一个新的国际关系归因理论 ——不确定性的维度及其认知挑战

四个内部维度（即能力、意图、利益和决心）以及一个外部维度（即外部环境）对于我们理解他人的行为是必不可少的。不确定性在其中的任一维度内均发挥着作用。作者构建了一种新的行为归因理论,认为不确定性的五个维度不仅能各自独立地给人们的认知造成不同困难,而且它们之间的互动也对人们的认知构成了更加难以应对的挑战。更重要的是,这种认知挑战在冲突情境与合作情境中的表现是有所区别的。缺乏对这些不同的、并且能够互相影响的挑战的认识已然对国际关系的研究造成了一定的困扰。把握好这五个维度,了解人们在理解它们时易于出现的各种偏差,对于理解国家在合作或冲突情境中的行为来说是至关重要的。文章的理论框架还指向一些特定的假说,而这些假说可以通过经验与实验方法加以验证。     

Overcoming Barriers to Mediation in Intake Calls to Services: Research‐Based Strategies for Mediators

In this article, I investigate intake calls to community mediation services in which disputing neighbors ask mediators to help them resolve their conflicts. These calls are the first point of contact between potential clients and mediators. To maintain their organization's funding, mediators must convert a sufficient number of these callers into clients of the service. Intake calls, however, are not treated as part of the mediation process proper, and mediators are not trained to handle them. I audio‐recorded and transcribed approximately two hundred calls to mediation services based in the United Kingdom and then analyzed them using conversation analysis. I identified several factors routinely present in these intake calls that seemed to prevent disputants from ultimately engaging in the mediation process; I characterize these factors as “barriers to mediation.” These barriers include callers' lack of knowledge about mediation as a service and mediators' often ineffective methods of explaining the process. In particular, callers rejected mediation services when the mediators explained that mediation is an impartial service. Some of the mediators, however, managed intake calls differently, describing it more effectively, expressing empathy or affiliation with callers, and thus were able to overcome many of the callers' most common concerns about the process. In this article, I also discuss this study's implications for understanding the institution of mediation and for training mediators.     

Rethinking Conflict: Perspectives from the Insight Approach

In this article, the authors present the “insight approach” to conflict as an analytical and methodological framework that addresses the dynamic interactions between conflicting parties. According to the insight approach, conflict is relational, dynamic, and adaptive, generated from the responsive interpretive frameworks that parties use to construct meaning. Conflict arises as a result of parties' experience of what insight theorists call “threat‐to‐cares,” which generates defend–attack patterns of interaction between them. The authors suggest that rethinking the nature of conflict so that it is seen as an interaction embedded in meaning making enables conflict interveners to help parties gain insight into, and articulate, the values that are being generated, advanced, threatened, and realigned within the complex interactions that define us as social beings. In doing so, parties develop abilities to generate new patterns and solutions that can limit and even eliminate the experiences of threat that generate conflict between them.     

Peer Consultation for Mediators: The Use of a Holding Environment to Support Mediator Reflection, Inquiry, and Self-Knowing

In order to help the parties in mediation address their interests, concerns, and responses to the conflict, the mediator must monitor and manage his or her own inner thoughts, emotions, and feelings throughout the process lest they negatively influence the outcomes of the mediation. Peer consultation offers one approach that can be used effectively to support the mediator's inquiry into practice dilemmas and invite self-knowing that benefits the mediator as well as the parties in the mediation. The effectiveness of a group consultation process, however, depends on the development of "a holding environment" that can provide a safe and confidential space within which such an inquiry can occur. The mediation process is improved when the mediator is able to sustain relational and emotional tension within herself and between the parties long enough for new understandings and actions to develop.     

An integrated crisis communication framework for strategic crisis communication with the media: A case study on a financial services provider

Abstract

In order for organisations to survive in an ever-changing milieu in the current business environment, sufficient crisis communication and management practices need to be in place. Despite this, organisational crises are often inefficiently managed, which could be ascribed to the lack of strategic management of crises (Kash & Darling 1998: 180). This article explores the lack of strategic crisis communication processes to ensure effective crisis communication with the media as stakeholder group. It is based on the premise that the media are one of the main influencers of public opinion (Pollard & Hotho 2006: 725), thereby necessitating the need for the accurate distribution of information. Furthermore, the study focuses specifically on the financial industry, which is arguably more sensitive and thus more prone to media reporting because financial services providers manage people's money (Squier 2009). A strategic crisis communication process with the media is therefore proposed, facilitated through an integrated crisis communication framework, proposing a combination of integrated communication (IC) literature, with emphasis on Grunig's theory of communication excellence, to build sustainable media relationships through two-way communication; and a crisis communication process that has proactive, reactive and post-evaluative crisis communication stages, thereby moving away from seeing crisis communication as a predominantly reactive function.     

《大国政治的悲剧》霸权逻辑的脆弱性——评约翰·米尔斯海默的“中国威胁论”

由于美国学者约翰·米尔斯海默的《大国政治的悲剧》这本书刚出版不久 ,所以目前国内对约翰·米尔斯海默的国际政治理论进行研究的并不多 ,从逻辑结构的角度进行研究的更为鲜见。作者与约翰·米尔斯海默教授的辩论内容主要包括 5个部分 :逻辑起点 :进攻性现实主义辨析 ;逻辑支点 :民主和平论辨析 ;逻辑基点 :人口和财富辨析 ;逻辑推论 :“一个国家要想生存下去就必然成为霸权国家”辨析 ;结论     

The Highs and Lows of Teaching IR Theory: Using Popular Films for Theoretical Critique

This article introduces an approach to IR that uses popular films to teach students how to critically analyze IR theory. By pairing IR traditions (like Realism) and the slogans that go with them (like "international anarchy is the permissive cause of war") with popular films (like Lord of the Flies ), this approach poses questions not about the truth or falsity of IR theories but about how IR theories appear to be true. This technique works because it draws upon visual analytical skills that students already possess and transfers them to analyses of IR theory and international politics. Overall, it challenges the positioning of IR theory as beyond culture and politics rather than as part and parcel of it, transforms what we think of as doing critical IR theory, and repositions students from passive recipients of IR truths into critically active and engaged analysts of IR theory's commonsense views of the world.     

Public opinion as a dependent variable: A framework for analysis

This paper outlines an approach to examining how public opinion is taken into consideration by political and governmental leaders and reviews recent studies that have followed this approach to evaluate the extent to which public opinion is subject to manipulation by political elites in diverse circumstances. The central idea of this approach is to treat public opinion as a “dependent variable” and to examine the role of the mass media in linking elite initiatives and the public. Instead of starting with polls that presume public opinion is an independent force, we start with elites and presume that they try to manipulate public opinion through the mass media and by other means. First, we look at why the emphasis on the independent nature of public opinion has become so prominent in political science. We argue here that viewing public opinion as a dependent variable is a more promising perspective. Next, we review and evaluate a number of studies that attempt to demonstrate the fruitfulness of our suggested approach. Each of the studies analyzed focuses on the initiatives of political elites and monitors the success of their efforts with targeted groups. These studies demonstrate the conditions that favor elite control as well as the opportunities for citizens to limit such control. In our conclusion, we outline a theory of the role of public opinion in modern mass democracies.     

族群战争的爆发：一个广义理论

基于两个分析性的创新：对社会事实秉持以机制为基础的理解路径和对动态交互影响的强调,作者提出了一个有关族群战争爆发的广义理论,并利用两种元机制——安全困境/螺旋模型和群体间–群体内互动——作为“元综合器”,将战争的影响因素与冲突行为的直接驱动力联系起来,对散布在现有文献中的众多因素和机制加以综合,形成了一个更具整合性且动态的族群战争理论。该理论不但整合了既有文献中已经识别的众多因素和机制,而且揭示了先前被隐藏或被忽视的因素、互动和机制,由此指明未来在这些方向的探究将是硕果累累。     

Participatory Communication,Theatre and Peace: Performance as a Tool for Change at the End of Conflict

This article presents insights on a participatory theatre initiative implemented in Kenya, with the aim of understanding the changes that were initiated towards the re-establishment of peace between communities. The project was carried out in the aftermath of the post-election violence that took place in the country between 2007 and 2008. Amani People’s Theatre organised a number of theatre-based activities adopting a participatory approach, which ensured the involvement of community members from different tribes. Participants used the plays to re-enact the events, experienced during the conflict and the issues that still affected their communities as a result of those events, and worked together on finding solutions. The article begins with a literature review on Theatre for Development and its progress towards a more participatory approach. This is followed by an introduction of the project and the context in which it took place. The study design and Theory of Change developed for the analysis are then presented, opening the path to a discussion of the findings generated through that framework. Lastly, final reflections bring to light a number of issues that must be considered when working with participatory theatre in peace interventions.     

Balancing Theory versus Fact, Stasis versus Change: A Look at Some Introductions to International Relations

Do dramatic events in international relations (IR) signal fundamental changes in political behavior? How do international relations texts address change, and what are the implications of textbook design for the way that we teach undergraduate introductions to the field? This article provides an initial inquiry into these questions by surveying a sample of five international relations texts. Rather than seek to pick the best book, the article examines the methods by which the textbook authors balance theory versus facts, as well as stasis versus change, in formulating introductory frameworks. This analysis is motivated by way of a general comparison of the sample texts with Organski's (1958) text, World Politics . Finally, the author discusses the strengths and weaknesses of different balancing strategies, and the implications of these strategies for teaching introductions to international relations.     

The Walk in the Woods: A Step‐by‐Step Method for Facilitating Interest‐Based Negotiation and Conflict Resolution

In this article, we describe a method we have used successfully in both academic and professional settings to rapidly introduce novice negotiators to the principles and practice of interest‐based negotiation: “the walk in the woods.” The walk incorporates much of the principles of interest‐based negotiation: fostering self‐awareness, cultivating curiosity, and understanding the importance of world view. The walk's effectiveness is illustrated in this article using the case of the merger of two large, complex health‐care organizations.     

Consensus Arbitration: A Negotiation‐Based Decision‐Making Process for Arbitrators

In reaching their decisions, arbitrators are currently expected to act like judges by listening fully to both sides and then withdrawing to write the final and complete decision. But because of some key differences between their roles, I argue, arbitrators and judges should exercise completely different styles of decision making. Unlike judges, who make decisive rulings in order to enforce the law, arbitrators are empowered and chosen by the parties themselves to handle specific disputes or govern continuing relationships. Instead of shifting a negotiated process into an authoritative one, arbitrators have the capacity to solicit input from parties as they craft the award. Under a new model of arbitration that I call “consensus arbitration,” arbitrators would facilitate negotiation between the parties but retain the power to break impasses with partial, incomplete decisions, behaving more like facilitators than judges.     

A New Regional Cold War in the Middle East and North Africa: Regional Security Complex Theory Revisited

Since the 2003 Iraq war, the Middle East and North Africa has entered into a New Regional Cold War, characterised by two competing logics: on the one hand, the politicisation of sectarianism opposing a Saudi-led Sunni bloc against an Iran-led Shia bloc and, on the other, an intra-Sunni cleavage around the mobilisation of political Islam, embodied by the Muslim Brotherhood and its supporters vs its opponents. Blending Buzan and Weaver’s regional security complex theory with Donnelly’s notion of ‘heterarchy’ and applying it to the cold wars the region has experienced, the similarities and differences between the Arab Cold War of the 1950s/60s and the New Regional Cold War reveal the increasing number of heterarchic features within the regional security complex: multiple and heterogeneous power centres, different power rankings, a more visible and relevant role of non-state and transnational actors, and the fragmentation of regional norms.     

Decoding Negotiation Systems in the Middle East and North Africa: A Framework for Analysis

Regional conflicts are becoming increasingly complex due to the involvement of an ever more numerous and interconnected set of actors. Previous research has focused on regional conflict systems and has generated theoretical approaches such as the regional security complex paradigm. However, when complex, multifaceted, seemingly contradictory webs of relationships are spun in a region, new tools are needed to analyze and evaluate them. Drawing on previous regional conflict models, we propose a negotiation-oriented framework of regional conflict analysis that explores the type and intensity of relationships between state and nonstate actors in a conflict system. We offer a seven-step scale of relationships (ranging from ally to active armed opponent) that represents a novel contribution to the methodological efforts to analyze relationships in conflict systems. This framework brings to light the relational imbalance of the MENA region and has the potential to contextualize for negotiators and mediators the complex system of conflicts within, and possibly outside, the region.     

Using the personal influence model to guide theory building for participatory communication in Africa

Abstract

This article argues that the personal influence model (PIM) be used strategically to resolve conflicts and social crises in Africa. It presents PIM as a complementary, analytic discourse to participatory communication, a development paradigm commonly used globally in a variety of social programs. That discourse, as a framework for theory building, is grounded in Africa's emerging and enduring realities: (a) the growing interest of the international community to assist Africa to meet the U.N. Millennium Development Goals, whose focus is to reduce extreme poverty by 2015; (b) the ephemeral nature of Africa's political and social stability that necessitates reducing fear, improving community security, nurturing public trust, and building inter-group relationships, all as preconditions for attaining social development, and for using a community-agency- contracts-partnerships approach to deliver development services; and (c) the palpable congruence of PIM with Africa's extensive social networks, which are typically used as communication tools for social development. Those realities guide four propositions that serve as a heuristic template for testing and refining the participatory approach, thereby guiding theory building in participatory communication in African communities. That template identifies an expansive three-concept research agenda – culture, community governance and rule of law, and economic freedom – that raises questions, defines concepts, measures key variables, and assesses outcomes.     

A Theory of Terrorist Leadership (and its Consequences for Leadership Targeting)

States often target terrorist leaders with the belief that the leader's death or capture will cause the terrorist organization to collapse. Yet the history of this strategy of “leadership targeting” provides a mixed record—for every example of effectiveness, there are similar examples of ineffectiveness. The central question of this article is: what makes a terrorist leader important? Specifically, what does a terrorist leader do that no one else can do (or do as well) for the organization? To answer this question, I develop a theory of terrorist leadership that argues that leaders might potentially perform two main functions: they can provide inspiration and/or operational direction (or not for both). I also theorize as to how and why the provision of these functions changes over time as the organization itself changes. The consequences for leadership targeting flow naturally from this theory—when leaders provide these functions to the organization, leadership targeting is most likely to be effective. Case studies of Algeria, Peru, and Japan offer insights into why some cases of leadership targeting were effective and why others were not. The conclusion extends this model with an analysis of al-Qaeda's prospects after the death of bin Laden.     

Poor communities as corporate stakeholders: A bottom-up research approach

Abstract

This article strives to provide an understanding of salient issues affecting the daily lives of participants from various developing communities in the country, and within the bigger picture, discuss some implications for organisations that affect or are affected by such communities. A key implication is that the process of constant connectivity and dialogue, including dissent, with communities as corporate stakeholders, may be more important in establishing trust and earning accountability, than the outcomes of well-planned corporate social responsibility campaigns. The study is based on qualitative research undertaken between 2006 and 2008 in 35 South African rural and township communities in Limpopo Province, North-West and Gauteng. A bottom-up research approach was proposed by the researchers, which, instead of evaluating the effects of corporate communication campaigns on communities, was to begin at a grassroots level with communities themselves, by exploring top-of-mind issues. From the findings it was apparent that a vicious cycle of extreme and endemic poverty was the focal area that occupied community members’ minds. This study provides a linkage between certain aspects of corporate social responsibility, normative stakeholder theory, strategic communication and stakeholder dialogue, in an attempt to provide organisations with guidelines to evaluate and respond to the challenges of poor communities, and offer a perspective on the way strategic communication with poor communities should take place.     

A new conceptual framework to strengthen internal corporate image: A stakeholder-inclusive perspective

The potential influence that internal stakeholders’ image of the organisation could have on external stakeholders’ image of the organisation, is strongly supported in the literature. This research project attempted to address the need for an approach that facilitates employee engagement, coupled with a leadership approach that allows collaboration, inclusion and cooperation within the organisation, to strengthen internal corporate image. This article reports on the results of the second phase of this research project, where a proposed stakeholder-inclusive conceptual framework for strengthening the internal corporate image, built from a stakeholder-inclusive perspective as depicted in the King III report on corporate governance, was explored in practice. A quantitative, self-administered web-based survey was conducted with the 2014 winners of the Deloitte Best Company to Work For (BCTWF) survey. The results not only indicated that these organisations’ practices resonate with the proposed stakeholder-inclusive framework, but also that the principles of the framework, namely stakeholder theory; integrated internal communication; peace arena; stakeholder engagement by means of the AA1000 Stakeholder Engagement Standard (AA1000SES) and responsible leadership and stewardship correlate with one another. The stakeholder-inclusive conceptual framework expands on the body of knowledge on corporate image and provides corporate communication professionals with a guide for strengthening their organisation’s internal corporate image, which could serve as starting point for strengthening the external corporate image and eventual corporate reputation.