Local Fiscal Stress in Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Kenyan Example

Abstract

This article identifies the fiscal weaknesses of local government in Africa, with concentration of the fiscal stress that is endemic to their condition. It then examines Kenya, as a case study in sub‐Saharan Africa. It continues to focus down on three Kenyan cities—Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu, and identifies their six major revenue sources: land based revenues, regulatory revenues, income‐based taxes, service revenues, user charges, and government grants. Although some of the data is problematic, it is possible to determine several reasons for local fiscal stress. These reasons include limited access to stable financial resources, unstable national economic performance, centralized governmental control, mixed results of decentralization, and institutional and managerial weaknesses, including corruption in the collection and use of resources. Four recommendations are advanced to help these local governments: the development of local credit systems, the use of non‐governmental organizations, the clarification of the use of foreign aid, and the development of a greater capacity for governance. This articles main theoretical contribution is the development of an analytic framework for examining the reasons for fiscal stress in sub‐Saharan Africa. By examining revenue and expenditure patterns of the three localities, the article develops a data set that highlights some of the reasons for local government financial problems—the governments do not know how much revenue can be collected from a particular revenue source, they do not have records of existing sources of revenue, and they only collect about 40–60% of their estimated collections.     

Community councils in Wales

One set of problems facing anyone trying to track public expenditure programmes is how to handle the intergovernmental aspects. This can be illustrated by Rose and Davies's study of public expenditure in Britain. Amongst these problems are changes to the system of grants from central government to local authorities and transfers of functions between local and central government. There are also problems in the consistency with which Rose and Davies use central government grant or all of relevant expenditure in devising programmes. As a result, Rose and Davies findings about local government expenditure programmes lack consistency over time or between programmes. These discrepancies occur in what in some cases are the largest programmes in their policy area, so they also undermine the empirical and theoretical conclusions drawn about policy change as a whole in Britain. Alternative approaches and data may provide a more meaningful tracking of policy change.     

Standard of Living and Disability in Cambodia

Little is known about the extra costs faced by households with disabled members in low resource settings and the impact of these costs on living standards. In this paper we estimate the direct cost associated with disability for households in Cambodia. Using the Standard of Living approach, the direct cost associated with having a member with disabilities is estimated to be 19 per cent of monthly household consumption expenditure. Accounting for the direct cost of disability doubles the poverty rate amongst households with disabled members from 18 per cent to 37 per cent, and increases the poverty gap from 3 to 8 per cent. A comparison of the direct cost associated with disability and income support received from government and family sources reveals that only 7 per cent of the costs of disability are met. Our findings suggest that, in the absence of increased coverage of public income support, households with disabled members will continue to experience a lower standard of living compared to households without disability in Cambodia.     

Glasgow: Anatomy of a fiscal crisis

Ostensibly, the reorganisation of Scottish local government in 1996 was intended to create a more local, more efficient and more accountable system of local government. However, simultaneously, through grant abatement, the government intensified its fiscal squeeze on local government, seeking in real terms reductions in local authority expenditure. Contrary to assurances from ministers, both developments occasioned disruption for local authorities, with Glasgow in particular experiencing a severe period of fiscal stress. This paper outlines a research framework for identifying potential causal factors behind the acute nature of Glasgow's fiscal crisis, whilst considering the budgetary constraints within which Scottish (and indeed British) local authorities must operate. Finally, it focuses on the impact and resolution of the crisis and highlights the crucial role that the decisions of central government have played in shaping the response of one major local authority.     

CENTRAL GRANTS AND LOCAL POLICY VARIATION

This paper estimates the impact of central grants on local spending decisions in England in the 19%. The analysis is based on a more explicit conceptual framework and a more appropriate methodology than conventionally used to measure grant effects in 'output' studies' of local policy variation. A set of six hypotheses is derived from political and economic theories of grant impact. The relationship between grants and expenditure change is estimated through a TSLS (Two Stage Least Squares) regression model. The main empirical results are that grants are an important constraint on spending decisions and that different types of grants have different effects: lump sum grants are substitutive and matching grants are stimulative. The evidence also indicates that spending is influenced by party politics, service needs and the local tax base.     

Intergovernmental Grants and Public Expenditures: Evidence from a Survey Experiment

The relationship between intergovernmental grants and public expenditures is one of the most studied phenomena in the local public finance literature. However, little is known about whether the impact of unconditional grants is fundamentally different from that of other sources of municipal revenue. We study this question by means of a large-scale randomised survey experiment among Danish local politicians, which allows for a comparison of the impact of changes in various sources of municipal revenue. Our findings challenge the conventional conception in the public finance literature that money works differently depending on which sector they are generated in. Instead, ideology plays an important role in explaining how local politicians want to allocate resources when faced with changes in local government revenue.     

Testing for Fiscal Illusion in Wisconsin Towns

Fiscal illusion, a theory of the impact of government revenue structures on voter decision-making, has been studied extensively by economists and political scientists; however, empirical verification has been limited. This study builds on Lowery's (1987a) work by examining the relationship between suggested illusionary revenues and measures of electoral stress. Here, electoral stress is measured as constituent contacting—one possible measure of voter influence—for local government officials up for re-election. Using a combination of survey data from over 1,000 Wisconsin town board members, audited fiscal data and U.S. Census data, we were able to test for fiscal illusion. Our findings show that when looking at five revenue types (conditional grants, unconditional grants, property taxes, user fees and charges, and debt service) there is some evidence suggesting officials seeking another term in office will tend to support fees and charges as a revenue structure over other structures. Overall, there is little consistent evidence suggesting that elected officials are manipulating revenue structures for electoral gain. Revenue structures are mostly influenced by social and economic factors, such as median household income, population changes, and per capita property valuation.     

An (in)effective tax and expenditure limit (TEL): Why county governments do not utilize their maximum allotted property tax rate

Tax and expenditure limits (TELs) are restrictions placed on governments limiting their ability to collect and spend revenue. Residents support these TELs, as they desire lower tax burdens and more government efficiency; yet, residents still desire the same level of public services. Property tax rate limits, a specific type of TEL, are placed upon local governments to limit their ability to collect revenue and expand authority. Rate limits were implemented on the assumption that governments would tax at their highest maximum possible rate, but this is not always the case. This article studies why some local governments choose not to utilize their maximum allotted property tax rate. Using an open systems governance approach, a panel data analysis was conducted using data from 67 Florida counties from 2008 to 2017. Results of the analysis show that the use of special districts and the age of the residential population have significant effects on property tax rate decisions.     

Tax revenue instability,with particular reference to sub‐Saharan Africa

This article examines the temporal instability of tax revenues across a sample of developed and less developed countries. It is shown that instability is especially high in LDCs and is highest in open economies with low per capita income, high output variance and inflationary problems. Even allowing for these factors, revenue instability appears to be particularly high in sub‐Saharan Africa. Revenue instability can be expected, via the government budget constraint, to be associated with expenditure instability and/or instability in the sources of deficit finance. Cross‐section evidence for LDCs confirms that countries with high tax revenue instability tend also to have high expenditure instability. Time‐series evidence for six African countries however, suggests that revenues and expenditures do not move together in a uniform manner, and the direction of causality is generally ambiguous. There is some evidence however that foreign borrowing is used more to finance expenditure increases than to counteract revenue shortfalls.     

Public services and local government: the end of the principle of ‘funding following duties’

Recent attention to local government finance in England has focused on the substantial cuts in grant funding during the 2010–15 Parliament. However, the newly introduced Business Rates Retention Scheme, which links the distribution of central funding to business rate revenue raised in each local area, constitutes a historically significant disjuncture in the funding of English local authorities. Since the nineteenth century, with the exception of one short period, funding of English local government has followed statutory duties set by Parliament, a principle which underlay a variety of central control and audit regimes throughout the twentieth century. The new system breaks that link, implying a rejection of responsibility for local services by central government. This plays into demands for greater ‘autonomy’ currently emanating from local authorities, but this may not be a panacea for the stretched financial situation that many of them are experiencing at present.     

The Fiscal Effects of Aid in Ethiopia: Evidence from CVAR Applications

ABSTRACT

This article explores the fiscal effects of aid in Ethiopia using the Cointegrated Vector Auto-Regressive (CVAR) methodology to model complex long-run and short-run dynamics. We use national data for 1961–2010, including a measure of aid capturing flows through the budget as measured by the recipient. The data suggests three main conclusions on the long-run equilibrium. First, government long-term spending plans are based on domestic sources, treating aid as an additional source of revenue. Second, both grants and loans are positively related to tax revenue. Third, aid is positively associated with spending, with a particularly strong relation between capital expenditure and grants. Overall, our results show that aid in Ethiopia had beneficial fiscal effects.     

Policy design and public support for carbon tax: Evidence from a 2018 US national online survey experiment

Public support for policy instruments is influenced by perceptions of how benefits and costs are distributed across various groups. We examine different carbon tax designs outlining different ways to distribute tax revenues. Using a national online sample of 1,606 US respondents, we examine support for a $20/ton carbon tax that is: (1) revenue neutral: revenue is returned to citizens via tax cuts; (2) compensation-focused: revenue is directed to helping actors disproportionately hurt by the tax; (3) mitigation-focused: revenue funds projects reducing carbon emissions; and (4) adaptation-focused: revenue is directed to enhancing community resilience to extreme weather events. We find devoting revenue to mitigation raises overall support for carbon tax by 6.3 per cent versus the control (54.9 per cent) where no information on spending is provided. Other frames raise support in specific subgroups only. Revenue neutrality raises support among lower-income households (+6.6 per cent) and political independents (+9.4 per cent), while compensation increases support among lower-income repondents (+6.1 per cent).     

Agricultural Production,Dietary Diversity and Climate Variability

Abstract

Nonseparable household modelsoutline the interlinkage between agricultural production and household consumption, yet empirical extensions to investigate the effect of production on dietary diversity and diet composition are limited. While a significant literature has investigated the calorie-income elasticity abstracting from production, this paper provides an empirical application of the nonseparable household model linking the effect of exogenous variation in planting season production decisions via climate variability on household dietary diversity. Using degree days, rainfall and agricultural capital stocks as instruments, the effect of production on household dietary diversity at harvest is estimated. The empirical specifications estimate production effects on dietary diversity using both agricultural revenue and crop production diversity. Significant effects of both agricultural revenue and crop production diversity on dietary diversity are estimated. The dietary diversity-production elasticities imply that a 10 per cent increase in agricultural revenue or crop diversity result in a 1.8 per cent or 2.4 per cent increase in dietary diversity respectively. These results illustrate that agricultural income growth or increased crop diversity may not be sufficient to ensure improved dietary diversity. Increases in agricultural revenue do change diet composition. Estimates of the effect of agricultural income on share of calories by food groups indicate relatively large changes in diet composition. On average, a 10 per cent increase in agricultural revenue makes households 7.2 per cent more likely to consume vegetables, 3.5 per cent more likely to consume fish, and increases the share of tubers consumed by 5.2 per cent.     

A decade of decline: a longitudinal look at big city and big county strategies to cope with declining revenues

Many local governments have now endured a decade of fiscal decline due to periodic reductions in external funding (federal and state and slowdowns in the rate of growth of the state and local government sector. This research examines the extent to which six large jurisdictions (three cities, three counties) under fiscal duress avoided political conflict and prevented further fragmentation of their authority between 1978 and 1987. The results showed that local officials generally chose retrenchment strategies (revenue, expenditure, and borrowing) with the least anticipated political opposition; but where hard choices had to be made (personnel reductions), they were made without hesitation. The timing of politically unpopular choices to coincide with downward trends in the private sector reduced the level of political fallout, even in heavily unionized, socioeconomically diverse communities. The results also showed that local officials strongly endorsed, rather than opposed, strategies that further fragmented their authority (privatization, intergovernmental cooperative agreements), because these approaches produce significant personnel and capital savings in the short term. Finally, the results indicated that the long-term cumulative effects of short-term decremental decisionmaking on the quality of life (as measured by drops in bond ratings) were negative in only one-third of the jurisdictions.     

The Effect of Food Price Changes on Child Labour: Evidence from Uganda

Most people in developing countries spend up to 60 per cent of their income on food, even though the majority of them are farmers. Hence, a change in food prices affects both their revenue as well as expenditure, and it may thereby affect their labour market decisions. Using the Uganda National Panel Survey and monthly regional food prices, this paper examines the effect of changes in food prices on child labour. The empirical evidence shows that an increase in food prices is linked to an increase in the probability and the intensity of child labour. We find the effect of food price increases to be smaller among landowning households, which is consistent with the view that landowning households can better compensate for price shocks. The empirical results suggest that periodic shocks in food prices may have longer lasting effects on economic development in developing countries through the channel of child labour.     

Structuralism versus Monetarism : A note on evidence

This paper illustrates, with a ten year simulation, possible effects of Malaysia's national buffer stock for natural rubber on the level and stability of export earnings, export tax revenue, producer income and world price. Employing rubber market parameters based on inference and empirical tests and buffer stock operating costs and policies similar to those of the current Malaysian buffer stock, it is shown that capital requirements for effective control exceed those at the disposal of the buffer stock manager while control may be expected to stabilize price at the expense of export earnings and producer income stability. These unfavourable effects can be neutralized in part by the increase in receipts obtained with a sufficiently narrow controlled price range or by an increase in demand emanating from reduced price risk. Under the apparent wider range of the buffer stock, losses in export earnings and producer income, as well as capital expenses and the terminal deficit of the stock authority are each less than 1 per cent of export earnings and producer income. The maximum short run capital requirement is about 2.5 per cent of these latter magnitudes. The arguments presented indicate that internationalization of the buffer stock would increase the benefits and decrease the costs in terms of the proportion of producer income and export earnings, compared to the existing national device.     

Do Formulas Reduce Political Influence on Intergovernmental Grants? Evidence from Tanzania

Sub-national governments usually depend on the central government for a large share of their revenues. Therefore, a fair allocation of intergovernmental grants is essential for financing vital local services like education and healthcare. In Tanzania, and many other countries, regions that are better represented in the national parliament receive significantly more funds than others. Recently, Tanzania replaced the previously existing discretionary method of grant allocation by allocation formulas. We study whether this has reduced the effect of malapportionment on grant allocation. Surprisingly, we find that formula allocation does not significantly change this effect. This has important policy implications.     

The challenge of design of intergovernmental relations in economies in transition

The governments of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are at a crucial juncture in their movement from highly centralized command economies to more decentralized market economies. While there is a belief in these countries that decentralization brings greater economic efficiency, the reality is that such a transition is a difficult process. This paper examines what types of administrative reforms are needed for the decentralization process, how far along the countries are with respect to these reforms, and what reforms are missing. As we discuss, many of the necessary administration reforms are missing and we argue that more attention must be paid to these elements for successful decentralization of these governments.

This paper examines the recent experience and reform needs of the key administrative aspects of the design of intergovernmental relations in countries in transition in Eastern Europe and in the former Soviet Union. There is a widespread realization in all of these countries that decentralizing government will help increase efficiency in the public sector just as privatization will improve efficiency in their economies. Decentralization of government operations is also attractive as a way to cement a democratic form of government. Despite the appearances of the existence of an already decentralized system, such as in the case of the Soviet Union, this experiment started in practically all cases with a lack of institutions and experience on how decentralized government operations should be organized.

As different as these countries are, there are many similarities in the reform process they are following in order to decentralize government structure. While the basic components of a decentralized system of government are emerging in many of these countries the structure of government has not fully evolved in a manner that can support such a decentralized system. Often, governments remain structured along a vertical hierarchy: information, budgetary authority, and revenue pass from the central government down to subnational levels of government while little communication or interaction exists at a horizontal level. In general, the assignment of revenue and expenditure has not been clearly defined among the two or three levels of government, central government transfers continue to occur in a relatively ad hoc manner, and the entire budgeting system still rests in many cases on more or less formal system of negotiations and bargaining among the different levels of government. There has been some change in this structure in certain countries. Over the last three years, both Poland and Hungary have legally increased the automony of subnational governments. In 1994 in Russia a new and more transparent system of intergovernmental grants has been established between the federal government and the regions. In 1994 also, Latvia introduced a more transparent formula-driven, transfer formula for the regional and municipal governments.

The focus of this paper is to develop a “blue print” for necessary changes in organization and administration of intergovernmental relations in countries in transition. While many experts have recently been discussing the public finance policy components of this new, evolving relationship among levels of government, less attention has been paid to the structural and administrative challenges and the information design issues that must be met in order to develop and support a system of intergovernmental relations.

The paper is organized as follows: First we review the major responsibilities and their allocation among levels of government, the assignment of revenue sources, and the system of transfers. We then turn to a discussion of the current experience of Eastern European and NIS countries in the context of the structural components of an intergovernmental fiscal system. Next, we analyze the organizational reforms that are necessary for the efficient functioning of a decentralized system of government in the economies in transition. Finally we “rate” the transition economies in relation to their current design of the system of intergovernmental relations and support mechanisms.     

Joint care and joint funding

One of the most important possible sources of conflict of interest between central and local governments is difference in political preferences with respect to, for example, income redistribution. If local governments are of a different political composition than the central government, they may be inclined to reinforce or weaken the redistribution policies as pursued by the central government. We empirically test whether local governments in the Netherlands do pursue income redistribution policies over and above the central government's redistribution policy and we find that the distribution of the local tax burden over the various household types differs according to the political composition of the local council.     

Local government in post-communist poland: A study of federalism and executive authority in plock

This article examines the establishment of local government in post-communist Poland. Its purpose is to examine the realignment of central state and local government authority established through the Polish National Assembly's (Sejm) 1990 reforms and to provide an assessment of developing local government autonomy and executive authority in the new city government structure.

The conceptual framework is comparative, using an American perspective to examine issues of local government autonomy and executive authority.