反恐战争与地区形势

美国在阿富汗发动反恐战争后,南亚和中亚地区形势发生重大变化,地缘政治格局出现重组,大国关系重新调整,呈现矛盾与合作并存的局面。美国对阿富汗反恐战争的初步胜利使南亚和中亚地区安全和稳定的环境得到改善,但阿富汗稳定和重建任重道远,地区总体形势可能将     

Transnational Terrorism in the Post–Cold War Era

The article uncovers evidence that the end of the Cold War has provideda dividend in terms of reduced transnational terrorism. Significant short-run and long-run effects are quantified with time-series analysis to be concentrated in reduced bombings and hostage-taking incidents. Presumably, this dividend is the result of less state-sponsorship of terrorism by the Commonwealth of Independent States and other states, as well as the result of measures taken by industrial states to thwart terrorist attacks. A dividend does not appear untilthe last three quarters of 1994, at which time moves were well under way to integrate Eastern Europe with the West. Moreover, prior to this period, significant efforts had been made among Western nations to augment cooperative efforts to curb terrorism and to bring terrorists to justice. Using data for 1970 through mid-1996, we also examine trends and cycles in terrorist modes ofattack. There is virtually no evidence of an upward trend in transnational terrorism, contrary to media characterizations. All types of terrorist incidents display cycles whose duration lengthens with logistical complexity. Any change in these cycles in the post–Cold War era is concentrated in the high-frequency or short-lived cycles.     

美国穆斯林对恐怖主义与反恐战争的态度

5月22日，美国皮尤调查中心（Pew Research Center）发表一份题为《美国穆斯林》的调查报告。该报告对美国境内1050位穆斯林进行55000多次访谈后，结果显示：目前全美穆斯林人口主要来自阿拉伯地区的移民，至于土生土长的穆斯林，则以非裔居多；多数人对美国认同度较高，支持极端伊斯兰主义比例比欧洲国家低，但多数不认同美国所发动的反恐战争。     

Defeating the Sixth Column: Intelligence and Strategy in the War on Islamist Terrorism

For the first time since the late 1940s, Washington is attempting a comprehensive analysis of the role and performance of the American intelligence system. In rethinking intelligence, it needs to address that the sixth column—Islamist terrorists residing in states that knowingly or unknowingly give them sanctuary—is the weak underbelly in the war on terror. To defeat this sixth column, important personnel, doctrinal, and cultural issues need to be addressed. The experience of other countries that have had success in fighting terrorism suggests that the United States must focus on offensive counterintelligence, penetrating terrorist groups, and creating mistrust among them.     

The War on Terrorism and the Decline of Terrorist Group Formation: A Research Note

Over the course of the twentieth century, terrorist organizations possessing different political and religious outlooks have been formed in different regions of the world. This note reports that the peak decades for the formation of terrorist groups were the 1970s and 1980s. Since that period, the pace of terrorist group formation has slowed substantially. Further, during the 1970s and 1980s the political goals of terrorist bands consisted of a heterogeneous mix of nationalist, left-wing revolutionary, right-wing radical and religious agendas. During the 1990s new terrorist groups have been largely reflective of religious concerns, Islamist ones in particular.     

美国"反恐金融战"对国际金融制度的影响

金融领域的反恐怖主义是美国国际反恐怖战略的重要一环。由于美国“反恐金融战”在国内外两条战线上同时展开 ,对各国金融行政当局和金融机构都带来了巨大的压力。各主要国家在反恐怖主义和反洗钱方面有共同利益 ,故多顺势而为 ,积极强化金融监管系统。国际金融领域正发生着近年来最重要的制度变革。     

AFRICOM's Relationship to Oil, Terrorism and China

Why a combatant command for Africa? I argue that AFRICOM was formed to implement the U.S. national security strategy that seeks to strengthen states and eliminate ungoverned space, as well as establish relationships with African states that offer a means to greater state stability and foster economic development. In so doing, it counters global jihadist by denying them haven among weak governments or in ungoverned areas. It protects U.S. interests in resources by helping governments become more stable. And it competes with the Chinese approach that could worsen the status quo of ineffective states and ungoverned space. Indeed, the U.S. approach of increasing state effectiveness makes African countries less susceptible to the problems that may arise from the Chinese approach and so serves China's interests in access to natural resources.     

Willingness and Opportunity: A Study of Domestic Terrorism in Post-Cold War South Asia

Domestic terrorism, as a form of intrastate violence, has varied widely in South Asia along with the post-Cold War period of global economic integration and political openness. How are these two phenomena—economic integration and emergence of democracies—related to domestic terrorism in South Asia? I argue that resorting to terrorism is a rational choice when individuals'/groups' cost of heterogeneity—deprivation from public goods due to geographical and ideological distance—increases; opportunity is provided by democratization and integration into the global economy. The testable hypotheses derived from the theory are empirically tested on a dataset of five South Asian countries for the time period between 1990 and 2007. The results show that both minority discrimination and presence of unconsolidated democratic institutions increase terrorism in the highly heterogeneous South Asian countries. International trade in the presence of minority discrimination increases homegrown terrorism, but foreign direct investment neither increases nor decreases such incidents.     

中国与冷战后国际体系

冷战后国际体系基本是美国主导的一超独霸体系,同时也呈现欧盟、日本、俄罗斯等多强与之并存的格局。中国自改革开放以来综合国力得到很大提高,受到世人关注。面对冷战后国际体系的调整,中国如何定位,在外交理念和外交政策上应做出哪些调整与选择,这是本文要探讨的问题。     

冷战后中国与东盟关系述评

仲国与东盟关系自上世纪90年代初以来,取得了从“全面友好合作”到“睦邻互信伙伴”再到“面向和平与繁荣的战略伙伴”这样一次又一次的飞跃发展,整个发展过程呈现了双边模式促多边合作、多边模式带动双边合作、区域合作和次区域合作并行的特点。中国与东南亚关系的进一步发展,符合双方共同利益和愿望,是历史的必然选择,但“中国威胁论”、南海主权争端、台湾问题和华人华侨问题等,仍将是长期影响双方关系发展的重大障碍。     

Terrorism and the media

The linguistic turn in political science is an important step toward more sophisticated political knowledge. Greater awareness of political language implies attention to words such as reason. Reason is central to modern political discourse because of its historical and cultural importance and because of the contemporary dominance of the rational choice paradigm. Reason the concept therefore justifies closer scrutiny of reason the word. The meaning of reason is constructed as a variable. Standing by itself, reason seems relatively shapeless and empty; dictionary definitions are circular and tautological, although some subtle nuances derive from the network of reason's root words. Most of the variance in the meaning of reason is determined by other words that surround it, with a significant portion of reason's meaning being defined by its context. Anterior meaning shifters, nominal referents, spatiotemporal modifiers, and textual narrative all surround reason and fix it in a large lattice. The meaning of reason in use varies continuously. From this perspective, it becomes clear how reason functions as an important rhetorical trope in political discourse. Its plasticity and flexibility help reason stimulate and evoke variable mental images and responses in different settings and situations, all the more important because these go largely unnoticed. The example of reason of state shows reason's rhetorical power and privilege, its normative dimension, its persuasiveness, and its consequences. Seen in this light, a weak version of reason of state is preferable to a strong one. Pluralistic reason opens new paths for democratic thought and political action.     

China, Nuclear Security and Terrorism: Implications for the United States

This article outlines Chinese strategic nuclear forces and the Chinese philosophical approach to nuclear security. It then focuses on the domestic conditions in China which could precipitate vulnerabilities to its nuclear forces. From information about internal security conditions in China, specific internal threats to Chinese nuclear security will be derived. Based on these threats, several outsider and insider scenarios will be outlined involving a variety of terrorist or terrorist related behaviors. These notional scenarios will include everything from overrun or attack, to diversion, to cyber terrorism, to sabotage. The article will then cover what these scenarios and the possible Chinese reaction to them may mean for the security, military and diplomatic strategies of the United States.     

对恐怖主义问题的几点思考

"9·11"事件发生后,国际社会更为担心的是恐怖分子是否获得了诸如核生化等大规模杀伤性武器.已有种种迹象显示,可造成更为恐怖的生化袭击有可能发生,值得高度警惕与戒备.在反恐怖斗争领域里,民族、宗教问题一直是困扰人们正确认识形势的两大因素,如何从根本上把民族、宗教问题与恐怖活动区分开来,应当对此有所反思.随着国际反恐怖斗争的不断深入,在联合国框架下建立全球性国际反恐怖合作机制已是势在必行.     

Thoughts on Terrorism

The earthshaking terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11,2001 have once again brought terrorism into focus of the international relations. More and more evidences show that threats of terrorism to the world peace and development as well as the international communlty are on theincrease. Worse stin, it has become more possible that the ter     

穆塞韦尼论恐怖主义与反恐

什么是恐怖主义?它与为自由而战有什么不同?在我回答这两个问题之前，我应该指出，有时需要有毛泽东所称的“正义”战争。正义战争是为了人民最广泛阶层的正当利益而战的。打仗作为最后凭借的手段是正当的。在你没有用尽其他和……     

国际恐怖主义问题与反恐怖斗争合作

进入新世纪,恐怖主义乌云仍浓重地笼罩着全球。中亚、南亚、非洲不断发生的大规模人质绑架事件,世界各地频繁的爆炸、暗杀,给国际社会、无辜民众带来极大的危害。恐怖主义这个毒瘤仍在蔓延、膨胀,对世界和平与发展构成重大威胁。 面对日益猖獗的恐怖活动,国际社会一直在努力寻找打击恐怖主义的有效途径,特别     

Terrorism and Profiling

A key problem for counterterrorism is how large numbers of individuals can be screened most efficiently to discover terrorists. This question arises at security checkpoints of all kinds, from roadblocks to airline security counters. Some argue that certain categories of individuals, for instance, young Muslim men in the airline context, should be screened more heavily than others. Others deride this as racial profiling, and argue that any such scheme would be easily evaded. I examine a model of searching for terrorists among a population divided into categories that vary in their potential reliability or ease of recruitment as agents of terrorist attacks. The equilibria in the model feature profiling, in that different categories are searched with different intensities. Practical difficulties in implementing a rational profiling scheme are discussed.