Dynamics of the Soviet illicit drug market

The demise of communism, Westernization, internal economic reform and the disintegration of the Soviet state create fertile soil for the growth of drug abuse and drug trafficking in (the former) USSR. Rates of drug abuse have soared since the mid-1980s, especially in the European parts of the (former) Union; also, organized interregional drug mafias have emerged to serve this rapidly expanding market. The (former) USSR does not now participate significantly in the international narcotics market as a consumer or supplier of illicit substances; however, this pattern of relative self-sufficiency could change dramatically in the 1990s. Convertibility of the ruble could result in a large flow of Western hard drugs such as cocaine, heroin or crack into European Russia. A rapid expansion of trade, travel and economic ties with Western countries will widen the pipeline for the movement of drugs. Finally, Moscow's weakening hold over the (former) Soviet Central Asian republics and Central Asia's generally bleak economic prospects correlate with an apparent massive expansion of drug crop cultivation in that region; if current trends continue, (former) Soviet Central Asia could well become a significant world supplier of hashish and opium products, during the 1990s.Research for this study was completed prior to the transformation of the USSR into the Commonwealth of Independent States.This paper was published as an occasional paper by the Kennan Institute of Advanced Soviet studies and has been updated since then.This paper was prepared for the Department of State as part of its external research program. Views or conclusions contained herein should not be interpreted as representing the official opinion or policy of the Department of State.     

External shocks,economic reforms,and the foreign trade behavior of the Soviet Union,China, and Hungary, 1970–1987

This article examines the external shocks and subsequent adjustment processes in the Soviet Union, China, and Hungary during 1974–76, 1979–81, and 1984–87. It compares the experiences of the three socialist countries with regard to external shocks to those of inward-and outward-oriented groups of newly industrializing countries (NICs). In contrast to the NICs, terms of trade effects were of secondary magnitude to export demand effects of external shocks in the three socialist countries during the first two periods. The oil-exporting Soviet Union had beneficial terms of trade effects during the first two periods, with unfavorable effects coming only in the third period. The adjustment responses to the external shocks varied greatly in the Soviet Union from the other two reform-oriented socialist countries and from both groups of NICs. It is interesting to note that the types of responses in the Soviet Union were quite opposite to that one observes for market economies. However, reform-oriented China and Hungary seemed to have response patterns similar to those of market economies, though China's response was similar to the outward-oriented NICs, while Hungary's was similar to the inward-oriented NICs.     

Regional trade and foreign currency regimes among the former Soviet Republics

The paper examines the problems arising from the adoption of national currencies in former Soviet Republics, and advances proposals to avoid excessive trade and output contractions. The move towards national currencies in many republics — though politically unavoidable and economically efficient in the medium term — is seen as having disruptive effects on interrepublican trade in the short term, with heavy losses of incomes and employment, which add to the costs of market transition. Mutual convertibility among the new currencies could allow some of the negative consequences on trade and production to be overcome, while in the event of mutual currently inconvertibility the effects on interrepublic trade could be disastrous and only some form of payments agreement could reduce the magnitude of the contraction. An intermediate currency regime which could sustain the level of income and employment would be based on the use of the Russian rouble as a regional means of payment. Such an event, however, would require as a pre-condition the stabilization of the Russian currency.     

Under the Radar: Airborne Arms Trafficking Operations in Africa

Airborne illicit arms traffickers from the former Soviet space are resourceful and adaptable international criminals who have built complex air trafficking networks by successfully cultivating strategic connections in a number of geographically distant states. This paper examines the airborne arms trafficking operations of networks from former Soviet states which transfer weapons and ammunition to areas of conflict in Africa, embargoed African states, or those descending into conflict. As such, these arms traffickers brazenly circumvent international regulations by obscuring their air cargo operations and securing impunity through subornation, fraud, and exploitation of lax regulations. Importantly, they rely on strategic connections in former Soviet states for a steady supply of arms, on states such as UAE for relaxed oversight and free trade zones for transit, product warehousing, and laundering of proceeds, and on carefully-cultivated connections with “big men” and/or local fixers in African states for speedy delivery and payment.     

Improving National Relations in the USSR

The problem of nationalities occupied a substantial place among the wide range of social problems raised at the Twenty-seventh CPSU Congress. The Soviet Union has been a pioneer in addressing the national question which, as V. I. Lenin wrote, is a worldwide phenomenon. It is one of the most acute questions in the history of mankind: the engendering of class antagonisms that inevitably entail national oppression, the lack of equality of nationalities before the law, and their inequality. Our country has convincingly demonstrated to the entire world that with the victory of socialism antagonisms in the sphere of national relations are being overcome. As noted in the new edition of the CPSU Program, "the Soviet Union has successfully resolved the national question that was left over from the past." In the course of socialist construction, the formerly backward national hinterlands have long ago vanished; socialist nations have joined to form an international community—the Soviet people—that is new in its social parameters; there have formed common cultural traits that are characteristic of Soviet people of all nationalities; national discord is a thing of the past; and the fraternal friendship of the peoples, forged in their common creative labor and tested in the most difficult of wars, has become the standard of life.     

Transferring gas-turbine technologies to the former Soviet Union: Opportunities and problems

The new nations of the Commonwealth of Independent States are notoriously energy- inefficient. States like Russia and Ukraine seek technologies from the West that will improve efficient combustion of fossil fuels. Recently, scientists in the United States and the former Soviet Union have explored the idea of transferring technologies to Russia and Ukraine to develop and mass-produce aeroderivative gas turbines, which promise to quickly replace power lost front the shut- down of unsafe nuclear reactors in Russia, Ukraine and the former Soviet republics. Production of these turbines could promote defense conversion in Russia and Ukraine and could provide opportunities for American companies to trade and invest in emerging markets. Despite these clear advantages, formidable obstacles impede the immediate development, production, and commercialization of this technology by American firms in the former Soviet republics. Constraints include competition from European firms that are developing and marketing similar technologies, unfavorable business and economic conditions in the former Soviet republics, and official Russian- US differences concerning the closure of nuclear power plants and development of oil and gas reserves.     

民族和睦的法学思辨——从民族区域自治看中国宪法的政治基础

＂民族區域自治制度＂是中國憲法中的重要制度,它與中國共産黨領導下多黨合作制、全國人民代表大會制和＂一國兩制＂一道構成了中國特色社會主義憲政的制度基礎,并展現出中國憲法與其他國家憲法不同的風貌。但要理解這一憲政制度,必須理解中國憲政的政治哲學基礎以及中國文明形成的歷史傳統。     

平行进口和欧洲共同体条约第81条的关系

平行进口是欧洲法院面临的一个棘手问题 ,欧洲共同体各成员国国内知识产权立法上的差异导致商品自由流动出现障碍 ,知识产权人利用国内立法通过协议或采取统一行为限制知识产权产品进入特定的市场 ,保护自己的利益 ,减少商业风险 ,避免竞争 ,实际上分割了市场 ,导致了包含在商品中的权利用尽。商品必须处于自由流通的状态 ,任何阻碍商品自由流动 ,影响成员国贸易的行为都是违反欧洲共同体条约第 81条的反竞争行为     

基于熵的环境法调整对象刍议简

环境法的调整对象是环境法学研究的重要问题之一,但环境法究竟是调整人与人之间的关系还是调整人与自然的关系一直以来都存在着很大争议.学者们出于侧重人类中心主义或生态中心主义的环境观的不同,在环境法是否能够调整人与自然关系的问题上持有不同的观点.本文基于熵的理论研究方法,兼采耗散结构论、协同论、系统论等科学研究成果认为,环境法调整的是人类影响自然环境的稳定状态的活动与自然环境的自身运动之间的协调关系,简而言之,即人与自然的关系.     

国际人权法上的迁徙自由和移徙工人的权利保护--以中国农民工为例

经济全球化促使人们充分享有迁徙自由这项不可剥夺的基本人权的同时,更促成了移徙工人的群体规模,从而使移徙工人权利保护成为国际人权法的一项重要内容。以中国农民工为例,移徙工人在其迁徙地的经济和社会发展中作出了巨大的贡献,但其所应当得到的与其所付出的存在着严重的不均衡态势。从长远来看,必须高度重视人类社会生态链中移徙工人权利保护这一环。     

Labor force participation in the Soviet and post-Soviet Baltic States

It is well documented that labor force participation rates fell precipitately as the economies of the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe made the transition from plan to market. However data allowing for direct comparison between the planned and transition periods of specific countries is rare. Here comparable data is used examining labor force participation in the Baltic States in 1990 (the late Soviet period), 1996, and 1999. While the data do indicate large drops in labor force participation, much of the decrease was concentrated among older individuals (those over 55) and women.     

Preventing Wildlife Crimes: Solutions That Can Overcome the ‘Tragedy of the Commons’

The 'tragedy of the commons' dilemma occurs when individuals working independently of one another, will overuse a common-property resource for short-term benefits while decimating the resource for long-term use (Hardin 1968). This is often found in the field of wildlife crimes where species become overexploited to increase short-term profits while endangering and eliminating a natural resource for future users. Wildlife crimes suffering from the ‘tragedy’ need to be prevented in order for species to avoid extinction while also conserving a natural resource that monetarily benefits numerous people and their respective communities. Current approaches to the illegal wildlife trade include implementing trade bans or regulatory schemes at the national and international level, yet their effectiveness of reducing the trade is unknown. Perhaps, a better approach in reducing the illegal wildlife trade is a combination of making it more difficult to poach (i.e. situational crime prevention) and incentivizing locals to abstain from poaching. This paper will first review the literature on wildlife crimes and then use a case study approach that will examine the literature on the illegal parrot trade, the market for wildlife skins, and over-fishing. Through these case studies, a comprehensive review of the problem will be detailed as well as innovative conservation solutions that show promise in reducing the poaching and exploitation of species. Amongst these solutions will be the use of situational crime prevention that has shown immediate reductions in crime when tailored towards highly-targeted areas and crimes.     

Transforming the Post-Soviet Research Systems Through Incubating Technological Entrepreneurship

For many years the Soviet Union and the Eastern block countries (member countries of the former Warsaw pact) had been considered as the main military competitors of the western countries buttressed in their struggle against the West by their economic and scientific resources. The Warsaw pact countries had high levels of R&D investments, a large number of researchers and engineers, and diverse research facilities. On the other hand, output indicators (patent applications, number of papers, scientific citations, etc.), and especially the rates of technological innovation were not so impressive. This paper analyzes the sources of these differences with special attention to the functions played by science and technology (S&T) programs in the formerly communist societies of Europe and Russia. The dynamics of changes in the R&D potential in these countries are considered along with ways and possible scenarios of convergence towards the national systems of innovation of developed western economies. Special emphasis is assigned to the constructive role that technology transfer and commercialization processes along with the use of a network of virtual incubators and the promotion of technological entrepreneurship, can play in fostering a socio-economic renaissance in Eastern Europe and Russia.     

The role of R&D and input trade in productivity growth: innovation and technology spillovers

Productivity improvements generally are driven by technology innovation and its spillovers. This study explores the role of R&D investment and intermediate input trade in productivity growth using country-industry-level data for 25 advanced and emerging economies. This paper confirms that R&D investment and intermediate input import/export (both intra- and inter-industry) with technologically advanced economies play important roles in productivity growth in non-frontier countries. We further find that the productivity gains of technology spillovers via input trade channels are likely larger for countries/industries where technology converges to the frontier. These findings imply that the recent slowdown in R&D investment and intermediate input trade in some advanced economies may contribute to declining productivity growth. The potential productivity improvements from R&D investment and free trade as well as the importance of domestic capacity in facilitating technology spillovers should be recognized.

     

Post-colonial trade between Russia and former Soviet republics: back to big brother?

We examine the developments in trade patterns between the former Soviet republics in the years following the initial breakup shock. After a huge fall following the Soviet breakup of the early 1990s, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) trade with Russia began improving, and there have been recent formal efforts at Eurasian Economic Integration. This might be taken, a priori, as contrary to the hypothesis of gradual decline in Head, Mayer and Ries (HMR in J Int Econ 81(1):1–14, 2010)—or perhaps as evidence of the power of restored trade agreements, such as the incipient Eurasian Economic Union. We decompose the region’s trade into theory-consistent ‘gravity’ components, in order to analyze dynamic changes in the components since the Soviet era. Despite the sharp falls after 1991, trade in 1995 still shows strong ties, consistent with high dyadic (country pair) components linked to trade specialization. By contrast, in the second decade, the ties (dyads) began to weaken significantly and calibrated trade costs tend to rise, despite attempts at renewed integration. Rather, the sharp improvement in trade volumes was mainly due to the sharp recoveries in GDP levels for both Russia and many of the Central Asian Countries, associated with improvements in the global economy and economic ties with the World (especially with EU and China). We would therefore conclude that the recovery in trade between Russia and Central Asia reflects monadic factors (i.e., the regional economic recovery) and does not contradict the HMR (2010) hypothesis. Nevertheless, further, dynamic analysis shows that there are strong long-run ties within the CIS and Russia, which are not declining, and that sticky post-colonial adjustment does not appear set to eliminate the current bias of trade between these republics.

     

人文主义法学引论

人文主义法学是指崇尚人的价值、尊重人的本性的法学观点或法学思想体系。人文主义法学的指导思想是将人作为目的。人文主义法学的基本原则及对法律思想的影响表现在如下方面:尊重人的需要和利益原则促进了权利、人权、自由的产生和发展;防范人的恶性原则促进了法治概念、民主政府、分权、法律程序、法律监督的产生和发展;宽容人的弱点原则主张法律对人的行为不宜提出过高的要求;鼓励人的优点原则主张法律允许人们参与法律实践活动、鼓励人的奉献行为。人文主义法学的兴起将促进法学研究和法律实践的发展。     

比较优势理论在中国现阶段的适用性实证

比较优势理论是国际贸易理论的基石,不但在很大程度上解释了国际贸易发生的原因和指出了一个国家或地区发展国际贸易的方向,也是一个国家或地区制定经济发展战略的重要基础经济理论之一。有数据实证分析说明,中国当前的国际贸易产品结构中显示出了与中国要素禀赋结构相一致的比较优势,从而验证了中国经济的增长受益于遵循比较优势的发展,因此,中国未来的经济发展战略仍然应该建立在遵循比较优势的发展理论基础之上。     

The long-term volume of East Europe's foreign trade: An estimate

The transformation process of East European (EE) countries led to the disappearance of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, the former Soviet-bloc economic integration scheme, as well as to other changes in the foreign trade sector of those economies. This study seeks to identify the potential long run modifications in the volume of trade of EE countries by using a well-established model employed in the foreign trade literature, the gravity equation. Quantitative results suggest that in the next decades trade between East and West European countries could double from its present level.     

近代中国宪政缩影——辛亥百年解读云南护国运动

1908年清末立宪至今,中国宪政已有百年历史。宪政从西方传来之时,正值中华民族生死存亡之际,反帝救亡成为当时的主旋律。宪政之于近代中国也因此被赋予了双重目标,即追求民主政治与追求民族独立的目标联系在一起,且后者优于前者。近代宪政不可避免地被当作功利性的手段,其自身的价值内涵却被忽略了。     

从“主、客二分”到“主、客一体”

"主、客二分"和"主、客一体"这两种范式的基本特点和主要区别在于,前者的基本观点是"主体=人、客体=物",后者的基本观点是"主体≠人、客体≠物"。从"主、客二分"到"主、客一体"的范式转变,具有重要的意义和作用:是彻底克服"主、客二分"范式的逻辑弊病,发扬"主、客一体"范式理论优势的需要;是发展环境资源保护事业,建设生态文明的需要;是告别旧时代,信任和投入新时代的需要;是学科健康发展、深化科学研究和创新的需要。