Toward a demo-anthropological perspective on nuptiality and its relationship with new reproductive patterns: consideration of a study carried out in the area surrounding Zacatepec,Morelos

"The research is based on a study carried out between 1989 and 1991 in the three rural communities in the state of Morelos [Mexico] that included a socio-demographic survey and interviews. The methodological goal of the authors is to view nuptiality from demographic and anthropological standpoints.... The authors seek to pinpoint the elements that account for changes that have taken place in nuptiality, as well as to identify the impact of these changes on [descendants]." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

The epidemiology of aging: a further stage in the demographic transition

"Social and economic indicators depict Mexico as a country of intermediate development. It is also in intermediate stages of demographic and epidemiologic transitions. When these traits are translated into socio-demographic perspectives, all projections indicate that for the next fifty years we can expect: (i) percentage decreases in child and teen-age populations, (ii) large percentage and absolute increases in adult population, and (iii) important increases in the elderly population.... Among elders death due to infectious diseases is less common than within other sectors of [the] population. Mortality associated with chronic ailments has increased, with recent and remarkable changes during the last twenty years. This transformation is not evenly distributed. It is more accelerated in developed and urban areas as contrasted with the rural and less developed." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Establishing the link between representative bureaucracy and performance: The South African case

Representative bureaucracy is a critical element of modern public administration and governance. Since the advent of nonracial democracy, the South African government has transformed the apartheid bureaucracy into a new public service that closely mirrors the country's diverse population. Questions remain, however, about how this demographic transformation has impacted the public service. Grounded in the theory of representative bureaucracy, we use a mixed methods approach to examine the relationship between representation of historically disadvantaged groups and performance of national departments in South Africa. Analyses of panel data indicate that as national departments become more representative by employing a greater percentage of Blacks, they become more effective at achieving their goals. Interviews with officials in national departments corroborate this and reveal a range of underlying pathways linking representation of historically disadvantaged groups to performance.     

Separation and divorce in Mexico: a demographic perspective

Data from the 1976 Mexican Fertility Survey are analyzed to determine the extent of legitimization of children born out of wedlock. The socioeconomic characteristics of women in consensual and legal unions are compared. The frequency and timing of legalization of consensual unions is analyzed, and the number of consensual unions and the frequency of legalization in rural and urban areas are compared. The role of pregnancy in forcing legalization and the stability of legal unions with and without prior cohabitation are studied. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

The demographic consequences of austerity in Latin America: methodological aspects

This work reviews evidence in the literature of possible demographic effects of the austerity programs imposed on Latin American countries in the 1980s. The work focuses on methodological problems involved in assessing demographic changes and ascertaining that they were indeed attributable to the economic crisis. An introductory section describes the recession of the 1980s in Latin America, the declines in employment and living standards, and the health and social consequences of the deepening poverty. But the author argues that evaluation of health conditions, levels of nutrition, and especially factors such as infant mortality, fertility, marriage patterns, and migration as indicators of the impact of the economic depression is full of pitfalls that are not always obvious. Few Latin American countries have civil registration systems capable of providing accurate and up-to-date mortality and fertility data. Indirect methods currently in use were intended to analyze longterm levels and trends and are of little use for short-term fluctuations. Data on internal migration are scarce even in developed countries. Even when recent data are available it is often difficult or impossible to obtain data for comparison. Infant mortality and malnutrition levels, for example, are serious problems in many parts of Latin America, but series of data capable of demonstrating that they are truly consequences of the economic crisis are lacking. Another challenge is to separate the demographic effects of the debt crisis from longterm structural processes. The possibility of time lags and of different time frames may increase confusion. Almost a year must pass before effects on birth rates can be expected, for example. Neutralizing mechanisms may obscure the effects sought. Thus, the most impoverished urban sectors may return to the countryside to seek refuge in subsistence agriculture; their departure would in some measure diminish the consequences of recession in the urban economy. The type of cross-sectional analysis of differential fertility and mortality that is currently stressed in demographic studies is of limited utility for understanding the demographic impact of economic oscillations, for which a longitudinal approach is required. The next section of the article compares evidence of the effects of the recession of the 1980s with the Great Depression of the 1930s and with historical crises, suggesting that contemporary economic recessions have little in common in terms of causes or demographic consequences with historic crises. Specific studies and available data are then examined in the areas of fertility and mortality, longterm consequences of the economic recession, and migration.     

From selective integration into selective implementation: The link between differentiated integration and conformity with EU laws

In recent years, the topic of differentiated integration in the European Union has become increasingly discussed in both political science research and politics in general. Whereas differentiated integration is viewed as necessary for deeper cooperation, recent findings suggest that it increases the gulf between participants and non‐participants, making it difficult for non‐participating countries to join in later negotiations. However, there is a lack of theoretical and empirical work regarding the relationship between different levels of participation in the EU and national policy outcomes. This article addresses this question by comparing the policy outcomes in fully participating, selectively participating (opting‐in) and non‐participating (opting‐out) EU Member States relative to EU legislation. The findings show that selective participation (opting‐in) increases state conformity with EU laws relative to no integration at all (opting‐out), but it does not completely bridge the gap between fully integrated Member States and non‐participants. The results suggest that countries with flexible arrangements are generally less likely to implement EU laws than full participants, even when they choose to legally commit to the EU requirements. This finding raises some further questions about the rationale behind selective participation and its consequences for policy conformity, if its application expands to other policy areas and more Member States in the future.     

批判视角下的政治经济学与历史唯物主义的内在联系

随着我国经济社会各项事业的发展以及"一带一路"战略的实施,在这种新形势下,坚持与发展马克思主义、构筑我们的道路、理论、制度、文化自信,是马克思主义研究中的重中之重,作为我国哲学社会科学领域指导思想的马克思主义随着时代的发展需要不断地深化研究。马克思主义以批判的视角对黑格尔哲学、古典政治经济学及资本主义进行理论分析、坚持了历史性和物质性,得出资本主义的生产关系、资本关系不是永恒存在的、不能将其超历史化这一结论。马克思的历史唯物主义则深刻揭示了资本主义社会对工人、资本对劳动的剥削和压榨的本质,并批判地指出了古典经济学中对资本主义生产关系及资本本质认知上存在的某些肤浅及错误观点。正确理解马克思主义政治经济学批判思想并从这一视角出发,研究马克思主义是正确领会马克思主义政治经济学、马克思主义哲学与社会主义这三项内容内在关系的前提,是在经济全球化形势下把握历史发展潮流、正确制定国家社会发展战略的基础。     

效率与公平统一的结合点在于初次分配

将效率与公平统一起来,关键在于分配,尤其是初次分配。初次分配是更为基础性的分配,如果初次分配严重不公,政府依靠再分配很难加以矫正。政府在调控初次分配领域中存在着一系列经济、行政和法律障碍,其中最主要的是私有经济结构中的劳资关系、国有经济的垄断地位、公开财政提供的公共服务。     

The conditional party mandate: A model for the study of mass and elite opinion patterns

Abstract.  This article explores the pattern of opinions within political parties. What is the level of issue congruence between voters and elected leaders? The article introduces two ideas for the analysis of mass and elite opinion patterns. First, the authors challenge the unidimensional conception of mass-elite linkages, and argue that the opinion structure of political parties may best be understood in the context of a multidimensional policy space. Second, they contest the proximity logic of the traditional party mandate model. In so doing, they propose the 'conditional party mandate model', arguing that 'direction' rather than 'proximity' attracts voters' interest and attention. The authors contend that in issues of principle significance for a particular party (so-called 'core issues'), the party's voters and representatives will proceed in the same direction, but the representatives will stress their position more strongly than the voters. In issues that are less significant to the parties, the relationship between the two levels will be fortuitous and less clear. The analyses, which are based on elite and mass survey data from the Norwegian political system, support the authors' hypotheses concerning positional issues. When the direction of an issue is given, representatives are more extreme than voters.     

Homeland Security: The Difference between a Vision and a Wish

The U.S. government is considering how it should reorganize for homeland security. Consequently, attention has focused on the new Office of Homeland Security (OHS). Much debate focuses on two issues related to OHS: (1) whether the OHS should be a separate executive agency; and (2) whether the OHS director has sufficient authority to direct changes in policies and resource allocation of other departments and agencies. The authors believe the emphasis on these areas of interest is misplaced as measures of the eventual success of the OHS. Rather than focusing on these political issues, this article outlines several questions about how the OHS might approach its complex mission and highlights some organizational and bureaucratic realities that are likely to survive the debate over placement of the OHS within the executive branch and the authorities of the OHS director. This article concludes with a discussion of some organizational tools that the OHS or any coordinating office will require to fulfill its mandate.     

The Gompertz-Makeham function in the description and projection of demographic phenomena

"The main aim of this article is to examine the application of [the Gompertz-Makeham mathematical function] in detail, and more specifically, its mathematical formulation and development. Another objective is to test an iterative method for obtaining parameters, by which one may obtain an optimal function best describing the behavior of a population in the face of demographic phenomena. This study was conducted with [Mexican data on] population growth and...structures by age of fertility and the labor force." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Shareholder wealth effects of legislative events: The case of airline deregulation

This paper presents empirical evidence about the impact on shareholder wealth of legislative events leading to the enactment of the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978. In contrast to prior regulatory event studies, this paper examines not only the final legislative enactment but also the Congressional hearings that preceded it. No significant effect on shareholder wealth is indicated when averaged across all airline firms and all legislative events. Impact of deregulation, however, was expected to be different for trunk airlines than for local airlines. Moreover, market expectations likely changed with the change in the political climate during the course of deregulation deliberations, from an industry financial health emphasis under a Republican (Ford) administration to a consumer welfare emphasis under a Democratic (Carter) administration. We find that trunk airlines experienced significant positive abnormal returns during the Ford administration, but negative abnormal returns during the Carter administration. In contrast, local airlines exhibited significant negative abnormal returns during both the Ford and Carter eras. Systematic risk of both trunk and local airlines also increased with the change in the political climate.     

The effect of economic events on votes for president: 1984 update

In previous work I have developed an equation explaining votes for president in the United States that seems to have remarkable explanatory power. In this paper the equation is updated through the 1984 election and then used to predict the 1988 election.     

The effect of economic events on votes for president: 1992 update

This article updates through the 1992 election the equation originally presented in Fair (1978) explaining votes for president. Conditional predictions of the 1996 election are also made.