Risk factors for recidivism among spousal assault and spousal homicide offenders

Abstract

The Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide (SARA; Kropp et al., 1995) is a 20-item checklist for the structured professional assessment of risk for partner violence. This study reported on a retrospective follow-up of file-based SARA assessments of offenders convicted 1988–1990 in Sweden. A total of 88 male batterers referred for court-ordered forensic psychiatric evaluations were included. During the 7-year follow-up, twenty-five (28%) were re-convicted of spousal assault. A few SARA items were statistically significantly associated with increased risk of recidivism, namely: Items #3, Past violation of conditional release or community supervision, #10 Personality disorder with anger, impulsivity, or behavioural instability (psychopathy), and #16 Extreme minimisation or denial of spousal assault history. The severity of the index crime (#18 Severe and/or sexual assault) was negatively related to risk for recidivism during follow-up. Offenders scoring above the median on the SARA were at more than 2.5 higher the risk for recidivism than those scoring below the median. In terms of predictive validity, the SARA actuarial score exhibited a marginal but statistically significant improvement over chance in this sample.     

Assessment and management of risk for intimate partner violence by police officers using the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a crime that is present in all countries, seriously impacts victims, and demands a great deal of time and resources from the criminal justice system. The current study examined the use of the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide, 2nd ed. (SARA; Kropp, Hart, Webster, & Eaves, 1995), a structured professional judgment risk assessment and management tool for IPV, by police officers in Sweden over a follow-up of 18 months. SARA risk assessments had significant predictive validity with respect to risk management recommendations made by police, as well as with recidivism as indexed by subsequent contacts with police. Risk management mediated the association between risk assessment and recidivism: High levels of intervention were associated with decreased recidivism in high risk cases, but with increased recidivism in low risk cases. The findings support the potential utility of police-based risk assessment and management of IPV, and in particular the belief that appropriately structured risk assessment and management decisions can prevent violence.     

Workplace Assessment of Targeted Violence Risk: The Development and Reliability of the WAVR‐21

This study describes the development of the WAVR‐21, a structured professional judgment guide for the assessment of workplace targeted violence, and presents initial interrater reliability results. The 21‐item instrument codes both static and dynamic risk factors and change, if any, over time. Five critical items or red flag indicators assess violent motives, ideation, intent, weapons skill, and pre‐attack planning. Additional items assess the contribution of mental disorder, negative personality factors, situational factors, and a protective factor. Eleven raters each rated 12 randomly assigned cases from actual files of workplace threat scenarios. Summary interrater reliability correlation coefficients (ICCs) for overall presence of risk factors, risk of violence, and seriousness of the violent act were in the fair to good range, similar to other structured professional judgment instruments. A subgroup of psychologists who were coders produced an ICC of 0.76 for overall presence of risk factors. Some of the individual items had poor reliability for both clinical and statistical reasons. The WAVR‐21 appears to improve the structuring and organizing of empirically based risk‐relevant data and may enhance communication and decision making.     

Prevalence of Spousal Violence and Associated Risk Factors: Facts from Pakistan Demographics and Health Survey 2012–13

The current study aims to investigate the risk factors associated with the prevalence of spousal violence among the women from 15 to 49 years of age in Pakistan in their marital relationship. Secondary data collected in Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) 2012–2013 is used. In the survey, respondents were selected using probability sampling technique from all the four provinces of Pakistan. Modified and shortened version of Conflict Tactics Scale is used to measure physical and psychological spousal violence among the women perpetuated by their ever husbands. Prevalence of physical, psychological, any type of spousal violence and associated risk factors were analyzed by unadjusted odd ratios (OR) and adjusted odd ratios (aOR). Education, profession, ethnicity and wealth index are found significant risk factors associated with spousal violence. Odds of experiencing spousal violence were higher among the poorer (aOR 1.700 CI 1.272–2.271) as compared to their richer counterparts. Moreover, the prevalence of spousal violence was found the highest (aOR 2.730 CI 2.162–3.447) in Pushton ethnic group. The study recommends improving the literacy rate and economic well-being of the poorer to address the problem of spousal violence in Pakistan.     

The Impact of Confidence on the Accuracy of Structured Professional and Actuarial Violence Risk Judgments in a Sample of Forensic Psychiatric Patients

Some previous research indicates that confidence affects the accuracy of probabilistic clinical ratings of risk for violence among civil psychiatric inpatients. The current study investigated the impact of confidence on actuarial and structured professional risk assessments, in a forensic psychiatric population, using community violence as the outcome criteria. Raters completed the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme for a sample of 100 forensic psychiatric patients. Results showed that accuracy of both actuarial judgments (HCR-20 total scores) and structured professional judgments (of low, moderate, and high risk) were substantially more accurate when raters were more confident about their judgments. Findings suggest that confidence of ratings should be studied as a potentially important mediator of structured professional and actuarial risk judgments.     

Interrater reliability of Risk Matrix 2000/s

Actuarial risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders are often used in high-stakes decision making and therefore should be subject to stringent reliability and validity testing. Furthermore, those involved in the risk assessment of sexual offenders should be aware of the factors that may affect the reliability of these instruments. The present study examined the interrater reliability of the Risk Matrix 2000/s between one field rater and one independent rater with a sample of more than 100 sexual offenders. The results indicated good interrater reliability of the tool, although reliability varies from item to item. A number of factors were identified that seem to reduce the reliability of scoring. The present findings are strengthened by examining interrater reliability of the tool in the usual practitioner context and by calculating a range of reliability statistics. Strategies are suggested to increase reliability in the use of actuarial tools in routine practice.     

Effectiveness of Risk-Needs-Responsivity-Based Family Violence Programs with Male Offenders

The following presents the outcome of an evaluation of family violence prevention programs for male offenders. The moderate and high intensity programs were designed and implemented to conform to the Risk-Needs-Responsivity (RNR) principles. Results showed that program participation significantly reduced attitudes that supported violence against women and improved pro-social skills related to non-abusive relationships; treatment effects were moderate to high. Parole officer feedback generally reported positive changes in behavior and attitude associated with treatment. A post-release follow-up indicated that program completion significantly reduced spousal violence and general violent recidivism. Program participation did not, however, have a significant impact on non-violent crime. Results indicate that domestic violence programs respecting the RNR principles may be effective in reducing partner violence.     

Prevalence and correlates of physical spousal violence against women in slum and nonslum areas of urban Bangladesh

This study explores the prevalence and correlates of past-year physical violence against women in slum and nonslum areas of urban Bangladesh. The authors use multivariate logistic regression to analyze data from the 2006 Urban Health Survey, a population-based survey of 9,122 currently married women aged between 15 and 49 who were selected using a multistage cluster sampling design. The prevalence of reported past-year physical spousal violence is 31%. Prevalence of past-year physical spousal violence is higher in slums (35%) than in nonslums (20%). Slapping/arm-twisting and pushing/shaking/ throwing something at the women are the most commonly reported acts of physical abuse. Multivariate analysis shows that the risk of physical spousal abuse is lower among older women, women with post-primary education, and those belonging to rich households and women whose husbands considered their opinion in decision making. Women are at higher risk of abuse if they had many children, believe that married woman should work if the husband is not making enough money, and approve wife-beating norms. This study serves to confirm the commonness of physical spousal abuse in urban Bangladesh, demonstrating the seriousness of this multifaceted phenomenon as a social and public health issue. The present findings suggest the need for comprehensive prevention and intervention strategies that capitalize on the interplay of individual and sociocultural factors that cause physical spousal violence. Our study adds to a growing literature documenting domestic violence against women in urban areas of developing south Asian nations.     

Spousal violence in Bangladesh as reported by men: prevalence and risk factors

To study risk factors for perpetration of spousal violence among men in Bangladesh, self-reported Demographic and Health Surveys data from 2,780 married men using bivariate and multivariate techniques are analyzed. Of the respondents, 74% report having ever been violent toward their wives; 37% report violence in the past year. Nonnormative behaviors increase the risk for violence: Men who marry more than once, men who use drugs, and men who are unfaithful to their wives are all significantly more likely to report violence against their spouses. Egalitarian attitudes toward women do not decrease the risk for violence. However, attitudes explicitly about wife-beating are the strongest predictor of violence: Men who believe wife-beating is acceptable are more than 4 times as likely to report recent violence against their wives. While men's self-reports of spousal violence indicate that wife-beating is prevalent in Bangladesh, the results indicate opportunities for programmatic intervention.     

Cross-validation of the self-appraisal questionnaire: a tool for assessing violent and nonviolent recidivism with female offenders

The Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ) is a 72-item self-report measure designed to predict violent and nonviolent recidivism among adult male criminal offenders. It was administered to 91 female offenders incarcerated in Pennsylvania and 183 incarcerated in Singapore correctional systems. Results indicated that the SAQ has sound psychometric properties, with acceptable reliability and concurrent and predictive validity for assessing violent and nonviolent recidivism. There were no significant differences between the scores of African American and Asian offenders and the responses of the White offenders. Similar to the findings from male offenders, the present results provide some support for the validity of the SAQ in the prediction of violent and nonviolent recidivism risk among White, African American, and Asian female offenders.     

Spousal Violence Among Immigrants from the Former Soviet Union—General Population and Welfare Recipients

This study examines psychological and marital risk factors of 322 immigrant FSU couples in Israel. The research focuses on two populations: the general immigrant population and the welfare immigrant population; the latter group is comprised of couples treated in welfare service departments. The dependent variable is spousal violence. The independent variables are: education level, gender, symbolic loss, psychological adjustment (both positive and negative emotions) and the “cultural–familial gap”. Surprisingly, it was found that the welfare immigrant population reports less spousal violence than the regular immigrant population. In addition, a correlation was found between spousal violence and the following factors: higher education, lower level of psychological adjustment and greater familial-cultural gap between the country of origin and Israel. The discussion focuses on the characteristics of FSU immigrants—educational level and orientation towards cultural preservation—within the Israeli context that connects to psychological responses which, in turn, creates spousal violence.     

The Timeline Followback Spousal Violence Interview to Assess Physical Aggression Between Intimate Partners: Reliability and Validity

The psychometric properties of the Timeline Followback Spousal Violence interview (TLFB-SV), a calendar method used to assess daily patterns and frequency of spousal violence, were evaluated. Men (N = 104) entering a spousal violence treatment program, along with their female partners, were interviewed with the TLFB-SV at pretreatment, posttreatment, and quarterly thereafter for 1 year and asked to identify days of male-to-female and female-to-male physical aggression that had occurred between them. For posttreatment and follow-up interviews, participants maintained a weekly diary, in which they catalogued the days on which acts of spousal violence occurred. The subscale scores derived from the TLFB-SV, the proportion of days of any violence, and proportion of days of severe violence for each partner were calculated for each assessment interval. The TLFB-SV subscales had excellent temporal stability and concurrent and discriminant validity. Interpartner agreement on TLFB-SV subscale scores and agreement between partners on days when spousal violence occurred was low at pretreatment, but was high for the other assessment periods.     

Twenty years of progress in violence risk assessment

Violence risk assessment has advanced considerably in the last 20 years. In the 1980s, leading professionals questioned the very possibility of valid violence risk assessments; now, many of the major risk factors have been identified, and professional debate focuses on how best to combine these risk factors into meaningful evaluations. An important contributor to this advance in knowledge has been the rise of meta-analytic reviews. Through quantitative summaries, the cumulative findings of small, potentially insignificant studies have provided important answers to questions concerning the effective assessment and treatment of violent offenders.     

Assessing the Risk of Domestic Violence Reoffending: A Validation Study

Little research has been conducted to validate available instruments for assessing the risk of domestic violence reoffending, especially research using some form of prospective design. This study uses a prospective design to determine the reliability and validity of the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument (DVSI). The analysis is based on a sample of 1,465 male domestic violence offenders selected consecutively over a 9-month period. Data on reoffending were collected in a 6-month follow-up period from a subsample of the victims (N = 125) of these perpetrators and from official records for all perpetrators during an 18-month follow-up period. The empirical results suggest that the DVSI was administered reliably, and they provide significant evidence of the concurrent, discriminant, and predictive validity of this instrument. Implications for further research and utilization of the DVSI are discussed.     

Measuring violence risk and outcomes among Mexican American adolescent females

Central to the development of culturally competent violence prevention programs for Hispanic youth is the development of psychometrically sound violence risk and outcome measures for this population. A study was conducted to determine the psychometric properties of two commonly used violence measures, in this case for Mexican American adolescent females. The Conflict Tactics Scales (CTS2) and the Past Feelings and Acts of Violence Scale (PFAV) were analyzed to examine their interitem reliability, criterion validity, and discriminant validity. A sample of 150 low-risk and 150 high-risk adolescent females was studied. Discriminant validity was indicated by the perpetrator negotiation scale and by the victim psychological aggression and sexual coercion scales of the CTS2 and the PFAV. Analysis indicates that the CTS2 scales and the PFAV demonstrate adequate reliability, whereas strong criterion validity was evidenced by eight of the CTS2 scales and the PFAV.     

Domestic Violence against Women in Cambodia: Husband’s Control,Frequency of Spousal Discussion,and Domestic Violence Reported by Cambodian Women

This study sought to examine the effects of husband’s control and frequency of spousal discussion on domestic violence against Cambodian married women, using the 2005 Cambodia Demographic and Health Survey data. The sample included 1,707 married women, aged 16–49 (M = 35.14). Structural Equation Modeling showed that husband’s control positively predicted both emotional and physical violence. Frequency of spousal discussion positively predicted emotional violence, an association consistent with the idea that a husband holding patriarchal beliefs would interpret women’s more frequent discussion as a violation of Cambodian norms for quiet, submissive wives. Frequency of spousal discussion and husband’s control were positively correlated. The role of gender issues in husband’s control and frequency of spousal discussion are discussed with respect to violence in the lives of Cambodian women.     

Methodological development: structured outcome assessment and community risk monitoring (SORM)

This paper describes an effort to develop a clinical tool for the continuous monitoring of risk for violence in forensic mental health clients who have left their institutions and who are dwelling in the community on a conditional release basis. The model is called Structured Outcome Assessment and Community Risk Monitoring (SORM). The SORM consists of 30 dynamic factors and each factor in SORM is assessed in two ways: The current absence, presence or partial och intermittent presence of the factors, which is an actuarial (systematized and 'objective') assessment. Secondly, the risk effect, i.e. whether the presence/absence of factors currently increases, decreases or is perceived as unrelated to violence risk, is a clinical (or impressionistic) assessment. Thus, the factors considered via the SORM can be coded as risk factors or protective factors (or as factors unimportant to risk of violence) depending on circumstances that apply in the individual case. Further, the SORM has a built-in module for gathering idiographical information about risk-affecting contextual factors. The use of the SORM and its potential as a risk monitoring instrument is illustrated via preliminary data and case vignettes from an ongoing multicenter project. In this research project, patients leaving any of the 9 participating forensic hospitals in Sweden is assessed at release on a variety of static background factors, and the SORM is then administered every 30 days for 2 years.     

Predictive Validity of the SVR-20 and Static-99 in a Dutch Sample of Treated Sex Offenders

In this retrospective study, the interrater reliability and predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sexual violence are presented. The SVR-20, an instrument for structured professional judgment, and the Static-99, an actuarial risk assessment instrument, were coded from file information of 122 sex offenders who were admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital between 1974 and 1996 (average follow-up period 140 months). Recidivism data (reconvictions) from the Ministry of Justice were related to the risk assessments. The base rate for sexual recidivism was 39%, for nonsexual violent offenses 46%, and for general offenses 74%. Predictive validity of the SVR-20 was good (total score: r = .50, AUC = .80; final risk judgment: r = .60, AUC = .83), of the Static-99 moderate (total score: r = .38, AUC =.71; risk category: r = .30, AUC = .66). The SVR-20 final risk judgment was a significantly better predictor of sexual recidivism than the Static-99 risk category.     

Risk assessment for intimate partner violence: how can the police assess risk?

ABSTRACT

The use of risk assessment tools by frontline police for intimate partner violence has the potential to make a difference to policing. In this paper, the key aspects of intimate partner violence risk assessment are outlined critically with a particular emphasis on how they can be used in practice. Two, evidence-based, exemplars are reviewed. These are the Ontario Domestic Abuse Risk Assessment (ODARA), an example of the actuarial approach, and the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER), an example of the structured professional judgement approach. In addition, the victim giving his or her own appraisal of risk is discussed. All three approaches have some validity when administered properly but practical factors reduce this validity. The content of the risk assessment tools are outlined and practical concerns such as training, time to administer, reliability, validity, and the overlap of intimate partner violence with other forms of offending are discussed. A balanced overview of the strengths, weaknesses and future potential of intimate partner violence risk assessment is provided.