Adding immigrants to microsimulation models

Forecasts of the financial status of Social Security's Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) programs and forecasts of the effects of various OASDI policy options on Americans would be improved if information about the earnings and labor force behavior of various population subgroups were included in projection models. Focusing on the projection of immigrant earnings, this article proffers a conceptual basis for incorporating immigration into microsimulation models. Key results from research on immigrant earnings, as described in the first article in this trilogy--"Research on Immigrant Earnings"--are linked to methods for forecasting individual earnings in microsimulation models. The research on immigrant earnings also inspires new methods for forecasting earnings in microsimulation models as well as the projection of immigrant emigration. Forecasting immigrant earnings and emigration is discussed in the context of a "closed system"--that is, forecasts are only made for a given population, which is represented in the base sample of the microsimulation model. The third article in our trilogy--"Incorporating Immigrant Flows into Microsimulation Models"--explores how to project immigrant earnings in the context of an "open system," which includes future immigrants.     

Naturalization ceremonies and the role of immigrants in the American nation

Although immigration is an essential element in the American national story, it presents difficulties for constructing national membership and national identity in terms of shared intrinsic values. In this article, I analyze speeches made at naturalization ceremonies during two time periods (1950–1970 and 2003–present) to examine the evolving roles of immigrants, as articulated to immigrants themselves. Naturalization ceremonies are a unique research site because the usually implied nationalist content is made explicit to brand new members of the nation. I find a shift in the framing from immigrants as potential liabilities and weak links in the earlier period to immigrants as morally superior redeemers of the American nation in the later period. I discuss the significance of this shift and the relationship between the roles presented at naturalization ceremonies and the discourse found elsewhere in the public sphere.     

Seeking sanctuary: Housing undocumented immigrants

This paper studies housing market outcomes of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. and explores the mechanisms behind the differential prices that immigrants pay for shelter. I show that undocumented renters pay a premium for housing relative to observably similar, documented, immigrant renters occupying similar housing. Building on theory and suggestive evidence that the premium is the result of search frictions driven by fear of deportation, I employ a triple-differences strategy to evaluate the impacts of sanctuary city policies on housing market outcomes of undocumented immigrants. I find that sanctuary city policies, which limit immigration enforcement, reduce housing costs of undocumented renters, suggesting such policies mitigate search frictions for this group.     

Visibility and facticity in policy diffusion: going beyond the prevailing binarity

Quantitative-oriented diffusion studies, either focused on diffusion patterns or mechanisms, take for granted that policy adoptions are manifest and therefore directly observable in the legislation. A more nuanced perspective of policy adoption taking into account gradual differences between adoption and non-adoption is proposed with this paper, valid for diffusion among communities and states in federal settings and among countries on the global level. Besides the aspect of visibility, intentions are also important when measures are adopted. While some measures are transferred with a clear instrumental aim, others are rather transferred for symbolical reasons. Looking at specific processes, the paper proposes a concept that disentangles the current understanding of policy diffusion and provides empirical evidence that current diffusion research misconceives instances. The four different transfer types are illustrated with empirical evidence from sub-national energy policy-making in Switzerland. The systematic investigation of the cases allows to finding explanations for the different transfer types.     

Political action of immigrants in the Netherlands: class or ethnicity?

Abstract. The political action of immigrant ethnic minorities in the Netherlands is examined in an attempt to assess the relevance of the neo-Marxist theory of the British sociologists Miles and Phizacklea, who identify three processes of political action: the black unity process, the class unity process and the ethnic organisation process. On the basis of available evidence from the Dutch case it is argued that in present circumstances neither black unity nor class unity are very likely, and that immigrants are likely to adopt an ethnic organisation perspective. Such a perspective is not due to racial exclusion within the working class. This conclusion differs from that of Miles and Phizacklea. It is shown that the theory applies to societies in which classes or class fractions can be clearly identified, but less to societies of another type such as the Dutch. Moreover, it is shown that Miles and Phizacklea tend to overemphasise the effects of native white racism on immigrant political action and neglect the dynamics of ethnicity and its mobilising force.     

Public and Private Think Tank Visibility in the Danish Parliament and Media

While the number of think tanks in Denmark has increased considerably in recent decades, our knowledge about their visibility in political arenas is limited. The article explores how and why the mentions of private and public think tanks in the parliamentary and media arenas has developed from 2005 to 2018. Building on insights from previous studies of think tanks, publicly funded think tanks are expected to achieve more parliamentary mentions than private think tanks because they are expected to be more heavily influenced by institutionalized norms to target inside actors through parliament. By contrast, privately funded think tanks are expected to achieve more media mentions than public think tanks, because they are policymaking outsiders and emphasize public advocacy over direct influence. Although publicly funded think tanks have been more visible in the parliamentary arena than private think tanks, their visibility has declined. Private think tanks are more visible than public think tanks, but media visibility for privately funded think tanks also drops towards the end of the period. The article concludes that public or private funding cannot fully explain changes in think tank visibility in the two arenas over time. Instead media and parliamentary mentions are driven by a handful of think tanks while most think tanks struggle to achieve and maintain parliamentary and media visibility over time.     

Immigration and the new politics of inclusion and exclusion in the European Union: The effect of elites and the EU on individual-level opinions regarding European and non-European immigrants

Abstract. Within European politics, a distinction is currently being made at the elite level between internal and external immigration, with individuals from EU countries being given special rights and privileges when they migrate within the EU. This paper addresses the question of whether individual EU citizens also view the two types of immigrants differently and what structures their beliefs regarding these two sources of migration. The findings indicate that (a) the vast majority of EU citizens view internal and external migration as identical and (b) elite cues and debates regarding immigration within each of the countries are helping individuals form their opinions regarding the two different types of immigration. These findings and their implications are discussed in the body of the paper.     

The effects of tougher enforcement on the job prospects of recent Latin American immigrants

Attempts to enforce immigration laws in the U.S. interior have proliferated in recent years, yet the effects of these laws on immigrants are largely unknown. This paper examines whether increases in immigration‐related law enforcement since 2001 have adversely affected the labor market outcomes of low‐education male immigrants from Latin America, a group that comprises the bulk of undocumented workers in the U.S. The crackdown on the use of fraudulent Social Security numbers, increased requirements for government‐issued identification, and other changes associated with greater focus on national security likely lowered the demand for undocumented foreign‐born workers in the years following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Using Current Population Survey data and a difference‐in‐differences estimation technique, we find strong evidence of worse labor market outcomes among recent Latin American immigrants in the post‐9/11 period relative to natives and prior Latin American immigrants. The results indicate a decline in employment, hours worked, and earnings among recent male Latin American immigrants relative to similarly low‐skilled black and Hispanic natives and vis‐à‐vis Latin American immigrants who have been in the U.S. longer. Our findings are consistent with firms increasingly substituting legal workers for undocumented labor in the years following 9/11. © 2009 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

English reactions to immigrants now and 70 years ago

In 1917 the ‘Jewish‐Bolshevik’ threat replaced the Jewish‐German’ menace in British popular opinion. The Morning Post and The Times were in the forefront of the campaign to promote White Russia and attribute the Bolsheviks' rise to power as part of a worldwide Jewish conspiracy. The press's antisemitic agitation was, however, limited in scope and, with the exposure of The Protocols in 1921, was relegated to extreme‐right publications.     

Incorporating immigrants as foreigners: multicultural politics in Japan

With the growth of immigrant population over the past couple of decades, a ‘multicultural’ discourse has emerged in Japan. A notable point is that immigrants are expected to be incorporated into the host society primarily as foreigners rather than as Japanese nationals with full citizenship rights. The purpose of this article is to understand this prevailing mode of immigrant incorporation and to consider the comparative implications. By examining the discursive aspects of claims-making on behalf of both old-timer and newcomer immigrants, I argue that the underlying opportunity structures have been reproduced in each phase of immigration-related development in Japan, facilitating the use of the ‘foreigner’ category in advocacy efforts. Official recognition of the category has also helped to further institutionalize it as the main target of immigrant policy. In comparative perspective, ‘incorporation as foreigners’ can be understood as a variant of the ethnic model of immigration regimes in that it tends to reinforce the dominant ethnocultural conception of Japanese nationhood.     

Re-thinking urban citizenship for immigrants from a policy perspective: the case of Barcelona

This article proposes that the role of cities in immigrant integration be reconsidered through the prism of urban citizenship, looking at how local policies co-regulate immigrants’ status, rights and identity. It argues that urban citizenship connects two dominant understandings of citizenship, as city governments are under pressure to reconcile the normative perspective of formal membership of the state with the claims for rights expressed by excluded parts of the urban citizenry. A case study of an inclusive way of regulating citizenship in Barcelona illustrates how a citizenship perspective can cast light on the specific ways in which cities regulate immigrant citizenship in interaction with higher levels of government, and highlights some of the levers cities possess to modify the boundaries between inclusion and exclusion of immigrants locally.     

Constructing citizenship: framing unauthorized immigrants in market terms

We show how conceptions of ‘market citizenship’ hold a central place in three distinct arenas: political theory; mainstream cultural narratives, and the views expressed by middle class Latino immigrants. Our analyses of both print media coverage and interviews with middle class Latino immigrants demonstrate that the narrative of market citizenship has heavily influenced the collective US understanding of state membership. This project not only finds a clear market framing in news coverage of the immigration issue, but finds that members of the Latino community have directly engaged with this frame and use it to refute the largely negative contentions of the popular press.