Applying Crime Prediction Techniques to Japan: A Comparison Between Risk Terrain Modeling and Other Methods

In recent years, the field of crime prediction has drawn increasing attention in Japan. However, predicting crime in Japan is especially challenging because the crime rate is considerably lower than that of other developed countries, making the development of a statistical model for crime prediction quite difficult. Risk terrain modeling (RTM) may be the most suitable method, as it depends mainly on the environmental factors associated with crime and does not require past crime data. In this study, we applied RTM to cases of theft from vehicles in Fukuoka, Japan, in 2014 and evaluated the predictive performance (hit rate and predictive accuracy index) in comparison to other crime prediction techniques, including KDE, ProMap, and SEPP, which use past crime occurrences to predict future crime. RTM was approximately twice as effective as the other techniques. Based on the results, we discuss the merits of and drawbacks to using RTM in Japan.     

Risk Clusters,Hotspots, and Spatial Intelligence: Risk Terrain Modeling as an Algorithm for Police Resource Allocation Strategies

The study reported here follows the suggestion by Caplan et al. (Justice Q, 2010) that risk terrain modeling (RTM) be developed by doing more work to elaborate, operationalize, and test variables that would provide added value to its application in police operations. Building on the ideas presented by Caplan et al., we address three important issues related to RTM that sets it apart from current approaches to spatial crime analysis. First, we address the selection criteria used in determining which risk layers to include in risk terrain models. Second, we compare the “best model” risk terrain derived from our analysis to the traditional hotspot density mapping technique by considering both the statistical power and overall usefulness of each approach. Third, we test for “risk clusters” in risk terrain maps to determine how they can be used to target police resources in a way that improves upon the current practice of using density maps of past crime in determining future locations of crime occurrence. This paper concludes with an in depth exploration of how one might develop strategies for incorporating risk terrains into police decision-making. RTM can be developed to the point where it may be more readily adopted by police crime analysts and enable police to be more effectively proactive and identify areas with the greatest probability of becoming locations for crime in the future. The targeting of police interventions that emerges would be based on a sound understanding of geographic attributes and qualities of space that connect to crime outcomes and would not be the result of identifying individuals from specific groups or characteristics of people as likely candidates for crime, a tactic that has led police agencies to be accused of profiling. In addition, place-based interventions may offer a more efficient method of impacting crime than efforts focused on individuals.     

Enhancing Data-Driven Law Enforcement Efforts: Exploring how Risk Terrain Modeling and Conjunctive Analysis Fit in a Crime and Traffic Safety Framework

Law enforcement’s examination of vehicle crashes is often nested in the Data-Driven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety (DDACTS) framework which highlights the importance of hot spot analysis. To assist law enforcement efforts, this study explores how two additional spatial techniques, namely risk terrain modeling (RTM) and conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC), could be incorporated within the DDACTS framework. RTM was utilized to identify how the built, physical environment contributed to the risk of traffic incidents. RTM identified 6 risk factors related to the occurrence of vehicle crashes, and high-risk places were compared to hot spots on predictive accuracy. CACC was used to explore configurations likely to result in traffic incidents for the priority places. Our findings support the Theory of Risky Places and fit within a vulnerability-exposure framework, providing law enforcement with guidance for identifying places where vehicle crashes are likely to occur in the future. In addition to providing insight for law enforcement, we discuss how law enforcement can develop working partnerships with stakeholders capable of preventing and/or reducing traffic incidents, which is in line with the general DDACTS framework.

     

Private Military Contractors,Crime, and the Terrain of Unaccountability

Criminological research has traditionally attempted to explain the etiological factors of crime and then suggest appropriate controls. More often than not, the foci of this kind of work have remained on “street crime.” Since the 1990s, however, some scholars have turned their attention to the causal factors of corporate crime, state crime, crimes of globalization, supranational crimes, and their various permutations and interconnections. Clearly missing from this literature is the growing phenomenon of private military contractors (PMCs) and the crimogenic culture of and atmosphere within which they operate. Specifically, while the use of PMCs is rapidly growing, the increasing propensity for PMC's crimogenic culture and the unregulated nature of what has become a global industry is rarely studied by social scientists. Further, few criminologists have examined this area of research by applying criminological theory to explain the growth and emergence of PMCs. Our goal is to help fill this gap. Through the process of theory building and refinement we identify factors that facilitate the criminogenic environment within which PMCs operate. Additionally, without attempting to expand explanatory and causal mechanisms, policies aimed at reducing PMC criminality and social justice for their victims cannot be developed. As such, we draw from theoretical developments in state and state‐corporate crime, social disorganization, and anomie literature to shed light on key factors associated with PMCs, namely, the crimogenic atmosphere within which they operate.     

Modeling Micro-Level Crime Location Choice: Application of the Discrete Choice Framework to Crime at Places

Discrete choice recently emerged as a new framework for analyzing criminal location decisions, but has thus far only been used to study the choice amongst large areas like census tracts. Because offenders also make target selection decisions at much lower levels of spatial aggregation, the present study analyzes the location choices of offenders at detailed spatial resolutions: the average unit of analysis is an area of only 18 residential units and 40 residents. This article reviews the discrete choice and spatial choice literature, justifies the use of geographic units this small, and argues that because small spatial units depend strongly on their environment, models are needed that take into account spatial interdependence. To illustrate these points, burglary location choice data from the Netherlands are analyzed with discrete choice models, including the spatial competition model.     

Crime,deportation and the regulation of immigrants in Canada

Criminality is now one of the most frequently used provisions for deporting non-citizens from Canada. Individuals who are convicted of crimes outlined in current immigration policies can find themselves subject to deportation proceedings after they have served their sentences unless they are eligible to make an appeal and can do so successfully. This paper examines 177 reported immigration appeal hearings in Canada involving non-citizens who are ordered deported on the basis of criminality. Using documentary analysis along with basic statistics to analyze the appeal hearing decisions, I demonstrate how gender and racial ideologies shape the outcome of these decisions. Theories of moral regulation, social control and governmentality are employed to develop an understanding of the state's treatment of immigrants. That a significant number of immigrants in this study were not deported, but were granted stays with strict conditions highlights how deportation hearings are one mechanism for differentiating between ‘deserving’ and ‘undeserving’ immigrants. This study illustrates how, through the use of racial and gender ideologies, deportation practices are as much about differential exclusion as they are about enforced assimilation. Concerns around criminality rationalizes the ongoing regulation and surveillance of immigrants and the threat of deportation ensures their compliance.This research was funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC Grant No. 31-632203). An earlier version of this paper was presented at the British Society of Criminology Annual Meetings in Bangor, Wales, July 2003 and at the Canadian Law and Society Association Annual Meetings in Halifax, Canada, June 2003.     

Supervised injection sites: Health Canada approves Vancouver pilot sites, but concerns remain

The paperwork has been processed, and Health Canada says that two pilot supervised injection sites (SISs) in Vancouver can now proceed, but operational funding for the site to be located in the Downtown Eastside has yet to be secured. Meanwhile, tired of waiting for the sanctioned SISs to open, community groups in Vancouver have begun to operate unsanctioned sites. There are also concerns that even if operational funding for the Downtown Eastside site is obtained, the pilot SIS project is too small in scope to make a major impact on public health in the area.     

Youth Crime in Canada: Observations for Cross-Cultural Analysis

Despite its proximity to the United States, Canada provides a unique context within which youth crime can be examined and utilized for comparative analyses. Canada's demographics, cultural mosaic, and the legislative and political bases of criminal justice are quite distinct from those of the United States. While Canadian youth generally experience lower rates of crime than their U.S. counterparts, there are areas where such rates are comparable and require close examination. Among the emerging concerns in youth crime are crime in urban areas, ethnic youth gangs, and the high rates of involvement of aboriginal youth in crime in many areas of the country. The notions of vulnerable youths and viable communities are offered as two useful concepts for the study of youth crime on a national and cross-national basis. High on the research agenda are studies of youth crime in the urban/rural/remote areas of the country, the impact of immigration policy on the emergence of specific types of youth crime, and longitudinal studies of male and female youth crime.     

诈骗罪中的财产损害

诈骗罪是事关财产的犯罪,诈骗罪的成立应当要求被害人具有财产损失,即在未遂的情况下,要求欺骗行为具有造成被害人财产损失的危险性;在既遂的情况下,则要求诈骗行为造成被害人现实的财产损失。整体财产减少说、形式性个别财产减少说以及折中说均有不足之处,因此,诈骗罪中的财产损害应当以实质性个别财产减少为基准进行判断,即综合处分行为前后财产的价值,在此基础上,以处分后的财产是否受到损失为基准进行判断。另外,相应给付,欺诈性乞讨、募捐,欺诈性权利行使均可以成立诈骗罪。     

Unemployment, Economic Theory, and Property Crime: A Note on Measurement

Drawing on rational choice theory, this study considers how best to measureunemployment within the context of the unemployment–property crimerelationship. Specifically, we use ARIMA techniques to examine the relativeefficacy of using the conventional Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)unemployment rate and two alternative measures of the demand for labor aspredictors of monthly counts of U.S. property offenses for the years 1982through 1996. The bivariate time series analyses indicate that while theBLS unemployment rate exhibits null effects, the number of individualsunemployed for 15 weeks or more and the capacity utilization ratesignificantly affect the level of property crime. The implications ofthese results are discussed.     

Facilitators and Impediments to Designing,Implementing, and Evaluating Risk-Based Policing Strategies Using Risk Terrain Modeling: Insights from a Multi-City Evaluation in the United States

The contemporary policing literature contains numerous examples of partnerships between academic researchers and police agencies. Such efforts have greatly contributed to evidence-based policing by increasing the knowledge base on effective strategies. However, research has demonstrated that successful collaboration between researchers and practitioners can be a challenge, with various organizational and inter-agency factors presenting difficulties at various stages of the process. Additionally, applied research can oftentimes face implementation challenges when the time comes to convert research into practice. The current study contributes to the literature by discussing researcher/practitioner partnerships and program implementation in the context of a multi-city risk-based policing project in the United States. We conceptualize police interventions as contingent on four distinct phases: 1) problem analysis, 2) project design, 3) project implementation, and 4) project evaluation. In this project, the research partners were able to successfully complete each phase in certain cities while the project experienced difficulty at one or more phases in other cities. We discuss these disparate experiences, identifying factors that facilitate or impede successful completion of each step. Policy implications and recommendations for future risk-based policing interventions are discussed.     

Victimization Rates, Exposure to Risk, and Fear of Crime

Studies of fear of crime repeatedly point to an apparent paradox: fear of crime and risk of victimization are related inversely among demographic groups (i.e., age, race, and sex groups). However, data from surveys of Chicago residents show that fear of crime is related positively to victimization rates once they are adjusted for exposure to risk. When demographic variables are included with the adjusted rates as predictors of fear of crime, age and sex effects persist. Even so the present findings indicate that fear of crime should not be interpreted as an irrational or unjustified response and that fear can be reduced by lowering victimization rates.     

经济犯罪、商业犯罪、财产犯罪的罪刑关系研究

经济犯罪、商业犯罪、财产犯罪是市场经济中常发多见的犯罪形式,但是目前在中外的刑法典和刑法学中对它们的规定和研究存在一定的偏差;经济犯罪是经济主体在经济干预或者调控的过程中实施的严重侵犯经济秩序和经济利益的行为;商业犯罪亦即商事犯罪,是指商事主体在商品生产、商品经营或者商业服务过程中实施的严重侵犯商事活动秩序和他人商业利益的行为;财产犯罪是行为人在对财产的占有、使用、收益、处分的过程中实施的严重侵犯他人财产权益的行为;三者在主体、罪过、目的、动机、客体、行为方式、手段、定罪情节、处罚原则等方面都存在明显差异,但它们却完整地构成了以三者为主体、以财产犯罪为基础的市场经济犯罪新体系。     

Social Ties, Collective Efficacy and Perceived Neighborhood Property Crime in Guangzhou, China

This study aims to (1) explore perceptions of property crime at the neighborhood level and their correlates based on a random sample from Guangzhou, China and (2) assess the applicability of collective efficacy theory in contemporary urban China. Since the data used in this study are multilevel and the dependent variable is dichotomous, a generalized hierarchical linear model was used for analysis of the data. This study reveals that both community structural variables (residential stability and poverty) and community process variables (social ties, collective efficacy and semi-formal control) were found to affect individuals’ perceptions of neighborhood property crime in Guangzhou. However, communities in Guangzhou are different from those in big cities in the US. This is evidenced by several findings in this study: (1) poorer communities in Guangzhou were not associated with lower levels of formal and informal control; (2) communities with higher levels of residential mobility were neither linked to higher levels of poverty nor disorganization; and (3) the correlation between residential stability and perceived neighborhood property crime was not mediated by community processes.     

收入差距、经济增长与中国的财产犯罪——1978-2005年的实证研究

通过对中国1978-2005年间收入差距、经济增长等宏观经济因素对财产犯罪的影响所进行的实证研究发现,全国、城镇内部、农村内部以及城乡之间的收入差距对财产犯罪产生了显著的影响,经济增长与财产犯罪呈显著的负相关关系,同时中国的财产犯罪还表现出明显的惯性特征。而诸如人均GDP、城市化、福利开支等虽然对财产犯罪产生了影响,但都不显著。