REASSESSING TRENDS IN BLACK VIOLENT CRIME, 1980–2008: SORTING OUT THE “HISPANIC EFFECT” IN UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS ARRESTS,NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY OFFENDER ESTIMATES,AND U.S. PRISONER COUNTS*

Recent studies suggest a decline in the relative Black effect on violent crime in recent decades and interpret this decline as resulting from greater upward mobility among African Americans during the past several decades. However, other assessments of racial stratification in American society suggest at least as much durability as change in Black social mobility since the 1980s. Our goal is to assess how patterns of racial disparity in violent crime and incarceration have changed from 1980 to 2008. We argue that prior studies showing a shrinking Black share of violent crime might be in error because of reliance on White and Black national crime statistics that are confounded with Hispanic offenders, whose numbers have been increasing rapidly and whose violence rates are higher than that of Whites but lower than that of Blacks. Using 1980–2008 California and New York arrest data to adjust for this “Hispanic effect” in national Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) data, we assess whether the observed national decline in racial disparities in violent crime is an artifact of the growth in Hispanic populations and offenders. Results suggest that little overall change has occurred in the Black share of violent offending in both UCR and NCVS estimates during the last 30 years. In addition, racial imbalances in arrest versus incarceration levels across the index violent crimes are both small and comparably sized across the study period. We conclude by discussing the consistency of these findings with trends in economic and social integration of Blacks in American society during the past 50 years.     

REPORTING CRIME TO THE POLICE, 1973–2005: A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM TRENDS IN THE NATIONAL CRIME SURVEY (NCS) AND NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY (NCVS)*

Although many efforts have been made during the past several decades to increase the reporting of crime to the police, we know little about the nature of long-term crime-reporting trends. Most research in this area has been limited to specific crime types (e.g., sexual assault), or it has not taken into account possible changes in the characteristics of incidents associated with police notification. In this article, we advance knowledge about long-term trends in the reporting of crime to the police by using data from the National Crime Survey (NCS) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and methods that take into account possible changes in the factors that affect reporting at the individual and incident level as well as changes in survey methodology. Using data from 1973 to 2005, our findings show that significant increases have occurred in the likelihood of police notification for sexual assault crimes as well as for other forms of assault and that these increases were observed for violence against women and violence against men, stranger and nonstranger violence, as well as crimes experienced by members of different racial and ethnic groups. The reporting of property victimization (i.e., motor vehicle theft, burglary, and larceny) also increased across time. Overall, observed increases in crime reporting account for about half of the divergence between the NCVS and the Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) in the estimated magnitude of the 1990s crime decline—a result that highlights the need to corroborate findings about crime trends from multiple data sources.     

When Choice of Data Matters: Analyses of U.S. Crime Trends, 1973–2012

Objectives

This study uses UCR and NCVS crime data to assess which data source appears to be more valid for analyses of long-term trends in crime. The relationships between UCR and NCVS trends in violence and six factors from prior research are estimated to illustrate the impact of data choice on findings about potential sources of changes in crime over time.

Methods

Crime-specific data from the UCR and NCVS for the period 1973–2012 are compared to each other using a variety of correlational techniques to assess correspondence in the trends, and to UCR homicide data which have been shown to be externally valid in comparison with other mortality records. Log-level trend correlations are used to describe the associations between trends in violence, homicide and the potential explanatory factors.

Results

Although long-term trends in robbery, burglary and motor vehicle theft in the UCR and NCVS are similar, this is not the case for rape, aggravated assault, or a summary measure of serious violence. NCVS trends in serious violence are more highly correlated with homicide data than are UCR trends suggesting that the NCVS is a more valid indicator of long-term trends in violence for crimes other than robbery. This is largely due to differences during the early part of the time series for aggravated assault and rape when the UCR data exhibited consistent increases in the rates in contrast to general declines in the NCVS. Choice of data does affect conclusions about the relationships between hypothesized explanatory factors and serious violence. Most notably, the reported association between trends in levels of gasoline lead exposure and serious violence is likely to be an artifact associated with the reliance on UCR data, as it is not found when NCVS or homicide trend data are used.

Conclusions

The weight of the evidence suggests that NCVS data represent more valid indicators of the trends in rape, aggravated assault and serious violence from 1973 to the mid-1980s. Studies of national trends in serious violence that include the 1973 to mid-1980s period should rely on NCVS and homicide data for analyses of the covariates of violent crime trends.

     

The Gender Gap in Violent Victimization, 1973–2004

In this paper, data from the NCS and NCVS are developed for the purpose of describing long-term trends in male and female violent victimization for the period 1973–2004. More specifically, gender-specific trends in violence are compared according to crime type and victim–offender relationship. Despite their potential usefulness, these data have not been published previously. The data reveal that the gender gap in robbery victimization has remained relatively stable while the gender gaps in aggravated and simple assault victimization have narrowed over time. Results varied when the data were disaggregated by victim–offender relationship. Male and female rates of nonstranger simple assault and nonstranger robbery were roughly equivalent throughout the period, and the greater risk for male nonstranger aggravated assault that was evident three decades ago has largely disappeared. The gender gap persists in stranger assault, but has narrowed somewhat because male rates of victimization have declined more than female rates. In addition, male and female trends and the gender gap in nonlethal intimate partner violence differ from the patterns established in intimate partner homicide studies. The paper concludes with a discussion of research that is needed to understand why the gender gap in violent victimization has changed for some types of violence but not others, and how greater attention to gender will improve efforts to understand crime trends.

GENDER,STRUCTURAL DISADVANTAGE,AND URBAN CRIME: DO MACROSOCIAL VARIABLES ALSO EXPLAIN FEMALE OFFENDING RATES?*

Building on prior macrosocial-crime research that sought to explain either total crime rates or male rates, this study links female offending rates to structural characteristics of U.S. cities. Specifically, we go beyond previous research by: (1) gender disaggregating the Uniform Crime Report (UCR) index-crime rates (homicide, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny-theft) across U.S. cities; (2) focusing explicitly on the effects of structural disadvantage variables on the index-offending rates of females; and (3) comparing the effects of the structural variables on female rates with those for male rates. Alternative measures of structural disadvantage are used to provide more theoretically appropriate indicators, such as gender-specific poverty and joblessness, and controls are included for age structure and structural variables related to offending. The main finding is consistent and powerful: The structural sources of high levels of female offending resemble closely those influencing male offending, but the effects tend to be stronger on male offending rates.     

NEIGHBORHOOD DISADVANTAGE AND POLICE NOTIFICATION BY VICTIMS OF VIOLENCE*

This research uses data from the Area‐Identified National Crime Victimization Survey to examine the influence of neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage on the likelihood of police notification by victims of violence. The results indicate that neighborhood disadvantage does not significantly affect the likelihood of police notification among robbery and aggravated assault victims. However, a significant curvilinear effect of neighborhood disadvantage is observed for simple assault victims. The implications of these results for community‐level crime research and for theoretical perspectives on police notification are discussed.     

AN ASSESSMENT OF RECENT TRENDS IN GIRLS' VIOLENCE USING DIVERSE LONGITUDINAL SOURCES: IS THE GENDER GAP CLOSING?

Applying Dickey-Fuller time series techniques in tandem with intuitive plot-displays, we examine recent trends in girls' violence and the gender gap as reported in four major sources of longitudinal data on youth violence. These sources are arrest statistics of the Uniform Crime Reports, victimization data of the National Crime Victimization Survey (where the victim identifies sex of offender) and self-reported violent behavior of Monitoring the Future and National Youth Risk Behavior Survey. We find that the rise in girls' violence over the past one to two decades as counted in police arrest data from the Uniform Crime Reports is not borne out in unofficial longitudinal sources. Several net-widening policy shifts have apparently escalated girls' arrest-proneness: first, stretching definitions of violence to include more minor incidents that girls in relative terms are more likely to commit; second, increased policing of violence between intimates and in private settings (for example, home, school) where girls' violence is more widespread; and, third, less tolerant family and societal attitudes toward juvenile females. These developments reflect both a growing intolerance of violence in the law and among the citizenry and an expanded application of preventive punishment and risk management strategies that emphasize early identification and enhanced formal control of problem individuals or groups, particularly problem youth.     

EXPLORING THE INTERSEXUAL NATURE OF VIOLENT CRIMES*

Data on criminal homicides (from the Uniform Crime Reports) and aggravated assaults and simple assaults (from the National Crime Surveys) are analyzed to determine the extent to which violent crimes occur within or between sexes. The routine activities approach is used to develop hypotheses, and those hypotheses are tested using models that estimate the proportion of ingroup and outgroup crimes “expected.” With the exception of homicides, in which women murder men more often than expected, each of these violent crimes occurs within sexes more often than expected. There is a strong relationship between the type of violence (simple assault, aggravated assault, and homicide) and the extent to which the target of female aggression is a male.     

Sex-Based Predictors of Male and Female Property Crime Arrest Rates: Disadvantage and Drug Use

A large body of research has considered the relationship between crime and structural indicators. However, despite trends in the gender gap in offending, fewer studies have separately examined the effects of structural variables on both male and female offending. The present study examined that question through a macro-level examination of property crime across large U.S. cities using data from the Uniform Crime Report and the American Community Survey. The predictors included theoretically supported indicators of disadvantage and drug accessibility/use that were disaggregated by sex. Although the findings indicated some similarities in predictors of male and female arrest rates, they highlighted some important differences as well.     

Not Just a Boy's Club

Abstract

The extant literature suggests that habitual criminality among women is rare and that female career criminals are ostensibly nonexistent. Using the criminal records of 500 male and female adult recidivists, this study applies the concept of career criminality to women and describes how this application has specific gendered elements. Like their male peers, women are chronic, versatile offenders engaged in violent, property, and public-order offending. Women are disproportionately engaged in forgery, fraud, and prostitution whereas men are disproportionately engaged in rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. No gender differences existed for a variety of additional offenses and criminal justice system statuses. However, significant gender differences exist for social demographic characteristics, such as age and timing of onset, and criminal career parameter indicators, such as span of criminal career. These data and analyses indicate that the career criminal classification has important implications for criminal career research and gender-based criminology.     

On the Limits of Social Control: Structural Deterrence and the Policing of “Suppressible” Crimes

The present study examined the relationships between patterns of police arrests and subsequent variations in robbery, burglary, and aggravated assault in New York City police precincts from 1989 to 1998. Grounded in the structural deterrence theoretical perspective, and using a two‐stage fixed‐effects statistical framework, the study found that while controlling for indicators of social disorganization, increases in arrest vigor (i.e., arrests per officer for violent crimes in each precinct and raw arrest counts) predicted decreases in robbery and burglary, but that the relationships were non‐linear: as arrest vigor increased, robbery and burglary crime decreased; when arrest thresholds were reached, however, both robbery and burglary crime rates became positively associated with arrest aggressiveness. Conversely, variations in aggressive arrest patterns had no significant effect on aggravated assault, supporting the suppressible crimes arguments that primarily economically motivated crimes, and those that tend to occur in public settings, are most likely deterred by aggressive police practices.     

Examining the Gendered Effect of Experienced and Vicarious Victimization: A General Strain Theory Perspective

Although general strain theory has broadened our theoretical perspectives, there remains a need to learn about the relationship between victimization and violence. In addition, studies applying general strain theory have yielded mixed findings about gender issues. Using data from the National Survey of Adolescents (NSA), the current study examined the effects of violent victimization on violent offending by gender. More specifically, the study assessed the relationship between two types of victimization (experienced and vicarious) and three types of violent offending (gang fights, robbery, and assault) and investigated whether gender plays a role in the association. Findings of negative binomial regression analyses offered overall support for experienced and vicarious victimization as predictors of violence. However, gendered effects of experienced and vicarious victimization on violence were not supported by results. Interaction effects between gender and victimization were only significant in baseline models (without control factors), however, became insignificant in full models. The implications of these results and limitations were discussed.     

Victim's perceptions of initial police responses to robbery and aggravated assault: Does race matter?

Despite the fact that police officers are usually the first persons within the criminal justice system to respond to a criminal victimization, the majority of research investigating racial discrimination within the system has examined primarily the effects of race on adjudication outcomes which occur after initial police interventions, such as conviction decisions and sentences. Very little empirical effort has been devoted to examining the effects of race on early police responses to a reported victimization. Using data from the National Crime Victimization Survey from 1987 to 1992, this paper investigates the effects of both the victim's and the offender's race on three police responses to robbery and aggravated assault: (1) police response time to the scene, (2) effort exerted by the police at the scene, and (3) likelihood of arrest. It was found that police were quicker to respond and also exerted more effort at the scene such as searching and taking evidence to incidents of black on white robbery compared to all other racial dyads. This relationship held even after controlling for other factors such as victim-offender relationship, poverty, injury to the victim, and victim's gender. No significant effects of race, however, were found when predicting the probability of arrest in cases of robbery. The effects of race on police responses to aggravated assault were more complicated. For assaults involving strangers, police were significantly more likely to exert additional effort at the scene if the victim was white and the offender was perceived to be black. This effect was reversed, however, for nonstranger assault victimizations. Police were significantlyless likely to exert effort at the scene or to make an arrest in black on white assaults involving nonstrangers. The most consistent predictors of arrest in both stranger and nonstranger assault victimizations were police response time, injury to the victim, and the incident occurring in a public setting.     

Sex differences in the likelihood of arrest

Using data from the new National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), this study analyzed the impact of a criminal offender's sex on the likelihood of arrest for 555,752 incidents of kidnapping, forcible rape, forcible fondling, robbery, aggravated assault, simple assault, and intimidation in nineteen states and the District of Columbia during 2000. The data used in this study advanced the literature by enabling the authors to determine the likelihood of arrest for males and females based on sex-specific offending as reported by crime victims. Controlling for offense seriousness and a variety of other factors, logistic regression results showed that the probability of arrest for females was 28 percent lower for kidnapping, 48 percent lower for forcible fondling, 9 percent lower for simple assault, and 27 percent lower for intimidation than for males. A supplemental analysis also revealed that Black females had a higher probability of arrest than did White females for aggravated and simple assault. No discernable impact of an offender's sex on the prospect of arrest was noted for the crimes of forcible rape and robbery. Overall, these findings suggest that the lower arrest rate for females is partly the result of leniency shown women by law enforcement personnel.     

Estimating the Impact of Classification Error on the “Statistical Accuracy” of Uniform Crime Reports

This paper offers a methodological approach for estimating classification error in police records then determining the statistical accuracy of official crime statistics reported to the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program. Classification error refers to the mistakes in UCR statistics caused by the misclassification of criminal offenses, for example recording a crime as aggravated assault when it should have been simple assault. Statistical accuracy refers to the estimated true total of each crime type based on cancelling effect of undercounting and overcounting crime due to misclassifications. The population for the study consists of the 12 largest municipal police agencies in a mostly rural southeastern state. Based on a sample of 2,663 records, the authors illustrate the impact of classification error on the total population of reported offenses. Misclassifications result in overcounting and undercounting certain crimes. The true number of each crime type, as well as the aggregate Index Crime, Violent Crime, and Property Crime totals, is estimated based the evaluation of offsetting misclassifications. The findings show that certain UCR crime categories are greatly undercounted while others are overcounted. The index crime and violent crime totals are also significantly undercounted; however, when simple assault is added to the index and violent crime categories, the error in these aggregate numbers is reduced to less than 1%. The results provide a benchmark for assessing the statistical accuracy of the UCR data.     

Victims and Offenders in Two Crime Statistics Programs: A Comparison of the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)

The National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) overcomes a basiclimitation of the traditional summary Uniform Crime Reporting program (UCR)by collecting victim information. Using this new victim information tocompare National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and NIBRS results, wefind some similarities as well as some differences in the characteristics ofvictims and offenders suggested by the two programs. Similarities appear inthe proportions of men and women involved as victims and offenders forrobbery and assault. Comparisons are more difficult and the proportions lesssimilar for property offenses. Nevertheless, the results suggest that whenthe NIBRS is fully developed, it will be an important source of informationon the characteristics of both victims and offenders. Even before theredesigned program is fully implemented, one of the most important featuresof NIBRS reports will be their ability to provide local area victimizationinformation. In addition, the NIBRS will provide much more information onarrests and the characteristic of offenders than any existing program.     

A longitudinal analysis of factors associated with reporting violent crimes to the police

The use of generalized estimating equations and time-series methods for fitting longitudinal models in the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is discussed, with reference to the relation between the reporting of a violent crime to the police and previous victimizations. Two longitudinal models are fit to NCVS data to predict the likelihood of reporting a violent crime to the police based on characteristics of the victim and the incident and based on previous victimization experiences. In both models, it is found that higher reporting rates are associated with positive results accruing from reporting previous victimization to the police.     

CHANGES IN POLICE NOTIFICATION FOR RAPE, 1973–2000*

We use data from the National Crime Survey (NCS) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) to explore changes in the likelihood of police notification in rape incidents. The findings indicate that during the 1970s and 1980s there was a significant increase in police notification by third parties and by victims raped by non‐strangers. During the 1990s the increase in rates of police notification in rape incidents accelerated and broadened in scope. In addition, differences in police notification between stranger and non‐stranger incidents diminished during the 1970s and 1980s and, by the early 1990s there was no significant difference.     

Are we becoming more violent? A comparison of trends in violent and property offenses in Australia and Western Australia

This paper examines Australian and West Australian trends in robbery, assault, and burglary. Police figures are contrasted with the results of Australian victimization surveys. The limitations of Australian victimization surveys are discussed. The results of Australian victimization surveys are contrasted with the results of the National Crime Survey in the United States and the International Crime Victim Survey. When all the qualifications are considered, it is concluded that there has been a trend upward in burglary and robbery prevalence and that this upward trend occurred mainly in the 1980s. However, because there is little evidence of a concomitant rise in the assault rate, the increasing prevalence of robbery and burglary is interpreted as reflecting social phenomena that are associated with acquisitiveness rather than aggressiveness. Other evidence pertaining to the level of violence in Australia is considered and it is concluded that this is insufficient to allow a conclusion that we are, as a nation, becoming more violent.     

The effect of offenders' sex on reporting crimes to the police

This article examines the difference in victims' reporting behavior regarding crimes committed by males and by females. The authors expect that victims of female offenders are less likely to report to the police than victims of male offenders because of differences in the victim-offender relationship as well as in the victim's sex. With recent developments in Bayesian statistics, new tools have become available that enable the direct evaluation of researchers' expectations. All cases of robbery with assault from the National Crime Victimization Survey have been investigated (n = 478). Findings reveal that female offenders are underreported compared with male offenders and that this can be explained by the victim characteristics but only in combination with the offender's sex.