Applying a forensic actuarial assessment (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide) to nonforensic patients

The actuarial Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) was developed for male offenders where it has shown excellent replicability in many new forensic samples using officially recorded outcomes. Clinicians also make decisions, however, about the risk of interpersonal violence posed by nonforensic psychiatric patients of both sexes. Could an actuarial risk assessment developed for male forensic populations be used for a broader clientele? We modified the VRAG to permit evaluation using data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study that included nonforensic male and female patients and primarily self-reported violence. The modified VRAG yielded a large effect size in the prediction of dichotomous postdischarge severe violence over 20 and 50 weeks. Accuracy of VRAG predictions was unrelated to sex. The results provide evidence about the robustness of comprehensive actuarial risk assessments and the generality of the personal factors that underlie violent behavior.     

A Classification Tree Approach to the Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools

Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.     

Risk and the Female Offender: An Analysis of Classification and Supervision Issues

Risk is a defining feature of punishment in the United States. This is evidenced by the profusion of actuarial risk assessment instruments, now entering their 4th generation. Although the literature on risk assessment specific to female offenders is growing, certain questions remain unresolved. In particular, it is still largely unknown how gender might influence classification and supervision for offenders under community supervision. This study reports findings from a survey of community corrections officers. The perceived level of risk, the decision to override a classification score, and the perceived importance of risk and need factors are discussed.     

Predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) during residential treatment

This prospective study examines the predictive validity of the Dutch version of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) by examining relationships between SAVRY scores and various types of disruptive behavior during residential treatment. The SAVRY, a risk assessment instrument, was coded for 66 male adolescents on the basis of file information and interviews. The adolescents were referred to Rentray, a juvenile correctional and treatment facility, by the Dutch juvenile courts because of severe behavioral problems or serious offenses. Institutional infractions were retrieved from incident registration files, which included acts of physical violence, verbal threat, verbal abuse, and violation of institutional rules. The interrater reliability of the SAVRY scores was good. The predictive validity of the SAVRY for physical violence against persons was excellent (Risk Total: AUC=.80, r =.33; Summery Risk Rating: AUC =.86, r =.48). The SAVRY also had good predictive validity for violence against objects, verbal threats and violations of rules, but not for verbal abuse. Implications for assessment and management of violent behavior among adolescents in residential treatment are discussed.     

Family violence risk assessment: A predictive cross-validation study of the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised (DVSI-R)

This research was a cross-validation study of the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised (DVSI-R), using a diverse, statewide sample of 3,569 family violence perpetrators in Connecticut, assessed in February and March of 2007. It analyzed re-arrest data collected during an 18-month period post assessment. Three issues were central, which have been ignored in previous research on family violence risk assessment: (1) analyzing five refined measures of behavioral recidivism, (2) determining whether perpetrator characteristics and types of family and household relationships (beyond just heterosexual intimate partners) moderate the empirical relations between the DVSI-R and the behavioral recidivism measures, and (3) determining whether structured clinical judgment about the imminent risk of future violence to the victim or to others corresponds with recidivism predicted by the DVSI-R total numeric risk scores. The empirical findings showed that the DVSI-R had significant predictive accuracy across all five measures of recidivism. With one exception, these relations did not vary by gender, age, or ethnicity; and again with one exception, no significant evidence was found that types of family or household relationships moderated those empirical relations. In short, the evidence suggested that the DVSI-R was a robust risk assessment instrument, having applicability across different types of perpetrators and different types of family and household relationships. Finally, the empirical findings showed that structured clinical judgment about imminent risk-to-victim and risk-to-others corresponded with the prediction of recidivism by the DVSI-R total numeric risk scores, but the effects of those scores were significantly stronger than the perceived risk-to-victim or the perceived risk-to-others.     

暴力危险量表中文版的信度

目的引入、修订具有评估暴力危险及危险变化的暴力危险量表(Violence Risk Scale,VRS),对修订后的暴力危险量表中文版(VRS-C)进行信度检验。方法通过标准的翻译程序形成VRS-C,3位评估者独立评估14个案例以检验评分者信度,以125例来自成都安康医院监管病区、四川华西法医学鉴定中心法医精神病学教研室及华西心理卫生中心的精神疾病患者为被试,对VRS-C的信度进行检验。结果初步修订的VRS-C具有较好的评分者信度(ICC=0.80)、同质性信度(克朗巴赫α系数=0.921)、分半信度(0.906)及题总相关性(0.246～0.849)。结论初步修订的VRS-C具有较好的信度。     

Alcohol and Violence Related Cognitive Risk Factors Associated with the Perpetration of Intimate Partner Violence

The primary aim of this study is to determine the association between alcohol, violence related cognitive risk factors, and impulsivity with the perpetration of partner violence among current drinkers. A probability sample (n = 1468) of White, Black, and Hispanic couples 18 years of age or older in the United States household population was interviewed in 1995 with a response rate of 85%. The risk factors of interest included the alcohol and violence related cognitions of approval of marital aggression, alcohol as an excuse for misbehavior, and aggressive expectations following alcohol consumption as well as impulsivity. In all, 15% (216/1468) of the respondents reported perpetration of domestic violence. In addition, 24% (7/29) of those who approved of marital violence, 11% (126/1163) of those who reported alcohol use as an excuse for misbehavior, 10% (128/1257) of those who reported aggressive expectations following alcohol consumption, and 14% (99/716) of those who reported impulsivity also reported perpetration of domestic violence. Bivariate analysis indicated that all of the cognitive risk factors were significantly more common in those who reported perpetration of intimate partner violence (IPV) (p < 0.05). However, multivariate analysis controlling for ethnicity, education, income, age, gender, and impulsivity indicated that those who reported strong or very strong expectations of aggressive behavior following alcohol consumption were 3.2 (95% CI = 1.3–7.9) times more likely to perpetrate IPV. Although all of the alcohol and violence related cognitive risk factors were associated with the perpetration of domestic violence, expectations of aggressive behavior following alcohol consumption appeared to be the strongest predictor of the perpetration of IPV among current drinkers. Therefore, alcohol expectancy may be an important factor to assess when attempting to identify and treat perpetrators of domestic violence who are also current drinkers.     

Using the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) to predict in-prison aggressive behavior in a Swiss offender population

The present study is a first-time evaluation of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide's (VRAG) predictive quality for institutional violence in a German-speaking country. The VRAG was assessed for 106 violent and sexual offenders based on their files. Violent infractions during imprisonment were evaluated using the files of the state penitentiary. Results show in accordance with previous studies only a moderate effect between VRAG scores and institutional misconduct. However, these findings were only significant for participants with a sex crime as index offense. In the study, the VRAG was unable to predict verbal and physical violence by violent offenders. The implications of these findings for institutional risk management and the future development of intramural detection of participants at risk in the German-speaking part of Europe are discussed.     

金融机构强制性自救债的法律问题

强制性自救债是问题银行所持有、在强制核销股权仍不能弥补其损失时被处置当局强制核销和转为股权的债务工具,其目的是实现银行自救,从而避免或减少使用纳税人的钱救助银行。为及时弥补银行损失,尽快使银行或者其关键部分能够继续经营,自救债应尽可能在银行尚未达到破产标准前启动。为了增加银行吸收损失的能力,自救债的范围应包括存款在内的债务工具,除非有法定的例外,如存款保险限额内的存款、担保债务等。自救债是强制核销尚未进入破产清算程序的银行股东的股权和债权人的债权,有侵犯私权之嫌疑,所以必须辅之以事前和事后的司法救济。自救债的有效实施,尚需证券法、公司法等的配套修改以及与域外法律的协调。     

Risk Factors of Violence against Women in Peru

Based on the results of previous investigations, this study seeks for individual, relationship and community characteristics among women living with their partner associated with intimate partner violence [IPV] victimization. The sample of 19,131 women was taken from the 2016 Peru Demographic and Health Survey. A binomial logistic regression model showed among the most significant risk factors: heavy drinking by the woman’s partner (OR = 8.655, p < .001), having witnessed parental domestic violence (OR = 1.496, p < .001) and having experienced physical punishment during childhood (OR = 1.306, p < .001). Other factors related to higher odds of IPV at the individual level include employment and low educational attainment. Relationship risk factors comprise, 25 to 29 years of relationship duration, living in cohabitation, previous unions and low socioeconomic status. At the community level, living in an urban residence increases the likelihood of abuse. These findings highlight the need to include these factors, in the IPV prevention strategies.     

An empirical assessment of the AIDS Risk Reduction Model (ARRM) employing ordered probit analyses

The AIDS Risk Reduction Model (ARRM) is a conceptual model designed to explain the influence of knowledge and attitudes about AIDS/HIV on risk-related behaviors. This article measures the influence of the primary concepts associated with the ARRM (labeling, commitment, and enactment) on high-risk adolescent's knowledge, attitudes, and self-reported behaviors. Data were collected from 393 adolescents incarcerated in juvenile detention facilities. Ordered probit and ordinary least squares (OLS) analyses were conducted to determine which of several independent variables have the most impact on acceptance of the ARRM. Results indicated that the ARRM is effective for understanding the factors that influence AIDS risk avoidance. Findings also indicate that previous life experiences should be formally integrated into the model. Moreover, specific forms of enactment are associated with different factors. Suggestions as to how the ARRM may prove useful for promoting behavioral change among high-risk adolescents are provided.     

Predicting the Risk of Intimate Partner Violence: The Chinese Risk Assessment Tool for Victims

The present study reports the development and validation of the Chinese Risk Assessment Tool for Victims (CRAT-V), an actuarial instrument for the prediction of intimate partner violence (IPV) victimization in a Chinese population. Data were collected from a representative sample of 2,708 Chinese women who were married or cohabiting in Hong Kong. All participants were interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their experience of IPV victimization and personal or family factors related to IPV. As measured by the Revised Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS 2), the base rates of preceding-year physical and sexual IPV victimization were 4.6 % and 3.6 %, respectively. Using a cross-validation procedure, the present study developed a 5-factor instrument with one half of the randomly split sample and validated the resulting tool with the other half. The CRAT-V had a sensitivity of 74.0 %, a specificity of 68.3 %, an overall accuracy of 68.7 %, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.75 when administered on the second half of sample. Overall, the CRAT-V may serve as a straightforward, systematic, and easy-to-administer instrument tailor-made for Chinese populations for the assessment of risk of IPV victimization against women.     

Assessing the Risk of Domestic Violence Reoffending: A Validation Study

Little research has been conducted to validate available instruments for assessing the risk of domestic violence reoffending, especially research using some form of prospective design. This study uses a prospective design to determine the reliability and validity of the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument (DVSI). The analysis is based on a sample of 1,465 male domestic violence offenders selected consecutively over a 9-month period. Data on reoffending were collected in a 6-month follow-up period from a subsample of the victims (N = 125) of these perpetrators and from official records for all perpetrators during an 18-month follow-up period. The empirical results suggest that the DVSI was administered reliably, and they provide significant evidence of the concurrent, discriminant, and predictive validity of this instrument. Implications for further research and utilization of the DVSI are discussed.     

《刑事诉讼法》修改中关于法律援助制度的若干问题

法律援助,是指由政府设立的法律援助机构组织及法律服务人员,为当事人提供法律服务并减免法律服务费,以保障其合法权益实现的一种法律制度,是一种世界各国普遍采用的司法保障方式。刑事法律援助制度作为我国刑事诉讼制度及律师制度的基本内容之一,其主要功能是保障弱势群体在刑事诉讼中的合法权利。我国现行法律体系已经确立了法律援助助制度，     

Gender and Injury Risk in Incidents of Assaultive Violence

This study investigates the situational characteristics that determine the presence and severity of injury in incidents of assaultive violence. The analysis uses merged data from the National Crime Victimization Survey and the Supplementary Homicide Reports for the years 1992-2008, in order to model the determinants of victim injury. The analysis includes all incidents of attempted or completed, non-sexual assault against victims 12?years of age or older. Injury severity is classified into one of four possible levels: no injury, minor injury, serious injury (requiring doctor, hospital, or emergency room care), and lethal injury. Special attention is given to the way in which gender modifies the influence of situational elements on the presence and degree of victim injury. While the results suggest that the situational determinants of injury are by and large uniform for male and female victims, important gender differences are observed in the salience of relational distance.     

关于编写警察干预家庭暴力实操规范几个问题的思考

无论是从警察干预家庭暴力的重要作用和家庭暴力本身的特点规律看,还是从警察干预家庭暴力的现实状况看,编写警察干预家庭暴力实际操作程序规范都十分必要;编写警察干预家庭暴力的实际操作程序规范要将借鉴国外成功经验与深入本地调研结合起来;警察干预家庭暴力的实际操作程序规范框架应该包括警察干预的基本立场原则和态度、基本原则、几个重要环节、出警记录、风险评估、询问技巧、多机构合作、警察干预家庭暴力的常见错误等内容。     

Types of Violence against Women and Factors Influencing Intimate Partner Violence in Togo (West Africa)

Violence against women has been recognized as an important social and human rights issue that affects all cultures and societies. Although this issue has been more frequently studied in high-income countries, such as the United States, the scholarly research of violence against women in Africa, especially West Africa, has been scarce. Using a representative sample, this study examined violence against women in Togo, particularly the types of violence that Togolese women endure, and factors that affect a Togolese woman’s chance of being victimized by her intimate partner. The findings indicated that Togolese women experienced different forms of violence. Also, some covariates at the individual level significantly affected a woman’s risk of experiencing intimate partner violence. Several policy recommendations have been made.

Examining the Science and Practice of Violence Risk Assessment with Female Adolescents

While the field of violence risk assessment among adult males has progressed rapidly, several questions remain with respect to the application of forensic risk assessment tools within other populations. In this article, we consider the empirical evidence for the assessment, prediction, and management of violence in adolescent girls. We discuss limitations of generalizing violence risk assessment findings from other populations to adolescent girls and point out areas where there is little or no empirical foundation. Critical issues that must be addressed in research prior to the adoption or rejection of such instruments are delineated. Finally, we provide practice guidelines for clinicians currently involved with adolescent females within risk assessment contexts.     

Infants Exposed to Intimate Partner Violence: Issues of Gender and Sex

A review of the literature finds that the development of infants exposed to intimate partner violence (IPV) may vary across sex as boys display more externalizing behavior, while girls show more internalizing behavior. Given this trend, gender- and sex-based analysis (GSBA) may play a critical role in understanding and improving the adjustment of these infants. Researchers are often encouraged to include gender and sex into their analysis, though they are rarely afforded appropriate direction in this process. The intention of this article is to provide guidance in GSBA for research on infant development in families affected by IPV. We present a discussion on GSBA, a review of the literature, explanations for differences in male and female infant development, a set of research priorities, and directions for future work. Findings suggest that a better understanding of the complexities in the adjustment of violence-exposed infants through GSBA may promote childhood development.