UP IT UP: GENDER AND THE ACCOMPLISHMENT OF STREET ROBBERY*

Attempts to understand women's participation in violence have been plagued by a tendency either to overemphasize gender differences or to downplay the significance of gender. The goal of this research is to reconcile these approaches through an examination of the experiences of female and male street robbers in an urban setting. Based on in-depth interviews with active offenders, the study compares women's and men's accounts of why they commit robbery, as well as how gender organizes the commission of the crime. The research suggests that while women and men articulate similar motives for robbery, their enactment of the crime is strikingly different—a reflection, in part, of practical choices women make in the context of a gender-stratified street setting.     

Group and solo robberies: Do accomplices shape criminal form?

Robbery is frequently committed in groups, yet previous literature gives only passing attention to the role of co-offending. The effects of co-offenders on criminal decisions and the form crime takes when committed by groups are largely unknown. Drawing on individual interviews with convicted robbers, offenders who committed their crime alone are compared with those who co-offended. The study considered whether the presence of accomplices significantly affected perceptions of planning, control, victim selection, and victim cooperation. Findings revealed that group interaction shapes the decision to commit crime. Co-offending increased planning and the sense of control that offenders experienced during the robbery. No evidence was found to indicate that crime with co-offenders changed the way robbery victims were selected.     

DOES CRIME JUST MOVE AROUND THE CORNER? A CONTROLLED STUDY OF SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT AND DIFFUSION OF CRIME CONTROL BENEFITS*

Recent studies point to the potential theoretical and practical benefits of focusing police resources on crime hot spots. However, many scholars have noted that such approaches risk displacing crime or disorder to other places where programs are not in place. Although much attention has been paid to the idea of displacement, methodological problems associated with measuring it have often been overlooked. We try to fill these gaps in measurement and understanding of displacement and the related phenomenon of diffusion of crime control benefits. Our main focus is on immediate spatial displacement or diffusion of crime to areas near the targeted sites of an intervention. Do focused crime prevention efforts at places simply result in a movement of offenders to areas nearby targeted sites—“do they simply move crime around the corner”? Or, conversely, will a crime prevention effort focusing on specific places lead to improvement in areas nearby—what has come to be termed a diffusion of crime control benefits? Our data are drawn from a controlled study of displacement and diffusion in Jersey City, New Jersey. Two sites with substantial street‐level crime and disorder were targeted and carefully monitored during an experimental period. Two neighboring areas were selected as “catchment areas” from which to assess immediate spatial displacement or diffusion. Intensive police interventions were applied to each target site but not to the catchment areas. More than 6,000 20‐minute social observations were conducted in the target and catchment areas. They were supplemented by interviews and ethnographic field observations. Our findings indicate that, at least for crime markets involving drugs and prostitution, crime does not simply move around the corner. Indeed, this study supports the position that the most likely outcome of such focused crime prevention efforts is a diffusion of crime control benefits to nearby areas.     

BITING ONCE,TWICE: THE INFLUENCE OF PRIOR ON SUBSEQUENT CRIME LOCATION CHOICE

Properties, victims, and locations previously targeted by offenders have an increased risk of being targeted again within a short time period. It has been suggested that often the same offenders are involved in these repeated events and, thus, that offenders’ prior crime location choices influence their subsequent crime location choices. This article examines repeated crime location choices, testing the hypothesis that offenders are more likely to commit a crime in an area they previously targeted than in areas they did not target before. Unique data from four different data sources are used to study the crime location choices of 3,666 offenders who committed 12,639 offenses. The results indicate that prior crime locations strongly influence subsequent crime location choices. The effects of prior crime locations are larger if the crimes are frequent, if they are recent, if they are nearby, and if they are the same type of crime.     

FAMILY MATTERS: EFFECTS OF FAMILY MEMBERS’ RESIDENTIAL AREAS ON CRIME LOCATION CHOICE*

According to crime pattern theory, offenders are likely to select crime locations within their awareness space. Previous studies have shown that offenders often commit crimes within their current and former residential areas and in areas they previously targeted. However, offenders’ awareness spaces obviously consist of more locations that potentially influence their crime location choices. This study examines the importance of the residential areas of offenders’ family members. Most offenders visit their families at least occasionally and consequently get familiar with the areas in which their families live. It is hypothesized that family members’ residential areas are at increased risk of being targeted. Unique data were used to reconstruct residential histories of the parents, siblings, and children of 7,910 offenders who committed 19,420 offenses. The results of discrete spatial choice models showed that residential areas of family members are indeed at increased risk of being targeted. Current familial residential areas had stronger and more consistent effects than had former familial residential areas. Effects were strongest for the residential areas of offenders’ children compared with those of their parents and siblings. The residential areas of male and female family members affected the crime location choices of male and female offenders equally.     

TARGET CHOICE DURING EXTREME EVENTS: A DISCRETE SPATIAL CHOICE MODEL OF THE 2011 LONDON RIOTS

Riots are extreme events, and much of the early research on rioting suggested that the decision making of rioters was far from rational and could only be understood from the perspective of a collective mind. In the current study, we derive and test a set of expectations regarding rioter spatial decision making developed from theories originally intended to explain patterns of urban crime when law and order prevail—crime pattern and social disorganization theory—and consider theories of collective behavior and contagion. To do this, we use data for all riot‐related incidents that occurred in London in August 2011 that were detected by the police. Unlike most studies of victimization, we use a random utility model to examine simultaneously how the features of the destinations selected by rioters, the origins of their journeys, and the characteristics of the offenders influence offender spatial decision making. The results demonstrate that rioter target choices were far from random and provide support for all three types of theory, but for crime pattern theory in particular. For example, rioters were more likely to engage in the disorder close to their home location and to select areas that contained routine activity nodes and transport hubs, and they were less likely to cross the Thames River. In terms of contagion, rioters were found to be more likely to target areas that had experienced rioting in the previous 24 hours. From a policy perspective, the findings provide insight into the types of areas that may be most vulnerable during riots and why this is the case, and when particular areas are likely to be at an elevated risk of this type of disorder.     

When is violence planned?

We examine what types of violent offenses tend to be planned using self-report data from a nationally representative sample of state and federal inmates. We find mixed support for the idea that predatory offenses are more likely to be planned than dispute-related offenses. As expected, robbery offenders are much more likely to report that they planned their crime ahead of time than homicide and physical assault offenders. However, sexual assault offenders are no more likely to report planning than homicide offenders. We also find mixed support for the idea that domestic violence-the supposed crime of passion-is less likely to be planned than violent offenses involving strangers. Finally, we find substantial demographic variation depending on type of crime. Robberies involving offenders of lower socioeconomic status and homicides and assaults involving African American offenders and victims are less likely to involve planning.     

DETERRENCE,CRIMINAL OPPORTUNITIES,AND POLICE

In this article, we join three distinct literatures on crime control—the deterrence literature, the policing literature as it relates to crime control, and the environmental and opportunity perspectives literature. Based on empirical findings and theory from these literatures, we pose a mathematical model of the distribution of criminal opportunities and offender decision making on which of those opportunities to victimize. Criminal opportunities are characterized in terms of the risk of apprehension that attends their victimization. In developing this model, our primary focus is on how police might affect the distribution of criminal opportunities that are attractive to would‐be offenders. The theoretical model we pose, however, is generalizable to explain how changes in other relevant target characteristics, such as potential gain, could affect target attractiveness. We demonstrate that the model has important implications for the efficiency and effectiveness of police deployment strategies such as hot spots policing, random patrol, and problem‐oriented policing. The theoretical structure also makes clear why the clearance rate is a fundamentally flawed metric of police performance. Future research directions suggested by the theoretical model are discussed.     

STICK-UP,STREET CULTURE,AND OFFENDER MOTIVATION*

Motivation is the central, yet arguably the most assumed, causal variable in the etiology of criminal behavior. Criminology's incomplete and imprecise understanding of this construct can be traced to the discipline's strong emphasis on background risk factors, open to the exclusion of subjective foreground conditions. In this article, we attempt to remedy this by exploring the decision-making processes of active armed robbers in real-life settings and circumstances. Our aim is to understand how and why these offenders move from an unmotivated state to one in which they are determined to commit robbery. Drawing from semistructured interviews with 86 active armed robbers, we argue that while the decision to commit robbery stems most directly from a perceived need for fast cash, this decision is activated, mediated, and shaped by participation in street culture. Street culture, and its constituent conduct norms, represents an essential intervening variable linking criminal motivation to background risk factors and subjective foreground conditions.     

INFORMAL SURVEILLANCE AND STREET CRIME: A COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP*

The systemic crime model predicts that informal surveillance of space reduces street crime. Conversely, community decline theory posits that street crime reduces informal surveillance by increasing residents' perception of risk and fear. Moreover, functions of crime theory suggests that some types of crime may increase surveillance. Using data for 100 urban neighborhoods, the analysis examines these predictions and disentangles reciprocal effects. Baseline recursive equations indicate that informal surveillance is inversely associated with robbery/stranger assault, and that robbery/stranger assault is inversely associated with informal surveillance. In contrast, burglary rates are not affected by informal surveillance, but burglary has a positive effect on surveillance when robbery/stranger assault is controlled. Simultaneous equations indicate that robbery/stranger assault has a moderately strong inverse effect on informal surveillance, and that it is mediated by residents' perceptions of risk. When risk perception is controlled, informal surveillance has an inverse effect on robbery/stranger assault. The latter analysis also indicates that burglary increases surveillance, suggesting that some types of crime serve positive functions. The results, therefore, lend support to systemic, community decline, and functions of crime theory, and they suggest that the relationship between informal surveillance and crime is complex. Implications for community crime research are discussed.     

The Overrepresentation of Juvenile Crime Proportions in Robbery Clearance Statistics

Many, especially casual observers, interpret juvenile arrest statistics to bea measure of crime committed by juveniles. Others argue that clearancestatistics are a more representative index of the relative responsibility ofjuveniles. Using data from the FBI's National Incident-Based ReportingSystem, this paper explores the likelihoods of arrests for juvenile andadult robbery offenders. The findings show that juvenile robbery suspectsare 23% more likely to be arrested than adults, and 32% more likely aftercontrolling for other incident characteristics. Analyses also found anincreased likelihood of arrest in robbery incidents in which (1) the victimwas a juvenile, a female, or white; (2) the offender was white or female;and (3) the victim was injured. The presence of a weapon was not relatedto the likelihood of arrest. The differential influences of specificincident characteristics on the likelihood of arrest for juveniles andadults highlight the underlying biases of law enforcement statistics inassessing the juvenile component of crime.     

Do perceptions of punishment vary between white-collar and street crimes?

Much has been learned about the relationship between sanction threat perceptions and criminal activity, yet little remains known about the factors that are associated with sanction threat perceptions. Moreover, because most researchers had studied deterrence within the context of street crime, even less is known about the factors that relate to sanction threat perceptions for white-collar crime. This study used data from a national probability sample to examine whether the determinants of perceived sanction certainty and severity for street crime were different from white-collar crime. Using robbery and fraud as two exemplars, the findings indicated that while public perceptions of sanction certainty and severity suggested that street criminals were more likely to be caught and be sentenced to more severe sanctions than white-collar criminals, respondent's perceptions of which type of crime should be more severely punished indicated that both robbery and fraud were equally likely to be perceived ‘on par.’ Additional results indicated that the correlates of certainty and severity were more similar than different, but that the results differed according to whether respondents were asked about the punishment that white-collar offenders were likely to receive as opposed to what they should receive.     

Perceived arrest risk,psychic rewards,and offense specialization: A partial test of rational choice theory†

In prior tests of Beckerian rational choice theory, the notion that individuals are responsive to the (dis)incentives associated with crime has been supported. Much of this research has comprised composite scores of perceived rewards and risks of multiple, often disparate, crime types that are then used to predict “general” offending behavior. Although the results of such prior tests are informative, we believe that this tendency has resulted in two shortcomings. First, a central component of mathematical rational choice theory is overlooked, namely, that responsivity to incentives will be crime specific. That is, offenders should prefer crime types that subjectively offer greater rewards and fewer risks relative to other crimes. Second, individual differences in offending specialization are not addressed, of which Clarke and Cornish (1985) and Shover (1996) argued rational choice theories are well suited to explain. Using a sample of serious offenders, we find that in a given time period, individuals are more likely to engage in crime types they viewed as more intrinsically rewarding and less risky compared with other crimes. Furthermore, individuals displayed greater specialization in violence to the extent they view violence as more rewarding and less risky than property offenses     

聚众哄抢财物与聚众“打砸抢”的刑法教义学

聚众哄抢财物行为通常成立聚众哄抢罪;哄抢使用中厂房的物资设备的,是聚众哄抢罪与破坏生产经营罪的想象竞合犯,以聚众哄抢罪定罪处罚;聚众是与哄抢并列的行为或者是哄抢行为的方式或状态,说明了聚众哄抢罪的必要共同犯罪特征;成立聚众哄抢罪未必要有首要分子组织、策划或纠集;聚众哄抢罪的对象是他人占有的动产或者不动产中可以分离的部分;哄抢的本质是公然抢夺或盗窃;不符合聚众哄抢罪的哄抢财物行为可认定为抢夺罪或盗窃罪;聚众哄抢罪与抢夺罪、盗窃罪的共犯有差异;哄抢人采取对人暴力或胁迫等方式,压制被害人反抗而哄抢财物的成立抢劫罪,聚众哄抢罪可以成立事后抢劫;聚众"打砸抢"是聚众实施某些寻衅滋事行为的特别规定;"致人伤残、死亡"应限制解释为聚众"打砸"人所致;"毁坏或者抢走公私财物"是抢劫罪的法律拟制,首要分子以外的人成立寻衅滋事罪(或与敲诈勒索罪、聚众哄抢罪、故意毁坏财物罪等的想象竞合犯)。     

TESTING A BAYESIAN LEARNING THEORY OF DETERRENCE AMONG SERIOUS JUVENILE OFFENDERS*

The effect of criminal experience on risk perceptions is of central importance to deterrence theory but has been vastly understudied. This article develops a realistic Bayesian learning model of how individuals will update their risk perceptions over time in response to the signals they receive during their offending experiences. This model implies a simple function that we estimate to determine the deterrent effect of an arrest. We find that an individual who commits one crime and is arrested will increase his or her perceived probability of being caught by 6.3 percent compared with if he or she had not been arrested. We also find evidence that the more informative the signal received by an individual is, the more he or she will respond to it, which is consistent with more experienced offenders responding less to an arrest than less experienced offenders do. Parsing our results out by type of crime indicates that an individual who is arrested for an aggressive crime will increase both his or her aggressive crime risk perception as well as his or her income‐generating crime risk perception, although the magnitude of the former may be slightly larger. This implies that risk perception updating, and thus potentially deterrence, may be partially, although not completely, crime specific.     

GENERAL THEORY OF SPATIAL CRIME PATTERNS*

I propose a general theory for examining the spatial distribution of crime by specifically addressing and estimating the spatial distribution of the residences of offenders, targets, guardians, and their respective expected movement patterns across space and time. The model combines information on the locations of persons, typical spatial movement patterns, and situational characteristics of locations to create estimates of crime potential at various locations at various points in time and makes four key contributions. First, the equations make the ideas involved in the theory explicit, and they highlight points at which our current state of empirical evidence is lacking. Second, by creating measures of spatial “potentials” of offenders, targets, and guardians, this theory provides a precise grounding for operationalizing spatial effects in studies of place and crime. Third, the equations provide an explicit consideration of offenders and where they might travel and, therefore, incorporates offenders into crime‐and‐place research. Fourth, these equations suggest ways that researchers could use simulations to predict stable patterns, as well as changes, in the levels of crime at both micro and macro scales. Finally, I provide an empirical demonstration of the added explanatory power provided by the theory to a study of place and crime.     

Modeling the Distribution of Sentence Length Decisions Under a Guidelines System: An Application of Quantile Regression Models

How should sentencing disparity be assessed when decisions are constrained under a sentencing guidelines system? Much of the debate over the measurement of sentence disparity under a guidelines system has focused primarily on using specific values from within the sentencing grid (e.g., minimum recommended sentence) or on using interaction terms in regression models to capture the non-additive effects of offense severity and prior record on length of sentence. In this paper, I propose an alternative method for assessing sentencing disparity that uses quantile regression models. These models offer several advantages over traditional OLS analyses (and related linear models) of sentence length, by allowing for an examination of the effects of case and offender characteristics across the full distribution of sentence lengths for a given sample of offenders. The analysis of the distribution of sentence lengths with quantile regression models allows for an examination of questions such as: Do offender characteristics, such as race or offense severity, have the same effect on sentence length for the 10% of offenders who receive the shortest sentences as they do for the 10% of offenders who receive the longest sentences? I illustrate the application and interpretation of these models using 1998 sentencing data from Pennsylvania. Key findings show that the effects of case and offender characteristics are variable across the distribution of sentence lengths, meaning that traditional linear models assuming a constant effect fail to capture important differences in how case and offender characteristics affect punishment decisions. I discuss the implications of these findings for understanding sentencing disparitites, as well as other possible applications of quantile regression models in the study of crime and the criminal justice system.     

Spatial Patterns of Robbery at Tourism Sites: A Case Study of the Vieux Carré in New Orleans

This paper looks at the connection between spatial patterns of robbery within the framework of routine activities theory. This theoretical perspective sees robbery (and other crimes) as occurring when three factors converge: suitable targets, motivated offenders and guardianship. The Eighth and part of the First Police Districts of New Orleans become target rich environments during periods of time when large numbers of tourists and conventioneers are in the city. The city certainly has the neighborhoods of highly concentrated poverty and disorganization that tend to be criminogenic and produce motivated offenders. The spatial distribution of robbery is hypothesized to be a function of the presence or absence of guardianship. In order to test this hypothesis two types of data are examined: robberies (simple, armed, both successful and attempted) that occurred during the convention and tourism season and patterns of deployment and patrol in these areas. Preliminary results indicate that simple tourist/conventioneer robbery victimizations tend to be concentrated within tourist attraction areas while aggravated tourist/conventioneer robbery is concentrated in places that are primarily residential and where there are no attractions and no concentrated police presence. This is also an area of ingress and egress for people from perimeter neighborhoods of highly concentrated poverty and disorganization.