A General Empirical Law of Public Budgets: A Comparative Analysis

We examine regularities and differences in public budgeting in comparative perspective. Budgets quantify collective political decisions made in response to incoming information, the preferences of decision makers, and the institutions that structure how decisions are made. We first establish that the distribution of budget changes in many Western democracies follows a non-Gaussian distribution, the power function. This implies that budgets are highly incremental, yet occasionally are punctuated by large changes. This pattern holds regardless of the type of political system—parliamentary or presidential—and for level of government. By studying the power function's exponents we find systematic differences for budgetary increases versus decreases (the former are more punctuated) in most systems, and for levels of government (local governments are less punctuated). Finally, we show that differences among countries in the coefficients of the general budget law correspond to differences in formal institutional structures. While the general form of the law is probably dictated by the fundamental operations of human and organizational information processing, differences in the magnitudes of the law's basic parameters are country- and institution-specific .     

A Framework for Unifying Formal and Empirical Analysis

An important disconnect exists between the current use of formal modeling and applied statistical analysis. In general, a lack of linkage between the two can produce statistically significant parameters of ambiguous origin that, in turn, fail to assist in falsifying theories and hypotheses. To address this scientific challenge, a framework for unification is proposed. Methodological unification leverages the mutually reinforcing properties of formal and applied statistical analysis to produce greater transparency in relating theory to test. This framework for methodological unification, or what has been referred to as the empirical implications of theoretical models (EITM), includes (1) connecting behavioral (formal) and applied statistical concepts, (2) developing behavioral (formal) and applied statistical analogues of these concepts, and (3) linking and evaluating the behavioral (formal) and applied statistical analogues. The elements of this EITM framework are illustrated with examples from voting behavior, macroeconomic policy and outcomes, and political turnout.     

Global Renewable Electricity Policy: A Comparative Policy Analysis of Countries by Income Status

Although the drivers of renewable electricity (RE) are well-established among Western high-income countries, little is known about the factors that encourage RE development elsewhere. This paper analyzes an unprecedented, original dataset of 149 countries from 1990 to 2010 to compare the policy instruments and other factors that influence RE adoption across low-, middle-, and high-income countries. We find the factors driving RE development vary both across income group and between hydroelectric and non-hydro generation. Most notably for environmental concerns, non-hydroelectric RE generation is driven by feed-in-tariffs and renewable portfolio standards in high-income countries, feed-in tariffs alone in middle-income countries, and by subsidies in low-income countries. Non-policy drivers of RE also vary by country income level.     

Analyzing Global Governance Failure: A Philosophical Framework

This article seeks to make a contribution to theory development by explicating the competing approaches (explanatory frameworks and research methods) that can be used in the analysis of episodes of global governance failures—undesirable events (such as war, or incidents of international terrorism) and behaviors (such as rogue political leaders accumulating weapons of mass destruction or supporting international terrorist groups) that are a consequence of the ineffectiveness of a global governance process. It does so by constructing a methodological taxonomy, which enables the identification of the competing philosophical methodologies that underpin contending perspectives on the causation of, and solutions to, episodes of global governance failures, by reference to contesting understandings of what knowledge is (an epistemological issue) and what exists that is capable of giving rise to consequences (an ontological issue). It then identifies the epistemological and ontological challenges facing policy analysts seeking to analyze and address global governance failure. Meeting these challenges requires the adoption of a methodology that draws insights from the epistemological and ontological syntheses that have emerged within contemporary social theory.     

Downsizing, A View from the Inside

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is getting smaller. Total nondefense staffing in the federal government has declined by about 3 percent over the past fifteen years. Within this total, a number of agencies have absorbed reductions of over 17 percent, including USDA. This article begins with a brief history of USDA Next, it describes the distinction between the downsizing efforts of the 1980s and those that have occurred in the 1990s with respect to what has turned out to be a drastically different programmatic and political climate.     

Empirical determinants of corruption: A sensitivity analysis

Many variables have been proposed by past studies as significant determinants of corruption. This paper asks if their estimated impact on corruption is robust to alteration of the information set. A “Global Sensitivity Analysis”, based on the Leamer's Extreme-Bounds Analysis gives a clear answer: five variables are robustly related to corruption. Corruption is lower in richer countries, where democratic institutions have been preserved for a long continuous period, and the population is mainly Protestant. Corruption is instead higher where political instability is a major problem. Finally, a country's colonial heritage appears to be a significant determinant of present corruption.     

The Determinants of State Budget Periodicity: An Empirical Analysis

States budget for a one-year or a two-year period. Little attention has been paid to the determinants of budget periodicity decisions at the state level. This article relies on existing surveys to develop hypotheses for the factors that influence the periodicity decision at the state level. The hypotheses are tested using a sample of 300 observations of the fifty states at various times in recent history. The results suggest that overall expenditures, budget complexity, political culture, revenue variability, and frequency of legislative session are statistically significant factors in the determination of budget periodicity.     

State Adoption of Model Insurance Codes: An Empirical Analysis

What are the patterns of adoption of NAIC model insurance actsamong the states, and what explains the differences in stateresponse? This article provides an empirical analysis of thesequestions. State responses are analyzed comprehensively andfunctionally; two core regulatory functions—financialregulation and consumer protection—receive specific attention.The article then examines three types of explanations suggestedby the literature on model-code adoption: broad socioeconomicforces, narrow interest-group pressures, and the nature of publicinstitutions (specifically the legislature and the state insurancedepartment). The interest-group model is the most powerful,but the results it produces challenge the traditional view ofthe politics of insurance regulation.     

Collaboration Processes: Inside the Black Box

Social science research contains a wealth of knowledge for people seeking to understand collaboration processes. The authors argue that public managers should look inside the "black box" of collaboration processes. Inside, they will find a complex construct of five variable dimensions: governance, administration, organizational autonomy, mutuality, and norms. Public managers must know these five dimensions and manage them intentionally in order to collaborate effectively.     

农民工城市生活主观幸福感的一个实证分析

本文基于七省区的调查数据,考察了农民工主观幸福感的基本状况,并通过建构回归模型探讨了影响农民工城市生活主观幸福感的主要因素,对文章提出的四个基本假设进行了检验。研究发现第二代农民工的城市幸福感要弱于第一代农民工,人力资本的优势很难带来城市幸福感上的相对优势。研究结果证实了社会支持因素和婚姻家庭因素对于农民工城市幸福感的积极影响,在本文区分的微观层次社会交往因素和宏观层次的福利保障因素上,都能看到它们对于农民工的强烈影响。     

Gender Norms and Women's Political Representation: A Global Analysis of Cabinets, 1979–2009

What role does the international diffusion of gender norms play in determining recent increases in women's political representation? We argue that norm diffusion has larger positive effects on women's cabinet representation than on women's legislative representation. We also show that within cabinets, norm diffusion affects low‐prestige appointments more than high‐prestige appointments. We test these arguments using an original database of ministers from 1979 to 2009 and find that the association of women's representation with three separate indicators of international diffusion—levels of women's representation among neighboring states, levels of women's representation among intergovernmental organization partners, and time since ratification of the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women—is consistent with our arguments.     

Tax Competition and Income Redistribution: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland

Tax competition is supposed to lead to thecollapse of the welfare state because, first, it willbecome difficult for a single jurisdiction to levy aredistribution tax upon the rich and mobile, andsecond, such a policy, if undertaken in onejurisdiction, will attract poor individuals from otherjurisdictions and erode internal redistributionpolicies. In this paper, the impact of personal incometaxes and transfers on residence decisions oftaxpayers is analyzed with Swiss subfederal data. Therelationship of tax competition and the erosion of theSwiss welfare state is tested with aggregate data onincome redistribution.     

Adult Education Policy Formation and Implementation: A Global Perspective

Adult education policies around the world during the post-World War II period owe a debt to UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization) both in their conception and implementation. Four UNESCO-sponsored world conferences on adult education (UNESCO, 1949; UNESCO, 1963; UNESCO, 1972; UNESCO, 1985) and several other conference reports and surveys (Bhola, 1989b; Lowe, 1982; UNESCO, 1976) have contributed to adult education as an area of study, as a progressive movement in its own right and in developing adult education throughout the Third World, an area of special, but not exclusive, interest in this paper.     

Global Democracy: A Symposium on a New Political Hope

The idea that the values and norms of democracy can also be applied to global politics is increasingly debated in academe. The six authors participating in this symposium are all advocates of global democracy, but there are significant differences in the way they envision its implementation. Some of the contributors discuss if and how substantial changes undertaken by states, mostly in their foreign policies, may also generate positive consequences in global politics. Other contributors address the nature of the international arena and the possible reforms it should undergo starting with the reform of international organizations. The debate combines theoretical aspects with normative proposals that could also be advanced in the political arena and offers a wide range of perspectives on the attempts to achieve a more democratic global political community.     

Empirical versus Theoretical Claims about Extreme Counterfactuals: A Response

Langche Zeng Department of Political Science, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093 e-mail: lazeng{at}ucsd.edu In response to the data-based measures of model dependence proposedin King and Zeng (2006), Sambanis and Michaelides (2008) proposealternative measures that rely upon assumptions untestable inobservational data. If these assumptions are correct, then theirmeasures are appropriate and ours, based solely on the empiricaldata, may be too conservative. If instead, and as is usuallythe case, the researcher is not certain of the precise functionalform of the data generating process, the distribution from whichthe data are drawn, and the applicability of these modelingassumptions to new counterfactuals, then the data-based measuresproposed in King and Zeng (2006) are much preferred. After all,the point of model dependence checks is to verify empirically,rather than to stipulate by assumption, the effects of modelingassumptions on counterfactual inferences. Author’s note: Easy-to-use software to implement the methodsdiscussed here, called "WhatIf: Software for Evaluating Counterfactuals,"is available at http://gking.harvard.edu/whatif. All informationnecessary to replicate the analyses herein can be found in King and Zeng (2008).Conflict of interest statement. None declared.