苏联文化革命与苏联解体

列宁晚期在总结十月革命后社会主义革命和社会主义建设的基础上 ,提出文化革命的思想 ,这是列宁关于在一个经济文化落后的国家里如何建设社会主义的战略思考 ,即 ,一是提高全民的文化素质 ;一是改造国家机关。这是关系到社会主义国家前途命运的大事。但是 ,列宁之后的历代继承人都未能领会和贯彻他的思想 ,将文化革命仅仅局限在纯文化领域 ,而在改造国家机关方面出了问题 ,结果积重难返 ,导致苏联解体。     

Political crises,strategic choices,and terrorism: The rise and fall of the Uruguayan Tupamaros

In this article we offer a first attempt at providing a set of universal grading criteria for determining on what basis, and how far, an item of discursive content can be considered “terroristic.” In doing so, we draw loosely on the existing COPINE scale for child abuse images. The scale described in the article is not intended to reflect actual risk of engagement in terrorist violence, nor is it intended to have evidential validity in relation to offenses in certain jurisdictions relating to “terrorist publications.” Rather, by formalising assumptions which seem already to be latent in the literature on terrorist use of the Internet, it aspires to serve as a starting point for a more methodologically coherent approach to relationships between content—particularly online content—and terrorism.     

Militarized disputes,incidents, and crises: Identification and classification

The Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) dataset was generated as part of the broader data‐generation efforts of DDIR. The paper (1) briefly lays out the underlying rationale and procedures used in developing the MID dataset, (2) highlights some conceptual and empirical problems associated with the dataset, (3) discusses the conceptual and empirical distinctions made among incidents, disputes, crises, and wars, and (4) offers suggestions for updating and expanding the MID dataset.     

The Berlin Republic,Iraq, and the Use of Force

This article holds that German security policy and attitudes towards the use of force remain framed by the distinct strategic culture that emerged during West Germany’s rearmament and international rehabilitation in the 1950’s. This strategic culture, characterised by strong anti-military sentiment and a commitment to multilateral diplomacy and international law, determined Germany’s position over Iraq and its ongoing opposition to the US-led invasion of the country. However, the strength and highly vociferous nature of Germany’s opposition to US policy also indicated that German strategic culture is itself evolving, as both elites and society reconsider aspects of German national history and the role of collective memory. Much of this new discourse relates to the notion of the ‘Berlin Republic’, which in foreign and security policy terms is synonymous with the emergence of greater self confidence, the introduction of more ‘national’ vocabulary into foregin policy statements and a less reflexive attitude to transatlantic security.     

Northern NGO advocacy: Perceptions,reality, and the challenge

This article reports the results of and conclusions from a survey of Northern NGOs conducted during 1998 and 1999 for the purposes of testing generalised criticisms of Northern NGO advocacy and providing benchmarks for further research on the policy impact of the Washington Advocacy office of Oxfam International. Based on the survey findings, the author challenges Northern NGOs to evaluate more thoroughly their advocacy so that they may effectively demonstrate their advocacy achievements and, by so doing, confidently invest a greater proportion of resources into advocacy programmes which effectively contribute to their goals of reducing poverty.     

The USSR and its Diplomatic Partners, 1917-91

After its break with established diplomatic partners in 1917 the Soviet government moved slowly to reconstruct its relations with the outside world. Over the period up to 1991, the largest number of exchanges took place with Finland, and after the Second World War, with Bulgaria and the GDR. But the major capitalist countries steadily became more prominent, and the USA was the USSR's most important diplomatic partner during the 1970s. Similarly, the CMEA states were the USSR's main partners after the Second World War, but by the late 1980s it was NATO member states that predominated. Patterns of this kind are consistent with theories that have suggested the gradual 'socialization' of revolutionary states as they necessarily engage in patterns of interaction with the international community.     

印中关系：认知与前景

崛起中的印度和中国之间的相互认知和政策已成为世界范围公开辩论的焦点。人们普遍认为印中两国注定会成为国际体系的两大支柱，两国关系的未来走向将会对亚洲地区乃至整个世界产生重要影响。这种辩论除了带来有限的可见性，只会使印中之间原本就盘根错节的关系更为复杂。事实上，印中两国也在不断地增强相互理解，这对于两国关系的发展是十分有益的。     

Interdependence,asymmetric crises,and European defence cooperation

Although international crises are often believed to represent windows of opportunity to strengthen European defence cooperation, recent crises have not seemed to produce a clear convergence of European Union (EU) member states’ security interests. This article seeks to address this puzzle by arguing that European defence cooperation is a response to crises that place European states in a situation of military interdependence. Conversely, asymmetric crises, i.e. crises that affect European states unevenly, encourage those states to maintain their autonomy of action. This theoretical argument is supported by two case studies: the failure of the European Defence Community in the early 1950s and the current difficulties experienced by the EU’s military operations. These two cases illustrate a striking continuity in that, because of (neo)colonial ties in particular, European states are often unevenly affected by international crises, which tends to make defence cooperation less effective.     

Power,resolve and bargaining in international crises: A spatial theory

In this paper the spatial model of crisis bargaining is utilized to derive a number of hypotheses relating the relative power and resolve of crisis participants to crisis outcomes. The resolve and two power variables are defined and the manner in which they are incorporated into the model is demonstrated. The model, which represents a synthesis of traditional utility based bargaining models and the spatial theory of voting, is then used to establish the theoretical linkages among these variables and all possible outcomes of international crises. Among the more interesting results is that crises in which one party is much more likely to win a war should one occur and the other party is much more resolved are extremely likely to end in war. The paper concludes with a discussion of the relevance of these findings to a number of topics in the international relations literature, including Schelling's strategy of commitment.     

Secession crises,human welfare and conflict resolution

Violent and persistent inter-group conflict often results from antagonisms that arise between minority groups and central governments over the oppressive treatment of the minority group and over efforts by the minority group to secede from the parent state. The legal principles that have guided international involvement in these secession crises, namely self-determination of peoples and territorial integrity of the state, have not been effective or consistent inducements for resolution or prevention of the outbreak of conflict. This paper considers how international recognition of secessionist claims could be made dependent on whether the relevant minority group or central government lays out the most convincing plans for enhancing the welfare of the population, avoiding exclusionary policies, and promoting inter-group cooperation and stability rather than inter-group conflict and disorder. The authors urge policy makers to develop judgment criteria that reflect knowledge of these concerns to induce conditions more favourable for stability and peace.     

当前美国“二元化”外交政策的表现、成因和走势

当前,美国外交政策明显呈二元化结构:一方是特朗普政府,另一方是美国现实政治。特朗普政府试图进行全球收缩、向盟国索取好处、发起贸易摩擦,其目的是休养生息,保证美国第一。受全球霸权惯性思维和商业利益驱使,现实政治又使美国不得不保持在相关地区的存在,拒绝放弃全球地缘政治利益。即使特朗普2020年连任总统成功,政府与现实政治间的博弈也不会停止,但两者之间的差距会有所收窄。     

The impact of election frequency and crises upon the arms race

This paper examines the impact of election frequency and crises upon the arms race via the computer simulation introduced in Dacey and Pendegraft (1988). We answer two basic questions. First, in an arms race are there advantages to holding elections frequently (i.e., on a short interval) as opposed to infrequently (i.e., on a long interval)? Second, do crises have an influence on the outcome of arms races, and if so, how?

The answers to these questions are straightforward. For the first question, we find that in round‐robin tournament play (i.e., traditional Axelrod‐type play) the advantage rests with the short election interval players, and in inter‐group play it rests with the long election interval players. For the second question we find that crises have a pronounced effect, and the size of the effect depends on the relationship between election frequency and the frequency with which losing players are removed from the tournament. [Key Words: Election frequency, Crises, Arms Race]     

美国实战威慑核战略：理论、历史与现实

以《不扩散核武器条约》为基础的国际防扩散制度已经走过了半个世纪,如今却面临日益严峻的挑战。对于全球防扩散与核裁军进程出现的倒退,美国负有特殊的责任。这突出表现在三个相互关联的理论、历史和现实问题上。首先,经典核威慑理论并不能充分解释美国矛盾的核战略和防扩散政策。以实战威慑和延伸威慑构成的绝对自由核战略才是长期指导美国核政策实践的根本。其次,通过对20世纪50～60年代的冷战史进行再挖掘可以得知,一般认为的美国核战略在主张核武器用于实战的保守派和主张核武器仅用于威慑的自由派之间摇摆,实际上夸大了自由派对美国核战略的影响。美国在大多数总统任期内将绝对自由核战略作为拱卫其构建战后国际秩序和获得对苏联战略优势的关键。最后,核武器与非核武器的互动是当前核时代的一个显著特征。随着新技术革命的兴起,传统的核威慑和战略稳定正面临极为复杂的挑战。然而,美国依旧以核常融合、攻防兼备构筑绝对优势,并以新兴技术、跨域威慑确保全面制胜。其结果持续引发由核武器与常规武器互动、谋求技术先发优势以及追求绝对自由所导致的"三元悖论",从而对全球战略稳定和国际防扩散制度产生进一步冲击。     

Defending the 'postwar petroleum order': The US, Britain and the 1954 Saudi-Onassis Tanker deal

During the early Cold War, Britain and the US fashioned a set of arrangements described collectively in this article as the 'postwar petroleum order', which appropriated Persian Gulf oil to fuel European reconstruction and defence. When Saudi Arabia organized a state oil-tanker company with Aristotle Onassis in 1954, it challenged the terms of those arrangements. The affair provides a case study in contrasting British and American approaches towards oil diplomacy and Arab nationalism. Whereas London crusaded for an Anglo-American campaign to abolish the Saudi-Onassis company, Washington wanted the Arabian-American Oil Company to accomplish the same objective by providing financial incentives to King Sa'ud's government.