Primary Voters Versus Caucus Goers and the Peripheral Motivations of Political Participation

Depending on their state of residence, Americans can participate in Presidential nomination contests either by voting in a primary or by attending a caucus. Since caucus participation requires more time and effort than primary voting, it has long been thought that caucuses must attract a more partisan, activist, and politically extreme cohort of citizens than primaries. This paper challenges the view that more burdensome electoral institutions necessarily ought to attract more politically engaged citizens. I propose a theory of peripheral motivations that predicts caucus goers and primary voters will not differ in terms of their political attitudes or interest, but they will differ in their levels of community engagement. The key insight is that many of the reasons why citizens choose to participate or abstain from politics actually have little to do with politics. Analysis of two surveys from the 2008 Presidential election substantiates the theoretical expectations.     

Determinants of the U.S. wheat producer support price: Do presidential elections matter?

The paper's focus is on the determinants of the U.S. wheat producer support price. The results of the time-series analysis suggest that this price is largely determined by the previous price, the expected U.S. share in world exports, and expected program costs. Presidential elections also influence U.S. wheat price policies. All other things being equal, the support price tends to be lower in election years than in other years. This suggests that small interest groups' relative political economic power may be less pronounced in election years if they do not succeed in positioning themselves on the political economic market such that they contain the potentially decisive voter.     

The activists decide: the preferences of party activists in the 2016 presidential nominations

ABSTRACT

One view of presidential nominations in the United States [Steger, Wayne P. 2007. “Who Wins Presidential Nominations and Why: An Updated Forecast of the Presidential Primary Vote.” Presidential Research Quarterly 60: 91–97; Cohen, Marty, David Karol, Hans Noel, and John Zaller. 2008. The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform. Chicago: University of Chicago Press; Silver, Nate. 2016. “The Republican Party May Be Failing.” FiveThirtyEight. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-republican-party-may-be-failing/] claims that the support of political elites is causally related to success in the nomination. The mechanisms for this relationship include party activists, who follow the cues party leaders send and provide necessary support to candidates in primaries and caucuses. This mechanism has not been explicitly tested. This paper explores the preferences of party activists in light of the unified elite preferences among Democrats and the lack of such unity among Republicans. Some activists in each party resist the signals from elites, but the resistance is far less widespread in the Democratic Party, where party leaders exhibited consensus support for the eventual nominee.     

Presidential Party,Incumbency, and the Effects of Economic Fluctuations on House Elections, 1916–1996

There is little professional consensusregarding the effect of economic conditionson House Elections. We argue that recentwork still uses the paradigm of Party toorganize their data and tests. Given thatrecent developments in the theory ofcongress emphasize the paradigm ofIncumbency, we investigate the empiricalrelevance of that competing paradigm. Weshow that (1) Incumbency matters in a purePresidential Party Model of HouseElections, (2) Presidential Party mattersin a pure Incumbency Model, (3) Once bothParty and Incumbency are accounted for,economic conditions exert a highlysignificant and temporally stable influenceon House elections, (4) Return Rates aremore affected by economic fluctuations thanare Vote Shares, and (5) Not allPresidential Party incumbents face the samedegree of electoral accountability foreconomic fluctuations.     

Advance or consolidation? The French national front and the 1995 elections

This article seeks to analyse the performance of the leader of the French National Front, Jean‐Marie Le Pen, and that of his Party, at the Presidential and Municipal elections of 1995. The elections took place after a period of apparent stagnation in the Front's political fortunes. Le Pen's relative success in the Presidential election was followed by the Front's capture of three significant towns at the municipal elections. However, its victories were in large part facilitated by the failure of the mainstream parties to rally against it. The elections ushered in a period of organisational and ideological change within the Party, which has, none the less, firmly established itself in the French political system.     

British Political Science and Comparative Politics

The internationalization of political science makes it especially difficult to identify a distinctive British approach to comparative politics. While there is certainly evidence of a distaste for cross-national comparison in Britain, this is no more marked than in other countries. In fact, on the evidence of a survey of major journals, Britons make relatively heavy use of the comparative method. British comparative research is less likely to use statistical indicators and methods than that found in other countries. Apart from this, the distinctions between comparative politics here and elsewhere are more matters of style and less matters of substance.     

The political advantage of a volatile market: the relationship between Presidential popularity and the ‘investor fear gauge’

• The Chicago Board Options Exchange's (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) is the premier established benchmark of near‐term market volatility. It is also referred to as the ‘investor fear gauge’ because it provides a consistent measure of market turmoil. We examine the VIX as it relates to Presidential popularity as indicated by the Gallup Organization's ongoing poll of US Presidential approval ratings. Our analysis indicates that the expected volatility of the market is highly related to Presidential approval. We then examine the strength and implications of this relationship in order to further establish the link between the economy and Presidential approval.

Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strategic campaigning, closeness, and voter mobilization in U.S. Presidential elections

The scholarly literature on voter mobilization is ambivalent regarding the effects of closeness on turnout. Economic analyses of turnout (i.e. the classic calculus of voting) contend that as elections become closer, voters perceive their participation as more valuable because there is a greater chance that they will cast the deciding vote. Other work argues that voters do not take closeness into account because the probability that their vote uniquely changes the outcome of an election is quite small even in close elections. Still, this second perspective maintains that closeness may increase turnout because elites distribute campaign resources to places where election results could be affected by mobilizing additional supporters. While the latter perspective is theoretically well-developed, empirical support for the notion that elite activity (rather than citizen perceptions) connects closeness and turnout is limited. Using improved measures of closeness and campaign activities, we test for citizen perception and elite mobilization effects on turnout in the context of U.S. Presidential elections. Results show that while closeness has no direct effect on turnout, elites indeed target campaign activities on close states and the asymmetric distribution of resources across states results in higher turnout in battleground states.     

Dollars on the Sidewalk: Should U.S. Presidential Candidates Advertise in Uncontested States?

Presidential candidates in the United States do not intentionally advertise in states without rigorous competition for electoral votes. However, in some areas of noncompetitive states, media markets overlap with battleground states, exposing these regions to political ads. These spillover advertisements allow us to examine the relationship between advertisements and individual campaign contributions, with data from the Wisconsin Advertising Project and the Federal Elections Commission. Using propensity‐score matching within uncontested states, we find that 2008 aggregate giving in zip codes exposed to political ads was approximately $6,100 (28.1% of mean contributions) more than in similar zip codes without advertisements.     

Introduction: The 2016 U.S. presidential election and its understated stability

The articles in this special section analyze the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. While the election has been referred to as historic, voting data instead emphasize its underlying stability. The articles in this section explore four broad themes in the raised in the election: issues, media, candidates, and pluralism. Together, these papers help examine the implications of stable voting patterns electing a candidate favoring disruption.     

Unilateral Politics

Phillip J. Cooper, By Order of the President: The Use and Abuse of Executive Direct Action
William G. Howell, Power without Persuasion: The Politics of Direct Presidential Action
Kenneth R. Mayer, With the Stroke of a Pen: Executive Orders and Presidential Power     

THE 1976 ELECTION AND THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SYSTEM

Abstract The elections, remembered as the first in which an incumbent President was defeated since 1932, show other characteristics inconsistent with usual interpretations. The Democratic Party's selection procedure managed to produce a moderate around whom the party could unite for the first time since 1964 while the Republicans experienced a damaging fight which the more extreme candidate almost won. Analysis of the results refutes many common conclusions. The popular vote was not as close as in other postwar elections; regional variations less pronounced and party more important in the campaign than had been supposed. The Republicans showed surprisingly strongly in the Presidential election, but did disastrously again in others. No satisfactory theory explains the discrepancy. Republicans still challenge strongly for the Presidency but consistently fail elsewhere.     

Implications of the ‘bread and peace’ model for the 2008 US presidential election

Presidential election outcomes are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real personal disposable income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities owing to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign conflicts. The US economy weakened at the beginning of 2008 and average per capita real income growth probably will be only around 0.75% at Election Day. Moreover cumulative US military fatalities in Iraq will reach 4,300 or more. Given those fundamental conditions, the Bread and Peace model predicts a Republican two-party vote share centered on 48.2%.     

Using state polls to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes

This paper uses pre-election polls to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes in the states and the Electoral College. The approach is notable in three ways. First, we employ state-level polls to predict voting outcomes in the states; second, we associate probabilities with alternative election outcomes, and third, we identify states most likely to be pivotal in the Electoral College. Using information available on the day before the election, we estimated that the probability of a Republican victory in the Electoral College in the 2004 election was 47.27%.     

Quality Control and Contracting Out of Legal Aid

This article reports on an evaluation of a pilot project in the tendering out of legal aid defence services for criminal matters in the Queensland District Court. Comparisons were made on quality and cost between the assignment of matters through competitive contracting and conventional assignment to private practitioners through a panel and scale fee system. Results show no significant differences in case outcomes and client perceptions of quality. In the interests of further cost reductions, any extension of tendering would need to focus on relatively simple, high-volume areas of prescribed crime, where there is less risk that competitive pricing will reduce the quality of service delivery. In addition, the evaluation indicated that greater savings might in future be obtained by enhanced utilisation of in-house (salaried) legal aid practitioners.     

Moderation and Dissent. The French Presidential Elections of 1995

The results of the Presidential elections of April-May 1995 confirm that there are currently two parallel trends in French politics. On the one hand the mainstream left and mainstream right are increasingly contesting the middle ground, and a majority of voters accept this. On the other hand, a substantial minority of the electorate is keen to protest against the inability of any of the major parties to remedy France's socio-economic ills, and therefore votes for the marginal parties, the parties of dissension and protest.     

Markets in a Democracy

The global financial – and now economic – crisis has demonstrated that markets, and particularly financial markets, are not self-correcting and that, if left unregulated, they will inevitably overreach themselves and lead to excess. Governments have a duty to regulate markets in the public interest but where (as in the case of recession) markets produce adverse outcomes, governments also have a duty to lean against market logic in order to minimise those outcomes. These lessons extend well beyond purely economic matters. Unregulated markets will inevitably produce social and environmental outcomes that reflect narrow and short-term individual and sectoral interests rather than those of society as a whole. The whole point of democracy is that it allows the less powerful majority to use the power and legitimacy of government to offset and counteract the economic power of a minority. If the market cannot be or is not challenged, democracy itself is weakened, loses its point and forfeits the confidence of the people it is meant to serve.     

Institutional Foundations of Legislative Speech

Participation in legislative debates is among the most visible activities of members of parliament (MPs), yet debates remain an understudied form of legislative behavior. This study introduces a comparative theory of legislative speech with two major implications. First, party rules for debates are endogenous to strategic considerations and will favor either party leadership control or backbencher MP exposure. Second, in some systems, backbenchers will receive less time on the floor as their ideological distance to the party leadership increases. This leads to speeches that do not reflect true party cohesion. Where party reputation matters less for reelection, leaders allow dissidents to express their views on the floor. We demonstrate the implications of our model for different political systems and present evidence using speech data from Germany and the United Kingdom.     

The costs of electoral fraud: establishing the link between electoral integrity,winning an election,and satisfaction with democracy

Previous research has shown that voters’ perception of electoral fairness has an impact on their attitudes and behaviors. However, less research has attempted to link objective measurements of electoral integrity on voters’ attitudes about the democratic process. Drawing on data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and the Quality of Elections Data, we investigate whether cross-national differences in electoral integrity have significant influences on citizens’ level of satisfaction with democracy. We hypothesize that higher levels of observed electoral fraud will have a negative impact on evaluations of the democratic process, and that this effect will be mediated by a respondent’s status as a winner or loser of an election. The article’s main finding is that high levels of electoral fraud are indeed linked to less satisfaction with democracy. However, we show that winning only matters in elections that are conducted in an impartial way. The moment elections start to display the telltale signs of manipulation and malpractice, winning and losing no longer have different effects on voter’s levels of satisfaction with democracy.     

If I recall correctly. An event history analysis of forgetting and recollecting past voting behavior

The mechanisms behind vote recall inaccuracy are not well understood. The literature has been unable to separate inaccuracy due to the nature of the voter (such as non-attitudes) from inaccuracy due to interfering events after casting the vote (such as a change in vote intention). This paper employs event history analysis to disentangle time-invariant and time-variant explanations of recall inaccuracy. Using Dutch panel data on 20,936 respondents in 42 waves between 2010 and 2012 (and additional data collected between 2006 and 2010), we explain the likelihood of misreporting the 2010 vote during the subsequent electoral cycle. The analyses show that although both explanations play a role, voters’ general level of volatility before casting the recalled vote matters less than changes in vote intention after the vote. We conclude that accurate recall is affected mainly by events rather than the nature of voters. Our findings imply that survey measures of voting behavior could be improved by offering cues on the elections of interest.