Regionalism and Domestic Politics: U.S.-Latin American Trade Policy in the Bush Era

With remarkable success, Latin Americans have sought to impose their free trade policy agenda on a very reluctant and internally fractious United States. They have an ally in President George W. Bush, whose senior appointments notably support hemispheric trade integration even as political pressures sometimes have yielded protectionist outcomes. Bush's trade negotiator, Robert Zoellick, pursues a doctrine of competitive liberalization while accepting some linkage between trade and social and political goals. In negotiating the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), the administration will have to balance many domestic pressures without alienating Latin America. Ultimately, FTAA ratification will signal a new Western Hemisphere economic-security alliance for the twenty-first century.     

Book Reviews

Book reviewed in this article: Feinberg, Richard E. Summitry in the Americas: A Progress Report. Lipsey, Richard G., and Patricio Meller, eds. Western Hemisphere Trade Integration: A Canadian-Latin American Dialogue. Gill, Anthony. Rendering unto Caesar: The Catholic Church and the State in Latin America. Joyce, Elizabeth, and Carlos Malamud, eds. Latin America and the Multinational Drug Trade. Korzeniewicz, Roberto Patricio, and William C. Smith, eds. Latin America in the World Economy. Smith, William C., and Roberto Patricio Korzeniewicz, eds. Politics, Social Change, and Economic Restructuring in Latin America. Tardanico, Richard, and Rafael Menjívar Larín, eds. Global Restructuring, Employment, and Social Inequality in Urban Latin America. Peeler, John A. Building Democracy in Latin America. Atkins, G. Pope, and Larman C. Wilson. The Dominican Republic and the United States: From Imperialism to Transnationalism. The United States and the Americas series, vol. 11. Hartlyn, Jonathan. The Struggle for Democratic Politics in the Dominican Republic. Falcoff, Mark. Panama's Canal: What Happens When the United States Gives a Small Country What It Wants.     

Clerics, Exiles, and Academics: Opposition to the Brazilian Military Dictatorship in the United States, 1969–1974

Virtually no one in the United States raised objections to the 1964 military takeover of the Brazilian civilian government. In the early 1970s, however, the Brazilian regime had become associated with torture and the arbitrary rule of law. By the end of that decade, compliance with human rights standards had developed into a yardstick for measuring U.S. foreign policy initiatives in Latin America. This paper argues that between 1969 and 1974, a small group of dedicated church activists, exiled Brazilians, and academics introduced the issue of human rights in Latin America into the U.S. national body politic. A network of concerned activists fashioned a systematic campaign to educate journalists, government officials, and the public about the abuses taking place under the generals' rule. Their activities helped isolate the military regime and laid the groundwork for a broader solidarity movement with Latin American popular struggles in the late 1970s and 1980s.     

朴槿惠政府东北亚和平合作构想的具体化和改进方向

2013年2月上台的朴槿惠政府提出了一项新的外交政策,即"东北亚和平合作构想",并在国内外进行广泛宣传和研究。"东北亚和平合作构想"为了解决包括区域外国家美国在内的,东北亚区域内各国间的"亚洲悖论",以非传统安全领域的"软安全"问题为中心,开展多边对话机制,并致力于最终形成一个东北亚安全共同体。但该构想尚处于理论起步阶段,对合作(安全)议题、区域范围(参与对象国)、行为主体、国际机制(制度化)、推进战略等问题没有具体界定,距离政策化也还有一段距离。其间朴槿惠总统(政府)向美国和中国介绍了"东北亚和平合作构想",但仅得到美国的消极理解和中国原则上的支持,并没有得到对该构想的实质和具体内容的理解和支持。"东北亚和平合作构想"应要进一步具体化、理论化,以此来得到东北亚各国一致认同且可实践的国际合作体制。     

U.S. Power and the Politics of Economic Governance in the Americas

This article examines the nature of the emerging regional economic regime in the Americas and argues that the dominant approach to economic governance is one defined by the assertion of U.S. power in the region and oriented toward distinctively U.S. interests and preferences. This has been clearly evident in the evolution of the Free Trade Area of the Americas but also, with the deceleration and fragmentation of that process during 2002 and 2003, in the growing prioritization of bilateralism. The leverage afforded by the bilateral negotiation of trade agreements acts to situate primary influence in shaping the rules that constitute the regional economic regime, and the primary functions associated with governing in this context, firmly within the agencies of the U.S. state. This essay therefore explores how the hegemonic power of the United States manifests itself in the substance of the hemispheric project and the shape of the economic regime associated with it.     

The European Union and Democracy in Latin America

The European Union has developed a significant range of democracy promotion initiatives in Latin America since the 1990s. The E.U.'s approach to democracy building has been seen to possess a number of strengths relative to U.S. policy, especially in connection with grassroots developmental imperatives. European policy itself, however, has a number of limitations. It has inadequately conceptualized the linkages between economic and political dimensions; it has insufficiently recognized the potential benefits of balancing bottom-up and top-down approaches. The E.U.'s influence over Latin American governments has remained more nebulous than that of the United States. European and U.S. policies in Latin America have both rivaled and complemented each other. Understanding this might inform both actors' democracy promotion efforts in the region.     

Latin America in a time of global financial turmoil∗

Following the financial turmoil in Asia and Russia, Latin America has suffered dramatic setbacks, including major economic slowdown, threats to democratization, and worsening social conditions. For the medium term, neither prosperity nor political stability are assured, says Abraham F. Lowenthal, founding president of the Pacific Council on International Policy at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles. Lowenthal identifies three positive shifts that have occurred in the region over the past few years: a convergence among economic policymakers on the main tenets of sound policy; an even more widespread embrace of constitutional democracy as an ideal; and a growing disposition on the part of Latin American nations toward pragmatic cooperation with each other and with the industrialized countries, including the United States.     

Radical Neglect? The “War on Terror” and Latin America

The rise of leftist governments in the Americas and the adoption of policy initiatives contrary to U.S. interests highlight a disconnect in interamerican relations, which cannot be understood simply as U.S. "neglect" of Latin America. In contrast to arguments that attribute the deteriorating relations to U.S. preoccupation with the Middle East, the article examines whether the "War on Terror" acted as a guiding paradigm for the George W. Bush administration in Latin America. Opposition to this "War on Terror" paradigm was evident following Colombia's 2008 air strike in Ecuador. Justified as a preemptive strike against a terrorist threat, Colombia's action met regional condemnation. The article argues that this Colombia-Latin America division reflects a larger geostrategic disconnect, whereby the "War on Terror" is challenged, causing the increasing marginalization of Washington and resistance to U.S. policy.     

Preparing for the best: involving North Korea in the new pacific community

The United States, Japan, and South Korea should be considering ways and means to involve North Korea in regional cooperation. In the economic sector, the United States and South Korea might support the Northeast Asia Economic Forum and the Tumen River Area Development Project. The United States might also encourage Japan or South Korea to lead discussions on the possibilities of an Association of Northeast Asian Provinces, a Northeast Asian Development Bank, a regional labor market, and forums on regional transportation and communication, shipping and navigation, and air traffic management. All should support North Korea’s joining the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. The need to monitor or retrieve the dumped Russian nuclear submarine reactors in North Korean waters is a serendipitous opportunity for broaching multilateral environmental cooperation.     

The East Asian financial meltdown

In view of China's economic growth and rising international status, Latin American and Caribbean countries will accord increasing priority to their relations with the Asian giant. China's permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council is also a factor to reckon with. Today, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela and Mexico have established strategic partnerships with China. While the vast distance between China and Latin America generates difficulties in transportation and mutual understanding, it also means that both parties have no serious conflicts of strategic and political interests. Their Third World orientations in diplomacy contribute to a 95% concurrence in their votes in the United Nations. While the Chinese leadership seeks to promote multipolarity to curb US unilateralism, it appreciates its limitations in Latin America. In addition, China and the Latin American and Caribbean countries value good relations with the US. In the foreseeable future, China will increase its investment in Latin America and more Sino-Latin American business joint ventures will be formed. These trends may well reduce trade frictions associated with China's economic expansion.     

The Atlantic economy after German unification: Cooperation or the rise of ‘Fortress Europe’

With the end of the cold war and the weakening of the security bond between Europe and the United States, economic relations assume increasing importance. As Europe's dominant economic power, Germany has a central role in the management of the trans‐Atlantic economy. This analysis of economic relations between Germany and the United States shows that whilst investment flows between the two economies suggest common interests and mutual dependence, the structure of German and American trade reveals a strong potential for conflict. Moreover, the experience of the 1980s suggests that economic ties between Germany and the United States are not sufficiently intense to guarantee unconditional cooperation in the management of the Atlantic economy. Divergence in macroeconomic policy has inevitably led to tensions over trade, exchange rates and interest rates. Unless this tendency is checked, the result will be the emergence of ‘Fortress Europe’ with a heightened potential for conflict with the United States.     

Latin America and the Dollar Bloc in the Twenty‐first Century: To Dollarize or Not?

The choice of exchange rate regime is a continuing challenge to Latin American policymakers, who currently face pressure to dollarize their economies. The constraints imposed by the "dollar bloc," the informal but powerful currency bloc that ties Latin America to the dominant currency, are central to that choice. Current weak economic performance has called the bloc's norms and principles into question and has made the exchange rate an open issue. Ecuador's full official dollarization is one possible strategy for countries with political stability but poor economic performance to gain access to needed dollar resources. Most of Latin America, however, will continue with variants of managed floating exchange rates, and the periodic foreign exchange crises will provide access to official dollar resources and facilitate renegotiation of the terms of outstanding debt.     

跨太平洋伙伴关系协议(TPP):研究前沿与架构

"跨太平洋伙伴关系协议"(TPP)在美国的积极推动下发展迅速,似乎将成为亚太地区新的竞争性区域合作机制。TPP以成员国全面零关税、知识产权保护、劳工和环保等议题为特点,提出建立高质量和高标准的自由贸易区,已吸引了包括美国在内的亚太九国参加协议谈判。在TPP建立过程中,美国企图重获亚太经济主导权的意图明显;日本虽积极参与,但自身困难重重;东盟在巩固现有基础上,并不排斥新机制出现。当前,美国主导TPP势头正盛,但其发展态势并不明朗,TPP谈判仍将面临美国国内政治因素和技术问题的双重障碍以及日本能否顺利加入等问题;当前的国际政治与经济局势,使中国面临新的挑战与机遇,宜通过调整经济结构,扩大内需,完善和巩固现有区域合作战略以积极应对TPP的发展。未来,中国与美日韩以及东盟等双边和多边经贸关系受TPP的实质影响将成为新一轮研究重点。     

Development Cooperation and Dependency: An Analysis of Brazilian-Spanish Cooperation in Latin America Between 2010 and 2018

Based on analysis of Brazilian-Spanish cooperation in Latin America, this article aims to contribute to the discussion on whether South–South Cooperation (SSC) represents an alternative model with specific and differentiated objectives, or if it largely reproduces the constraints and interests traditionally associated with the North–South model, but with new institutions and actors. We start by analysing the main criticisms levelled at cooperation in the literature, emphasising the identification, review and comparison of the mechanisms of domination and dependency that derive from the bilateral and multilateral practices of traditional development cooperation. We then construct a synthetic dependency index to measure the ability of Spain and Brazil – as representative cases of North–South Cooperation (NSC) and SSC with Latin America – to influence the foreign trade, investment and foreign policy decisions of aid recipients, and to empirically contrast the lower level of verticality that much of the available literature assumes about SSC schemes. The empirical analysis suggests significant differences between NSC and SSC in terms of their ability to reproduce dependency patterns and validate the discourse that tends to identify the latter as an alternative cooperation model.     

The United States in a world of rising regional powers: farewell Lilliput,hello Shanghai

Regional powers such as China, India, Russia, and to a lesser degree Brazil and South Africa, now occupy a significant role on the world stage. The United States, while still enjoying superpower status, has taken note. At the same time, the transnational nature of the challenges facing the world will require multilateral and bilateral co-operation perhaps unprecedented in modern history. How will the United States respond to these new requisites within the context of this changed world? While it is too early to assess the Obama administration's foreign policy substantively, it looks to be adopting an approach emphasising the building of consensus and multilateralism in its international engagement. Moreover, there is reason to expect that it will actively seek a more constructive set of relationships with regional powers. United States domestic political constraints may yet hamper Obama in this new approach, as might the type of response the new administration receives from old and new powers to its overtures. Whether the changes are more in tone than substance remains to be seen.     

构建“东北亚人类安全共同体”中的人类安全议题和国际机制探索

韩国朴槿惠总统自从2009年以来提倡"东北亚和平合作构想",并向美中等国家寻求支持。"东北亚和平合作构想"就是以韩国和朝鲜为主,包括美国、中国、日本、俄罗斯和蒙古等亚太国家和非国家行动主体,培养非传统安全或是软性安全热点问题合作。但该构想存在许多问题,如美国是否作为参与国加入,议题是否包含传统安全和制度化水平问题。如果美国加入,那么,东北亚区域固有的人类安全议题的选择混乱或将引起东北亚的认同性危机;议题的最终目标如果是传统安全,那么非传统安全或软性安全的重要性将被削弱;在制度化水平方面,习惯和惯例的制约性和实效性将成为问题。本文提出了作为东北亚区域内国家间的和平合作体,形成针对人类安全议题的"东北亚人类安全共同体"的方案,研究人类安全理论和国际机制并验证了其合理性。由此,确认了仅限于东北亚国家之间的人类安全范围内形成共同体的合理性。     

China and the competition for oil and gas in Asia

While its economic dynamism stimulates continued growth in Asia, China's increasing demand for energy is creating intense competition, particularly with Japan, over international sources of supply. Domestic fields have generally been disappointing, as have efforts to pipe gas from Central Asia and Russia to the east coast. Consequently, China is not only paying greater attention to potential petroleum resources in the East and South China Seas, but also considering the vulnerability of its sea-lanes to the Middle East and beyond. Its need to diversify has promoted closer relations with Central Asia, the Middle East, and the oil producing countries of Africa and Latin America, but the jury is out on whether China's concerns for secure energy supply will lead to international cooperation against terrorism or fuel the already heated competition for oil and gas. As China continues to assure its future energy security in Asia and many areas of the world, sustained bilateral and multilateral diplomacy to reconcile disputes and avoid conflict will become more important than ever.     

Book Reviews

Book reviewed in this article:
Campbell, Tim. The Quiet Revolution: Decentralization and the Rise of Political Participation in Latin American Cities.
Carpenter, Ted Galen. Bad Neighbor Policy: Washington's Futile War on Drugs in Latin America.
Levitsky, Steven. Transforming Labor-Based Parties in Latin America: Argentine Peronism in Comparative Perspective.
Middlebrook, Kevin J., and Eduardo Zepeda, eds. Confronting Development: Assessing Mexico's Economic and Social Policy Challenges.
McClintock, Cynthia, and Fabian Vallas. The United States and Peru: Cooperation at a Cost.     

依靠美国：日本解决领土纠纷问题之路——原贵美惠对东北亚领土纠纷问题的主要观点

自称日本＂海外＂学者原贵美惠近几年发表了许多有关东亚领土纠纷问题研究成果,引起学界关注。作者提出东亚地区领土纠纷问题出现,都与美国战后主导《旧金山对日媾和条约》有关,是美国设置于有关国家之间的＂楔子＂,便于美国实施未来亚太战略。关于东亚领土纠纷问题如何解决,作者提出采用奥兰群岛模式,在多国框架内解决等。笔者认为,原贵美惠的研究成果确实比较新异,但并未脱离日本学者局限,依靠美国解决日本与周边国家间领土纠纷,是日本朝野上下的共同选择。     

Prospects for cooperative security arrangements in the Asia-Pacific region

The concept of multilateral dialogue on Asia-Pacific security is attracting increasing support. This results from the improvement of relations among most of the major powers, the growing awareness of the problems that can best be addressed through cooperation, and the development of more realistic proposals for multilateral dialogue. The best approach to cooperative security is to utilize a combination of channels, including the ASEAN Regional Forum for discussion of region-wide and Southeast Asian issues, a parallel forum for dialogue on Northeast Asia, consideration of some security problems in APEC, and a recognized unofficial dialogue on regional strategic questions. In Spring 1994, he was a visiting professor of East Asian studies at The George Washington University and as of January 1995 he will be the new dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at GWU. He is the author ofA Fragile Relationship: The United States and China Since 1972 (Brookings, 1992).