Regulating the retirement age—Lessons from Nordic pension policy approaches

The likelihood that longevity will continue to increase has generated a search for regulation that make people work longer as they live longer, and thus not just containing pension expenditure but also enlarging labor supply, economic growth, and tax revenue. In public pension policy, Nordic countries have led the world with three types of approaches aimed at making people retire later. The first came when Sweden, followed by Finland and Norway, installed life expectancy coefficients in benefit calculation formulas. The second followed as Finland introduced age-related accrual rates and the third when Denmark indexed the pensionable age to developments in life expectancy. Since economic incentive-based regulations failed to raise exit ages sufficiently, Finland and Sweden subsequently linked pensionable ages to life expectancy like Denmark. While this policy brings out inequalities in health and workability, the fact that countries found it necessary to index the pensionable age to longevity instead of just relying on economic incentives in regulating retirement behavior may hold lessons for other countries.     

Trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy for male social security-covered workers, by socioeconomic status

This article presents an analysis of trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy by average relative earnings for male Social Security-covered workers aged 60 or older. Because average relative earnings are measured at the peak of the earnings distribution (ages 45-55), it is assumed that they act as a rough proxy for socioeconomic status. The historical literature reviewed in this analysis generally indicates that mortality differentials by socioeconomic status have not been constant over time. For this study, time trends are examined by observing how mortality differentials by average relative earnings have been changing over 29 years of successive birth cohorts that encompass roughly the first third of the 20th century. Deaths for these birth cohorts are observed at ages 60-89 from 1972 through 2001, encompassing roughly the last third of the 20th century. The large size and long span of death observations allow for disaggregation by age and year-of-birth groups in the estimation of mortality differentials by socioeconomic status. This study finds a difference in both the level and the rate of change in mortality improvement over time by socioeconomic status for male Social Security-covered workers. Average relative earnings (measured as the relative average positive earnings of an individual between ages 45 and 55) are used as a proxy for adult socioeconomic status. In general, for birth cohorts spanning the years 1912-1941 (or deaths spanning the years 1972-2001 at ages 60-89), the top half of the average relative earnings distribution has experienced faster mortality improvement than has the bottom half. Specifically, male Social Security-covered workers born in 1941 who had average relative earnings in the top half of the earnings distribution and who lived to age 60 would be expected to live 5.8 more years than their counterparts in the bottom half. In contrast, among male Social Security-covered workers born in 1912 who survived to age 60, those in the top half of the earnings distribution would be expected to live only 1.2 years more than those in the bottom half. The life expectancy estimates in this article represent one possible outcome under one set of assumptions. These projections should not be regarded as an accurate depiction of the future. Specifically, this study adopts a simple projection method in which differentials are assumed to follow the pattern observed over the last 30 years of the 20th century for the first 30 years of the 21st century. This assumption lacks theoretical underpinnings because the causes of the widening differentials observed over the past 30 years have not been determined. On the one hand, if the trend of widening mortality differentials by year of birth observed over the past 30 years does not continue, the projection method used in this analysis could lead to an overestimation of future differences in life expectancy between socioeconomic groups. On the other hand, if mortality differentials do not narrow by age as observed in the past, the projection method used could lead to an underestimation of the differences in life expectancy between socioeconomic groups aged 60 or older.     

The cholera epidemic of 1833 and mortality in Mexico City

The author examines the impact of the 1833 cholera epidemic in Mexico City, Mexico, on social, economic, and political aspects of life in that city. She finds that some five percent of the population died during the epidemic, and enumerates them by age and sex.     

Long live the doge? Death as a term limit on Venetian chief executives

Public Choice - Can an electorate use the projected life expectancy of a lifetime-appointed chief executive to enforce binding, informal term limits? Informal term limits based on the life...     

The Age Gap in the 2008 Presidential Election

The 2008 presidential election suggests a significant realignment among voters entering the electorate, with younger voters deviating considerably from older voters in their partisan preferences. Barack Obama won the vote of those under 30 years old by a 66% to 32% margin and first time voters favored him by an overwhelming margin of 69–30%. The fact that the age gap between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton during the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination contest was also among the largest age gaps in American electoral history suggests that part of the age gap was undoubtedly due to the appeal of Obama with younger Americans. Part of the age gap, however, was also due to the unpopularity of the George W. Bush administration. The strong youth vote for Obama in 2008 was thus both pro-Obama and anti-Bush in nature. The huge age gap in 2008 suggests a split of the electorate along generational lines and the long-term consequences of the age gap appear to overwhelmingly favor the Democratic Party. George W. Bush’s unpopular and divisive presidency helped to make the youngest generation of American voters increasingly Democratic in their vote preference. This suggests that if younger Americans follow other generations in keeping the same partisan voting patterns throughout their life, the Democrats are potentially poised to make considerable gains in future elections.     

Lifetime distributional effects of Social Security retirement benefits

This article presents three measures of the distribution of actual and projected net benefits (benefits minus payroll taxes) from Social Security's Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) for people born between 1931 and 1960. The results are based on simulations with the Social Security Administration's Model of Income in the Near Term (MINT), which projects retirement income through 2020. The base sample for MINT is the U.S. Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation panels for 1990 to 1993, matched with Social Security administrative records. The study population is grouped into 5-year birth cohorts and then ranked by economic status in three ways. First, the population is divided into five groups on the basis of individual lifetime covered earnings, and their lifetime present values of OASI benefits received and payroll taxes paid are calculated. By this measure, OASI provides much higher benefits to the lowest quintile of earners than to other groups, but it becomes less redistributive toward lower earners in more recent birth cohorts. Second, people are ranked by shared lifetime covered earnings, and the values of shared benefits received and payroll taxes paid are computed. Individuals are assumed to split covered earnings, benefits, and payroll taxes with their spouses in the years they are married. By the shared covered earnings measure, OASI is still much more favorable to persons in the lower income quintiles, although to a lesser degree than when people are ranked by individual covered earnings. OASI becomes more progressive among recent cohorts, even as net lifetime benefits decline for the entire population. Finally, individuals are ranked on the basis of their shared permanent income from age 62, when they become eligible for early retirement benefits, until death. Their annual Social Security benefits are compared with the benefits they would have received if they had saved their payroll taxes in individual accounts and used the proceeds to buy either of two annuities that provide level payments from age 62 until death: a unisex annuity that is based on the average life expectancy of the birth cohort or an age-adjusted annuity that is based on the worker's own life expectancy. On the permanent income measure, OASI is generally more favorable to people in higher income quintiles. Moreover, it is particularly unfavorable to those in the lowest quintile. Because people in the lowest quintile have a shorter life expectancy, they receive OASI benefits for a shorter period. This group would receive greater benefits in retirement if they invested their payroll taxes in the age-adjusted annuity. OASI is more favorable to them than the unisex annuity, however, OASI is becoming more progressive in that the net benefits it provides drop more rapidly among higher income quintiles than lower ones. This article also examines how OASI affects individuals by educational attainment, race, and sex. On both the lifetime covered earnings and the permanent income measures, OASI is more favorable to workers with less education and more favorable to women. The results by race and ethnicity are mixed. When people are ranked by the present value of their shared lifetime covered earnings, OASI appears more favorable to non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics than to non-Hispanic whites. When people are ranked by shared permanent income in retirement, however, OASI produces negative returns for both non-Hispanic blacks and non-Hispanic whites in the most recent birth cohorts, with non-Hispanic blacks faring relatively worse. The changes across cohorts occur partly because of changes in tax rates and benefits, but more importantly because of changing demographics and earnings patterns of the workforce. Of particular importance is the increasing share of beneficiaries who receive worker benefits instead of auxiliary benefits as wives or widows. OASI benefits are based on the lifetime covered earnings of current or former married couples, as well as on earned retirement benefits of individuals. The reduced importance of auxiliary benefits (due to the higher lifetime covered earnings of women) and the increased proportion of divorced retirees make OASI more progressive--even as net benefits decline--for current and future cohorts than for cohorts who retired in the 1990s. Analysis of these findings suggests that simulations of policy changes in Social Security must take into account the decreasing importance of auxiliary benefits across birth cohorts and the complex changes in individuals' marital histories.     

Public health financing,environmental quality,and the quality of life in Nigeria

This study explores the relationship between health financing, environmental quality, and the quality of life in Nigeria. The Bayer and Hanck cointegration test affirms cointegration. Findings further reveal that CO₂ emissions have no meaningful impact on life expectancy in the short run. In the long run, urbanization significantly deteriorates the quality of life. Also, public health expenditure has not contributed meaningfully to the quality of life. The study discovers no evidence of a feedback causality, but a one‐way causality flowing from urbanization to CO₂ emissions. Policies that can enhance a sustainable environment and improve the quality of life are discussed.     

The Political Economy of Growth: Democracy and Human Capital

Democracy is more than just another brake or booster for the economy. We argue that there are significant indirect effects of democracy on growth through public health and education. Where economists use life expectancy and education as proxies for human capital, we expect democracy will be an important determinant of the level of public services manifested in these indicators. In addition to whatever direct effect democracy may have on growth, we predict an important indirect effect through public policies that condition the level of human capital in different societies. We conduct statistical investigations into the direct and indirect effects of democracy on growth using a data set consisting of a 30-year panel of 128 countries. We find that democracy has no statistically significant direct effect on growth. Rather, we discover that the effect of democracy is largely indirect through increased life expectancy in poor countries and increased secondary education in non poor countries.     

THE ABILITY OF OLDER WORKERS WITH IMPAIRMENTS TO ADAPT TO NEW JOBS: CHANGING THE AGE CRITERIA FOR SOCIAL SECURITY DISABILITY INSURANCE

Many applications for Social Security Disability Insurance cannot be evaluated based on medical criteria alone. In specific cases, the current regulatory structure dictates that applicants who can no longer do past jobs are expected to adapt to new jobs up to the age of 55, but not after. As the proportion of these cases has grown and life expectancy among beneficiaries has increased, policymakers have considered whether expectations for adapting to new jobs above age 55 should be adjusted. Some recent reform proposals call for increasing the age cutoffs in the regulations. Although prior research predicts reduced program costs, the capacity of potentially affected applicants to continue working is unclear. Filling this gap, we evaluate the work capacity of applicants above age 55 using an instrumental variables strategy. Our estimates indicate that, for applicants on the margin of allowance, at most an additional 11.2 percent would work above the regulatory definition of meaningful employment (known as Substantial Gainful Activity) in the absence of Disability Insurance benefits. We explore the implications for adapting to new jobs above age 55 under the proposed policy regime.     

Cheating death: the potency and perversity of Margaret Rutherford as Miss Marple

ABSTRACT

Comic narratives provide an arena wherein the marginalised are centre stage, in the tradition of the carnival. This article examines Margaret Rutherford's performance in the role of Miss Marple in the 1960s MGM films, exploring how Rutherford's persona articulates complex discourses concerning age, gender and national identity, in the tradition of the contradictory nature of the trickster. The trickster tradition, in its evocation of a mythological resonance, creates a liminal space in the narrative, bridging life and death, male and female, chaos and order. Her narrative function is to restore social stability, to “cure” and “heal”, through chaos and cunning. Rutherford ultimately defies socially inscribed definitions of ageing femininity, inhabiting Agatha Christie's Miss Marple as a comic entity, whose ability to dissemble, impersonate and subvert makes her a potent and yet perverse force for good. Her performance as Miss Marple can be read within the social context of reconfigured discourses regarding age and gender in the second half of the twentieth century; greater life expectancy, social mobility and evolution of family structures challenged the traditional role of the ageing woman. She is a nostalgic articulation of Englishness which draws on the figuration of the village spinster.     

Coping with the demographic challenge: fewer children and living longer

Due to demographic changes, the U.S. Social Security system will face financial challenges in the near future. Declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancies are causing the U.S. population to age. Today 12 percent of the total population is aged 65 or older, but by 2080, it will be 23 percent. At the same time, the working-age population is shrinking from 60 percent today to a projected 54 percent in 2080. Consequently, the Social Security system is experiencing a declining worker-to-beneficiary ratio, which will fall from 3.3 in 2005 to 2.1 in 2040 (the year in which the Social Security trust fund is projected to be exhausted). This presents a significant challenge to policymakers. One policy option that could help keep the Social Security system solvent is to reduce retirement benefits, either by raising the normal retirement age or through life expectancy indexing, to reflect the fact that people are living longer. However, these reductions in benefits have the potential to harm economically vulnerable retirees. Other options, such as progressive price indexing proposals, explicitly protect the retirement benefits of low lifetime earners. Still other options would seek to raise additional revenue for the system. Since individuals will be living longer in retirement, many policymakers believe it is important to encourage older workers to delay retirement so that they can maintain a quality standard of living throughout their retirement. One proposal to encourage continued work would be to increase the early eligibility age for Social Security benefits from age 62 to age 65. This could possibly hurt individuals who need to retire from physically demanding jobs but would ensure that people receive higher benefit amounts once they were able to fully retire. Other proposals that could promote more work at older ages include expanding phased retirement options and reforming pension and defined contribution systems to create incentives to work and save.     

Medicine's great journey. One hundred years of healing

At the close of the 19th century, bloodletting was state-of-the-art medical practice and life expectancy in the United States was about 40 years. Excerpts from a newly published photo collection chronicle the dizzying changes that have occurred since then.     

Men and Sex Equality: What Have They Got to Lose?

This paper explores the gains and losses that might be involved in a shift to greater sex equality. It argues that in addition to practical changes, genuine equality would displace men and their needs as the unquestioned standard of humanity. Men are likely to find this deeply threatening. They could, however, benefit in the long run. Some men might, therefore, support sex equality on the grounds of self-interest as well as justice; they will, however, also experience short-term losses, and women cannot rely on their support.     

LONGEVITY‐RELATED OPTIONS FOR SOCIAL SECURITY: A MICROSIMULATION APPROACH TO RETIREMENT AGE AND MORTALITY ADJUSTMENTS

We consider the distributional implications of Social Security policy changes in the context of increases in life expectancy and differential mortality. Using a robust microsimulation model, we examine how several options for raising the retirement age, including a scenario that applies a mortality adjustment in combination with such policies, affect different types of individuals and households. Policy changes are simulated for Social Security beneficiaries in 2030 using the Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) microsimulation model. The analysis shows that increasing either the age at which individuals receive their full retirement benefit alone or the early eligibility and full retirement ages together result in across‐the‐board reductions in benefit levels. The policies are projected to result in slightly higher poverty, but the expected rise is sharper among groups known to experience higher rates of mortality, as well as many disadvantaged groups. Analysis of a hypothetical adjustment to offset the historical impacts of differential mortality by lifetime earnings on lifetime benefit receipt, when combined with these retirement age increases, shows varied results. While some groups of individuals experience sharper reductions in median monthly benefits, the adjustment has an offsetting and protective effect for the benefits of disadvantaged groups when combined with options that would raise the retirement age. This combined package of policies, as well as simulations that incorporate a behavioral adjustment in benefit claiming ages, result in an increase of less than one percentage point in the average poverty rate.     

Avoidable causes of death and their effects on life expectancy. A socio-demographic interpretation. The case of the northern frontier, 1980-1990

"This study forms part of [a] research project on the health-disease-death process along the [Mexican] Northern Frontier--a by-product of the socio-economic structure of a specific social formation that determines disease and death--to support regional and sectorial design of policies and actions for the improvement of health conditions for its population.... An important finding is a 4.1 year increase of life expectancy due, among other causes, to a slight decrease in avoidable death causes, although these still produce about 50% of deaths." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

The economics of the women's movement

In recent years, the political process has seemed to become increasingly favorable to issues involving women, as shown by the relatively large number of states which have passed the Equal Rights Amendment. The economic theory of politics would imply that this result would occur if the interests of women in removing labor force sex discrimination had increased. We argue that most sex descrimination in hiring and pay of women is in the form of statistical discrimination where sex is used as a proxy for labor force attachment. If this is so, then, on net, sex discrimination in employment practices would pay in the sense that the gainers from such behavior would gain more than the losers would lose. Married women would share in such gains since they would be compensated for their lower earnings by the higher earnings of their husbands. Single women, however, would receive no such compensation. We therefore hypothesize that the recent increase in legislation benefitting women is related to marriage rates, not to female labor force participation. Using votes in the state legislatures on the ERA as a measure of success by state of the women's movement, we find that our results do hold — number of single women is significant in explaining such voting but female labor force participation is not significant.     

我国人口预期寿命的影响因素分析

本文选择人口平均预期寿命、婴儿死亡率作为因变量,在宏观层面上分析影响人口健康水平的因素,并对各因素的作用大小与机制进行讨论。总地来看,经济、教育、医疗、公共卫生等因素对人口健康水平起着大小不同的作用,并且表现出较强的城乡差别。在城镇地区,除了经济发展水平之外,是医疗卫生服务资源的利用水平能够更加直接和显著地影响人口健康水平,而不是供给水平。在乡村地区,提升健康水平的有效选择是：积极有效地改善乡村地区公共卫生设施,提高乡村人口安全饮水的比例;大力促进乡村地区人口的教育水平;提高人们对医疗卫生服务资源的利用水平。     

Taiwanese spies on campus

This article considers the following question: given sex workers' barriers to participation, how do they engage in political life, if at all? To answer this, I draw on semi-structured open-ended interviews with forty adults who have supported themselves with sex work in the San Francisco Bay Area. While these individuals do not represent all sex workers in the United States, they exhibit a variety of capacities and methods for expressing their voices in the polity. Even as they faced multiple disadvantages and barriers to participation, they engaged in civic and political life through voting and community-based advocacy work, and they indicated that nonprofit agencies provide spaces that potentially support and encourage these activities. Although my results are from a small sample, they provide an important contribution to political science by shedding light on a population that is rarely studied in the discipline, especially regarding their formal and informal political involvement. In so doing, this article adds to broader scholarship on participation among marginalized and often under-studied groups.     

Who supports tax limitations: Evidence from massachusetts' proposition 2½

The vote on Massachusetts' Proposition 2½—and by extension the votes to restrain or roll back taxes in other states as well—should not be interpreted simply as expressions of the narrowly defined self-interest of the voters. This study shows that other characteristics such as sex, race, religion, occupation, educational background, and political orientation also have an important influence on voting behavior. These characteristics combine with self-interest measures such as public sector employment and voters' likely gains from tax reduction to push individual voters in different directions on the issue of tax limitation. Consequently, we find little polarization in the electorate along demographic lines.     

Mortal Beings: How Evolution Helps Us Understand Illness and Aging

In these two books, biological anthropologist Richard Bribiescas and developmental psychologist David Geary address sex differences in health and aging from the perspectives of evolutionary biology and psychology. Bribiescas explores the aging process in men and describes why and how men age differently from women, with earlier mortality and greater susceptibility to the diseases of aging. Geary provides a comprehensive survey of the animal and human literature on sex differences in vulnerabilities to the effects of stress on psychological and physical traits. Both authors focus on the role of Darwinian sexual selection as the source of different health outcomes for men and women. These works make valuable contributions to our understanding of why humans get sick and age and argue convincingly for approaching medical research with a greater sensitivity to the role played by biological sex in poor health.