Supply multipliers in a centrally planned economy with a private sector

A simple model of a centrally planned economy is developed with a state sector and private sector, and with a supply constraint affecting state sector output. In such a model, a supply multiplier can be derived under the same conditions which would make an increase in state sector prices an effective means of reducing shortage. Moreover, a one-sector constrained equilibrium model of the state sector does not yield misleading results by ignoring the private sector; and the private sector price level is a reliable indicator of shortage in the economy.     

Multisectoral econometric models of the centrally planned economies and the disequilibria

The paper provides a systematic analysis of the properties of large econometric macro models built for the Centrally Planned economies of the '70s and '80s. A specific typology of macro models is introduced, distinguishing between the demand and quasi-demand determined systems on the one hand and the supply and quasi-supply determined systems on the other, and also between complete and incomplete models specifying only one side of economic activities (i.e. generating either demand or supply). It is shown that, under the command type economy, the incomplete, fully supply determined systems prevailed, generating production and showing its allocation. The economic reforms of the '80s, which aimed at a slow transition towards market economies, brought about a tendency towards constructing complete quasi-supply determined systems (especially for Poland and the CSRS). Since, in principle, they were built for shortage economies, the model builders had to allow for unobservables (final and intermediate demand, capacity utilization) and, on the other hand, for an increasing role of the financial phenomena (including prices) and financial policy instruments. A summary of the applications of macro models in forecasting and policy simulations is provided and new tendencies associated with regaining economic equilibria and approaching the market mechanisms emerging in the period of transition are shown.     

Modelling wages in centrally planned economies: The case of Poland

The main idea developed in this paper is that rising excess demand for the labour force results in higher growth of wages over the ‘notional’ rate of growth. The rationale is that employees change their jobs searching for higher wages, and employers are willing to offer higher pay in order to get additional workers. This relationship is highly nonlinear, and can be regarded as an extension of the idea known as the Phillips curve to the area of ‘negative’ rate of unemployment. Additionally, one can observe that if the disequilibrium intensity in the labour market is small, its changes cause stronger reactions of wages in strategic branches than in the remaining sectors of the economy. It is similar to the situation of excess demand for labour. If there is a high rate of unemployment, reductions of wages affect more branches of secondary importance for the economy. The empirical investigation is based on Polish data covering the time period from 1964 through 1984. As excess demand for labour is unobservable, a proxy is used as an indicator of disequilibrium. It is introduced to the equation explaining the rate of growth of average wages, in addition to the rate of productivity growth of labour and the rate of inflation. Estimates are derived for 10 industry branches and sectors of the economy. The results confirm the initial hypothesis.     

A note on the aggregation of slack and shortage in centrally planned economies

This note attempts to identify the key methodological problems that remain unsolved in the controversy about the aggregation of slack and shortage in disequilibrium econometric models of centrally planned economies (CPEs). The procedure of ‘smoothing by aggregation’ implemented by Burkett (1988) is critically reviewed and found wanting, despite possible attribution to Kornai (1980) for justification. We argue that the procedure neglects the problems of resource immobility and hoarding that have prevailed in CPEs. Even from a neo-Keynesian perspective, it is at odds with a rigorous microeconomics of rationing that takes into full account the substitution and income effects of spillovers. One important issue is that saving may actually be reduced because of a tightening of the ration. These considerations throw serious doubt on the validity of the smooth trade-off between slack and shortage that forms the basis for econometric estimation and lead to concern that the Walrasian configuration cannot be identified from the estimation results.     

论计划经济与市场经济条件下的城镇治安

正确区分、认识和掌握计划经济与市场经济条件下城镇治安不同的特点,是做好当前城镇治安工作的前提和基础。文章从城镇治安“防控力”与“破坏力”、基本特点、主体职能任务、治安行政管理、公众参与动力及方式、群防群治力量、警民关系与警察形象等七方面比较了计划经济条件下和市场经济条件下城镇治安的差异。     

The development of visual and chemical methods for predicting the likelihood of obtaining a DNA profile from degraded bone samples

Gross morphology, histology and nitrogen content were examined in bone samples from individuals that had been buried for approximately 12 years in Kuwait and Iraq. The results indicate that the gross morphology and histology are useful indicators of DNA survival. Nitrogen content did not show a significant correlation with DNA preservation.