Competitive Cooperation for Regional Development: Japan's New Strategy towards Rising China

This article questions why Japan has taken a neutral position in the Sino‐American trade tensions in 2018, despite its political rivalry with Beijing. It claims that the Japanese strategy towards China between 2012 and 2018 has moved from confrontational competition to competitive cooperation over third‐country markets; this is because of their shared beliefs and methodology regarding regional development. The paper undertakes three major tasks. Firstly, it compares Chinese and Japanese academic discussions regarding East Asia. It finds that experts on both sides admit the significant implications of the politico‐economic divide in the regional system. However, the realistic Chinese tend to consider the divide as a problem to be solved through power, whereas the more liberal Japanese expect it to provide a coordinating function for the regional order as a whole. Secondly, the article reviews the shifts in the Japanese government's behaviours toward China in recent years. It argues that Japan has moved for collaboration with China to maintain the liberal rule‐based order in the region. Finally, founded on the estimate of China's economic leverage over its neighbours, the paper claims that Japan will expand its responsibility in order formation in East Asia in future, becoming more independent from American influences.     

美国对华战略及其内在矛盾

美国对华战略可分为对华安全战略、经济战略、人权战略和对台湾问题的政策.冷战结束以来,美国对华战略经历了一个演变过程.该战略存在严重的内在矛盾,包括战略目标与心态之间的矛盾、战略框架与政策选择之间的矛盾、美国对台政策的内在矛盾、自由贸易与贸易保护主义之间的矛盾等.这些内在矛盾实际上也成为制约这一战略的因素.     

布什上台以来美国的对华政策

布什政府的对华政策尚未完全成型,但它已使中美关系再次陷入危机.此次中美关系所发生的危机具有不同于以往几次危机的特征.今后相当一段时间对华采取强硬路线将是美国对华政策的主流.美国对华政策在形成的过程中将受到各种内外因素的制约.     

Rising giants: Development in China and India

Can economic growth turn overpopulation from a liability to an asset? China and India tantalize investors as the “last frontiers” of emerging consumer markets; together, they hold 37 percent of the world's 5.7 billion people. Despite their many contrasts, China and India face similiar, immense development hurdles. Mired in economic stagnation and poverty, both countries undertook economic reforms that gained momentum in the 1980s. In this comparative study, IIPS Senior Research Fellow Eimon Ueda analyzes their ongoing economic liberalization efforts and prospects. Ueda comes to IIPS from the Ministry of Finance and has served at the Japanese Embassy in India.     

民族主义、国内政治权力结构变迁与南海争端国对华对冲差异

在国际体系变迁的背景下,东南亚三个主要的南海争端国越南、菲律宾和马来西亚普遍采用对华对冲战略以应对中国崛起带来的不确定性。但是,三国的对华对冲差异何以存在仍是个尚需进一步澄清的理论问题。在政治结构具有较高自主性的情况下,民族主义诉求强度以及国内政治权力结构变迁是影响三国对华对冲差异的主要因素,导致三国分别实施了对抗、均衡与合作三种不同类型的对冲。二者通过执政者的合法化战略影响对冲的实际演化,弱民族主义诉求推动争端国采取合作型对华对冲,但随着民族主义诉求增强且政治权力结构趋于集中化,争端国将采取均衡型对冲;在民族主义诉求增强且政治权力结构趋于分散化的情况下,争端国将采取对抗型对冲。国内政治权力结构的未来演变可能导致南海争端国实施更具对抗性的对华对冲战略,推动南海局势发生于中国不利的变化。     

A Rising China and the Normative Changes in International Society

Normative changes in the Western-dominated international society have been taking place, symbolized by the evolution from the “standard of civilization” to the “new standard of civilization”. And the West has always been the developer of the new norms in international society, and changes in international norms reflect the link between power on one hand and norms, rules and institutions on the other. That is a fact or an invented reality which a rapidly rising China has to deal with, and its implications on China’s future relationship with the international society are sure to be great and far-reaching.     

日本经济走向复苏

日本经济萧条持续了十年,2002年初景气终于探底,进入2003年以后,继续保持回升势头.此次景气回升既有经济周期性的原因,也有美国、东亚经济好转给日本带来的恩泽,同时与"小泉改革"也不无关系.这次景气回升是企业设备投资扩大带动的,标志着日本经济向自律性复苏的方向迈进了一大步,但并不意味着日本经济已经复苏.     

新加坡华人的中国情

6月23日,笔者参加了新加坡<联合早报>与新加坡国立大学东亚研究所联合主办的题为布什新外交政策及其对东亚的影响的华语公开座谈会.虽说是座谈会,规模却不小.新加坡报业中心偌大的礼堂,摆放了四百张椅子,开会时已座无虚席.在新加坡,这一类座谈会是免费人场的,市民只要事先拨电话报名即可,主办者根据报名人数安排座席.接待我们的何女士说,礼堂最多容纳五百人,以前只有像医药保健一类的演讲会,听众才会满座,像今天这样的国际形势座谈会,有这么多人报名来听是不多见的.     

印度尼西亚的中等强国战略及其对中国的影响

作为正在崛起的新兴中等强国,印度尼西亚对外战略的重心是通过推行中等强国外交,积极参与国际和地区合作机制,广泛拓展多边外交舞台,提升印尼的国际地位和国际影响力,将印尼真正打造成为一个地区领袖国家,也就是扮演东盟的核心角色,成为东盟的"共主"和东盟地区的"代言人"。从更长远的目标出发,印尼是要跻身世界十大强国行列,实现与大国平起平坐的夙愿,赢得国际社会的真心尊重。印尼中等强国战略对中国完善周边外交布局、改善周边环境具有重要作用。如何处理好与印尼的双边关系,考验着中国外交的智慧,也将对中国周边外交工作产生重要启示。     

Sino‐Japanese relations: A Japanese perspective

Although Sino‐Japanese relations seem much improved in recent years, Tomoyuki Kojima, professor of political science at Keio University, still sees numerous problems that Japan must come to terms with before the two countries can develop a truly close relationship. Points of friction include Japan's past aggression in China, Chinese nuclear testing, regional security issues, and China's criticism of Japan. This paper was presented at the conference, “China and Japan in the Asia‐Pacific region since the Pacific War and Prospects for the Future,” held in Beijing on Nov. 12–13, 1995, by the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations and the Australian National University.     

对21世纪初叶美国对华战略和中美关系重大问题的思考

布什政府执政后,中美关系面临冷战结束后的第二次抉择.美国政府从维护"一超"的国家利益出发,已将2015年前后的中国视为全球性竞争对手,在亚太地区开始构筑一个对华的战略包围圈.美国全球战略和对华政策的本质,使中美两国在新世纪发生军事摩擦的可能性在增大.然而,中美两国的矛盾并非不可调缓,问题的关键在于美国政界要以务实和积极的眼光看待中国的崛起及对美国利益的影响.     

中国崛起时代的东南亚华侨华人社会:变迁与挑战

本文试图回答以下几个问题:中国的崛起对东南亚区域以及当地的华侨华人社会造成哪些影响?在中国崛起的大背景之下,东南亚华侨华人社会出现了哪些变化?我们应该如何解读这些变化的学术与政策意涵?具体来说,这些问题涉及三个不同但又密切相关的主体:东南亚华侨华人社会自身,东南亚华侨华人所在国的政治、社会、经济和文化环境,中国的角度和立场。本文认为,中国的崛起及其与东南亚密切的政治、经济、文化、社会关系,成为东南亚华侨华人社会变迁重要的外在因素,并通过国内政策而内化。当今及未来的东南亚华侨华人社会既面临众多的机遇,但也不可避免地面对新的挑战。     

New Perspectives on Malaysia and a Rising China: Essays Honouring Lee Poh Ping

ABSTRACT

This article introduces the feature collection titled Malaysia and China in a Changing Region: Essays in Honour of Professor Lee Poh Ping. As well as introducing the six articles in the collection, this article pays tribute to Professor Lee, who passed away in late 2016. The article links some of the key themes of Professor Lee’s research and publications to the themes of the six articles, each of which is concerned with the rise of China and the various impacts this has for Malaysia’s political economy.     

布什的新亚太战略及其对中国的影响

布什上台后,美国的对外政策出现了一系列重要变化,其趋向是更加重视亚太地区.美国正在把军事部署的重心从欧洲转向亚洲,并把防备与遏制中国作为其新亚太战略的目标.这将对中国的国家安全产生严重影响.     

海权、陆权与大战略——地理政治学的大战略内涵

作为思考和判断地理因素的社会作用的一种理论形式,地理政治学与大战略研究之间一直存在密切联系,本文的目的是对地理政治学的大战略内涵进行系统地总结和梳理。文章指出,作为一种大战略思想形态,地理政治学主要有两大思想流派,即拉采尔首创的有机国家论以及马汉、麦金德和斯皮克曼代表的地理战略论。本文认为,作为盎格鲁-撒克逊民族对外政策关切的体现,地理战略论的关注焦点主要有两个问题:一是工业革命引发的技术进步对海权与陆权间力量对比的潜在涵义;二是主导性海洋国家为应对这种局面应采取的手段。尽管海权与陆权间力量对比历来是地理战略论的关注重点,但位于两者之间的边缘地带在这派理论中同样也占有重要地位,本文最后专门考察了边缘地带的大战略意义。     

Gorbachev's Economic Strategy: A Comment

Specialists from three countries report the results of survey research conducted during March-April 2000 in Dagestan. Questions addressed include identification with Russia and with Dagestan, confidence in local, regional, and federal institutions, perceptions of changes in the economy, politics, and cultural life, and perceived threats from external sources. Analysis also specifies attitudinal differences among ethnic groups and among other demographic categories within Dagestan.