扎瓦希里：“基地”组织新首领

“基地”组织领导人本·拉丹今年5月1日被美军海豹突击队击毙。对于拉丹之死,国际社会普遍将其视为全球反恐斗争的一次标志性胜利,美国总统奥巴马也称其是“美在打击‘基地’组织的努力中,迄今为止取得的最为重要的成就”。但尤其是“基地”组织5月6日在互联网上发表声明证实其领导人拉丹已经死亡后,②人们关注更多的是其接班人问题。     

基地组织当前“建国”活动及其走向

国际社会正在认真审视当前基地组织渐进式开展的＂建国＂活动。该组织现阶段的＂国家观＂深植于伊斯兰教的原始教义,并在当代国际关系现实的基础上有所调整。基地组织的＂建国＂实践最先出现在也门和伊拉克—叙利亚交界地区并非偶然,与这些国家或所处地区长期的内战或政治冲突极有关联。美国中东战略的失衡与自相矛盾,为基地组织的壮大乃至＂建国＂起到了＂保驾护航＂的作用。＂建国＂活动也在组织、战术与思想等层面给基地组织造成了诸多难以化解的矛盾。     

“基地”组织袭击美国中情局驻阿富汗基地

2009年12月30日,美国中央情报局（CIA）设在阿富汗东部霍斯特省的“查普曼前进行动基地”遭自杀式爆炸袭击。31日,中情局局长莱昂·帕内塔证实,袭击导致包括该基地负责人在内的7名中情局特工死亡,6人受伤。多方证据显示,“基地”组织策划、     

伊拉克“基地”组织的外籍“圣战者”

美伊战争爆发后，伊拉克国内政治格局重新洗牌，什叶派迅速崛起，逊尼派地位骤降，双方矛盾和权益争斗日趋激烈。2004年10月，约旦籍的阿布·穆萨布·扎卡维在伊建立了激进反美组织——伊拉克“基地”组织（AQI），广泛招募“圣战者”，为其所用。在这批人中，数外籍“圣战者”作战经验丰富，向AQI提供大量资金，并构成伊自杀式袭击主体。他们不断掀起恐怖袭击浪潮，使伊教派冲突愈演愈烈，安全局势持续动荡。     

“基地”组织恐怖活动变化与也门反恐态势

2009年底以来,“基地”组织在也门的恐怖活动由长期隐性状态迅猛发展为显性状态,“基地”以也门为据点掀起了新一轮国际恐怖主义浪潮。其在战略目标、活动空间、恐怖手法等方面反映出“基地”实力消长的新变化,对“基地”在也门的活动趋势、国际反恐斗争等都将产生重大影响。     

“9·11”以来“东突”势力的新变化及其动因

"9·11事件"以来,"东突"势力中的极端恐怖组织日趋边缘化并出现分化。其中一部分组织"圣战化"倾向日益突出,其威胁仍在上升;另一些组织则与相对较为温和的"东突"分裂组织合流,加快整合进程;与此同时,"东突"势力主流实行策略调整,试图扭转劣势。由于与极端恐怖势力藕断丝连以及内部的权力斗争,"东突"的这一轮"转轨"努力成效有限。本文剖析了这些新动向及其原因,并在此基础上进一步分析了"东突"分裂势力的发展趋势,认为"东突"组织中"东伊运"等恐怖组织出现边缘化、"圣战化"趋势,而"世维会"的影响则呈不断扩大之势,有可能确立其在境外"东突"分裂势力中的主导地位。     

国际组织对“一带一路”建设的参与

国际组织是“一带一路”建设的重要的利益相关方.本文从地域、职能、参与程度等不同的层次,选取联合国、上合组织、世界贸易组织、欧盟、金砖国家领导人会晤和亚信会议等20余种国际组织,并对其参与“一带一路”建设的情况进行梳理和分析.研究发现,国际组织参与“一带一路”建设存在参与的程度和效率不一致;分布范围重叠度高,且海陆分布不均等问题.据此,文章提出突出重点、主次分明;区域协调、海陆并进;由点及面,稳中求进等对策来与国际组织更有效地共建“一带一路”.     

“伊拉克圣战基地组织”简介

今年6月7日,“伊拉克圣战基地组织”(Al-Qaeda in Iraq)头目阿布·穆萨卜·扎卡维(AbuMusab al-Zarqawi)在美军对伊拉克首都巴格达以北的巴古拜进行空袭时被炸身亡。约旦籍的扎卡维是穆斯林逊尼派的极端激进分子。伊战后,他领导的“伊拉克圣战基地组织”从解放伊斯兰土地、驱逐     

伊斯兰马格里布“基地”组织概况

正伊斯兰马格里布基地组织(Al-Qaeda in theIslamic Maghreb,以下简称北非分支)是基地组织在北非的分支机构,它活跃于阿尔及利亚、利比亚、马里等国,2012年初以来,北非分支趁北非乱局尤其是马里北部动乱之机在北非、西非大搞扩张,一度控制马里北部大片区域。2013年1月,法国出兵帮助马里反恐,北非分支迅速失去对马里重要城镇的控制,但是其实力未遭严重折损,退守马里边远山区以游击战、伏击战等手段继续与反恐部队展开周旋,同时北非分支还加紧向利比亚、尼日尔等国渗透蔓延,2013年以来在阿尔及利亚、尼日尔等国策动多起重大恐怖袭击,对地区与国际安全的威胁日增。     

非政府组织并非台湾“外交”的新空间

台湾当局在“外交”努力一再碰壁的情况下, 又开始利用非政府组织开拓“外交”新空 间, 不但就此提出了思路, 形成了指导机构, 还在美日俄等国不断活动, 制造“麻烦” , 但其谋求台独 的目的肯定会以失败而告终     

全球洗钱犯罪活动综述

洗钱问题不仅威胁着一国的金融、经济安全,而且日益演变成为国际恐怖分子筹资活动的手段,构成全球性一大公害。本文拟对全球洗钱问题的基本情况作简要介绍。     

全球洗钱与反洗钱斗争现状

洗钱最初是由贩毒发展而来,因此它被认为是贩毒的派生物。现代意义上的洗钱就是将赃款通过某种渠道转变成为无形的匿名财产,使赃款以合法的外表置于自己的实际控制之下。洗钱的核心就是创造一个资金是干净的合法假象。全球范围内的洗钱活动已成为继贩毒、军火走私之后触目惊心的又一国际公害。猖狂的洗钱行为,侵蚀了社会秩序,冲击了金融系统,扭曲了社会资源配置体系,对社会的影响是全面的。它不仅违犯法律,冲击影响社会生活道德秩序,而且还冲击社会经济和金融的正常运转,给社会造成深重的毒害。一、洗钱活动的分类洗钱活动是一种非常复杂的…     

全球化背景下洗钱犯罪活动揭密--《扼杀发展:全球经济中的洗钱活动》一书评介

洗钱对人们来说并不是一个新名词 ,它指的是将非法资金转换成合法资金或与合法资金相混合以模糊其来源、本质、归属的活动过程。但是 ,近些年各国不断完善法律制度并加大打击力度 ,迫使犯罪分子不得不花更大力气想尽办法掩盖黑钱 ;而科技进步和经济全球化在为世界经济社会发展带来了前所未有机会的同时 ,也为洗钱活动提供了更现代化的手段和更广阔的活动空间 ,从而使得国际洗钱活动也变得愈加隐秘起来。英国社会市场基金会后集体主义研究中心曾专门举行一次研讨会 ,并在此基础上 ,阿兰·琼斯、巴里·里德等共同编辑并于 2 0 0 0年出版了《扼…     

The Things Negotiators Do With Money

Deal-making negotiations, in the minds of most people, center on theamount of money that is involved in a transaction. However, the timing ofa money transfer, the different methods of payment, and the addition ofother parties to a negotiation are all factors that sometimes are just asimportant as the amount of the transaction. The author uses case examplesfrom a variety of recent negotiations to illustrate some of the ways thatthe who, when, and how of a deal can have significant impact on a negotiationprocess.     

Negotiating for Money: Adding a Dose of Reality to Classroom Negotiations

Negotiation and conflict management courses have become increasingly common in business schools around the world. Frequently, these courses employ role plays and simulations to encourage students to try new strategies, tactics, techniques, and behaviors. While these simulations generally are designed to elicit realistic negotiation dynamics, they often lack the full emotional tension inherent in actual negotiations. One possible reason for this reduced tension is that no tangible resources, such as money, are at stake. This article describes an experiment in which MBA students paid a player's fee at the beginning of a negotiation course, and in which each negotiation exercise had an actual dollar value at risk. The article reports some results from this experiment and offers suggestions for instructors who might seek to add a player's fee to their own courses. In general, most students found the experience valuable, as it provided performance benchmarks while focusing their attention more sharply on risks and returns.     

The Euro and the European Demos: Money and Community beyond the Nation-state

Money represents a form of trust among the members of a community. They share a belief that certain symbolic tokens constitute real value. Sceptics frequently point out that the euro area does not have the characteristics of a community. In particular they view the euro as money without a demos. According to this sceptical view, then, the euro is backed by an insufficient level of solidarity and suffers from a deficit of legitimacy. This article identifies the main flaws and contradictions of the no-demos theory. Most importantly, no-demos theory suffers from the fundamental misconception that political community and democracy are possible only in the nation-state. This conceptualisation of community represents a zero-sum understanding of community that cannot capture the dynamic interaction of multiple communities as well as complex and overlapping identities. In addition, no-demos theory is trapped in an internal contradiction. In order for democracy to be possible among the members of a community, that membership in the community is given and rests on pre-democratic criteria. I argue in this article that we need to accept the notion of disaggregated communities and should drop the concept of a unified and fully sovereign demos altogether. Moreover, under conditions in which the gap between sovereignty and authority continues to grow, European Monetary Union is actually a more democratic form of governance than the pre-Maastricht monetary regime in Europe.     

论俄罗斯货币信贷政策及影响

随着俄罗斯宏观经济形势趋于好转,货币信贷领域也出现了很多积极的变化.很多指标显示,近年来俄罗斯货币形势基本稳定,为经济持续增长创造了较为宽松的金融环境.俄罗斯货币信贷政策的目标以控制通货膨胀为主,兼顾卢布汇率的稳定.俄货币当局近年来多次调整法定准备金率和中央银行的再贴现率,并采取了控制通货膨胀和卢布升值的措施,取得了一些成效.从总体上看,俄罗斯货币信贷政策对宏观经济具有稳定和促进的作用,但对投资等经济行为的影响仍有待提高.     

《泉志》所录丁、前黎朝铜钱与越南早期货币史的若干问题

中越两国古代历史文化关系极为密切,从以铸币制度为代表的货币文化也可窥其一斑。汉唐间千余年间越南受中国封建王朝的统治,长期使用中国铸币。越南丁朝(968～980年)和前黎朝(980～1009年)建立后,     

How Americans Think About Trade: Reconciling Conflicts Among Money, Power, and Principles

Trade has again emerged as a controversial issue in America, yet we know little about the ideas that guide American thinking on these questions. By combining traditional survey methods with experimental manipulation of problem content, this study explores the ideational landscape among elite Americans and pays particular attention to how elite Americans combine their ideas about commerce with their ideas about national security and social justice. We find that most American leaders think like intuitive neoclassical economists and that only a minority think along intuitive neorealist or Rawlsian lines. Among the mass public, in contrast, a majority make judgments like intuitive neorealists and intuitive Rawlsians. Although elite respondents see international institutions as promising vehicles in principle, in practice they favor exploiting America's advantage in bilateral bargaining power over granting authority to the World Trade Organization. The distribution of these ideas in America is not arrayed neatly along traditional ideological divisions. To understand the ideational landscape, it is necessary to identify how distinctive mentaal models—mercantilist, neorealist, egalitarian, and neoclassical economic—sensitize or desensitize people to particular aspects of geopolitical problems, an approach we call cognitive interactionism.