普京欧亚联盟设想：背景、目标及其可能性

在国际格局出现重大变化以及俄美关系“重启”的大背景下,普京于2011年10月3日在俄《消息报》上发表题为《欧亚新的一体化计划：未来诞生于今天》的文章,提出在前苏联地区建立欧亚联盟、把原苏联的欧洲地区与亚太地区联系起来的设想。欧亚联盟设想是俄长期以来有步骤、有谋划地推进欧亚一体化进程的必然逻辑。俄正试图在经济上通过独联体自由贸易区、欧亚经济共同体框架下的关税同盟和统一经济空间,朝着欧亚经济联盟努力;军事上借助集体安全条约组织进一步掌控地区安全事务。其最终目标是实现包括政治联盟在内的前苏联地区的一体化,并使之成为多极世界中的一极。     

欧亚联盟——后苏联空间俄罗斯发展前景

2012年1月1日,俄、白、哈统一经济空间投入运行,将为欧亚联盟的建立打下坚实基础。俄罗斯拟于2013年1月1日前推出欧亚经济联盟条约文本,但各国对统一货币的时间和方式尚存争议。欧亚联盟是全球化背景下俄罗斯为自己勾勒的发展前景,是俄罗斯恢复大国地位、发挥对盟国影响的关键一步,其前景是区域性经济-政治-外交协同组织,目的是在世界政治格局中真正成为一极。鉴于中亚国家是欧亚联盟未来争取的重点,俄罗斯必将以能源和军事安全为筹码来巩固欧亚联盟,俄罗斯、中亚与中国之间的双边和多边关系将不得不受到欧亚联盟的影响和制约。关注欧亚联盟的实质性进展和多边关系的变化将变得更为必要和复杂。     

俄“欧亚联盟”战略及其对中俄关系的影响

从苏联解体迄今20年来,独联体内部呈现两种不同的发展趋势,一方面是独联体组织四分五裂,另一方面是不同成员国在不同领域和不同层次上重新组合、加强一体化建设。普京提出在俄、白、哈关税联盟和欧亚经济共同体基础上逐渐建成具有综合性质的欧亚联盟,使之成为促进独联体地区一体化的新组织,以及俄追求"世界强大一极"战略的依托。俄着力推进欧亚联盟可能对中俄关系及中国与欧亚地区其他国家关系产生一定影响,并对上合组织产生冲击。     

欧亚经济联盟经济一体化效果测度及评价

欧亚地区是俄美欧争夺的战略要地,与中国丝绸之路经济带建设密切相关。欧亚经济联盟是目前欧亚地区最活跃的一体化组织。它是由俄罗斯主导的经济合作组织,却被普遍认为具有浓厚的政治色彩。欧亚经济联盟自成立以来取得了一些成绩,对其成果进行经济学测度发现,成员国选择入盟确有贸易和投资方面的实际需要,同时联盟规则也完全有利于俄谋求强国地位的战略意图。未来,欧亚经济联盟将长期存在,但可能将始终维持低效运转,即经济一体化深度发展局限性较强,空间扩展有限,且发展进度和节奏将明显低于预期水平。俄乌冲突给欧亚经济联盟成员国带来的经济冲击将使得未受制裁国家不断衡量自身的收益和风险,而俄罗斯将比以往更加需要联盟的支持。在西方全方位制裁下,俄罗斯与欧盟之间从能源贸易到金融投资彻底割裂的风险骤升,导致欧亚经济联盟未来发展可能走向封闭,前景不乐观。     

俄对欧亚经济联盟和丝绸之路经济带建设对接的态度及中国应采取的策略

俄罗斯对"一带"与"一盟"的对接采取既支持又有条件、既参与又留有余地的态度。在"一带"与"一盟"对接中,俄方重视发挥西伯利亚大铁路作用、加快远东发展以及促进欧亚经济联盟一体化,并且利用中国投资缓解欧亚经济联盟成员国面临的经济困难。与此同时,俄罗斯及欧亚经济联盟成员国对中国的竞争亦存在担心,目前不愿与中国进行自贸区谈判。鉴于此,中国应与欧亚经济联盟就中国成为其观察员国进行谈判,此举将有利于开展"一带"与"一盟"对接合作。中国要从经济、社会、文化、教育等各方面与欧亚经济联盟成员国开展对接合作。     

俄罗斯的“大欧亚”战略构想及其内涵

普京在2016年6月提出的“大欧亚伙伴关系”计划,是继欧亚经济联盟和“转向东方”之后一项宏大的战略构想.“大欧亚伙伴关系”包括地缘经济、地缘政治和世界秩序三个层次的内涵.地缘经济和地缘政治是其起点,世界秩序是其最终目标.从地缘经济方面看,“大欧亚”意在发展俄罗斯的东部地区西伯利亚和远东,以及推动亚太地区的区域经济一体化;从地缘政治方面看,“大欧亚”意在使俄罗斯成为大西洋和太平洋强国,以及欧亚大陆的中心;从世界秩序方面看,俄罗斯希望将“大欧亚”打造成为新世界秩序的发源地和载体,作为单极世界的替代品.“大欧亚”概念已经面世,后续措施将会陆续出台.但是,由于各种客观障碍及主观不确定性,俄罗斯更注重“大欧亚”战略构想的地缘经济目标.     

中国丝绸之路经济带与欧亚经济联盟的对接合作——基本架构和实施路径

中国丝绸之路经济带建设倡议是贯通欧亚大陆的区域经济合作的发展构想。欧亚经济联盟位于亚欧大陆腹地,是连接东亚经济圈与欧洲经济圈的桥梁和纽带。中国丝绸之路经济带与欧亚经济联盟的对接合作将成为欧亚区域经济发展的合力和引擎。在对接合作的整体架构上,需要确立开放包容、市场主导、平等互利和合作共赢的原则;建立中国与欧亚经济联盟及其各国政府和企业间的多主体、多层次合作机制;把基础设施建设、发展互联互通和贸易投资便利化、加强产能和金融合作作为优先合作的领域。在实施路径上,积极开展中国与欧亚经济联盟的对话与合作,积极发展中俄战略协作伙伴关系,充分利用上海合作组织的平台作用,使中国丝绸之路经济带与欧亚经济联盟对接合作成为区域经济合作的创新模式。     

西方制裁对欧亚经济联盟的影响：发展趋势与“一带一盟”对接

俄罗斯在乌克兰展开特别军事行动以来,西方对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯实施了多轮经济制裁,这不仅对欧亚经济联盟的自身实力和运行制度构成严峻挑战,还将对联盟经济发展带来严重影响。从短期看,西方制裁造成联盟成员国的经济活动进一步趋缓,给联盟未来经济发展带来巨大不确定性;从中长期看,受西方制裁影响,联盟如期实现一体化目标将面临诸多挑战。一方面,制裁导致联盟与外部世界的科技差距进一步拉大,相互贸易中的高科技产品供应将持续短缺,这使联盟经济实现科技引领突破发展的动力严重不足。另一方面,制裁导致联盟成员国的国家主权意识增强,联盟内部壁垒有所增加,导致联盟超国家机制运行效率呈下降趋势,联盟成员国经济在短期内难以摆脱在全球产品价值链中的低端位置。为应对西方制裁带来的冲击和挑战,联盟充分利用一体化机制,协商共同的应对措施,力图保持宏观经济稳定和提高抵御外部挑战的能力。在此背景下,中国在联盟对外经济合作中的地位进一步提升,有助于深化中国与欧亚经济联盟的经济合作,为推动“一带一盟”高质量对接提供了新机遇。     

欧亚经济联盟对外自贸区建设的进展与方向

欧亚经济联盟是欧亚地区重要的区域经济一体化组织,成立之初正遇乌克兰危机,美国对俄罗斯的经济制裁使其陷入困境.为摆脱危机,欧亚经济联盟积极加强对外自贸区建设.目前,欧亚经济联盟与越南、伊朗的自贸区已经生效,与新加坡、塞尔维亚的自贸区已经签署,与印度、埃及、以色列的自贸区谈判也已经展开.经过5年多的实践,欧亚经济联盟对外自...     

欧亚经济联盟共同能源市场建设的现状及前景

共同能源市场建设是欧亚经济联盟走向深度一体化的核心内容.目前,这一进程逐步从理念构建过渡到具体实施,并具有了明确的行动路线图.由于俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦寻求东向能源出口市场的需求与中国能源进口来源多元化的目标相契合,能源领域的基础设施和产业合作构成了丝绸之路经济带与欧亚经济联盟战略对接的重要内容.综合考察欧亚经济联盟共同能源市场的建设问题,对于推进丝绸之路经济带与欧亚经济联盟的能源合作对接无疑具有重要意义.     

Sustainable development at the sharp end

This paper takes an actor-oriented approach to understanding the significance for policy and practice of field-worker experience at the interface between project and people. It is set in the context of an Indian project which aims to reduce poverty through sustainable, participatory agricultural change, based on low-cost inputs, catalysed by village-based project staff. Diaries kept by such staff are analysed to reveal how the social position of field-workers enables and constrains their interactions within and without the project, and the ways in which ‘street level bureaucrats’ shape projects through their discretionary actions. They show the Village Motivators struggling to communicate project objectives, to establish their roles and distinguish themselves fromother village-level bureaucrats, to negotiate participation, to overcome hostility to Participatory Rural Appraisal, to arbitrate access to consultants and seniors, to interpret project objectives and lobby for changes in these without admission of failure, and finally to develop a shared vocabulary of participation and belief in success. Some of the implications for participatory approaches are that there may be significant contradictions between sustainability and participatory development.     

Development-driven forced displacement and compensation-based resettlement: experiences from the Jamuna multi-purpose bridge project

In 1998 the Jamuna Multi-Purpose Bridge (JMB), the largest infrastructure development project in Bangladesh was completed. Huge numbers of households were affected by the project and many were displaced. Only a handful of displaced people were resettled by the project. The JMB was the first development project in Bangladesh that included resettlement activities as an integral part of the project and introduced a resettlement action plan. In principle, the Revised Resettlement Action Plan endorsed the primary principle of Operational Directives 4:30 of the World Bank. The resettlement project's core objective was to improve the living standards of project-affected persons above their previous level, or at least reinstate their pre-project standard. To meet the goals, various grants and supports were given as compensation. The project has earned international admiration as an example for other projects to follow. This study investigates the extent to which Jamuna Multi-Purpose Bridge's compensation-based resettlement succeeded in reconstructing displaced households, and identifies discrepancies between policy and practice. It concludes with major findings and comparative analysis on the compensation principle, and provides opinions based on information gathered from the field.     

Pro-poor values in agricultural research management: PETRRA experiences in practice

PETRRA was an agricultural research-management project which used a values-based approach in project design, planning, and implementation. Through an experiential learning process, agricultural research and development (R&D) institutes, NGOs, private agencies, and community-based organisations rediscovered and improved the understanding of their strengths in meeting development commitments. The project successfully showed how values-based research can meaningfully be implemented and a sustainable pro-poor impact achieved.     

Developing small production and marketing enterprises: mushroom contract farming in Bangladesh

This article presents a case study of an activity implemented under the FAO component of the Local Partnerships for Urban Poverty Alleviation Project, funded by UNDP in Bangladesh. In Mymensingh city the project is linking poor urban dwellers with a niche market for oyster mushroom. This small enterprise activity appears to be sustainable, in that it develops agricultural production to cater for the specific demand of an existing small marketing enterprise. As long as the trader finds a market for his mushroom, he has an incentive to collaborate with the project beneficiaries who supply the produce. This model is thus an example of mutual benefit between extremely small landholders and a trader through the catalytic effect of a development project.     

Learning from a leprosy project in Indonesia: making mindsets explicit for stigma reduction

International attention for disability recognises that it plays an important role in persistent poverty. Leprosy can cause preventable disability. Stigma associated with leprosy often has greater implications for people affected than physical impairments. The Stigma Assessment and Reduction of Impact (SARI) project in Indonesia employs an action research methodology to develop stigma reduction interventions. By exploring the different mindsets of the stakeholders in the reconnaissance phase of the project, the project identified differences in aspirations, attitudes to research, and conflicting intrinsic models of disability. The differences in mindsets are not symptoms of failure but, rather, should be actively sought out.     

Pledges not kept: JICA's project challenges in Ghana

Japan's project aid initiatives for capacity development still occupy a large part of the aid discourse of the country's development cooperation programme. Over the years, Japan's development rhetoric has been significantly adapted to the wider policy shifts of Western donor countries and has introduced in its programme and project documents such terms as ‘ownership’, ‘needs-based approach’, and ‘participatory’ initiatives in order to achieve more ‘sustainable’ results. Furthermore, the importance of ‘institutional memory’ has been repeatedly highlighted by Japan as an important element for greater project effectiveness. This article investigates how this development rhetoric translates in Japan International Cooperation Agency's (JICA) project practice in a three-year community-based initiative in rural Ghana. The results illustrate that despite the short-term benefits the project has brought to the targeted communities, the development practice of JICA falls short of its discursive representation and more effort is needed by JICA toward a more committed and inclusive project practice.     

社区主导型发展的新农村建设模式实践——南宁市世界银行贷款小区改善项目公众参与模式评析

社区主导型发展作为一种新的农村发展模式，已被诸多国际机构和组织如世界银行（以下简称世行）、国际劳工组织（ILO）、世界卫生组织（wHO）、联合国开发计划署（UNDP）和西亚经济社会委员会（ESCWA）等作为农村发展的主要工具所采用。社区主导型发展是指在社区的发展过程中，社区能够支配和利用影响他们生存与发展的资源，并享有控制和决定这些资源利用方式和管理方式的决策权。这意味着社区在有关政府部门和非政府组织的支持和帮助下，对发展项目的提议、规划、实施、管理、     

Microfinance and women's empowerment: A lesson from India

This article describes an NGO project intended to empower scheduled caste women working in the silk-reeling industry in India through the provision of microfinance. It documents the impact that the project had on their economic and social status over a period of time and highlights the negative consequences of excluding male relatives from playing any meaningful role. It suggests ways in which the project might have been made more male inclusive while still empowering women. At the same time, it acknowledges that even if the men's hostility to the project had been overcome, the women's micro enterprises were unlikely to have been viable commercially. This is because the project insisted that the women operate as a group in what was a high-risk area of economic activity, with no clear strategy as to how their work could be sustained.     

Participation in social forestry re-examined: a case-study from Bangladesh

Bangladesh has enthusiastically launched social forestry projects that make grandiose promises of seeking local community involvement and participation in the management of forest resources. This study examines the functioning of the Chandra Agroforestry Research and Demonstration Project to evaluate the actual extent and nature of popular participation it entails. After discussing the project and its locale, the methodology of the study is described as an analysis of qualitative and quantitative data collected in the period February-August 1994. The theoretical framework was based on a modified version of Zaman's framework that uses prevalence and opportunity as the indicators of participation. Analysis of prevalence indicators reveals that professional foresters make all major decisions for the project without consulting the farmers involved. The government also has sole responsibility for monitoring and evaluating the project, and the farmers are skeptical that the government will allow them to profit from the benefits arising from the project. Analysis of opportunity indicators shows that the project is not decentralized, cooperative and collaborative linkages have not been made, project flexibility has been sacrificed to bureaucracy, and the incentives promised to the farmers have not materialized. It is concluded that the participation of local residents in the Chandra project has been insignificant but that the project has succeeded in reducing 1) the historical distrust and conflict between forestry officials and local farmers, 2) encroachment on government lands, and 3) the rate of deforestation. In addition, the project has given participating farmers a sense of security.     

Learning from experience in urban programming: the case of the SHAHAR project in Bangladesh

The article offers a reflective analysis of various problems encountered and lessons learned in implementing a programme to improve the livelihood security of the urban poor in secondary cities of Bangladesh. The study is based on the author's involvement as an external action-research partner, and a review of relevant secondary literature. A number of key lessons emerge for the success of project operations. These are the need for (1) a clear understanding of the links between project activities and project objectives by all staff; (2) capacity building for all staff tailored to their needs; (3) clear targeting criteria and programme coverage; (4) a full complement of operational guidelines, work plans, and monitoring and evaluation design before implementation; (5) ensuring ‘partnership of organisations’ not ‘partnership of activities’; (6) ensuring the real involvement of beneficiaries in all aspects of the project; (7) staff empowerment and a flexible approach to operations; (8) routine reflections on project progress; and finally (9) being ready to take bold steps and make necessary strategic changes, even if doing so requires significant deviations from pre-set activities and hypothetical schedules as featured in the project proposals.