The story of two administrative states: state capacity in Hong Kong and Singapore

Abstract

Hong Kong and Singapore are both typical administrative states with an efficient administration and a vibrant market, which had achieved rapid economic growth in the past decades. This article examines the trajectory of their state capacity, highlighting recent problems and challenges. Based on a conceptual framework that captures and links up four dimensions – namely polity, bureaucracy, economy and civil society – their commonalities and differences in response are discussed. Their experience should be of particular relevance to transitional authoritarian states in Asia such as China, which faces similar challenges to reform in the arenas of politics, administration, economics and society.     

Modeling unemployment volatility in America,Europe and Asia

Many government policies are being implemented to stabilize the economy. One of the policies necessary to achieve stabilization is full employment. However, the growth rate of unemployment in many countries is evident and seems more volatile in recent years. To counterattack the unemployment problem, the volatility of the growth rate of unemployment has to be known in order to launch appropriate policies correctly. Therefore, conditional volatility models are employed to estimate the volatility with symmetric and asymmetric effects. The monthly data on unemployment is downloaded to calculate the rate of change. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the QMLE are guaranteed by the moment conditions. The GARCH model shows that a shock to the growth rate of unemployment in most cases has long-run persistence, but relatively less for short-run persistence. The G JR model reports the asymmetric effects in 10 of 25 countries. The EGARCH model illustrates asymmetric effects in 12 of 25 countries, while 3 of them show leverage. VaR forecasts and counts of number of violations suggest that the univariate conditional models are practicable in most countries, and the G JR model seems to be preferable in cases with a large difference in the number of violations.     

Globalization and the future of the nation state

This article addresses the issue of whether the nation state has a future as a major locus of governance in an increasingly ‘globalized’ economic and social system. It begins by considering the development of the sovereign state and argues that international agreements between states were important in establishing the power of the state over society. It goes on to consider the changing capacities of the state in the modern world. Extreme versions of the 'globalization' thesis are then challenged, and it is argued that national-level economic processes remain central and that the international economy is far from ungovernable. Major nation states have a pivotal role to play in creating and sustaining such governance. However, their role is less than as autonomous national macro-economic managers, than as agencies that are representative of their populations and sources of legitimacy for new forms of governance. The central function of the nation state is that of distributing and rendering accountable powers of governance, upwards towards international agencies and trade blocs like the European Union, and downwards towards regional and other sub-national agencies of economic co-ordination and regulation.     

巨灾风险防范的中国范式

中国近年应对包括1998年洪水,2003年SARS,2008南方低温雨雪冰冻和汶川地震等巨灾的实践申,充分发挥了国家政治制度在应对巨灾时的特殊功能,即：“举国应对巨灾”的范式。在这一范式中,各级政府的坚强指挥起到了核心作用;军队、武警及公安等组成的应急武装力量起到了关键作用;改革开放30年形成的较强国力起到了保障作用;广大群泉及各类社会力量的积极参与起到了推动作用;各类媒体的积极舆论引导起到了凝聚力量的作用。我们称这一“举国应对巨灾”范式为“巨灾风险防范的中国范式”。在这一范式中,“五个作用”的整合展示了中国综合灾害风险防范的结构与功能体系的优化,从而体现了巨灾风险防范的高效率,这一点对一些西方国家防范巨灾风险有借鉴价值。然而,在这一范式中,防范巨灾风险的效益仍需要做全面地改进。借鉴一些国家建立的巨灾风险转移的经验,发展巨灾保险与再保险业务;提高各类基础设施的设防水平和生态系统服务能力;提高全民防范巨灾风险的意识和掌握基本逃生技能;完善巨灾风险防范的预案和信息集成网络及指挥平台等,可全面提高防范巨灾风险的资源利用效益．     

Re-Stating the problem of regulation and re-regulating the local state

In recent years a substantial body of literature has grown up around the application of the theorectical insights of regulation theory to the evolution of patterns of local governance and the structures of the local state (Geddes 1988: Goodwin, Duncan and Halford 1993; Painter 1991: Peck and Tickell 1992: Stocker 1989 inter alia). These new patterns of local governance are characteristically seen to be associated with the replacement of the formallly accountable, democracitcally elected structures of local government with a plethora of unaccountable and non-elected agencies involving public-private sector ‘part-nership’, Within this literature the emergence of new patterns of local governance is accounted for in terms of a response to the crisis of Fordism. In this article it is argued that regulation theory's principal analytical strength lies in its analysis of the internal contradictions and dynamics of modes of regulation, but that it has thus far failed to develop an adequate explanation of the transition between modes. As a consequence, existing accounts of the emergence of new modes of local governance couched in terms of the transition from Fordism to post-Fordism (or after-Fjordism) have tended to fail to reveal the complex mechanisms and processes linking global economic dynamics and the transformation of the structures of the national and local state. By interrogating the concept of ‘crisis’ in regulation theory and by considering the processing of the failures of Foprdism through the state at national and local level as a condition of any response to crisis, it is hoped to begin to develop a theory of the transition between modes of regulation. Such a theory, as it is hoped to demonstrate, might provide the basis for a more nuanced understanding of the complex process and mechanism resulting in the transformation of political and economic structures at the local level.     

Against Privatization in China: A Historical and Empirical Argument

Reform in China’s urban public sector has been so contentious that the nature, function, validity and viability of state firms require clarifications. First of a two-part critique, this essay assesses the outcomes and wider consequences of China’s largely free wheeling process of privatization as compared to the rationale claimed for its instigation. By identifying the ideological and political forces behind that process, the essay further seeks to explain the erosion of public policy capacities pivotal for social defence in market globalization, thereby demonstrating the need to reorient the reform. Losing the opportunity to reinvigorate a sizable and strong state sector capable of healthy interactions with other sectors is shown to be especially damaging in developing and transitional societies, which in turn negatively impacts both global economy and ecology.     

Good governance and differentiated integration: Graded membership in the European Union

The study of European integration has traditionally focused on organisational growth: the deepening and widening of the European Union (EU). By contrast, this article analyses organisational differentiation, a process in which states refuse, or are being refused, full integration but find value in establishing in‐between grades of membership. It describes how the EU's system of graded membership has developed, and it explains the positioning of states in this system. The core countries of the EU set a standard of ‘good governance’. The closer European countries are to this standard, the closer their membership grade is to the core. Some countries fall short of this standard and are refused further integration by the core: their membership grade increases with better governance. Other countries refuse further integration because they outperform the standards of the core countries: their membership grade decreases as governance improves. These conjectures are corroborated in a panel analysis of European countries.     

Civil society participation in global governance: Insights from climate politics

A rather unique feature of global climate negotiations is that most governments allow representatives of civil society organisations to be part of their national delegation. It remains unclear, however, why states grant such access in the first place. While there are likely to be benefits from formally including civil society, there are also substantial costs stemming from constraints on sovereignty. In light of this tradeoff, this article argues for a ‘contagion’ effect that explains this phenomenon besides domestic determinants. In particular, states, which are more central to the broader network of global governance, are more likely to be informed of and influenced by other states' actions and policies toward civil society. In turn, more central governments are likely to include civil society actors if other governments do so as well. This argument is tested with data on the participation of civil society organisations in national delegations to global climate negotiations between 1995 and 2005. To further uncover the underlying mechanisms, the article also provides an analysis of survey data collected at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations in Durban in 2011.     

Adaptive management and adaptive governance in the everglades ecosystem

The Everglades is an intensively managed ecosystem where control of the water has allowed agricultural, urban and economic development, while struggling to meet biodiversity conservation goals. The over 100 year history of control began in response to a disastrous series of floods and droughts followed by environmental crises at an ecosystem scale. Each of these events precipitated technological fixes that extended control of water resources. Institutional structures have been continually reorganized over the last century to meet shifting social objectives, the latest of which is ecosystem restoration. However, the basic response, which employs engineering and technological solutions, is a type of social trap, where governmental mandates, planning-based paradigms and vested interests all interact to inhibit the resolution of chronic environmental issues. Experience from other resource systems indicates that in such an inherently complex system wrought with multiple uncertainties, restoration must be discovered through experimentation and learning embraced by adaptive management. Though minimal steps towards adaptive management have been made, we argue that adaptive forms of experimentation and governance are needed to resolve chronic resource issues and achieve restoration goals.     

实验主义治理：公共治理的一个新路径

实验主义治理秉持以现实问题为导向和以经验证据为支撑的实证理念和循证品格,在纵向放权的基础上通过目标设置、差异探索、治理评估、政策迭代和政策扩散等机制探寻政策改进和治理优化的可行路径。作为一种新的治理模式,它的兴起是为了应对治理复杂性的挑战、弥补科层式治理的不足和探寻治理现代化的路径等。实验主义治理模式注重纵向放权、公众参与和多元协作,改善了公共治理主体间的关系,提升了治理的参与性、科学性和有效性,是科层式治理模式的重要补充。但在实践中,实验主义治理也面临着法治困境、创新困境和合作困境等现实难题。在我国推进治理体系与治理能力现代化的背景下,应当协调好实验主义治理中创新与法治的内在张力,完善治理体制与机制,提升实验主义治理的实践效能,从而使其在全面深化改革进程中发挥更大的作用。     

Institutional checks and corruption: The effect of formal agenda access on governance

Legislative checks give whoever wields them influence over policy making. It is argued in this article that this influence implies the ability not only to affect legislative content, but also to direct public resources toward private ends. Rational politicians should use access to checks to make themselves better off – for example, by biasing policy toward private interests or creating opportunities to draw directly from the public till. Disincentives exist only to the extent that those able to observe or block corruption do not themselves benefit from it. Political opponents thus can use checks to stymie each other, but legislative checks controlled by political allies create conditions for collusion and corruption. Testing this claim against data from a sample of 84 countries, the results presented in this article show strong support for the hypothesised relationship between institutional checks and corruption.     

Citizens’ Perceptions of Governance in Rural and Urban China

This article presents three main findings from a purposive stratified survey of urban and rural residents. First, Chinese citizens “disaggregate” the state with high levels of satisfaction for Central government that fall dramatically as government gets closer to the people. Satisfaction levels are noticeably lower for those in rural China. Second, attitudes about the way policy is implemented by local governments raise concerns. Irrespective of place of residence, respondents feel that when implementing policy local officials and governments are mainly concerned with their own interests, are more receptive to the views of their superiors rather than those of ordinary people, favor those with money, and are formalistic in implementing policy rather than dealing with actual problems. Third, the areas of work that citizens would really like government to concentrate on are job creation and providing basic guarantees to protect against the shocks of the transition to a market economy. Tony Saich is the Daewoo Professor of International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University and Director of the Harvard University Asia Center. His recent research focuses on the development of social policy in China, particularly on the provision of public goods by local governments. His publications include Governance and Politics of China by Palgrave and edited volumes on Financial Sector Reform in China (with Yasheng Huang and Edward Steinfeld) and AIDS and Social Policy in China (with Joan Kaufman and Arthur Kleinman both by Harvard University Asia Center. He would like to thank Edward Cunningham for his great help in preparing this article. He also wants to thank Victor Yuan (Horizon Market Research Company) for his tremendous help in designing the survey and implementing it. In addition, I would like to thank Anita Chan, Martin King Whyte and two anonymous reviewers for their extremely helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

Tackling Corruption at its Source: The National Corruption Prevention Bureau

In Spring 2007 as part of its ongoing anticorruption efforts, the PRC announced the establishment of a new organization called the “National Corruption Prevention Bureau” (NCPB). The article first examines the origins of the NCPB and its position in the current Chinese anticorruption regime. The NCPB will concentrate primarily on information collection and coordination work. Given these goals, This article examines the organization’s potential for improving work in three areas related to information collection and coordination; increased oversight of the private sector, improving information quality and dissemination, and strengthening routine anticorruption activities. The final section examines potential problems that will likely limit the ability of this new organization to improve anticorruption work, such as the possibility of increasing complexity within the anticorruption system, and the NCPB’s limited independence from the agencies it seeks to coordinate.

The emergence of the entrepreneurial state in contemporary China

As market reform has progressed in China, state bureaux have adapted and become entrepreneurial. This contradicts expectations that states will either simply retreat in the face of encroaching markets to play a minimal role in the economy, or obstruct market‐oriented change through bureaucratic conservatism or rent‐seeking. This paper describes the state entrepreneurialism that has appeared in the Chinese city of Tianjin in the early 1990s and explains its emergence as the consequence of both market‐induced structural transformation and the resultant changing incentives and demands on officials. It proposes the ‘entrepreneurial state’ as a model of state adaptation to marketization and assesses its implications for both our conception of the developmental state and for anticipation of rent‐seeking and resistance to market reform.     

Conceptualizing Islamic banking and finance: a comparison of its development and governance in Malaysia and Singapore

In response to the limited engagement with critical social science concerning the governance of Islamic banking and finance (IBF), this paper compares and conceptualizes the development and governance of IBF in Malaysia and Singapore. We argue that IBF governance in Malaysia and Singapore can be distinguished on the basis of ethnic politics, moral suasion, product demand, product innovation, and the character of state practices. Concerning the latter, we contend that the political economy of both countries can be characterized as broadly involving a ‘neoliberal-developmentalism’, but we nuance this by positing a transition in Malaysia from a ‘semi-developmentalism’ in the 1980s to what we call an ‘Islamic and internationalising ordoliberalism’ beginning in the 2000s. In turn, the governance of IBF in Singapore involves a combination of neoliberal developmentalism, which nonetheless also entails some form of Islamic ordoliberalism.     

坚持科学执政、民主执政、依法执政——兼论我国社会主义民主政治建设问题

坚持科学执政、民主执政、依法执政,是发展社会主义民主政治的必然要求和必要条件,也是推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的关键所在。为此,要把党的领导方式和执政方式嵌入到社会主义民主和法治的制度框架之中,把科学执政、民主执政、依法执政有机统一起来,把“为人民执政”和“靠人民执政”有机统一起来。其前提是澄清我国民主政治建设的一些重大理论和实践问题,在知行合一的前提下不失时机地推进社会主义民主政治建设。     

Religious policies in post-totalitarian China: Maintaining political monopoly over a reviving society

In the post-Mao era China’s society and religion are both becoming increasingly pluralistic. State policies toward religion are also evolving. Views of state-society relations as “totalitarian” exaggerate the state’s control; the civil-society approach overestimates society’s autonomy. This paper explains the state’s religious policies in terms of a “post-totalitarian” frame of reference. Religious organizations and the Communist Party share a reliance on ideology and organization to operate and survive, making them potential rivals. As a shrewd monopolist of organizational and ideological instruments, the state seeks to reduce the threat posed by religion, adopting differentiated strategies toward them as they revive. The state co-opts, tolerates, deters, restricts, or suppresses different religions or sects, according to each specific religion’s organizational strength, doctrine, and compliance with state authority. The state is thus able to prevent the rise of large, independent, and organized religious groups while leaving considerable space for religious activity. Dr. H. H. Lai is a faculty member the National University of Singapore who has researched on China’s state-society relations. The author would like to thank three anonymous reviewers for their comments and Mr. Kelly for his thorough and helpful copy editing.     

从“救济”到“治理手段”？——当前农村低保政策的实践分析：以河南F县C镇为例

作为国家推行的一项福利政策,农村低保要实现对农村贫困人群的救助。然而,在现实中,低保政策经历了从“绝对贫困”到“相对贫困”、从以户为单位到以人为单位的扭曲和变通,以至低保政策在某种程度上成为了基层政权的一种治理手段,从而背离了政策的本意。事实上,低保政策执行中出现的种种问题既是监管力度不够及制度建设不到位所导致,更与税费改革后乡村组织的治理困境密切关联。在这个意义上,基层政权的治理状况既是保障低保政策能否顺畅执行的根本,也是一个现代国家基本治理能力强弱的重要体现。     

新中国70年机关事务治理的制度变迁:一项历史制度主义的考察

机关事务治理制度是国家治理体系的一项重要内容,有机融汇于新中国成立70年来的历史叙事之中。如何理解我国机关事务治理制度的历史变迁,是影响国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的一个重要命题。我国的机关事务治理从以"后勤服务"为主要表现形态的传统机关事务管理向以"运行保障"为主要表现形态的现代机关事务治理转型,经历了雏形渐成、改革发展、深化改革三次重大的制度变迁。基于历史制度主义的分析范式,机关事务治理制度变迁过程中制度背景、政治变量、路径依赖和关键节点的"混合体"模式深刻影响着机关事务治理制度的变迁历程,国家治理范式下的政治、经济、文化、社会因素则是制度变迁的动力所在。展望未来,机关事务治理现代化要正视新时代赋予的新要求,加强制度创新消解路径依赖逆向张力,推进机关事务治理职能法定化,完善多元协同的机关事务治理模式,从而推进新时代机关事务工作高质量发展。     

Disposable income,unemployment, inflation and state spending in a dynamic political-economic model

This paper formulates a medium-term macroeconomic model of disposable income, unemployment, inflation and state spending, proposes a theory of qualitative choice to explain electoral popularity in terms of these variables and develops three approaches to the formulation of political-economic policy. The first approach is static, sets the tax rate to reconcile the interests of various pressure groups and yields a political trade-off between the private and public sector. The second approach relies on maximizing the probability of winning the next election and gives rise to a political business cycle unless the electorate votes strategically. The implications of crowding out of private investment under alternative monetary rules, autonomous behaviour of the state bureaucracy and tax-indexation for the political business cycle are also examined. The third approach analyzes the objective of maximizing the uninterrupted length in office. It yields a short-run political cycle superimposed on a longer cycle.