Risk Terrain Modeling: Brokering Criminological Theory and GIS Methods for Crime Forecasting

The research presented here has two key objectives. The first is to apply risk terrain modeling (RTM) to forecast the crime of shootings. The risk terrain maps that were produced from RTM use a range of contextual information relevant to the opportunity structure of shootings to estimate risks of future shootings as they are distributed throughout a geography. The second objective was to test the predictive power of the risk terrain maps over two six‐month time periods, and to compare them against the predictive ability of retrospective hot spot maps. Results suggest that risk terrains provide a statistically significant forecast of future shootings across a range of cut points and are substantially more accurate than retrospective hot spot mapping. In addition, risk terrain maps produce information that can be operationalized by police administrators easily and efficiently, such as for directing police patrols to coalesced high‐risk areas.     

Predicting Property Crime Risk: an Application of Risk Terrain Modeling in Vancouver,Canada

Research on the spatial dimension of crime has developed significantly over the past few decades. An important aspect of this research is the visualization of this dimension and its underlying risk across space. However, most methods of such visualization, and subsequent analyses, only consider crime data or, perhaps, a population at risk in a crime rate. Risk terrain modeling (RTM) provides an alternative to such methods and can incorporate the entire environmental backcloth, data permitting. To date, the RTM literature has dominantly focused on violent crime in the United States. In this paper, we apply RTM to property crime victimization (residential burglary) in Vancouver, Canada. We are able to show that not only does RTM have applicability in a Canadian context but provides insight into nonviolent victimization.     

Enhancing Data-Driven Law Enforcement Efforts: Exploring how Risk Terrain Modeling and Conjunctive Analysis Fit in a Crime and Traffic Safety Framework

Law enforcement’s examination of vehicle crashes is often nested in the Data-Driven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety (DDACTS) framework which highlights the importance of hot spot analysis. To assist law enforcement efforts, this study explores how two additional spatial techniques, namely risk terrain modeling (RTM) and conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC), could be incorporated within the DDACTS framework. RTM was utilized to identify how the built, physical environment contributed to the risk of traffic incidents. RTM identified 6 risk factors related to the occurrence of vehicle crashes, and high-risk places were compared to hot spots on predictive accuracy. CACC was used to explore configurations likely to result in traffic incidents for the priority places. Our findings support the Theory of Risky Places and fit within a vulnerability-exposure framework, providing law enforcement with guidance for identifying places where vehicle crashes are likely to occur in the future. In addition to providing insight for law enforcement, we discuss how law enforcement can develop working partnerships with stakeholders capable of preventing and/or reducing traffic incidents, which is in line with the general DDACTS framework.

     

Discrepancies Between Crime Reports and Crime Surveys:

The absence of strong zero-order associations between victimization and official crime rates for cities has been a puzzle for social scientists since the data for making such comparisons became available. Using the 26 large central cities for which data on both types of rates are available, we analyze the extent to which discrepancies between the rates can be accounted for by aspects of urban social structure that differ from city to city. After introducing such structural controls, we find a much closer correspondence between the two types of rates for motor vehicle theft, robbery, burglary, and forcible rape, but not for aggravated assault and larceny-theft. These results are explained by citing evidence that we have identified some critical "suppressor" variables for the former crimes (i.e., variables that are positively associated with one type of rate and negatively associated with the other). By contrast, the heterogeneous nature of the phenomena subsumed by the latter two crime categories may preclude identification of a similarly parsimonious list of suppressors. One implication of these conclusions is that cross-sectional analyses of intercity variation in official rates may produce results that are in reasonably close correspondence with what would be obtained with victimization rates for certain index crimes, provided that sufficient structural control variables are utilized.     

海盗行为和海上恐怖主义行为的比较研究

海盗行为和海上恐怖主义行为受国际政治经济因素的影响,近年来在国际上呈现愈演愈烈之势。本文通过对国际条约中有关两者的定义和主要管辖机制的对比分析,试图找出两者的共同之处,以期对打击两种犯罪提出建议。     

破坏生产经营罪“其他方法”的解释论展开

近年来,破坏生产经营罪被适用之频率愈来愈高且呈现出口袋罪的倾向。在网络发达、商业繁荣的今天,学者们多认为破坏生产经营罪的罪状已经不能满足于现实生活,因此以可罚之必要性为内核的实质解释论者将本罪的“其他方法”进行过度扩张,这使得本罪几乎可以包含一切对经济利益造成损害的行为。为了遏制其口袋罪之倾向,从具体案件出发,对司法适用现状进行考察,综述了形式解释立场和实质解释立场在解释“其他方法”时的各自观点,反思其利弊,并坚持形式解释之立场。最终提出应当在适用同类解释规则解释“其他方法”时对列举项的类型进行提炼,坚持先列举项后概括项、先形式后实质的解释思路,从而合理认定本罪的“其他方法”。     

Risk Clusters,Hotspots, and Spatial Intelligence: Risk Terrain Modeling as an Algorithm for Police Resource Allocation Strategies

The study reported here follows the suggestion by Caplan et al. (Justice Q, 2010) that risk terrain modeling (RTM) be developed by doing more work to elaborate, operationalize, and test variables that would provide added value to its application in police operations. Building on the ideas presented by Caplan et al., we address three important issues related to RTM that sets it apart from current approaches to spatial crime analysis. First, we address the selection criteria used in determining which risk layers to include in risk terrain models. Second, we compare the “best model” risk terrain derived from our analysis to the traditional hotspot density mapping technique by considering both the statistical power and overall usefulness of each approach. Third, we test for “risk clusters” in risk terrain maps to determine how they can be used to target police resources in a way that improves upon the current practice of using density maps of past crime in determining future locations of crime occurrence. This paper concludes with an in depth exploration of how one might develop strategies for incorporating risk terrains into police decision-making. RTM can be developed to the point where it may be more readily adopted by police crime analysts and enable police to be more effectively proactive and identify areas with the greatest probability of becoming locations for crime in the future. The targeting of police interventions that emerges would be based on a sound understanding of geographic attributes and qualities of space that connect to crime outcomes and would not be the result of identifying individuals from specific groups or characteristics of people as likely candidates for crime, a tactic that has led police agencies to be accused of profiling. In addition, place-based interventions may offer a more efficient method of impacting crime than efforts focused on individuals.     

The Moral Mirror Image of Crime: A Comparison of Recorded Crime and Crime Recorded in Fiction

Moral and ethical aspects of crime are often ignored in most criminological research. In order to probe these two dimensions, crime recorded in fiction was compared with statistically recorded crime. Two hypotheses were tested: the first suggested that crime fiction portrayed the “reality” of actual statistics, while the second suggested that crime fiction was totally unrelated to crime statistics. Comparing data obtained from a North American literary journal and crime statistics obtained from a Canadian province, the results of the study supported the second hypothesis and indicated that crime fiction was totally unrelated to recorded statistics. Crime fiction seemed to represent a moral pacemaker of the perceived fears of the public, while crime statistics seem to represent the criminal pulse of society.

The negative correlation between fiction and recorded statistics is a significant find in that it indicates the reading public's preoccupation and fascination with a very small segment of criminal activity in society—an unrealistic fear of serious injury or death due to violent crime, far out of proportion with reality especially when impending doom is much more probable on the highways in automobile accidents.     

Violent Street Crime Versus Harmful White-Collar Crime: A Comparison of Perceived Seriousness and Punitiveness

Recent studies have challenged traditional wisdom regarding public apathy about white-collar crime by revealing equal or greater perceived seriousness of these offenses among respondents relative to traditional crime. Nevertheless, subjects in those studies were generally asked to contrast white-collar crime scenarios with a non-violent street crime baseline vignette. Perhaps a violent street crime would have invited lower perceived seriousness for the white-collar offenses. Participants in the present study were asked to (1) read vignettes describing violent street crimes and physically harmful white-collar crimes, (2) compare their seriousness, and (3) determine appropriate sanctions. Subjects perceived the violent crime scenarios presented to them to be more serious than the harmful white-collar crime vignettes. Further, they were less punitive toward white-collar offenders compared with street criminals. Implications of these findings are discussed.     

Understanding the Relationship Between Relative Group Size and Hate Crime Rates: Linking Methods with Concepts

Abstract

In recent studies, Hipp et al. caution that the selection of the appropriate denominator in computing the rate of intra- and inter-group interactions is consequential for key findings. The present study builds on this work and examines whether adjusting for the structural opportunities for any type of interaction affects the observed relationship between hate crime rates and minority group size. We go beyond prior research by computing distinctive measures of anti-Black hate crime rates across US counties circa 2000. Our findings offer support for the power-differential hypothesis, revealing a negative effect of minority population size on crime motivated by bias. These results also underline the importance of the procedure developed by Hipp et al., showing that that the selection of the “baseline” for the computation of hate crime rates is critical for understanding the relationship between minority group size and crime motivated by bias.     

Children's Rights to Representation: A Comparison Between Sweden and England

In both England and in Sweden, the approach to a child's rightto representation differs between public law cases and privatelaw cases regarding legal custody/parental responsibility, residenceor contact. This article discusses the basis for this distinction,and how far it accords with the best interests of the child.     

Modeling Micro-Level Crime Location Choice: Application of the Discrete Choice Framework to Crime at Places

Discrete choice recently emerged as a new framework for analyzing criminal location decisions, but has thus far only been used to study the choice amongst large areas like census tracts. Because offenders also make target selection decisions at much lower levels of spatial aggregation, the present study analyzes the location choices of offenders at detailed spatial resolutions: the average unit of analysis is an area of only 18 residential units and 40 residents. This article reviews the discrete choice and spatial choice literature, justifies the use of geographic units this small, and argues that because small spatial units depend strongly on their environment, models are needed that take into account spatial interdependence. To illustrate these points, burglary location choice data from the Netherlands are analyzed with discrete choice models, including the spatial competition model.     

基于X线的活体骨骼年龄评定方法及其他技术

国内外通常利用X线片观察骨骼继发性骨化中心的出现和骨骺闭合程度的影像学特征来推断年龄。其中较常用的方法有计数法、计测法、图谱法、评分法及计算机辅助评定骨龄法等。目前国外普遍采用TW评分法。国内也有该评分法的应用报道。主要应用于体育和儿科临床实践中。法医临床学实践中常用六大关节判别方程法推断骨龄和活体年龄推断。其他还有利用牙齿内天冬氨酸的消旋化、骨密度检测以及端粒末端DNA片段长度的变化等年龄推断方法。     

政府犯罪：研究国家国际犯罪的新视角

基于国际社会面对"国家犯罪"与国家刑事责任的争论,简要介绍政府犯罪观念产生的背景、初步概念、独立性及政府刑事责任双罚制;着重分析政府犯罪与国家犯罪的关系;得出尽管政府在国家不法行为和国际犯罪中扮演重要的角色,但政府犯罪不能完全等同于国家犯罪这一结论.在现有的国家责任体系中,建立政府刑事责任制度,具有法理和实践层面的可行性,符合国际社会现实状况.     

Recovery of Trace DNA on Clothing: A Comparison of Mini‐tape Lifting and Three Other Forensic Evidence Collection Techniques

Trace DNA is often found in forensic science investigations. Experience has shown that it is difficult to retrieve a DNA profile when trace DNA is collected from clothing. The aim of this study was to compare four different DNA collection techniques on six different types of clothing in order to determine the best trace DNA recovery method. The classical stain recovery technique using a wet cotton swab was tested against dry swabbing, scraping and a new method, referred to as the mini‐tape lifting technique. Physical contact was simulated with three different “perpetrators” on 18 machine‐washed garments. DNA was collected with the four different DNA recovery methods and subjected to standard PCR‐based DNA profiling. The comparison of STR results showed best results for the mini‐tape lifting and scraping methods independent of the type of clothing. The new mini‐tape lifting technique proved to be an easy and reliable DNA collection method for textiles.     

Risky Reports: Crime Risk Assessments and Spatial Governance

The identification, assessment, and minimization of crime risk has permeated practices that extend well beyond traditional criminal justice responses. This article analyses crime risk assessment reports and the guidelines and processes through which they are produced for large-scale commercial and residential developments and redevelopments, taking New South Wales Australia as a case study. The article suggests that although the crime risk assessment guidelines and reports deploy a language of risk, there is a messiness and inconsistency to the crime risk assessment process that raises significant questions its normative utility. The article concludes that the language and promise of risk minimisation can silence or ‘black box’ what appear to be coherent regulatory process making them little more than symbolic gestures.     

Crime and Justice in Japan: Implications for the United States

Examining official statistics from the United States since the mid-1960's, we see rapidly increasing rates of crime. Japan, on the other hand, has experienced rates that have dramatically declined during this same period. In fact, Japan is the only industrialized non-communist nation where crime has been decreasing. This paper summarizes the structural/cultural and justice related reasons for this phenomenon. Implications for the United States are specified.     

Violent Crime in the Urban Community: A Comparison of Stockholm and Basel

In this article the authors present some preliminary findings from a comparative study of police recorded violent crimes in Stockholm and Basel. They present the first results from a comparative analysis of the situational context, the ecology of crime, and of offender residences in these cities. There is impressive evidence of basic similarities in the situational context of violent crime and the residential distribution of violent offenders. Yet there are also significant differences, some of which may have interesting implications for crime prevention. Firstly, violent crime seems to be more highly concentrated during weekend nights in Stockholm than in Basel. Secondly, they find evidence that the presence of weapons in a community increases the risk of more serious outcomes of violent events. Efforts to reduce the availability of weapons may thus have significant effects on the outcomes of violence, but not necessarily on its frequency. Thirdly, they show that offenders in both cities are highly concentrated in socially disorganised communities with few economic and social resources.