区域安全竞争中的东亚区域主义——基于对欧洲/北美区域主义的比较分析

区域主义的启动和深化受区域内外安全环境的影响。欧洲区域主义的启动和深化与其内外安全环境之间呈正相关关系,因而它得以历经冷战而不衰,并在冷战后进一步强化。比较而言,北美区域主义的深化与其内外安全环境总体上都是负相关关系,因而北美区域主义至今基本上仍仅限于经济领域。与北美区域主义类似,东亚区域主义的深化与东亚区域内外安全环境也基本上是负相关关系,但不同的是,由于东亚区域的内部安全环境是竞争性的,因此东亚区域的共同体感觉虽然呈日益强化之势,但总体上说是脆弱的。东亚区域主义的深化不仅受区域内部安全竞争的挑战,还受到区域外部的竞争性安全环境———区域间大国和全球大国安全竞争———的制约。     

韩国与东亚地区主义的未来

本文首先回顾了东亚各国签订双边和多边自由贸易协定的历程,认为随着东亚各国相互依赖的加强,东亚的经济一体化将进一步加深,并提出了未来东亚地区主义发展的三种可能方案,进而分析了各种方案可能性的程度。韩国无论在经济领域还是战略方面,都应该在建立东亚合作的进程中发挥重要作用。一定程度上,东盟和韩国在东亚地区自由贸易协定达成的过程中拥有更广阔的空间,同时在中日之间也发挥着协调者和推动者的重要角色。     

结构性地区主义与开放性地区主义——西欧与东亚的比较

全球化浪潮下,地区主义伴随区域一体化得到迅速发展。在西欧一体化过程中,西欧国家通过重视合法协定、强调功能整合以及超国家机构的建设形成了结构性地区主义;而在东亚一体化发展中,东亚国家则强调不干涉原则,突出国家主权至上,抵制和质疑超国家机构,从而形成了弱机制化的开放性地区主义。两种性质的地区主义的成因主要在于:西欧和东亚的历史发展体系不同,导致其各自成员国之间的经济政治制度同质性程度不同,成员国之间的集体认同以及对民族国家主权的价值观存在差异。就发展趋向而言,自金融危机后,欧洲债务危机频现,暴露了规范严谨的结构性地区主义的僵化弊病,而东亚一体化过程中,东盟、10+1、10+3、东亚峰会等对话形式层出不穷,则表明了缺乏规范机制下的地区合作效率的不足。     

The Supply Side of Second-Order Elections: Comparing German National and European Election Manifestos

The second-order character of past European elections is a well-established hypothesis with respect to voter turnout and voting behaviour. This paper presents a conceptual framework for testing this hypothesis on the supply side of European elections. It includes three groups of indicators allowing for the comparison of national and European election manifestos to determine the latter's second-order nature: (1) resource allocation, measured by the number of actors involved in manifesto adoption and by the manifestos' length; (2) the manifestos' content, comparing issue congruence and framing; and (3) political competition, measured by the ideological distance between manifestos. Building on this, we analyse the manifestos of all relevant German parties in the 2009 European and national elections using Comparative Manifesto Project data as well as original, self-created data on election manifestos. We find major variations between parties which can neither be explained by government participation nor satisfaction with the European Union.     

The relationship between Kenneth Koma and the Botswana Democratic Party, 1965-2003

This article assesses the weaknesses of opposition in Botswanathrough the case of Kenneth Koma, the influential Presidentof the Botswana National Front (BNF) from 1977 to 2001. Thisis done by examining the perception that from 1997 Koma's relationshipwith the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) destabilizedand weakened the opposition in the country. The article challengesa view, held by some of his detractors in the opposition, thathis leadership style was out of tune with global trends. Italso argues that what some people have viewed as ‘tribalism’— the domination of the BDP leadership by members of theBangwato tribe (of which Koma is also a member) — seemsto be primarily a matter of expediency. This alleged tribalismis used by Koma's critics as a smear. The article analyzes therelationship between Koma and the BDP at both political andpersonal levels. At the political level, Koma's failure to keepthe BNF united has been capitalized on by the BDP to tightenits grip on power. At the personal level, Koma has used hisconnections in the BDP to advantage in his business dealings.Koma's cult status and his personal and political choices havetherefore significantly contributed to de facto one-party rulein Botswana.     

政治身份认同与缅甸果敢同盟军的瓦解

生存达二十年之久的缅甸非政府武装组织果敢同盟军于2009年8月被缅甸中央政府解除武装而宣告瓦解。本文通过对果敢同盟军、佤邦联合军和掸邦东同盟军这三个背景相似的缅甸非政府武装组织的比较研究,提出导致果敢同盟军瓦解的内部深层次的支撑性原因是该组织政治身份认同的缺失的观点。通过这一案例,本文试图提出政治身份认同是非政府武装组织在主权国家内生存的必要条件这一一般性假说。     

构建东亚认同:意义、问题与途径

构建东亚认同有助于增进东亚的凝聚力、推动区域合作、提高东亚的国际地位.历史上东亚形成的独具特色的文化体系和现今东亚区域内已有的经济联系,在心理和物质两个方面为东亚认同的构建奠定了基础.近年来东亚认同逐渐浮出水面,同时也面临着诸多困难与挑战.文化交流合作能够推进东亚区域内各种文化的相互融合与相互影响,增加地区共同文化和区域意识的内涵,唤醒东亚尘封在历史中的集体记忆并培养新的情感.     

Transcending the National / Asserting the National: How Stateless Nations like Scotland, Wales and Catalonia React to European Integration

How can minority nations, how can minority nationalists who assert their national identity not only accept, but in some cases even actively fight for a process of European integration which may have started to “transcend the national”? The article discusses what Europe has to offer them, and in what ways that offer may be “flawed”. It will compare nationalist strategies (Europe of the Regions, Independence in Europe), and establish relations between the choice of an European strategy and the consolidation of minority nationalism at home.     

The Soviet Military Administration and East German Elections, Autumn 1946

Even before the capitulation of Germany in 1945 the Soviet Union had begun to make preparations for a step-by-step communist seizure of power in the territories it controlled. This paper shows that the elections in the Soviet Occupation Zone (SBZ) in autumn 1946 were part of this radical change. Unpublished Russian documents provide evidence that Soviet military authorities had planned almost every detail of this campaign to ensure that the Socialist Unity Party of German (SED) headed the poll — and this was even more evident after the crushing defeat of the communists in Hungary and Austria in 1945. In any case the Soviets were determined that such defeat should not happen again due to Stalin's postwar plans to establish a predominantly communist Germany.     

Contrasting First- and Second-Order Electoral Behaviour: Determinants of Individual Party Choice in European and German Federal Elections

In contrast to national elections, both parties and voters are assumed to think that ‘less is at stake’ in European elections: Campaigns are less intense, turnout is lower, and citizens are more inclined to ‘vote with their hearts’. The latter should be reflected in differing rationales of voting – party choice should not be based on identical determinants in national and European elections. However, this hypothesis has not been sufficiently tested and most of the research is based on the analysis of aggregated data while causal explanations are located on the micro level. This paper compares vote functions of individuals in regard to the 2009 European Parliament election as well as the 2009 German Federal election. Using data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES), comparison of explanatory models shows that party choice on both levels is neither fundamentally different nor does it fit into the pattern of second-order electoral behaviour.     

民主选举与社会分裂——东亚民主转型国家与地区的政治与政局

东亚民主转型国家和地区发生的社会分裂与其实行的民主制度之间存在较强的关联性。在经济发展不平衡、贫富差距大、民族国家意识淡泊及选举文化有欠成熟的情况下,参与选举的政治势力和社会群体倾向于将投票及相关活动视为扩大自身利益和削弱对方力量的机会,导致不同政治势力和社会群体之间的对立和冲突超出可控范围。     

苏联东欧国家在党群关系方面的教训

代表“最广大人民的根本利益”的实质是如何处理党与人民群众之间的关系,既是马克思主义的一个基本理论问题,也是共产党人的一个实践问题,贯穿于社会主义革命和建设的始终。搞好党群关系不是常常挂在嘴边上的说教,而是时时关系到群众切身利益的实事。不能以党和国家的名义,借口人民群众根本的或长远的利益来搞大而空的事情,从而伤害人民群众具体的切身利益。“公仆”和“主人”之间出现了严重的错位现象,不仅影响了党群关系,由此产生的党群之间的矛盾与冲突甚至成为苏东社会主义国家遭受重大挫折的主要原因。