“Voluntary PR Voting” in the Election of Swiss Regional Governments

This paper analyses citizens' voting behaviour in the April 2011 elections of the regional governments in the cantons of Zurich and Lucerne. These elections were conducted with a majoritarian electoral system in a multi‐member district. In both cantons, the number of candidates in competition is relatively limited due to “voluntary PR”, that is, a coordination effort among parties that aims to achieve a proportional distribution of government seats. If citizens cast all of their votes, they must support candidates from various ideological camps. Alternatively, they can limit the number of votes used to cast a more concentrated vote. This paper examines what factors lead citizens to cast an ideologically concentrated or dispersed vote. The results show that the degree of ideological concentration of citizens' votes is related to partisan preferences, strategic considerations, political knowledge, and the level of satisfaction with the government performance.     

Issue Competence and its Influence on Voting Behavior in the Swiss 2015 Elections

The Liberal Radical party and – even more so – the Swiss People's party are the two winners of the Swiss 2015 election. In this contribution, we evaluate whether and to what extent issue ownership voting may help to account for the electoral success of these two parties. To that end, we distinguish the two dimensions – the associative and the competence dimension – of the concept and we rely on data from the on‐line, four‐wave panel survey carried out in the context of the Swiss election studies. Our results highlight the stability of issue ownership perceptions during the course of the campaign on the aggregate level, but they also show the substantial importance of issue ownership voting, on the individual level. More specifically, in line with earlier studies we find that competence issue ownership has a direct impact on the vote choice, whereas the impact of associative issue ownership is far more limited. For both parties under study, being seen as the most competent party on two important issues (migration and the economy) significantly contributes to the explanation of the vote choice.     

Understanding Political Knowledge and its Influence on Voting Preferences in the 2007 Federal Election

In this article we propose a model to explain how voters’ perceptions of their ideological proximity to a party affect their propensity to vote for that party. We argue that political knowledge plays a crucial moderating role in the relationship between party proximity and voting propensity. It is necessary, however, to distinguish between institutional knowledge (information about the political system) and party knowledge (information about the parties’ left–right positions). An analysis of survey data from the 2007 Swiss federal elections supports our main hypothesis that party knowledge enhances the link between party proximity and voting propensity. Institutional knowledge may have additional influence, but clear evidence for this effect was obtained only for propensities to vote for the Swiss People's Party (SVP). Overall, the impact of political knowledge was found to be substantial, even after controlling for the outstanding influence of party identification and other predictors of voting propensities.     

Voting Attitudes and Behaviour Among Aboriginal Peoples: Reports from Anangu Women*

At state and particularly in federal (or national) elections, Aboriginal Peoples in remote regions turn out to vote in low numbers. A number of hypotheses have been offered to explain the low voting participation of such constituencies. Some have asserted that Aboriginal Peoples do not wish to vote; others have suggested that “first order” elections have low salience for Aboriginal Peoples, thereby depressing turnout. The low political efficacy thesis has also been proposed, as well as cultural and mechanical factors. We consider whether any of these hypotheses are plausible using data obtained in group interviews with twenty‐nine Anangu Women in remote South Australia. On the basis of this fieldwork we consider means for stimulating turnout within this, and in similar, constituencies.     

The Use of the Endorsement Heuristic in Swiss Popular Votes

There already exists an impressive body of literature studying the use of voting recommendations in elections and popular votes. The main shortcoming of most of these observational studies is the measurement of voting recommendations. There is rarely any direct evidence to show that voters did indeed follow a recommendation when making a vote decision. Thus, it is not clear how widespread the use of such voting endorsements is. We measured the use of endorsements by evaluating the voting motives reported by the voters themselves. Employing this measure, we could show that endorsements have an impact on Swiss referendum votes. Depending on the issue at stake, between 2 and 27 percent of the voters admitted that they based their decision on recommendations. Moreover, the use of endorsements heavily depends on motivation, project‐specific knowledge level, and degree of ambivalence towards the issue at stake.     

Compensatory Voting in Direct Legislation. Evidence from Switzerland

In elections, voters sometimes compensate for post‐election bargaining processes by electing parties that are more extreme than themselves. We investigate compensatory voting in direct democracy. Our goals are to develop and test a measure of compensatory voting in direct legislation and assess its extent of compensatory voting. Empirically, we draw on the case of Switzerland, a country with frequent popular votes. We operationalize compensatory voting as voting ‘yes’ on a popular initiative in spite of endorsing arguments that speak against this initiative, under the condition of being well‐informed about the initiative. Using data from post‐ballot surveys on 17'570 individuals having voted on 63 popular initiatives in the period 1993 to 2015, our analysis shows that compensatory voting has not significantly increased in Switzerland in this period.     

Referendums Are Never Merely Referendums: On the Need to Make Popular Vote Processes More Deliberative

While there is much to command about Cheneval and el‐Wakil's ( 2018 ) proposal in favor of a nuanced and fine‐grained approach to popular vote processes as well as their specific defense of optional, bottom‐up, and binding referendums as democratic supplements to our existing representative institutions, I argue that their approach does not pay sufficient attention to the pre‐voting phase of the process that has to do with the laundering of raw preferences into generalized and informed ones, namely deliberation. I offer two suggestions to render the voting occuring in referenda more deliberative, namely the pre‐voting use of what I call “open mini‐publics” and that of Citizens’ Initiative Review. I also defend the use of top‐down and mandatory referenda in the context of a more open and technologically empowered deliberative democracy.     

Local Elections and the Turkish Voter: Looking for the Determinants of Party Choice

On 30 March 2014 Turkish voters elected their local (city) councillors. Their party preferences seem to indicate considerable correspondence with the national vote choices. So, do voters' choices in local elections differ from voters' party preferences at the national legislative elections? Based on previous research findings on Turkish voting behaviour, a list of hypotheses was compiled and tested, using binary logistic regression analyses and survey data collected immediately prior to the 2009 and 2014 local elections. The main findings are that the party lists are supported at the ballot boxes on the basis of the voters' party identification, ideological positions, and economic (dis)satisfaction, whether in national or local elections.     

The Constitutionality of Australia's Compulsory Voting System

Electoral law has been the subject of several High Court decisions in recent years, and this jurisprudence, as well as some of the political science literature, is canvassed here. I argue that there are serious constitutional question marks over Australia's system of “compulsory voting”. There are two particular constitutional arguments against “compulsory voting”. Firstly it infringes the implied freedom of political communication which the High Court has recognised since 1992. Secondly, it is inconsistent with the right to vote recognised by the High Court as being implicit in s7 and s24 of the Constitution. On this basis citizens entitled to vote should have the freedom not to do so (as is the case in many other representative democracies in which voting is voluntary).     

When Do Issue Opinions Matter,and to Whom? The Determinants of Long‐Term Stability and Change in Party Choice in the 2003 Swiss Elections

While various studies have highlighted the short‐term importance of issue‐voting for party choice, little attention has so far been paid to its long‐term relevance. Relying on longitudinal data from the 2003 Swiss federal elections, we examine under what circumstances issue‐specific considerations affect stability and change in party choice. We postulate that the impact of issue‐specific considerations is likely to vary depending on a set of mediating factors. Analyzing four mechanisms of stability and change (reinforcement, activation, conversion, and demobilization), we find first that issues matter more when they are pressing, central, and polarizing. Furthermore, issue positions affect the vote more significantly for the parties that are more profiled on them. These results are in line with those on short‐term effects. However, they reveal a stronger influence of shifts in issue opinions in the long‐term than in the short‐term. Finally, we do not find any substantial variations in the effect of issue preferences across individual characteristics (political sophistication and party identification).     

The impact of ideological positions and personal attributes of candidates in intraparty competition: A study under the Swiss open-list PR System

Intraparty preference voting systems offer different incentives for candidates to cultivate a personal vote, but little is known about how the candidates' policy positions affect their electoral success in intraparty competition. This article analyses the effect of candidates' ideological positions and personal attributes on their preference vote share in the 2015 and 2019 Swiss Lower House elections. We used candidate survey data combined with official election statistics. Our findings demonstrate that the ideological distance between candidates' positions and their party's median position is of minor importance for their electoral success when compared to their personal attributes. However, ideological distance between candidates and their party's median position reduce their preference vote share.     

The Transformation of Australian Electoral Analysis: The Two‐Party Preferred Vote — Origins,Impacts, and Critics

Measuring party support in Australia by constructing a “two‐party preferred” vote has had a profound effect, not only on the way political scientists, journalists, and politicians understand electoral “swing” and predict electoral outcomes, but also on their understanding of the party system, their thinking about electoral fairness, and their views about which party or parties can legitimately claim government. This article traces the origins — the maternity as well as the paternity – of the “two‐party preferred”. It documents its spread from federal to state elections, even as voting systems in some states have switched from exhaustive preferential to optional preferential. It discusses its wide‐ranging impact, and its implications for notions of electoral fairness and the legitimacy of election outcomes. It evaluates various criticisms of the concept — technical, pragmatic, and conceptual. And it notes the implications for marginal seat campaigning of the commonly observed “uniform swing”— implications completely at odds with the idea that marginal seats matter.     

Jeremy Bentham,John Stuart Mill and the Secret Ballot: Insights from Nineteenth Century Democratic Theory

As part of a series of demands for political reform in Britain in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century, Jeremy Bentham famously made a case for use of the secret ballot in elections. The advocacy of Bentham and his disciples on this issue fed into broader and at times robust public debate, particularly in the 1830s. On the opposite side of this debate was another leading political theorist, John Stuart Mill, who opposed secret ballot reform. This paper re‐examines the contours of this debate, making the case that it has important implications for contemporary political theory and debates about democracy. Firstly, and in terms of making sense of the debate itself, it points to the need to make a distinction between the “voter intimidation” argument and the Benthamite preference aggregation argument. Secondly, it suggests that distinguishing between vote‐buying and voter's dependence provides support for defenders of the secret ballot. Thirdly, it demonstrates the potential application of the idea of voting held in “trust” to the so‐called boundary problem in democratic theory. Finally, it points to the potentially wide but overlooked application of the Chartist idea of open voting (allowing the oppressed to identify their allies) in contemporary political theory.     

Muddy waters: citizenship and the right to vote in the Commonwealth Caribbean migratory context

Two global voting trends are noted in the electoral studies literature: the exclusion of resident noncitizens and the inclusion of non-resident citizens in national elections. These two research streams are rarely studied together. By analysing both of these trends in the Commonwealth Caribbean, the article reveals how the assumed relationship between citizenship and the right to vote does not always hold. Citizenship is neither necessary nor sufficient to exercise full political rights. The Commonwealth Caribbean thus diverges from global voting trends and illustrates the complexities and changing shape of the relationship between citizenship and the right to vote.     

Leader Effects and Voting for the Populist Radical Right in Western Europe

Charismatic leaders are often assumed to drive the electoral success of populist radical right parties. Yet, little attention is given to how voter evaluations of leaders influence individual voting behavior. To our knowledge, no systematic and comparative tests of this empirical question exist. In this paper, we test to what extent voters’ support for populist radical right parties is fueled by leaders' appreciation. In order to examine leader effects on the populist radical right vote, we rely on an original dataset pooling 29 National Election Studies from ten established West European parliamentary democracies (1985‐2018). Our analysis finds that: (1) voters’ evaluation of party leaders is significantly associated with voting for populist radical right parties; (2) leader evaluations are more important than left‐right self‐placement when it comes to voting for the populist radical right, and (3) leader effects are more important for populist radical right voters than for other voters.     

Why Do Citizens Vote Against Their Basic Political Values?

The literature on correct and consistent voting has focused on issue‐opinions and argument‐positions when examining whether vote decisions correspond to individual political preferences. However, the question whether vote decisions align with basic political values has largely been neglected so far. This paper introduces a novel measure named value consistent voting. It finds that, in Switzerland, around 25% jettison their basic political values when deciding on proposals. Using multilevel regression analysis of survey data, this paper investigates the determinants of value consistent voting. Three theoretical approaches are tested; the sophistication, identification and ambivalence hypotheses. The results show that political sophistication and identification foster value consistent voting. Moreover, there is an interaction between education and adhering to the preferred party’s vote recommendation. This finding supports the thesis that highly educated citizens use heuristics most efficiently. However, the more ambivalent people are, the more often they vote against their basic political values.     

Is Consensual Politicizing Being Punished in Switzerland?

Over the last decade, Switzerland has been characterized by both a radicalization of its political system and the relative success of the SP and SVP parties, which tend to adopt a strategy of permanent campaigning. Because of this, it is often argued that politicians are held accountable for their behaviour and that their electoral successes depend on their voting behaviour in parliament. We thus explore whether the voting behaviour of representatives, or citizens' evaluations of parties' ideological positions had an impact on their electoral success in the 1995, 1999, and 2003 national elections. More precisely, we assess how far the proximity and directional models explain the electoral success of incumbents and parties using roll call data for the National Council as well as the Selects surveys at the individual level. The results at both levels suggest that voters' choice is largely consistent with what is predicted by the spatial models of electoral behaviour. Swiss voters form their party preference on both proximity and direction, which supports a mixed model of electoral behaviour.     

The Salience of Ideology: Fifteen Years of Presidential Elections in El Salvador

The victory of the FMLN in El Salvador's presidential elections of March 2009 has been considered remarkable, given the dominance of ARENA in four consecutive presidential races from 1989 to 2004. Using individual‐level data, this article examines the determinants of electoral support for both parties over the past 15 years. Several statistical models illuminate some of the factors that led to ARENA's dominance and ultimate defeat. A combination of variables associated with different theoretical models of voting helps explain the choices made by Salvadoran voters over the years. The most consistent predictors of vote have been voters' self‐reported ideology and their evaluation of the incumbent government's performance. The 2009 turnaround relates to fundamental changes in the national and international context, and also to the selection of candidates.     

The Impact of Religion on Voting Behaviour – A Multilevel Approach for Switzerland

The traditional cleavages like social class or religion are often reported to have lost explanatory power for the voting decision. Regarding the religious cleavage, the evidence is ambiguous depending on the choice of cases and indicators used. The present study tests the impact of religion for the preference to vote the Christian Democratic Party of Switzerland (CVP) using data from the 2007 and 2011 Swiss national elections. Additional to the inclusion of individual variables, a special focus lies on contextual effects. The estimated hierarchical linear models confirm a prevailing influence of the simple individual factors and the presence of a significant contextual effect. Statistical evidence is also presented for some of the supposed interaction effects between individual and contextual religious variables.     

The Outcry of the Periphery? An Analysis of Ticino's No to Immigration

When the popular initiative “against mass immigration” was accepted by the Swiss people and cantons on 9 February 2014, Ticino had by far the highest approval rate. The Italian‐speaking canton thus once more confirmed its singular position, assumed since the 1990s, on popular votes regarding immigration and foreign policy. This seems to be indicative of wider crises and changes in both the economic and political spheres that have favoured the emergence of a political opposition between centre and periphery. The results of a survey among 1400 citizens of Ticino after the vote of 9 February confirm this. In essence, on top of the question of immigration, the vote was influenced by a fearful perception of Ticino as a “double periphery” vis‐à‐vis both Berne and Lombardy.