Bus Stops and Violence,Are Risky Places Really Risky?

Geographic forecasting of crime can be done by considering prior crime or by considering spatial risk factors, e.g., using risk terrain modeling (RTM). The present paper tests both methods, but primarily focuses on RTM and on increasing our understanding of forecasting by attempting to compare the spatial risk factors for where the number of crimes is high with the spatial risk factors for where the risk of victimization is high. This is performed by fitting negative binomial models on crime around bus stops and comparing them to the same models with the number of bus passengers as exposure variable. The models also take the surrounding environment into account by fitting multi-level models with neighborhood level predictors of concentrated disadvantage and collective efficacy. The results show that some types of facilities are risk factors for crime, but not for victimization. This results in new insights into how flows of people impact on forecasting, as for instance a school is a spatial risk factor for crime, while not being associated with an elevated risk per person. The results also show that the neighborhood level of collective efficacy is a stable and significant risk factor both for crime and for risk of victimization, highlighting a potential for better crime forecasting by combining different spatial and theoretical perspectives.     

Risk Terrain Modeling and Socio-Economic Stratification: Identifying Risky Places for Violent Crime Victimization in Bogotá, Colombia

This research focused on the effect of the built environment on Bogotá’s violent crime by using the Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) technique. The current study used 17 ecological variables, including micro-level data on the spatial distribution of socio-economic strata, and the location of an array of businesses and other features of the landscape. As suggested by the results of this study, the spatial distribution of violent crime in Bogotá is highly correlated with the allocation of socio-economic strata throughout its geography. A statistically valid RTM analysis identified the micro-level risk factors associated with three types of violent crime incidents, namely homicide, assault, and theft incidents. These results suggest that future violent crime incidents are more likely to occur at a reduced number of high-risk micro-places. Moreover, while homicide and assault incidents were more likely to cluster within the poorest areas of the city, theft incidents presented a higher risk of victimization near the city center, where economic activity and suitable targets concentrate. This study offers a unique account regarding the effect of socio-economic segregation on violent crime victimization across Bogotá’s geography and within different socio-economic strata classifications.     

Applying Crime Prediction Techniques to Japan: A Comparison Between Risk Terrain Modeling and Other Methods

In recent years, the field of crime prediction has drawn increasing attention in Japan. However, predicting crime in Japan is especially challenging because the crime rate is considerably lower than that of other developed countries, making the development of a statistical model for crime prediction quite difficult. Risk terrain modeling (RTM) may be the most suitable method, as it depends mainly on the environmental factors associated with crime and does not require past crime data. In this study, we applied RTM to cases of theft from vehicles in Fukuoka, Japan, in 2014 and evaluated the predictive performance (hit rate and predictive accuracy index) in comparison to other crime prediction techniques, including KDE, ProMap, and SEPP, which use past crime occurrences to predict future crime. RTM was approximately twice as effective as the other techniques. Based on the results, we discuss the merits of and drawbacks to using RTM in Japan.     

Risk Clusters,Hotspots, and Spatial Intelligence: Risk Terrain Modeling as an Algorithm for Police Resource Allocation Strategies

The study reported here follows the suggestion by Caplan et al. (Justice Q, 2010) that risk terrain modeling (RTM) be developed by doing more work to elaborate, operationalize, and test variables that would provide added value to its application in police operations. Building on the ideas presented by Caplan et al., we address three important issues related to RTM that sets it apart from current approaches to spatial crime analysis. First, we address the selection criteria used in determining which risk layers to include in risk terrain models. Second, we compare the “best model” risk terrain derived from our analysis to the traditional hotspot density mapping technique by considering both the statistical power and overall usefulness of each approach. Third, we test for “risk clusters” in risk terrain maps to determine how they can be used to target police resources in a way that improves upon the current practice of using density maps of past crime in determining future locations of crime occurrence. This paper concludes with an in depth exploration of how one might develop strategies for incorporating risk terrains into police decision-making. RTM can be developed to the point where it may be more readily adopted by police crime analysts and enable police to be more effectively proactive and identify areas with the greatest probability of becoming locations for crime in the future. The targeting of police interventions that emerges would be based on a sound understanding of geographic attributes and qualities of space that connect to crime outcomes and would not be the result of identifying individuals from specific groups or characteristics of people as likely candidates for crime, a tactic that has led police agencies to be accused of profiling. In addition, place-based interventions may offer a more efficient method of impacting crime than efforts focused on individuals.     

Fear of Crime Revisited: Examining the Direct and Indirect Effects of Disorder,Risk Perception,and Social Capital

Fear of crime has long been considered a significant social problem, spurring decades of academic research and leading to a variety of policy initiatives. Building on prior research, this study investigated the direct and indirect effects of demographic characteristics, social and physical disorder, and prior victimization on fear of crime. Further, it assessed the direct and indirect effects of perceived risk on fear. Finally, the research examined the extent to which social capital mediated the impact of these variables on fear. Using data from a survey of residents in a southeastern city, analyses reveal that victimization and disorder significantly predict fear of crime, and that risk perception and social capital mediate the relationship between disorder and victimization on fear. Further, structural equation models show a number of interesting indirect effects. Policy implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

Victimization Rates, Exposure to Risk, and Fear of Crime

Studies of fear of crime repeatedly point to an apparent paradox: fear of crime and risk of victimization are related inversely among demographic groups (i.e., age, race, and sex groups). However, data from surveys of Chicago residents show that fear of crime is related positively to victimization rates once they are adjusted for exposure to risk. When demographic variables are included with the adjusted rates as predictors of fear of crime, age and sex effects persist. Even so the present findings indicate that fear of crime should not be interpreted as an irrational or unjustified response and that fear can be reduced by lowering victimization rates.     

Risk Terrain Modeling: Brokering Criminological Theory and GIS Methods for Crime Forecasting

The research presented here has two key objectives. The first is to apply risk terrain modeling (RTM) to forecast the crime of shootings. The risk terrain maps that were produced from RTM use a range of contextual information relevant to the opportunity structure of shootings to estimate risks of future shootings as they are distributed throughout a geography. The second objective was to test the predictive power of the risk terrain maps over two six‐month time periods, and to compare them against the predictive ability of retrospective hot spot maps. Results suggest that risk terrains provide a statistically significant forecast of future shootings across a range of cut points and are substantially more accurate than retrospective hot spot mapping. In addition, risk terrain maps produce information that can be operationalized by police administrators easily and efficiently, such as for directing police patrols to coalesced high‐risk areas.     

Online victimization risk and self-protective strategies: developing police-led cyber fraud prevention programs

ABSTRACT

The prevalence and impact of cyber fraud continues to increase exponentially with new and more innovative methods developed by offenders to target and exploit victims for their own financial reward. Traditional crime reaction methods used by police have proved largely ineffective in this context, with offenders typically located outside of the police jurisdiction of their victims. Given this, some police agencies have begun to adopt a victim focused, crime prevention approach to cyber fraud. The current research explores with a sample of two hundred and eighteen potential cyber fraud victims, the relationship between online victimization risk, knowledge and use of crime prevention strategies. The study found those most at risk of cyber fraud victimization despite accurate perceptions of risk and knowledge of self-protective behaviors in the online environment underutilise online prevention strategies. This research has important implications for police agencies who are designing and delivering cyber fraud education. It provides guidance for the development of effective prevention programs based on practical skills development.     

Risk Perceptions and Fear of Criminal Victimization Among Visitors to Jamaica

ABSTRACT

Tourism is viewed as being particularly vulnerable to crime and data on the attitudes of visitors and travel agents tend to confirm this. Visitor perceptions of the risk of being criminally victimized in Jamaica have tended to be somewhat negative although the rate of criminal victimization of tourists is fairly low. Visitors' perceptions of safety are thus not in keeping with the objective indicators of the risk of tourist victimization. This paper attempts to explain this disjuncture between risk perception and the reality of visitor victimization. It discusses the likely long-term effects, and suggests possible responses to it.     

MACRO-MICRO INTEGRATION IN THE STUDY OF VICTIMIZATION: A HIERARCHICAL LOGISTIC MODEL ANALYSIS ACROSS SEATTLE NEIGHBORHOODS*

Recent contextual analyses of victimization survey data are extended by application of hierarchical logistic model techniques. Using a multi-stage sample of 5,090 Seattle residents, we estimate models for individuals' risks of violent crime and burglary victimization as a function of both individual crime opportunity factors (routine activity and personal lifestyle) and contextual indicators of neighborhood social disorganization (neighborhood incivilities on conditions of disorder, ethnic heterogeneity, and neighborhood density in terms of both residents and strangers). Strong contextual direct effects of density, disorder, and heterogeneity are observed for violent and or burglary risks. Further, the hierarchical method used here provides a richer type of contextual analysis, indicating that neighborhood factors also “condition” the impact of crime opportunity factors for risk of both violent and burglary victimization. Implications for theoretical integration, victimization prevention strategies, and crime control policies are discussed.     

Fear of crime while camping: examining perceptions of risk,safety precautions,and victimization effects

Past research suggests that fear of crime is influenced by several factors including perceptions of risk and previous victimization. Fear of crime may also vary by location and context. The current study examines the influences on fear of crime among campers including perceptions of risk and past experiences with victimization while camping. Survey data collected from individuals camping in state and national parks were analyzed. Fear of crime was significantly related to perceptions of risk and taking safety precautions, however experiencing a previous victimization while camping was only marginally related to fear. Participants expressed higher levels of fear and perceptions of risk in their own neighborhoods compared to when camping. These results are discussed in terms of policy implications and suggestions for further research.     

Posttraumatic stress disorder symptom severity and fear of personal crime: exploring their interrelationship as a function of risk estimation

Both trauma psychology and criminology have studied the psychological correlates of crime victimization. While the former discipline has primarily focused on the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among crime victims, the latter has particularly studied the association between history of victimization and fear of crime. A major difference between both concepts is that PTSD is experienced in relation to previous victimization, while fear of crime does not necessarily follow from previous victimization and is primarily experienced in anticipation of possible future victimization. Despite their different orientations, both perspectives share one central tenet: they both argue that feelings of anxiety are accompanied by increased perceptions of risk for future victimization. Given this theoretical overlap, both types of anxiety may correlate with each other. The current study explored this topic in a sample of Dutch university students (N = 375) and found that PTSD symptom severity and fear of crime were significantly associated with each other, both in univariate and multivariate analyses. This association was stronger for participants who scored higher on perceived risk of personal crime victimization than for those who scored lower. Results were discussed in light of study limitations and directions for future research.     

Use of Protection Motivation Theory to Assess Fear of Crime in Rural Areas

Fear of crime has long been the purview of sociology, with attitudes more extensively researched in higher risk urban populations. A sample of 184 rural participants from 36 states in the USA responded to a questionnaire on experiences of crime victimization, and attitudes toward crime, using the multidimensional Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) model. For the entire sample, perceived noxiousness of crime and personal risk corresponded to a recent history of victimization. Yet, victimization did not appear to alter perceptions of efficacy of proposed response or self efficacy in response to crime. When sorted by gender, women did express differences in perceptions of efficacy based on experience. The findings argue for fear of crime as a multidimensional construct, with implications for both research and applied programs.     

Fraud victimization: Risky business or just bad luck?

Victimology theory recognizes that the characteristics, attitudes, and behaviors of potential victims influence the likelihood of criminal victimization. An important question for victimologists is whether potential victims put themselves at risk by engaging in risky behavior or whether victimization is primarily a result of bad luck. While this question has been investigated extensively with respect to street crime victimization, little attempt has been made to apply it to victimization by fraud. This article investigates the influence of attitudes toward financial risk taking on the likelihood of fraud victimization. Using data from a telephone survey of 400 randomly sampled respondents, we find that age and attitudes toward financial risk taking are significantly related to the likelihood of attempted victimizations but not to successful victimizations.     

Personal networks and crime victimization among Swedish youth

We combine routine activity theory, lifestyle-victimization theory, and a social network perspective to examine crime victimization. In particular, we study to what extent crime victimization is associated with having close contacts who have been victimized and/or who engage in risky lifestyles. We use the data (collected in 2014) of 1,051 native Swedes and 1,108 Iranian and Yugoslavian first- or second-generation immigrants in Sweden who were all born in 1990. They were asked to describe their personal characteristics, various behaviours, and past personal experiences with crime victimization, as well as those of the five persons with whom they most often spend their leisure time. Our findings support the network perspective: crime victimization is negatively associated with the number of close contacts an individual mentions but is substantially more likely for those who have many close contacts who have themselves been victimized. In terms of a risky lifestyle that may enhance the likelihood of being victimized, we found only that individuals who get drunk frequently were at somewhat higher risk of being victimized. To guard young individuals against crime victimization, it might thus be worthwhile to focus more on with whom they associate than on their potentially risky lifestyles or attitudes.     

HOMICIDE AGAINST THE ELDERLY: A RESEARCH NOTE*

By virtue of the type of data generally used (victim surveys), previous research on the victimization of the elderly is limited in two respects. Not only is the crime of homicide outside the domain of victimization data, but sample surveys uncover too few incidents of victimization of the elderly to permit in-depth analyses. Using the supplementary homicide reports from 1976–1985, we compared patterns and rates of homicide among the elderly and younger populations. Our results suggest that the elderly are in fact the least at risk for homicide generally, as has been reported for other crimes. When examining specific subtypes of homicide, however, the elderly are actually at greater risk than their younger counterparts for homicide committed during a robbery.     

Risk terrain modeling for road safety: identifying crash-related environmental factors in the province of Cádiz,Spain

Environmental Criminology has developed a robust framework that provides the scientific support and necessary foundation for crime analysis through crime mapping. This theoretical approach focuses on the situational and temporal characteristics of criminal opportunity rather than on the offender’s behavior for crime prevention. In the scope of road safety and traffic crashes, few studies have adopted this approach. This study used risk terrain modeling (RTM), developed by the Rutgers Center on Public Security, to determine the relative importance of varying environmental risk factors on alcohol-related crashes and traffic accidents. The independent variables consisted of a set of potential environmental risk factors, while the dependent variable comprised all DWI crashes and traffic accidents in the province of Cádiz in 2012. According to the results of the current study, restaurant locations are spatially associated with the occurrence of drunk driving crashes, while proximity restaurants and recreational lodging centers correlate with the sites of traffic accidents.     

Perceptions of victimization risk and fear of crime among lesbians and gay men

Research on fear of crime has evolved to suggest the existence of a complex relationship between individual, lifestyle, and contextual factors. Past work generally focuses on predominantly heterosexual populations; this study examines correlates of fear of crime and perceptions of risk among a sample of 272 self-identified lesbians and gay men. Higher levels of perceived risk and fear of victimization were found among females, persons in neighborhoods characterized by incivility, and persons who had experienced previous victimization. Perceived risks of personal and property victimization were similar for males and females. Contrary to past research, women did not seem to view all types of potential victimization as opportunities for sexual assault. Instead, fear of victimization was offense specific--past personal victimization predicted fear of future personal victimization, and past property victimization predicted fear of future property victimization. Similarities and differences between current findings and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Psychiatric diagnosis as a risk marker for victimization in a national sample of children

Research examining childhood abuse has shown an association between victimization and psychiatric diagnoses (e.g., posttraumatic stress disorder, depression). Historically, psychiatric diagnoses have been emphasized as a consequence of victimization, with less research examining if it also functions as a risk factor for further victimization, perhaps making diagnoses a general victimization risk marker. In addition, much of this research has emphasized particular types of victimization such as childhood physical or sexual abuse. Researchers have given less attention to other forms of victimization (e.g., peer victimization, witnessed violence) or a diverse victimization history. Using the Juvenile Victimization Questionnaire (JVQ) we surveyed parents and children between the ages of 2 and 17 using a random digit dial (RDD) methodology. We examined the relationship between a number of different forms of victimization (termed poly-victimization ) in the preceding year and parent-reported lifetime psychiatric diagnosis. Results show that children with a psychiatric diagnosis have significantly higher rates of victimization than children without a psychiatric diagnosis. In addition, using logistic regression models, we find that psychiatric diagnosis was associated with increased risk for poly-victimization, conventional crime victimization, maltreatment, peer or sibling victimization, and witnessing violence, but not sexual abuse. The results highlight the need to consider psychiatric diagnoses as a risk marker for past and possible future victimization. In addition, the importance of obtaining a comprehensive and more diverse victimization history when working with children is highlighted.