Risk Terrain Modeling: Brokering Criminological Theory and GIS Methods for Crime Forecasting

The research presented here has two key objectives. The first is to apply risk terrain modeling (RTM) to forecast the crime of shootings. The risk terrain maps that were produced from RTM use a range of contextual information relevant to the opportunity structure of shootings to estimate risks of future shootings as they are distributed throughout a geography. The second objective was to test the predictive power of the risk terrain maps over two six‐month time periods, and to compare them against the predictive ability of retrospective hot spot maps. Results suggest that risk terrains provide a statistically significant forecast of future shootings across a range of cut points and are substantially more accurate than retrospective hot spot mapping. In addition, risk terrain maps produce information that can be operationalized by police administrators easily and efficiently, such as for directing police patrols to coalesced high‐risk areas.     

Applying Crime Prediction Techniques to Japan: A Comparison Between Risk Terrain Modeling and Other Methods

In recent years, the field of crime prediction has drawn increasing attention in Japan. However, predicting crime in Japan is especially challenging because the crime rate is considerably lower than that of other developed countries, making the development of a statistical model for crime prediction quite difficult. Risk terrain modeling (RTM) may be the most suitable method, as it depends mainly on the environmental factors associated with crime and does not require past crime data. In this study, we applied RTM to cases of theft from vehicles in Fukuoka, Japan, in 2014 and evaluated the predictive performance (hit rate and predictive accuracy index) in comparison to other crime prediction techniques, including KDE, ProMap, and SEPP, which use past crime occurrences to predict future crime. RTM was approximately twice as effective as the other techniques. Based on the results, we discuss the merits of and drawbacks to using RTM in Japan.     

Predicting Property Crime Risk: an Application of Risk Terrain Modeling in Vancouver,Canada

Research on the spatial dimension of crime has developed significantly over the past few decades. An important aspect of this research is the visualization of this dimension and its underlying risk across space. However, most methods of such visualization, and subsequent analyses, only consider crime data or, perhaps, a population at risk in a crime rate. Risk terrain modeling (RTM) provides an alternative to such methods and can incorporate the entire environmental backcloth, data permitting. To date, the RTM literature has dominantly focused on violent crime in the United States. In this paper, we apply RTM to property crime victimization (residential burglary) in Vancouver, Canada. We are able to show that not only does RTM have applicability in a Canadian context but provides insight into nonviolent victimization.     

Mapping the Risk Terrain for Crime Using Machine Learning

Journal of Quantitative Criminology - We illustrate how a machine learning algorithm, Random Forests, can provide accurate long-term predictions of crime at micro places relative to other popular...     

Enhancing Data-Driven Law Enforcement Efforts: Exploring how Risk Terrain Modeling and Conjunctive Analysis Fit in a Crime and Traffic Safety Framework

Law enforcement’s examination of vehicle crashes is often nested in the Data-Driven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety (DDACTS) framework which highlights the importance of hot spot analysis. To assist law enforcement efforts, this study explores how two additional spatial techniques, namely risk terrain modeling (RTM) and conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC), could be incorporated within the DDACTS framework. RTM was utilized to identify how the built, physical environment contributed to the risk of traffic incidents. RTM identified 6 risk factors related to the occurrence of vehicle crashes, and high-risk places were compared to hot spots on predictive accuracy. CACC was used to explore configurations likely to result in traffic incidents for the priority places. Our findings support the Theory of Risky Places and fit within a vulnerability-exposure framework, providing law enforcement with guidance for identifying places where vehicle crashes are likely to occur in the future. In addition to providing insight for law enforcement, we discuss how law enforcement can develop working partnerships with stakeholders capable of preventing and/or reducing traffic incidents, which is in line with the general DDACTS framework.

     

Risk Clusters,Hotspots, and Spatial Intelligence: Risk Terrain Modeling as an Algorithm for Police Resource Allocation Strategies

The study reported here follows the suggestion by Caplan et al. (Justice Q, 2010) that risk terrain modeling (RTM) be developed by doing more work to elaborate, operationalize, and test variables that would provide added value to its application in police operations. Building on the ideas presented by Caplan et al., we address three important issues related to RTM that sets it apart from current approaches to spatial crime analysis. First, we address the selection criteria used in determining which risk layers to include in risk terrain models. Second, we compare the “best model” risk terrain derived from our analysis to the traditional hotspot density mapping technique by considering both the statistical power and overall usefulness of each approach. Third, we test for “risk clusters” in risk terrain maps to determine how they can be used to target police resources in a way that improves upon the current practice of using density maps of past crime in determining future locations of crime occurrence. This paper concludes with an in depth exploration of how one might develop strategies for incorporating risk terrains into police decision-making. RTM can be developed to the point where it may be more readily adopted by police crime analysts and enable police to be more effectively proactive and identify areas with the greatest probability of becoming locations for crime in the future. The targeting of police interventions that emerges would be based on a sound understanding of geographic attributes and qualities of space that connect to crime outcomes and would not be the result of identifying individuals from specific groups or characteristics of people as likely candidates for crime, a tactic that has led police agencies to be accused of profiling. In addition, place-based interventions may offer a more efficient method of impacting crime than efforts focused on individuals.     

Causes and Prevention of Intellectual Property Crime

Intellectual property refers to the ownership and rights to use creative work that result from intellectual activity. Although there are four recognized categories of intellectual property (patents, trademarks, trade secrets, and copyright), copyright violations have garnered much attention of late because of the copying of software, movies, videogames, and music that deny publishers and authors' economic returns on their property. In order to understand this growing form of theft and the costs and consequences of such actions, the current research has three foci. First, the types of activities that fall under the rubric of intellectual property are identified and defined. Second, the causes or theoretical arguments developed to understand intellectual property theft are identified and discussed. Third, prevention techniques are examined in order to understand what is currently being done to control and prevent the misuse and theft of intellectual property. A research agenda outlining data collection efforts is also presented.     

Private Military Contractors,Crime, and the Terrain of Unaccountability

Criminological research has traditionally attempted to explain the etiological factors of crime and then suggest appropriate controls. More often than not, the foci of this kind of work have remained on “street crime.” Since the 1990s, however, some scholars have turned their attention to the causal factors of corporate crime, state crime, crimes of globalization, supranational crimes, and their various permutations and interconnections. Clearly missing from this literature is the growing phenomenon of private military contractors (PMCs) and the crimogenic culture of and atmosphere within which they operate. Specifically, while the use of PMCs is rapidly growing, the increasing propensity for PMC's crimogenic culture and the unregulated nature of what has become a global industry is rarely studied by social scientists. Further, few criminologists have examined this area of research by applying criminological theory to explain the growth and emergence of PMCs. Our goal is to help fill this gap. Through the process of theory building and refinement we identify factors that facilitate the criminogenic environment within which PMCs operate. Additionally, without attempting to expand explanatory and causal mechanisms, policies aimed at reducing PMC criminality and social justice for their victims cannot be developed. As such, we draw from theoretical developments in state and state‐corporate crime, social disorganization, and anomie literature to shed light on key factors associated with PMCs, namely, the crimogenic atmosphere within which they operate.     

恐怖活动犯罪的理解与认定

恐怖活动古已有之,恐怖活动犯罪严重威胁国家安全、公共安全,严重扰乱社会秩序,严重侵犯公民人身、财产权利。2001年震惊世界的美国9．11事件后,国际社会加强了对恐怖主义犯罪的打击与防范,联合国安理会于2001年9月28日通过了针对恐怖主义犯罪的1373号决议,呼吁各国在防止和制止恐怖主义行为方面进行紧急合作,并对联合国各成员国的刑事立法提出要求。     

"严打"刑事政策的掌握与运用

自１９８３年以来 ,我们党和国家对于严重危害社会治安的犯罪和严重破坏经济的犯罪坚持采取了从重从快严厉惩处的方针。十多年来 ,随着我国社会主义法治建设的迅速发展 ,“严打”方针的基本内容亦不断得到丰富和完善 ;现已形成了一个较为完整的刑事政策体系。准确掌握与正确运用“严打”刑事政策 ,对于我们持续、规范、有效地开展“严打”斗争 ,无疑具有重要意义。从中央的部署和司法机关长期开展“严打”斗争的实践经验看 ,准确掌握与正确运用“严打”刑事政策 ,主要应当把握以下几个方面 :一、必须明确打击重点 ,严格掌握“严打”范围。在…     

网络犯罪及犯罪地的确定

网络犯罪是信息时代特有的社会现象,它与传统的犯罪形式有明显的区别,并且随着计算机和网络的普及呈加剧的趋势。为了打击网络犯罪,我们首先要确定网络犯罪地点,包括行为地、结果地,这是正确行使司法管辖权的前提。由于网络空间的特殊性,网络犯罪给犯罪地理论和法律制度带来挑战。     

计算机网络犯罪及其防范

随着计算机与网络技术的发展,计算机网络犯罪愈来愈猖獗,目前全球平均每20秒就发生一次Intenlet计算机入侵事件。在Intermet上的网络防火墙,超过1／3被突破,一些银行、企业、机构都未能幸免。作为一种新型的犯罪,其社会危害性极大,并有愈演愈烈之势。我们必须了解计算机网络犯罪的特点、原因及采取相应的对策。     

侦办内幕交易犯罪案件的思考

中国证券市场建立以来,内幕交易行为在市场中非常普遍,甚至可以说,我国的内幕交易和股价操纵已达到泛滥程度。但由于在内幕交易案件侦查中存在着内幕交易数额计算法律规定不清、内幕信息知情人员建议他人交易相关证券是否构成犯罪等法律适用难点以及交易操作人认定的困难,除了侦查人员需要在办案过程中理清思路,合理安排侦查进度、综合运用侦查措施、有效组合获取证据等,更需要加强证券部门与经济犯罪侦查部门的情报交流。     

Crime scene staging and its detection

Crime scene staging is a recognized phenomenon within the criminal justice field. This article defines the occurrence for staging, identifies the motives for staging, and identifies the act that precipitated the staging. It reports the results of an exploratory survey of 20 well-versed and highly trained law enforcement officers' experience with staging in fatal and nonfatal incidents, and it reports the most commonly observed forms of crime scene staging. Investigative strategies and indicators of staging are also presented.     

坚定不移地走犯罪预防社会化、专业化之路

犯罪与惩治犯罪的斗争历史充分说明,对犯罪不能简单停留在打击层面上,最终目的是要治本。在新的历史时期,政府如果仍旧按照传统的办法,通过大量增加人员编制来加强管理,显然已经不合时宜,社会要健康发展下去,党委政府必须义不容辞地承担起事关社会安全、社会公平、社会救济的社会事业,按照“小政府,大社会”的原则,运用社会力量有针对性地加强犯罪预防工作。     

Risky Reports: Crime Risk Assessments and Spatial Governance

The identification, assessment, and minimization of crime risk has permeated practices that extend well beyond traditional criminal justice responses. This article analyses crime risk assessment reports and the guidelines and processes through which they are produced for large-scale commercial and residential developments and redevelopments, taking New South Wales Australia as a case study. The article suggests that although the crime risk assessment guidelines and reports deploy a language of risk, there is a messiness and inconsistency to the crime risk assessment process that raises significant questions its normative utility. The article concludes that the language and promise of risk minimisation can silence or ‘black box’ what appear to be coherent regulatory process making them little more than symbolic gestures.     

论新生代农民工自救犯罪的特点及原因

所谓新生代农民工自救犯罪,是指新生代农民工在面临对自身生存发展构成的威胁或合法权益遭受侵害时,依靠自己的力量,以非法手段和方式来维护自身权益的犯罪行为,具有犯罪手段暴力化、犯罪主体低龄化、犯罪形式团伙化、犯罪对象确定化、犯罪动机简单化、犯罪事先有预谋等特点。公力救济难到位和社会保障水平低是新生代农民工自救犯罪的外在原因;用人单位违规失信是新生代农民工自救犯罪的直接原因;行为人的人格扭曲是新生代农民工自救犯罪的内在起因。