The illegal parrot trade: a literature review

Parrots are amongst the most beautiful and intelligent bird species in the world. They have been coveted as pets for centuries, particularly in the neo-tropics where they are heavily populated. Unfortunately, this has led to dramatic increases in parrot poaching over the last few decades, making parrots the most threatened bird species in the world. Despite laws against parrot poaching throughout the neo-tropics, the illegal trade continues while parrot populations further decline. This article reviews the literature on the players in the illegal parrot trade (i.e. poachers, itinerant fences, and market sellers), how poaching is largely committed, and which species are more at risk of becoming poached.     

Risky Facilities: Crime Radiators or Crime Absorbers? A Comparison of Internal and External Levels of Theft

Objectives

To undertake the first exploration of the nature of the relationship between internal crime (those that happen within facilities) and external crime (those occurring outside but in the nearby locale of facilities). The following questions are addressed. Do those localities that suffer high volumes of crime internally within their facilities also suffer high levels of crime in their immediate external environment? How is this influenced by the distribution of internal theft across facilities? What are the likely mechanisms for any relationship found?

Methods

Spatial regression is used to explore these relationships using data for 30,144 incidents of theft from a Metropolitan area of the UK arranged into small 50 × 50 m grid squares. Variables used in the analysis include counts of external and internal theft, counts of victimized and ‘risky’ facilities, indicators of land-use and a proxy for the on-street population.

Results

There is found to be a strong positive relationship between internal and external theft that appears to be strengthened by the existence of facilities suffering particularly high crime volumes. Results suggest that internal theft problems precede external ones and that the physical concentration of chronically risky facilities is a particularly strong predictor of external theft problems.

Conclusions

An argument is made that risky facilities act as crime ‘radiators’, causing crime in the immediate environment as well as internally. This has implications for crime prevention policy in terms of facility placement and management.     

Early prevention of life-course personal and property violence: a 19-year follow-up of the Montreal Longitudinal-Experimental Study (MLES)

Objectives

This study assessed the impact of a multi-component prevention program on personal and property violence across three developmental periods (early adolescence, mid-adolescence and late adolescence/early adulthood).

Methods

The preventive intervention targeted disruptive kindergarten boys from low socioeconomic status families when they were 7 through 9 years of age. A randomized control trial was conducted to assess the impact of the preventive intervention relative to a control group.

Results

Two different approaches to data analysis were adopted: an intention-to-treat (ITT) approach and an instrumental variable (IV) approach. Results from the ITT analysis showed that the level of property violence for the intervention group was persistently lower across the three developmental periods compared to the control group. However, the intervention group did not differ from the control group on personal violence throughout adolescence and early adulthood. Results from the IV analysis generally confirmed these findings.

Conclusions

The discussion focuses on the differential effects of the prevention program on personal versus property violence.     

Challenges of conducting field experiments in correctional settings: boot camp prison study as an example

Objectives

The challenges of conducting a field experiment in a correctional setting.

Methods

This paper discusses the issues related to planning, design, and completion of a randomized control study of a correctional boot camp including the difficulties confronted and how these were or were not overcome.

Results

At the beginning, correctional administrators were interested in and supportive of the study and this greatly facilitated our initial work. However, as described in this paper, during the course of the research obstacles and difficulties arose. Using the boot camp experiment as an example, we review the trials and tribulations of trying to do a field experiment in corrections. The importance of collecting quantitative and qualitative in order to understand the experiences of both the control and experimental groups is emphasized, as is the need to examine the theoretical mechanisms hypothesized to lead to changes in outcomes.

Conclusion

Some of the challenges confronted in this randomized control trial are those facing anyone attempting to conduct a field experiment, others relate to the particular issues faced by those who are conducting experiments in correctional settings. The paper concludes with a discussion of the issues confronting researchers who are doing field experiments in corrections.     

Assessing programs designed to improve outcomes for children exposed to violence: Results from nine randomized controlled trials

Objectives

The study tests whether participation in interventions offered by a subset of sites from the National Safe Start Promising Approaches for Children Exposed to Violence initiative improved outcomes for children relative to controls.

Methods

The study pools data from the nine Safe Start sites that randomized families to intervention and control groups, using a within-site block randomization strategy based on child age at baseline. Caregiver-reported outcomes, assessed at baseline, 6 and 12 months, included caregiver personal problems, caregiver resource problems, parenting stress, child and caregiver victimization, child trauma symptoms, child behavior problems, and social-emotional competence.

Results

Results revealed no measurable intervention impact in intent-to-treat analyses at either 6- or 12-month post-baseline. In 6-month as-treated analyses, a medium to high intervention dose was associated with improvement on two measures of child social-emotional competence: cooperation and assertion. Overall, there is no reliable evidence of significant site-to-site effect variability, even in the two cases of significant intervention effect.

Conclusions

Since families in both the intervention and control groups received some degree of case management and both groups improved over time, it may be advantageous to explore the potential impacts of crisis and case management separately from mental health interventions. It may be that, on average, children in families whose basic needs are being attended to improve substantially on their own.     

Understanding parrot trafficking between illicit markets in Bolivia: an application of the CRAVED model

The CRAVED model has been used to understand theft variation in a whole host of hot products, including wildlife. Past research, however, has only applied the model at either the theft or illicit market stage to understand why particular products are stolen in high numbers. The CRAVED model has yet to be applied to the trafficking stage of hot products smuggled between illicit markets and, therefore, its applicability at this particular stage remains unknown. Using secondary data from the Los Pozos wildlife market in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, this study applies the CRAVED model to explain why parrot species are trafficked between illicit markets in Bolivia. This research finds that species that are more “available” and less “valuable” are more likely to be trafficked between illicit markets, suggesting that variation at the trafficking stage of the parrot trade can be explained by nearly the same CRAVED concepts as they do at the poaching stage. This study also finds that one-quarter of parrots in the Los Pozos market are trafficked to other cities, of which 99% are to the city of Cochabamba. These findings suggest that shutting down illicit markets and patrolling major roadways between cities can substantially reduce the illegal parrot trade.     

Residential Mobility and Delinquency Revisited: Causation or Selection?

Objectives

To assess the role of selection in the observed association between residential mobility and delinquency among adolescents.

Methods

This study draws on a sample of adolescents from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). We first examine whether adjusting regression models for several well-established determinants of moving attenuates the association between mobility and delinquency. We then employ propensity score methods to estimate the effect of residential mobility on delinquency among a sub-sample of movers and non-movers who had similar likelihoods of moving.

Results

The association between mobility and delinquency is significant and positive in regression models, although it is somewhat attenuated by additional control variables that are rarely considered in prior work. However, the distribution of mobility determinants differs substantially across movers and non-movers, potentially biasing these estimates. After covariate balance is achieved using a propensity score approach, we observe no differences in delinquency between groups.

Conclusions

Results suggest that certain adolescents are more likely to move than others, explaining the observed association between mobility and delinquency. Future research should therefore be mindful of selection when trying to account for differential outcomes between mobile and non-mobile adolescents.     

Organized crime or crime that is organized? The parrot trade in the neotropics

The illegal wildlife trade is one of the most profitable illegal industries in the world, only behind the trafficking of drugs, guns, and humans. Because of the relative ease in poaching wildlife combined with the possibility of high profit margins, many assume that organized crime is heavily linked to the trade. One group of species that is poached, trafficked and sold in illicit markets throughout the world are parrots. While some have claimed organized crime groups are involved in the trade, parrot experts contend there is no evidence of organized crime being involved. The purpose of this paper is to examine the structural organization of the illegal parrot trade in the neotropics to determine if the trade is driven by organized crime or if it is a simply a crime that is organized. The following study is based on 38 interviews with parrot poachers, middlemen, wildlife market sellers, and others knowledgeable on the trade in multiple cities within Bolivia and Peru to better understand the organization of the trade. The results garnered from these interviews do not support the notion that organized crime is involved in the illegal parrot trade in either country. The vast majority of participants are freelance operators where there appears to be no formal organization between or amongst those operating in the parrot trade. Implications of findings are discussed.     

Adverse Neighborhood Conditions and Sanction Risk Perceptions: Using SEM to Examine Direct and Indirect Effects

Objectives

The present study examines how individuals’ sanction risk perceptions are shaped by neighborhood context.

Methods

Using structural equation modeling on data from waves 6 and 7 of the National Youth Survey, we assess the direct and indirect relationships between adverse neighborhood conditions and two dimensions of sanction risk perceptions: the certainty of punishment and perceived shame. In addition, the role of shame as a mediator between neighborhood context and certainty of punishment is also investigated.

Results

The results indicate that adverse neighborhood conditions indirectly affect both forms of sanction risk perceptions, and additional results show that perceived shame fully mediates the effect of neighborhood conditions on perceptions of the certainty of punishment.

Conclusions

The perceptual deterrence/rational choice perspective will need to be revised to accommodate more explicitly the role of neighborhood context in shaping sanction risk perceptions.     

The power of policing partnerships: sustaining the gains

Objectives

Third Party Policing (TPP) involves partnerships between police and third parties where the legal powers of third parties are harnessed to prevent or control crime problems. This paper explores the characteristics and mechanisms of TPP as a crime control strategy, focusing on how the partnership approach in policing can help sustain crime control gains over the long run. Using the ABILITY Truancy Trial as an example, I examine how policing can contribute to long-term social change for high-risk young people living in poor-performing school districts and high-risk communities.

Methods

The ABILITY Trial includes 102 young truants randomly allocated to a control (business-as-usual) or an experimental condition. The experimental condition activates the key theoretical components of Third Party Policing (TPP): a partnership between police and participating schools that activates and escalates (where needed) jurisdictional truanting laws (the legal lever).

Results

The paper presents a theoretical discussion of TPP and uses the ABILITY Trial to highlight the way TPP works in practice. Baseline data are presented for the ABILITY Trial. Outcome results are not presented.

Conclusions

Third Party Policing partnerships rest on the capacity of police to build relationships with third parties who have a stake in the crime problem, who possess responsive regulation legal levers, and who have a clear mandate to offer long-term solutions and help sustain the crime control gains. Partnerships, I argue, offer long-term solutions for police because they activate latent mechanisms, building the capacity for third parties to both maintain short-term gains and sustain the crime control gains beyond the lifespan of the initial police intervention.     

A Sensitivity Analysis of Egocentric Measures of Peer Delinquency to Latent Homophily: A Research Note

Objectives

Egocentric measures of peer delinquency, obtained through a census of a social network, have become the preferred operationalization for examining the relationships between social influence and delinquency. Studies regressing ego’s delinquency on the delinquency of nominated friend/s (i.e. alter/s) conclude that a statistically significant coefficient provides evidence of social influence. However, the inferences drawn from these studies may be biased by the introduction of artificial statistical dependence as a consequence of using social network data in a regression framework. Recent work (Shalizi and Thomas Sociol Methods Res 40:211–239, 2011) shows that latent homophily, or unmeasured confounding of observables, may lead to nonzero estimates of social influence, even if there is no causal significance. To examine this possibility, sensitivity analyses have been created (e.g. VanderWeele and Arah Epidemiology 22:42–52, 2011; VanderWeele Sociol Methods Res 40:240–255, 2011) to determine the robustness of an estimated coefficient to latent homophily.

Methods

In this research note, I examine the robustness of estimates for social influence from two articles (Haynie Am J Sociol 106:1013–1057, 2001; Meldrum et al. J Res Crime Delinq 46:353–376, 2009) using egocentric measures of peer delinquency.

Results

Findings indicate that for large, precise point estimates, highly improbable conditions are needed to explain away the effects of social influence. However, less precise point estimates (i.e. large standard errors) are more sensitive to latent homophily.

Conclusions

The analyses indicate that studies using egocentric measures should conduct sensitivity tests, particularly when the estimated effect is weak and/or has a relatively large standard error. Scripts written in the free programming language R (R Core Team R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, 2012) are provided for researchers to conduct such analyses.     

Sustainability of the effects of multisystemic therapy for juvenile delinquents in The Netherlands: effects on delinquency and recidivism

Objectives

The present study focused on the sustainability of the effects of Multisystemic Therapy (MST) on delinquency and recidivism.

Methods

A sample of 256 juveniles with severe and persistent antisocial behavior were randomly assigned to MST (147) and Treatment As Usual (TAU) (109) condition. Pre-test assessment took place before the start of MST/control group treatment. Post-test assessment took place at 6 months after termination of the program. Delinquency (parent and adolescent reported) was assessed 6 months after termination of the treatment. Official judicial data were collected to assess recidivism, with a mean length of follow-up of 3.06 years. ANCOVAs and survival analyses were used to test the effectiveness of MST.

Results

The multi-informant data showed that MST is effective in diminishing delinquent behavior as reported by adolescents and parents, with d’s larger than at post-test assessment immediately after ending of the intervention. The official judicial data, however, suggest that there are no differences between MST and TAU in recidivism. Few and inconsistent moderator effects were found.

Conclusions

According to parent and adolescent reports, the beneficial effects of MST were sustained at the follow-up. This was not supported by official data. These results stress the importance of using multi-informant data on delinquency, as each source of information has its own advantages and disadvantages.     

Assessing the Effectiveness of Correctional Sanctions

Objectives

Despite the dramatic expansion of the US correctional system in recent decades, little is known about the relative effectiveness of commonly used sanctions on recidivism. The goal of this paper is to address this research gap, and systematically examine the relative impacts on recidivism of four main types of sanctions: probation, intensive probation, jail, and prison.

Methods

Data on convicted felons in Florida were analyzed and propensity score matching analyses were used to estimate relative effects of each sanction type on 3-year reconviction rates.

Results

Estimated effects suggest that less severe sanctions are more likely to reduce recidivism.

Conclusions

The findings raise questions about the effectiveness of tougher sanctioning policies for reducing future criminal behavior. Implications for future research, theory, and policy are also discussed.     

Building group capacity for problem solving and police–community partnerships through survey feedback and training: a randomized control trial within Chicago’s community policing program

Objectives

To examine whether group capacity for problem solving and partnership building could be enhanced at police–community meetings by providing the results from community surveys and training for group facilitators.

Methods

A randomized control trial was conducted in 51 police beats in Chicago’s community policing program, CAPS. Unlike control beats, results from web-based community surveys were provided at beat meetings in the feedback and training beats, with facilitators in training beats also receiving training and exercises to guide problem solving about survey results. Analysis included OLS and logistic regression of data from questionnaires administered to police and resident participants, as well as observations at beat meetings, which measured resident capacity, attitudes about the police–community partnership, and problem-solving activities.

Results

Support for hypothesized effects was found with greater resident confidence in their ability to achieve outcomes and solve local problems, as well as officers viewing their relationships with residents at beat meetings more favorably. Effects, however, were inconsistent and limited to the feedback group. While additional training and support provided in training beats indicated fuller engagement in problem solving, possible negative effects on attitudes were observed.

Conclusions

Failure to find more effects is discussed in terms of implementation and resistance. Officer resistance to and a shift in organizational priorities away from community policing worked against achieving full program implementation. The beat meeting context provided a traditional framework for police–resident interactions that precluded more comprehensive use of community data and possibly heightened dissatisfaction with the level of problem solving that occurred.     

Deterring Gang-Involved Gun Violence: Measuring the Impact of Boston’s Operation Ceasefire on Street Gang Behavior

Objectives

The relatively weak quasi-experimental evaluation design of the original Boston Operation Ceasefire left some uncertainty about the size of the program’s effect on Boston gang violence in the 1990s and did not provide any direct evidence that Boston gangs subjected to the Ceasefire intervention actually changed their offending behaviors. Given the policy influence of the Boston Ceasefire experience, a closer examination of the intervention’s direct effects on street gang violence is needed.

Methods

A more rigorous quasi-experimental evaluation of a reconstituted Boston Ceasefire program used propensity score matching techniques to develop matched treatment gangs and comparison gangs. Growth-curve regression models were then used to estimate the impact of Ceasefire on gun violence trends for the treatment gangs relative to comparisons gangs.

Results

This quasi-experimental evaluation revealed that total shootings involving Boston gangs subjected to the Operation Ceasefire treatment were reduced by a statistically-significant 31 % when compared to total shootings involving matched comparison Boston gangs. Supplementary analyses found that the timing of gun violence reductions for treatment gangs followed the application of the Ceasefire treatment.

Conclusions

This evaluation provides some much needed evidence on street gang behavioral change that was lacking in the original Ceasefire evaluation. A growing body of scientific evidence suggests that jurisdictions should adopt focused deterrence strategies to control street gang violence problems.     

A randomized test of initial and residual deterrence from directed patrols and use of license plate readers at crime hot spots

Objectives

To test the effects of short-term police patrol operations using license plate readers (LPRs) on crime and disorder at crime hot spots in Mesa, Arizona.

Methods

The study employed a randomized experimental design. For 15 successive 2-week periods, a four-officer squad conducted short daily operations to detect stolen and other vehicles of interest at randomly selected hot spot road segments at varying times of day. Based on random assignment, the unit operated with LPRs on some routes and conducted extensive manual checks of license plates on others. Using random effects panel models, we examined the impact of these operations on violent, property, drug, disorder, and auto theft offenses as measured by calls for service.

Results

Compared to control conditions with standard patrol strategies, the LPR locations had reductions in calls for drug offenses that lasted for at least several weeks beyond the intervention, while the non-LPR, manual check locations exhibited briefer reductions in calls regarding person offenses and auto theft. There were also indications of crime displacement associated with some offenses, particularly drug offenses.

Conclusions

The findings suggest that use of LPRs can reduce certain types of offenses at hot spots and that rotation of short-term LPR operations across hot spots may be an effective way for police agencies to employ small numbers of LPR devices. More generally, the results also provide some support for Sherman’s (1990) crackdown theory, which suggests that police can improve their effectiveness in preventing crime through frequent rotation of short-term crackdowns across targets, as it applies to hot spot policing.     

Coalitions for a common purpose: managing relationships in experiments

Objectives

To discuss the character of relationships between operational and research staff and the necessary conditions for successful experiments.

Methods

A review of research and experience in the conduct of experiments, especially randomized controlled trials, examining the foundations for success, issues in maintaining cooperation with operational staff, implementation and leadership issues.

Results

The fundamental issue in successful experiments is the relationship between the operational and research entities, which most often resemble a coalition of temporary common interests rather than a partnership between parties with long-term common goals.

Conclusion

Experiments require close cooperation between the parties because of the need for maintenance and monitoring. Researchers who use field trials have solved many of the common problems faced by those embarking on experiments and those who do so will be rewarded by the quality of their findings. Relationships which may be characterised as temporary coalitions for a common purpose may, under the right conditions, ultimately mature into true research partnerships.     

The Effect of Incarceration on Re-Offending: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Pennsylvania

Objectives

This paper uses a sample of convicted offenders from Pennsylvania to estimate the effect of incarceration on post-release criminality.

Methods

To do so, we capitalize on a feature of the criminal justice system in Pennsylvania—the county-level randomization of cases to judges. We begin by identifying five counties in which there is substantial variation across judges in the uses of incarceration, but no evidence indicating that the randomization process had failed. The estimated effect of incarceration on rearrest is based on comparison of the rearrest rates of the caseloads of judges with different proclivities for the use of incarceration.

Results

Using judge as an instrumental variable, we estimate a series of confidence intervals for the effect of incarceration on one year, two year, five year, and ten year rearrest rates.

Conclusions

On the whole, there is little evidence in our data that incarceration impacts rearrest.     

Partying,Cruising, and Hanging in the Streets: Gangs,Routine Activities,and Delinquency and Violence in Chicago, 1959–1962

Objectives

Examine relationships between routine activities, character contests in the form of “signifying,” and general delinquency and fighting in a street gang context.

Methods

Samejima’s (Estimation of latent ability using a response pattern of graded scores. Psychometrika monograph supplement 17. Psychometric Society, Richmond, VA, Retrieved 10 Aug 2011, from http://www.psychometrika.org/journal/online/MN17.pdf, 1969) graded response models and multilevel ordinal logistic regression models are estimated using data from Short and Strodtbeck (Group process and gang delinquency. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1965) study of street gangs in Chicago, 1959–1962. The primary sample consists of 490 boys representing 10 black gangs, 4 white gangs, 9 black lower-class groups, 4 white lower-class groups, 2 black middle-class groups, and 2 white middle-class groups.

Results

Unstructured and unsupervised socializing with peers significantly increased the likelihood of delinquency among the boys and explained a significant portion of the group-level gang effect. In addition, the more time the boys spent hanging in the streets and attending parties, the more likely they were to participate in signifying, which, in turn, increased their risk of fighting.

Conclusions

Findings provide evidence that gangs contribute to delinquency partly through their effect on the routine activities of members. Findings also suggest that signifying is an important mechanism by which unstructured and unsupervised socializing with peers leads to violence.