯洛现象和公共领域马斯洛规律的认识。进而提出,公共领域马斯洛规律是导致公共管理部门扩张的重要原因,也是导致政府规模理性扩张的重要原因之一。     

Time series applications to intelligence analysis: a case study of homicides in Mexico

Abstract

The scale of lethal violence in Mexico seen in the past decade has been a pressing concern for both Mexican and US officials, including law enforcement organizations, intelligence agencies, and policy makers. With much of the homicides being a result of the trafficking of illegal drugs, it has been suggested that the homicides in Mexico follow seasonal patterns tied to the drug trade, specifically to the cultivation of heroin. In this paper, conventional econometric time series methods are applied to test this hypothesis. Results demonstrate that not only do the drug-related homicides in Mexico display evidence of seasonality, but also that seasonality appears empirically related to the heroin trade. The paper makes the larger argument that time series and other statistical methods are an untapped resource that can complement standard intelligence analysis to support defensible judgments based on the scientific method of inquiry. However, a fuller integration of statistics and traditional analysis would require sufficient support structures be developed to encourage and promote such analysis.     

Community,Authorities, and Support for Vigilantism: Experimental Evidence

Vigilante justice challenges the state’s monopoly over the use of violence and as such has come to the attention of a growing body of political scholars. However, still little is known about the circumstances that foster support for citizens circumventing the state to confront crime directly. I argue that citizens’ perceptions of a trusting community, on the one hand, and an untrustworthy law enforcement, on the other, jointly influence their support for this kind of behavior. I test these hypotheses using a lab-in-the-field experiment in Mexico, a case in which the expansion of vigilante organizations has posed a serious challenge to the state. I find that participants are more supportive of a vigilante action when those considering said action are described to be inserted within a trustworthy community. Furthermore, I find that this effect is moderated by the described trustworthiness of law enforcement. These results contribute to our understanding of the emergence of vigilantism, and how trust in authorities can moderate the normative expression of social capital.     

The Consummate Comparative Public Administrationist: A Tribute to Ferrel Heady, 1916–2006

Ferrel Heady died on August 16, 2006, at his home in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Together with Fred Riggs, he is widely known and respected as one of the founders of comparative public administration. In this tribute to our friend and colleague, we touch on the highlights of his distinguished career as a scholar, an academic administrator, and a person who lived up to his own high standards of honesty and integrity in every aspect of his life. We assess his body of work, attempt to summarize its significance, and reproduce comments about him sent to us by his friends and colleagues. This tribute is accompanied by reflections on Ferrel written by Fred Riggs.     

A geographical context for demographic research on the northern border zone

Before commencing a demographic study of the northern border zone of Mexico, it is essential to define the geographical sphere that will be the object of measurement and analysis. In this article, the authors propose that the geographical context of the border be defined by taking the Mexican municipalities contiguous to the US as the unit of analysis. In order to substantiate this proposal, they discuss the comparative advantages of favoring municipalities over states as the units for analysis; they point out the heterogeneity of the levels of development observable in the border zone; and they delve deeply into an examination of demographic phenomena.     

Between hearts and pockets: locating the outcomes of transnational homemaking practices among Mexican women in Canada's temporary migration programmes

Temporary migration programmes (TMPs) contain features such as reduced costs and the social legitimation of regularized entry that allow women, including the very poor, to access transnational livelihoods. For mothers, taking up opportunities for employment abroad inevitably involves ‘transnational homemaking’, the set practices involved in caring for family relationships and maintaining household economies across borders. In this article, we examine the transnational homemaking practices undertaken by rural Mexican migrant women employed in highly masculinized TMPs in Canada, tracing how they construct and maintain household economies across borders through a delicate (re)negotiation of reproductive roles and responsibilities with non-migrating kin in Mexico. We find that migration yields material and subjective benefits that enable the expansion of their citizenship across multiple dimensions ranging from the economic to the sexual. At the same time, as racialized, gendered, migrants from the global South, their labour and status in Canada are highly precarious. The advantages derived from transnational migration are thus tenuous, limited, and contradictory.     

Return migration,crime, and electoral engagement in Mexico

Since 2006, the Great Recession and tighter migration policies in the U.S. have increased the rates of return migration to Mexico. Scholars debate whether high rates of return motivate greater electoral engagement via the democratic norms returnees may bring back with them. An alternative account holds that returnees are seen as dissimilar by their non-migrant co-nationals, causing returnees to disengage from politics. We contribute to this debate using municipal data on voter turnout and on rates of return migration for the case of Mexico from 2000 to 2010. Relying on an instrumental strategy that exploits migrants’ exposure to changes in unemployment rates as an exogenous predictor for return, we find robust evidence that high rates of return result in less electoral participation in presidential and local elections. Besides, electoral disengagement seems to be intensified by the presence of criminal violence, which surged during our period of analysis. Return migration may have a positive impact on other modes of political participation; but at least when it comes to voting, our research aligns with the pessimistic camp of the debate in that return migration increases electoral apathy.     

Metropolitan areas in Mexico, 1980

Urban trends in Mexico from 1960 to 1980 are analyzed using multivariate analysis techniques. The authors note that the total number of metropolitan regions has increased from 12 to 26 during this period. Differences between the stage in urbanization reached by the Mexico City region and other urban centers in the country are noted. In Mexico City, the authors observe a decline in the population of the central city region coupled with rapid growth in the surrounding municipalities. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

The location of employment in developing countries. Models of urbanization and comparative analyses of the Canadian and Mexican urban systems

The rapid urban growth and increasing number of megacities in Latin America and other developing countries are fundamentally different phenomena than those observed at the time that location theory was developed. To examine whether existing location theory applies to developing countries, an econometric analysis of the relationship between urbanization, city size, and development was first conducted. The relationship between urbanization and development was expressed in the form of a series of regression analyses applied to World Bank data for 96 developing and developed countries. After logarithmic transformation, a simple equation associating total and total urban population of the country and per capita gross national product was able to explain 93% of the variance in total urban population. This result demonstrates that it is not possible to regard urbanization as abnormal. As to the size of particular cities, deviations from the "normal" trajectory of urbanization apparently originate in particular institutional features of some countries. Manifestations of overurbanization in Latin America demonstrate that urbanization is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition of development. A comparative study of spatial location of employment in different economic sectors in Canada and Mexico was next conducted. For this analysis, cities of over 25,000 population in Canada and Mexico were classified into 32 economic activity sectors, which were regrouped into 18 for the analysis. Two matrixes of ten city types and 18 and 32 employment groups were constructed for each country, with the corresponding number of employees noted. The employment information was transformed into quotients of location, with a quotient above 100 signifying concentration of employment. The results did not suggest that factors of localization of employment are different in developing countries. Models of localization of economic activities adopt analogous characteristics imposed by geography and technological conditions. In Canada as in Mexico, economies of scale and distance are the principle variable explaining models of localization.