中国-印度-尼泊尔三边主义超越地缘政治的倡议

中印关系被广泛认作是一种地缘政治上的力量均势关系或是亚洲两个正在崛起的大国之间的对抗关系。在这一背景下,作者从尼泊尔的角度阐述中国、印度和尼泊尔之间的三边合作设想,探讨中印之间竞争与合作的主要变化趋势,认为这些变化趋势在某些领域可能会向它们的邻居尼泊尔提供持续获益的机会。当代尼泊尔外交政策思路中最有趣的一点就是尼泊尔努力在三边框架范围内扮演促成中印协作关系的催化剂角色,从而使尼泊尔自身的地理位置成为一种优势,并使尼泊尔自身获得体面的中等区域国家的地位。从理论上讲,这一想法可以使尼泊尔从冲突一线的前哨转变为国际枢纽的角色。     

The Great Powers and Regional Conflicts: Eastern Europe and the Balkans from the Post–Napoleonic Era to the Post–Cold War Era

The objective of this article is to provide an analytical framework for addressing the sources of great power regional involvement and its effects on regional conflicts. The thesis of the article is that variations in the degree of intensity of conflicts and the likelihood of successful conflict resolution in different regions are affected by the character of great power involvement in these regions. Our argument is that although great power involvement or noninvolvement cannot cause or terminate regional conflicts, it can either intensify existing local conflicts or mitigate them. We will propose causal linkages between balances of great power capabilities and interests, types of great power involvement in regional conflicts, and patterns of regional conflicts. The study will distinguish among four types of great power involvement in regional conflicts: competition, cooperation, dominance, and disengagement. The empirical section will examine the application of these propositions in seven historical illustrations, representing the four patterns of great power involvement in regional conflicts. All the illustrations will deal with one conflict-ridden region-Eastern Europe and the Balkans, in successive historical periods from the post-Napoleonic era to the post-Cold War era. Because of the variety of patterns of great power involvement in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, this region is uniquely suited to examine the propositions derived from the theoretical framework. Drawing on both the theoretical deductions and the historical illustrations should make it possible in the last section to discuss briefly the implications of the proposed framework for regional conflict management or mitigation in the Balkans in the post-Cold War era.     

Repression,Grievances, Mobilization,and Rebellion: A New Test of Gurr’s Model of Ethnopolitical Rebellion

The concept of polarity has been subject to imprecise and often diverse use. This note explores problems associated with the varied use of the term and proposes an alternative approach to classifying international systems which treats horizontal and vertical dimensions of power as distinct structural variables. In this approach, the present system is distinguished from the classical balance of power system containing pluralized patterns of conflict on the one hand and from the Cold War system with a marked concentration of power on the other. In the contemporary system polarized patterns of conflict coexist with processes of power diffusion. To the extent polarizations persist in a more diffuse power setting, the decentralized power balancing system through which stability was sought in multipower systems cannot function‐nor are the polarized conflicts likely to be controlled as a result of the two‐power effort at balancing power which occurred during the post‐war period. The factors affecting the stability of the present system, it is suggested here, can be better understood by examining analogous structures in which processes of power diffusion occur in the context of polarized conflict and not as a result of spurious comparisons which mistake the diffusion of power for the pluralization of conflict.     

The lost revolution of West Germany's terrorists

ABSTRACT

The ubiquity of military service and armed conflict in the contemporary Israeli experience has stimulated intense Jewish theological discourse in matters relevant to armed conflict. Warfare and its conduct, subjects that for almost two millennia constituted one of the great lacunae of rabbinic instruction, are now addressed in a swelling tide of detailed and erudite publications.

The present essay outlines the contours of that discourse. Focusing on contemporary analyses of issues that in the western tradition fall under the rubric of ius ad bellum, it examines the means whereby attempts are made to apply traditional Jewish taxonomies of conflict to modern Israeli circumstances.

In addition, the essay addresses four specific issues: (1) The identities and affiliations of the discourses principal participants; (2) The formats and styles of their discussions; (3) The principal issues with which they are concerned; and (4) The potential implications, operational as well as intellectual, of the developments described.     

全球化中的奥运会和中国外交的新任务

在全球化和信息化的背景下,国际关系的内涵和外延正在发生重大变化.以北京奥运会为聚焦点的国际互动显示了当代国际关系的新特点:新兴大国的中国同西方传统大国在价值观方面进行了新一轮的碰撞、竞争和磨合.形势的发展对中国外交提出了诸如新兴大国和国际体系间的关系、国家行为体和非国家行为体的有序互动、国际政治和全球治理、中国国际战略和内外统筹的有机协调等新任务.     

印度软实力初探——论印度发展软实力的优势与劣势

在当代国际关系中，随着时代主题的转变、全球化大潮的全面来临，国家之间相互依赖程度的加深，用传统军事经济手段解决问题的成本日益加大，国家软实力的重要性正日趋上升。印度是一个正在崛起的新兴大国，了解印度的软实力及其发展、变化和运用，对我国有极其重要的意义。本文旨在探讨印度的软实力，分析印度发展软实力的优势与劣势。     

India’s role during the 1956 Suez Crisis: Between peacemaking and postcolonial solidarity

ABSTRACT

The 1956 Suez conflict was not inevitable. The involvement of an impartial third party had offered an exit ramp for the main protagonists. Largely forgotten today, India strove to reconcile the interests of the Westerns powers with Arab nationalism. Displaying creativity and perseverance in attempting to arrest the sudden deterioration in security in its extended neighborhood, India’s unceasing but responsible support for a weaker Arab state in the backdrop of determined Western coercion is a useful illustration for contemporary policymakers who are attempting to craft a sustainable approach towards a tumultuous West Asia. Using previously unused archival documents, this paper adds to the small literature on India’s involvement in this crisis by offering the first detailed account of India’s attempt to prevent the outbreak of hostilities in those fateful months of 1956. By doing so, this article also reveals interesting facets of India’s approach to conflict management and regional stability in the 1950s, a role that was predicated on not just promoting strategic restraint between antagonistic states but also enabling conflict resolution options that preserved the vital interests of competing actors.     

Rationalist state,revolutionist EU and realist war: Austria in international society

This article examines Austria's position as a small, neutral state in the international society as framed by the English School. This examination is chiefly done in the face of the effects of great power conflicts and their impact on Western Europe's society of states. In doing so, the article provides insights to the fundamental puzzles concerning the ways power is managed between states, great and small alike. The article surveys how war (such as in South Ossetia in 2008) and war-like incidents affected Austria's position in the international society and the understanding of its place in great power conflicts between East and West. I argue that neutrality, despite European integration in the context of a peaceful international society, remains a political option for small states such as Austria. This option is especially lively if there is a domestic sentimental attachment to it and sticking to it does not undermine domestic or European and international foreign policy rationale and interests.     

When Settlement and Resolution Are in Conflict: Searching for a Mideast Peace Dividend

Using a contemporary case involving Palestinians and Israelis working on business ventures following the 1993 Oslo Peace Accords, the author focuses on the differences between conflict resolution and conflict settlement. In situations of deep-rooted conflict, settlement and resolution are often the same thing; attitude change among individuals is required to attain either goal. The Petty and Cacioppo Model (1986) specifies that attitude change results from central routes or peripheral routes. The author reflects on the model's predictive elements in the business venture case and its useful implications for other conflicts.     

Theoretical foundations for the collection of major power‐minor power war data

Two basic theoretical considerations underlie the collection of data on major power‐minor power conflicts. Both perspectives have major power‐minor power relations at their core, and are developed more fully in The Onset of World War (Midlarsky, 1988). First, an hierarchical equilibrium structure consists of two components: (1) two or more alliances (or other loose hierarchies such as loosely‐knit empires) of varying size and composition but clearly including a great power and a number of small powers within each, and (2) a relatively large number of small powers not formally associated with any of the great powers. Time periods during which the hierarchical equilibrium was obeyed did not experience systemic war, while those in which it was violated experienced this type of warfare. The second major theoretical basis is the overlap between great power conflicts exclusively, on the one hand, and great power‐small power conflicts on the other. This combination was a major contributor to the onset of World War I as well as other systemic wars such at the Thirty Years’ War and the Peloponnesian War.     

The changing phases of the Niger Delta conflict: implications for conflict escalation and the return of peace

This paper discusses the nature and dynamics of the Niger Delta conflict and traces the structural origin of the conflict to a dysfunctional Nigerian ‘state-nation’ that is a product of colonisation. The paper argues that the conflict is best understood as a process viewed in terms of nests or phases. Building on previous findings on the aetiology of African conflicts and contemporary scholarship on African politics, the paper identifies how different phases of the Niger Delta conflict interact to impel the conflict toward escalation. Consequently, it is argued that both the ‘marginalisation-relative deprivation’ and the ‘political economy of war’ theses have been instrumental in furthering our understanding of the conflict along different lines. However, the tendency for both perspectives to claim superiority over the other has meant that each only offers a partial truth and is therefore unable to explain the increasing intensity and longevity of the Niger Delta conflict. Indeed, it is shown how these theses feed into the discursive struggle between militants, militant entrepreneurs and the Nigerian Government in ways that allow for the commodification of the Niger Delta people. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of the emerging issues for the return of peace in the Niger Delta.     

Social Psychology's Contributions to the Study of Conflict Resolution

This essay presents an indication of the major research questions addressed in the literature of social psychology related to conflict resolution, as well as a historical perspective to see what progress has been made in this area. Highlighted at the conclusion of a section on contemporary themes in conflict studies is the author's consideration of what we know (and need to know) about conflict resolution and overcoming oppression. The author also offers an assessment of the progress thus far in the methodological, conceptual, empirical, and technological domains in the social psychological study of conflict.     

Less conflict,more peace? Understanding trends in conflict persistence

Persistent civil wars constitute a serious challenge to human security and have received growing attention in recent years. Yet our understanding of patterns of conflict persistence suffers from both the absence of clear definitions and measurements as well as a lack of attention to changes over time. As a result, the prevailing image of conflict persistence as an increasing threat does not adequately reflect reality. This in turn limits our ability to identify factors that favour or prevent persistence. The paper will highlight largely overlooked developments in intrastate conflict persistence over the last decades, showing that new conflicts appear to be shorter than before, while long duration and high recurrence rates are predominantly found in relatively small and peripheral conflicts. I argue that the major drivers of these patterns include changes in the nature and context of civil wars since the end of the Cold War, as well as changes in state capacity. The relationship between state capacity and conflict persistence, however, is ambivalent, and in some cases state strength appears to be a permissive factor of conflict persistence.     

Refugee Flows,Ethnic Power Relations,and the Spread of Conflict

Why do some refugee flows cause conflict in the host state and others do not? Drawing on bargaining models of war, I argue refugees are especially likely to cause conflict when they alter the host state's ethnic balance of power. More specifically, I explain why multiple informational and commitment problems arise when refugee flows produce a rapid shift in relative power between ethnic groups. As an empirical strategy, I examine a unique controlled comparison made possible by the influx of Kosovar refugees into Albania and Macedonia in 1999 that eliminates over a dozen competing explanations for civil conflict. I then use process tracing to demonstrate how a change in relative power between ethnic groups fostered violence in Macedonia, whereas the preservation of the ethnic balance facilitated a peaceful refugee flow into Albania. This evidence, though tentative, indicates that a refugee flow's effect on the host state's ethnic balance of power can help explain whether the state experiences peace or conflict.     

Assessing the impact of EU governmentality in post-conflict countries: pacification or reconciliation?

European Union (EU) interventions in conflict countries tend to focus on governance reforms of political and economic frameworks instead of the geopolitical context or the underlying power asymmetries that fuel conflict. They follow a liberal pattern often associated with northern donors and the UN system more generally. The EU's approach diverges from prevalent governance paradigms mainly in its engagement with social, identity and socio-economic exclusion. This article examines the EU's ‘peace-as-governance’ model in Cyprus, Georgia, Palestine and Bosnia and Herzegovina. These cases indicate that a tense and contradictory strategic situation may arise from an insufficient redress of underlying conflict issues.     

Bilateral Import, Export, and Conflict/Cooperation Simultaneity

A mathematical model of dyadic trade and the level of political conflict/cooperation is developed and empirically tested. The model extends the literature in three ways. First, the bilateral trade quantities and the level of conflict/cooperation are simultaneously determined. Second, the commonly used unitary state actor is replaced by a government, an exporter, and an importer in each country in a dyad. Third, action-reaction conflict/cooperation dynamics are incorporated into the model. The model predicts that the effect of bilateral trade quantity on conflict/cooperation and the effect of conflict/cooperation on the monetary value of trade may be positive or negative, whereas the effect of conflict on trade quantity will be negative. These predictions depend on certain conditions, heretofore unrecognized in the literature. The empirical test employs statistical methods, and the results generally support the model's predictions. Overall, this paper suggests that contemporary trade and conflict theories may miss important elements, pointing out the need for richer, more microfounded models.     

Power Transitions,Status Dissatisfaction,and War: The Sino-Japanese War of 1894–1895

Although power transition theory offers a powerful model of international conflict, scholars have not adequately operationalized the theory's key variable of satisfaction/dissatisfaction with the status quo. We argue that status dissatisfaction is an important component of a rising state's overall dissatisfaction with the system. We apply our revised power transition framework to the 1894–1895 Sino-Japanese War. Japan's revisionist foreign policy was driven by economic and security threats posed by China's control over Korea, dissatisfaction with Japan's place in the China-dominated East Asian hierarchy, the hope for recognition as a great power by the West, status-related domestic pressures, and by belief change that was endogenous to shifting power. Despite several earlier crises, Japan made the decision for war only after it had achieved parity with China, which is consistent with power transition theory's hypothesis that under conditions of shifting power, parity is a necessary condition for war.     

Explaining divergent responses to ethnic exclusion: evidence from two paired comparisons

This article asks why ethnic exclusion from executive-level state power leads to armed conflict in some cases but not in others. To answer this question the author develops a nine-factor model of ethnic conflict, which is used to investigate the diverging conflict trajectories of two pairs of ‘most similar’ ethnic groups. These include the Malinke in Guinea and Northerners in Côte d'Ivoire on the one hand, and Kurds in Syria and Turkey on the other. It is shown that varying responses to ethnic exclusion can mainly be traced back to three factors, which have so far been neglected in the ethnic conflict literature: the selectivity of state violence, the territorial reach of the state and the availability of cross-border sanctuaries. Ethnic rebellion occurs where weak territorial control and indiscriminate repression combine with external sanctuary. Conversely, violent escalation is avoided in a context of strong territorial control, selective repression and no external sanctuary.     

The Chemistry of a Conflict: The Chinese Government and the Falun Gong

This article examines elements shaping the conflict between the Chinese government and the Falun Gong movement. It explores the historical relationship between China's rulers and sects, the qigong boom in contemporary China, the Chinese government's style of conflict management, and the development of the Falun Gong teachings since the group was banned. It discusses the extreme language both sides use to define themselves and their opponent as part of a media-campaign to legitimate their respective causes. It also examines the intensification of the millennial message in the Falun Gong teachings and the potential justification for violence even though the teachings continue to condemn the use of violence. Its concludes with reflections on the future of the Falun Gong and the Chinese government.     

Stuck in the Middle: Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry,the U.S.-China Tech Fight,and Cross-Strait Stability

The Trump administration has worked to restrict the People's Republic of China's ability to manufacture and acquire semiconductor chips since 2018. Caught in the crossfire of this burgeoning tech war is Taiwan, which is home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world's largest semiconductor chip manufacturer. With the United States banning companies that use U.S. technology in their chip manufacturing process from doing business with Huawei, TSMC can no longer do business with the Chinese tech company, one of its most important clients. Until the Trump administration announced the license restriction on Huawei, TSMC had managed to walk the fine line of doing business with both China and the United States, without riling either. This article argues that the TSMC example is indicative of how great power competition between the two countries will play out for the foreseeable future. TSMC has announced that it will build a new factory in Arizona as it faces Chinese firms poaching its employees and Chinese actors hacking its systems and code for trade secrets—all actions demonstrating how great power competition will play out for tech dominance. Avoiding direct live-fire conflict, China and the United States will work to restrict the other's actions and development by forcing important tech companies, such as TSMC, into picking a side.