东南亚地区形势:2010年

得益于中国和印度的经济增长,东南亚国家受世界经济危机的冲击要小得多,经济复苏的步伐也快一些.东南亚地区的"人民力量"运动此起彼伏,在一些国家,街头政治成为常态,这种状态不利于国家政治民主化和现代化的进程,实际是民主的反动.奥巴马上台后,美国政府加强了在东南亚的存在与影响力.中国-东盟自由贸易区正式启动,标志着中国-东盟关系进入一个崭新的阶段.     

NGO与东南亚政治社会转型

自20世纪80年代开始,NGO(非政府组织)在东南亚出现快速增长趋势.数量众多的NGO通过在扶贫开发、环境保护、女性、社会保障、人权、医疗卫生等领域的积极活动,提高和扩大了自身的社会地位和政治影响,成为促进东南亚多元社会形成,推动经济、社会和环境的全面协调发展和民主化进程的一支新生力量.     

民主化和区域主义相关性研究:东盟的地区实践

民主化的实践对于东南亚区域主义产生了深远影响。随着东南亚地区合作的不断推进,政治转型成为该地区当下所面临的重要议题。本文拟结合民主化与区域主义两者关系的分析,探索传统上以精英为主导的区域主义正在经历的深刻嬗变。研究表明,民主化对于东南亚区域主义发展范式的影响是复杂的,以公民社会为主要载体的参与式区域主义方兴未艾,两种类型的区域主义勾画了东盟地区治理的图景。     

Diversity of Southeast Asian Capitalisms: Evolving State-Business Relations in Malaysia

ABSTRACT

Empirical gaps exist in the literature about diverse forms of capitalism. The first is thematic, involving the incomplete institutional and political account of how the state can, through a series of policies, shape the development of domestic enterprises. The second gap is regional in nature: this literature does not deal with the historical development of firms that have played a central role in industrialising Southeast Asia. One reason for this is that since most existing theories are based on Western contexts, they are theoretically ill-equipped to deal with the concepts of power and state-business nexuses when the political system is not democratic in nature. But state-business ties, where politicians in power distribute government-generated rents on a selective basis, have resulted in diverse business systems such as highly diversified conglomerates, state-owned companies and small- and medium-scale enterprises. This article deals with these theoretical and empirical gaps. To better understand the nature and implications of evolving state-business ties in Southeast Asia, this topic is examined through the lens of regulation theory. To appreciate the complexity and implications of state-business configurations on the political system and forms of enterprise development, a case study of Malaysia is provided.     

Political Finance Regimes in Southeast Asia: Introduction

ABSTRACT

The three articles in this themed collection investigate the interplay between political finance regimes and the quality of democracy in Southeast Asia. Andreas Ufen's piece on political finance in Malaysia and Singapore argues that the semi-authoritarian regimes in both states have blocked the reform of campaign and party funding regulations in order to keep their opposition in check. The article on Indonesia, authored by Marcus Mietzner, showcases the country's dysfunctional political finance system as a major hurdle toward further democratization. In their contribution on Thailand, Napisa Waitoolkiat and Paul Chambers show that weak political finance regulations have contributed significantly to the shallowness of Thai parties. Overall, the collection demonstrates that without meaningful political finance reforms, Southeast Asia's democratic stagnation is likely to persist for many years to come.     

东南亚地区形势:2009年

2009年,影响东南亚地区形势最重要的外部因素,是全球金融海啸引发的发达国家经济衰退,影响的深度与广度,取决于发达国家的经济衰退持续的时间,刚刚从1997年金融危机中走出来的东南亚国家又将经受一次重大的考验.从政治层面看,东南亚在2009年将会是比较平稳的一年,印尼的大选不会出现大的波澜;泰国在经历了几年的动荡之后,人心思定,街头政治不得人心;马来西亚两大政党联盟--国民阵线和人民联盟争权夺利,但是,这种斗争将会限制在制度范围内.在地区国际关系方面,发达国家忙于国内救火,自顾不暇,而东南亚两个最大的邻居--中国和印度则是风景这边独好,东南亚地区发展进程中的中国因素和印度因素将会进一步凸显.     

Democracy and development: With Special attention to Korea

Academic discussions on the relationship between regime type and economic growth of developing countries have been drawn to three linkages, the contribution of a certain type of political authoritarianism to rapid industrial transformation, the trend towards democracy after a long period of sustained economic development, and possible negative economic consequences of democratization itself. There are theoretical reasons to support the first two assertions, but the third proposition is less tenable. The case of Korea shows that democratic changes have resulted in higher consumption, have induced inflationary policy, and have led to wage increases in excess of productivity gains. However, these might well be transitional rather than steady-state phenomena. Political learning can prevent young democracies from becoming captives to distributional coalitions.     

东南亚地区形势:2006年

进入2006年以来,来自东南亚的一些坏消息频频传来,菲律宾发生泥石流,死亡上千人。泰国和菲律宾政府再次面对反对派的严峻挑战。尽管有这些坏消息,但对于大多数东南亚国家来说,2006年可能是一个好年头。经过几年的努力,新加坡、马来西亚和泰国已经从金融危机中走出来,重新进入一个新的增长期。在政治方面,大部分东南亚国家已经初步完成了从权威政治体制向民主政治体制的过渡,然而,这种转变带给一些国家的并不是经济发展与人民的福利, 而是更多的混乱。在安全方面,恐怖主义仍然是许多国家面临的严重威胁。在对外关系方面,面对迅速崛起的中国,东盟正在不断调整对华关系,新型的中国—东盟关系正在建立。     

Indonesian local party politics

Since the fall of Soeharto in 1998, economic reforms have been linked to internationally supported programs to introduce market-facilitating “good governance” practices, which include the promotion of democratic elections and administrative and fiscal decentralization. International development organizations have thus put forward decentralization as necessary, essentially, to save Indonesia from becoming an irredeemably “failed state” — an issue that has now grown in importance because of the current nature of Western security concerns in Southeast Asia. But this article suggests that the way decentralization has actually taken place can only be understood in relation to the entrenchment of a democratic political regime run by the logic of money politics and violence, and primarily dominated by reconstituted old New Order elites. Taking local party politics in North Sumatra and East Java as case studies, the article shows that local constellations of power, with an interest in the perpetuation of predatory politics, still offer significant sites of resistance to the global neoliberal economic and political agenda.     

The economic development of Vietnam,Laos, and Cambodia

The three states of Indochina are engaged in the most radical economic transformation of any of the nations in Southeast Asia. Of the three countries, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, with a population of 70 million, is the most important to the market economies of Asia and the West. Although their individual situations vary greatly, the systemic reforms of all three countries emphasize decentralization and privatization, and permit market forces considerable scope in determining economic activity. They remain several decades behind most of their counterparts in the rest of Southeast Asia with respect to the standards of living of their populations and the overall development of their economies. With the end of the Cold War, they have had to redirect their external political relationships and must contemplate internal political reforms occasioned by influences accompanying a new economic orientation. In Vietnam and Laos, the Communist party is in command of the society’s fundamental decisions; it is determined to retain political control. In Cambodia, pluralism and a form of democracy are mandated by the United Nations and by the new Cambodian constitution. Over the near term, full membership in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will be important to all three countries once their economies become compatible with the other ASEANs.     

Sisterhood is local: The rise of feminist journals in Southeast Asia

Abstract

Whether as central members in their own households, as workers in the formal or informal economy, as political figures or as performers and artists, Southeast Asian women have contributed and continue to contribute to the economic, social, and artistic development of their societies. Yet it is only recently that we have begun to look at their lives separately from—yet vital to our understanding of—those societies and their histories. Over the past twenty years publications about Southeast Asian women have grown both in number and scope. Since 1991, the University of Wisconsin-Madison has added some six hundred new titles about Southeast Asian women to its collection—double the number it acquired in the years 1981 to 1985 and thirty percent more than in the previous five-year period (1986–1990). More impressive than the sheer number of publications is the scope of issues being addressed. Many topics such as prostitution, domestic abuse, or women factory workers were inconceivable just ten years ago. But the most notable and positive change over the past twenty years has been the growth of publishing by the women of Southeast Asia. Women's publishing, especially feminist publishing, is best illustrated by the rise of feminist periodicals and newsletters that serve to unite women. The myriad of voices found in these periodicals are those of women who speak different languages and who come from vastly different economic backgrounds. We talk about the emerging global village, but these periodicals demonstrate that sisterhood may indeed be more local than global.     

The transition in the political economy of South Korean development

This article analyzes the current transition in the political economy of South Korea in the context of political democratization and economic development. Because South Korea can be regarded as a case in which successful economic growth preceded political democratization, the article reviews the advantage and the disadvantage of late industrialization and its limitations. It discusses rising conflicts of interest among economic agents, labor disputes, and the erosion of international competitiveness. The article also reviews the sociopolitical reform program advanced by the new administration and its ramifications for the economic prospects. The article concludes that the Korean economy will continue to grow but not as fast as it had grown in the past and that the new political environment will play a critical role in determining the characteristics of capitalism in South Korea. The success of future economic development will depend on the stability of the political system and the national capacity to resolve conflict of interests.     

东南亚华人在中国软实力提升中的推动作用与制约因素

冷战结束以来,随着中国国力的增长,中国与东盟国家关系的进一步发展深化,中国在东南亚的影响力有日渐增强之势.华侨华人作为一个特殊的移民群体,他们不仅在促进中国与东南亚国家政经合作和文化交流等方面发挥着桥梁作用,无形中也推动了中国在东南亚软实力的提升.主要表现为通过对中国发展模式和先进经验的介绍和引荐、对中华传统文化的传承和传播、对中国外交政策与外交行为的支持与解释等方式,在促进东南亚国家对中国的了解与认同的同时,大大提升了中国的国家形象和影响力.未来如何更有效地借用这一资源,减少并消除相关制约因素,促进中国软实力的建设与发展,实现中国与东盟国家的双赢,是值得进一步思考和关注的问题.     

Partisan Attachment and Democracy in Mexico: Some Cautionary Observations

Party identification is a central concept in studies of parties and elections. Drawing from an extensive literature linking the concept of party identification to the understanding of Mexico's electoral politics, this article explores how the Mexican experience informs the understanding of party identification in general, especially in emerging democracies. There, voters' attachments to political parties are usually seen both as essential to and a positive sign of democratic development. This study finds evidence consistent with these arguments in the Mexican case but also identifies aspects of Mexican party identification that are not so clearly supportive of democratic politics; that indeed may delay or even undermine democratization. These findings illustrate the relevance of the Mexican experience to the wider literature on parties and elections, particularly the well-documented relationship between party identifications and democratization.     

U.S. hegemony and Southeast Asia

The United States has exerted a major influence on Southeast Asia, especially since World War II. As both a promoter of neoliberal reform and as the key strategic actor in the wider East Asian region, the impact of U.S. power has been immense. But both the Asian economic crisis and its aftermath, and the more recent “war on terror,” have highlighted the contradictory impact of evolving U.S. foreign policy and intervention in the region. At both an elite and a mass level there is evidence of resentment about, and hostility toward, U.S. policy and its perceived negative effects. This article outlines how U.S. foreign policy has impacted the region in the economic, political, and security spheres, and argues that not only has it frequently not achieved its goals, but it may in fact be undermining both America's long-term hegemonic position in the region and any prospects for political liberalization.     

Asymmetrical Regionalism: China,Southeast Asia and Uneven Development

Does the rise of China present a threat or an opportunity for Southeast Asia? One of the most revealing arenas in which this will be determined will be within the context of regional institution-building. For a region that is perennially associated with under-institutionalisation it is remarkable just how many initiatives have been proposed recently. Such institutions, may be important venues within which ‘asymmetric regionalism’ may be manifest and perhaps managed. The paper provides an assessment of this process through an analysis of China’s relationship with Southeast Asia. The paper initially provides a brief theoretical introduction which explains the relationship between regional development and its possible impact on inter-state relations. Following this I provide an analysis of the political economic and strategic dynamics that are shaping and being shaped by regional initiatives. Finally, I assess how successful ASEAN’s efforts have been to engage China via regional mechanisms has actually been.     

东南亚地区形势:2011年

近年来,东南亚经济复苏步伐快于全球,政治稳定,经济与政治方面的调整改革取得了许多进展。泰国与柬埔寨的边界又起争端,东盟的团结与能力面临新的考验,但不会影响整个地区的和平与稳定。奥巴马政府调整美国的东南亚政策,加强美国在东南亚的存在与影响力,围绕中美两个大国与东盟关系的演变,该地区国际关系格局出现调整。     

Introduction: The Territory of Identity and Remembrance in Okinawa

In the wake of the 1997 regional economic crisis, but before 11 September 2001, many Southeast Asian governments were besieged by formidable challenges to their legitimacy These challenges have been arguably mitigated by the political capital provided by the September 11 event as many regional governments have joined forces with the United States in its “war against terror.” These governments have uncovered the existence of regional terrorist organizations, such as Jemaah Islamiah, with alleged links to the al-Qaida network. With the ostensible routing of the al-Qaida network in Afghanistan, Southeast Asia has been postulated as the new front line and base for Islamic militants. While international forces have undoubtedly contributed to the rise of political and militant Islam in Southeast Asia, this article will highlight the importance of localized sociopolitical and economic sources of Muslim grievance and the vexed issue of authoritarian governance. It is imperative that these issues be seriously addressed if the ideological appeal of radical and militant Islamists is to be effectively mitigated.     

民主化进程中东南亚国家的华人政治参与——以菲律宾、马来西亚和印度尼西亚为例

近年来东南亚华人政治参与发展很快,但各国在参与形式、所选渠道、参与层次及绩效等方面仍存在较大差异.本文通过对菲律宾、马来西亚和印度尼西亚三国华人政治参与的比较分析,发现民主化进程的确推动了华人政治参与的扩大,但具体影响方式、影响范围和影响力大小又是不确定的.合作、竞争和依附,至少构成三种不同的路径选择.较之民主化因素,民族身份认同对东南亚国家华人政治参与模式选择的影响更大.     

菲律宾与印度尼西亚民主转型原因之异同——对《第三波》转型原因观点的验证

第三波民主化浪潮已进入民主巩固阶段,对过去转型的分析有助于对现阶段民主巩固问题的理解.地处东南亚地区的菲律宾与印度尼西亚提供了可资比较的民主转型经验,以亨廷顿<第三波--20世纪后期民主化浪潮>中关于民主转型原因--威权政体政绩与合法性下降、经济发展水平提高、宗教变化、外部因素直接影响和示范效应等五个因素分析为基础,菲律宾与印度尼西亚的比较可以得出结论:威权政体政绩与合法性下降这一因素可能是第三波民主化转型的普遍原因,而经济发展水平提高、宗教变化、外部因素直接影响和示范效应等四个因素可能只是适用范围较小的民主转型原因.