Buckle up or slow down? New estimates of offsetting behavior and their implications for automobile safety regulation

This study provides a detailed examination of the determinants of motor vehicle fatalities and offers a new assessment of the effects of automobile safety regulation. An empirical analysis is difficult because drivers are unlikely to remain passive in the face of changes in their safety environment. This offsetting behavior hypothesis is cast in a broad framework that brings together elements from the economics and cognition literatures. This approach allows us to highlight key maintained assumptions in previous analyses and to consider how econometric evidence can inform discussions about highway safety policy. The econometric estimates reveal that, while imprecisely estimated, offsetting behavior is quantitatively important and attenuates the effects of safety regulation on total motor vehicle fatalities. Cognitive elements, the relative costs of repairs, and the functional form of the estimating equation are shown to play prominent roles in the analysis of safety regulation. Our estimates imply that current highway policy initiatives—mandating restraint systems and relaxing restrictions on the maximum speed limit—are likely to have only a modest net effect on reducing motor vehicle fatalities.     

PROGRAM COORDINATION IN THE EMPLOYMENT SERVICE: A STATE AND LOCAL POLICY PERSPECTIVE

This paper analyzes the role of coordination criteria in employment and training service delivery within the Job Training Partnership Act system. The evolution of coordination criteria is related to current initiatives in the Employment Service at the state and local levels. An operational set of program outcome measures for monitoring coordination efforts is discussed. This set of outcome measures is formulated in the broad context of stabilizing employment and averting the "structuralization" of unemployment impacts wrought by fundamental economic change in the labor market. The assessment and monitoring of such coordination efforts is discussed.     

Democracy and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis

Despite a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature, no firm conclusions have been drawn regarding the impact of political democracy on economic growth. This article challenges the consensus of an inconclusive relationship through a quantitative assessment of the democracy-growth literature. It applies meta-regression analysis to the population of 483 estimates derived from 84 studies on democracy and growth. Using traditional meta-analysis estimators, the bootstrap, and Fixed and Random Effects meta-regression models, it derives several robust conclusions. Taking all the available published evidence together, it concludes that democracy does not have a direct impact on economic growth. However, democracy has robust, significant, and positive indirect effects through higher human capital, lower inflation, lower political instability, and higher levels of economic freedom. Democracies may also be associated with larger governments and less free international trade. There also appear to be country- and region-specific democracy-growth effects. Overall, democracy's net effect on the economy does not seem to be detrimental.     

Prescribing engagement in environmental risk assessment for gene drive technology

Gene drive technology is a nascent biotechnology with the potential to purposefully alter or eliminate a species. There have been broad calls for engagement to inform gene drive governance. Over the past seven years, the gene drive community has been developing risk assessment guidelines to determine what form future gene drive risk assessments take, including whether and how they involve engagement. To explore who is developing these guidelines and how engagement in risk assessment is being prescribed, we conduct a document analysis of gene drive risk assessment guideline documents from 2014 to 2020. We found that a narrow set of organizations have developed 10 key guideline documents and that with only one exception the documents prescribe a narrow, vague, or completely absent role for engagement in gene drive risk assessment. Without substantively prescribed engagement in guidelines, the relevance, rigor, and trustworthiness of gene drive risk assessment and governance will suffer.     

Die Dividende der Demokratie: Politische Herrschaft und gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktivität

In social sciences exists a broad consensus about the impact of political institutions on economic development. There is dissent, however, about the influence of democratic order on economic performance. Based on arguments from economic institutionalism, this paper argues that democracy has a significant and positive impact on productivity growth. In contrast to autocratic order, democratic systems can be interpreted as a competition-friendly regulation of a natural monopoly, which results in comparatively high productivity gains. This hypothesis is tested for a sample of 81 countries for the 1975–2000 period. Different regression models provide empirical support for the assumption that increasing levels of democracy produce a productivity dividend.     

The Georgia Lottery: Assessing Its Administrative, Economic, and Political Effects

This article examines the Georgia lottery as a “policy laboratory” and its potential effect on state‐level policy diffusion. The authors summarize an extensive research project they directed that included a survey of every state that offers a lottery, a general population survey of Georgia citizen attitudes toward the lottery, and results from an economic model summarizing the economic effects of the lottery. The analysis reveals that the Georgia lottery has been a significant source of revenue for the state's budget and operates in an administratively cost‐effective manner. The analysis also confirms the conventional wisdom that lower‐income households spend a greater proportionate share of their income on the lottery and that African Americans are more frequent players than whites. Furthermore, the Georgia lottery enjoys broad public support, the key to which appears to be the earmarking of lottery funds to specific, new, popular education programs. However, the data reveal that those educational programs promulgated by the Georgia lottery benefit citizens from both high and low socioeconomic status. Finally, the article suggests that lottery‐generated funds may reach a plateau or peak during the first decade of implementation and that state policymakers should design lottery‐funded programs accordingly.     

Turnover among City Managers: The Role of Political and Economic Change

Executive turnover can have profound effects on city policies, programs, and commitments such as contracting or issuing debt. This article identifies how political changes, reflected in the composition of the city council, and economic changes in the community influence city manager turnover. Analysis of manager turnover patterns in 143 large U.S. cities with council-manager governments from 1987 to 1999 allows us to distinguish "push" and "pull" factors that can induce city managers to leave their jobs. The empirical analysis demonstrates that political conflict and economic development can influence the likelihood that a city manager will exit a community, but these effects can be complex. In particular, the influence of community economic development on turnover includes a temporal dimension not revealed in previous research. We conclude by discussing the findings' implications for career patterns in city management.     

An evaluation of the quality of impact assessment in the European Union with lessons for the US and the EU

Governments throughout the world are requiring greater use of economic analysis as a way of informing policy decisions. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the use of impact assessment in the European Union, using US assessments as a benchmark. We find that recent EU impact assessments include more economic information than they did in the past, although important items are still missing. We also provide evidence that the quality of EU impact assessment increases with the expected cost of a proposal. Furthermore, we find that the quality of EU assessments that report high total costs is similar to that of US assessments.     

Interest group representation and framing in the media: A policy area perspective

This article analyzes interest group representation and framing in the news media. In contrast to previous work, it focuses on the role of the policy area in shaping the types of groups appearing in the media and the frames used by groups. Empirically, the analysis maps group representation and framing across six different policy areas in the Danish news media. It distinguishes between whether groups frame their viewpoints as furthering (a) the interests of group members, (b) the interests of other specific societal groups, (c) broad economic concerns, or (d) public interests in general. Interest group representation and framing is found to vary between these policy areas. Some areas mainly contrast economic groups and the interests of their members, whereas debates in other areas are more likely to be shaped by references to beneficiaries of welfare state services or broad, public interests.     

The Chinese Ideology: Reconciling the Politics with the Economics of Contemporary Reform

Political scientists and economists fundamentally disagree in their assessment of ideology in contemporary Chinese reform. Whereas the former emphasize its functional value legitimizing the overall course of reform, the latter warn of indoctrination and negative welfare effects. We argue that ideology is pervasive in China’s political economy of reform—past, present, and future. Moreover, a common assessment is both necessary and feasible. The presented case studies (loyalty signaling, message control, policy learning, and anti-corruption) underline the highly ambiguous role of ideology oscillating between alignment and adaptation. In the end, ideology can unite or divide Chinese society as well as increase or diminish economic efficiency.     

Economic Globalization and Policy Choices: Singapore

This article analyzes the effects of economic globalization on public policy in Singapore, which has the worlds most globalized economy. It finds that contrary to the assumption of muck of the literature on the subject, it is the state, rather than systemic imperatives, that has played the most decisive role in shaping the form and scope of the economy's globalization. Its examination of the effects of globalization on policy choices in three broad areas—economic development, national security, and social development—in Singapore shows that globalization has not only constrained policy choices, but expanded them as well. The case study suggests that we need to ascribe greater centrality to the agency of the state in the globalization process and develop a more nuanced conception of the opportunities it affords and the constraints it imposes.     

THE TYPOLOGY OF FISCAL DECENTRALISATION SYSTEM: A CLUSTER ANALYSIS APPROACH

The article suggests a novel theoretical framework for empirical measurement of fiscal decentralisation by taking the viewpoint that fiscal decentralisation should be regarded as a system. Then, we review in detail several institutional arrangements regarding fiscally decentralised systems including the following: federal versus unitary state, numbers of tiers of governments, taxing power, borrowing power and independence of local officials. After identifying these institutional arrangements, we can group different countries with similar institutionally fiscal decentralisation systems together in broad categories by using cluster analysis. This analysis reveals a typology of fiscally decentralised systems (FDS): high expenditure/revenue assignment FDS, low expenditure/revenue assignment FDS, revenue transfer FDS, most complete FDS, politically centralised FDS and unitary state FDS. We then employ regression analysis to examine the performance for each type of fiscal decentralisation system. Our empirical findings suggest that most complete FDS is positively associated with selective economic performance as well as various public governance indicators. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Local Government Finance in Hungary: Okun Revisited

Fundamental change in the economic systems of the nations-of central Europe is now taking place. The economic transition has broad social and cultural consequences, among these the alteration of local government service provision and financial management. In this article, the authors describe some of the fiscal characteristics of local governments in Hungary with an analysis of the dilemmas of transition. Efforts to create and enhance local government financial management capability are detailed. This article portrays the difficulty of developing a fully operational market economy within a democratic context in the post-Communist era while, at the same time, maintaining social protection for citizens through the continued provision of a wide array of social benefit programs. The essential dilemma for local government social program managers and budget officials is that service demand far surpasses the financial resources available to continue services at the levels to which people grew accustomed under the Communist regime.     

Party ideology and clientelistic linkage

How does parties' ideology affect their linkage strategies? While scholars maintain that economically right wing parties are more clientelistic, there has been no systematic study testing this argument. We examine the conservative ideology-clientelism nexus with multi-level quantitative analyses of parties' clientelistic appeals. Our analysis reveals a robust, yet nuanced relationship between ideology and clientelism. Specifically, right wing parties are more clientelistic than left wing parties, but only with regard to providing broad economic rents to clients. In contrast, economically conservative parties are not more likely to engage in individual targeted clientelism. Moreover, parties' ties with economic interests mediate the relationship between ideology and clientelism. Finally, the association between parties' linkage to business interests and rents clientelism is attenuated by country-level economic liberalism.     

Policy analysis in the presence of distorting taxes

This article first describes the new literature in environmental economics on the so‐called “double‐dividend” and then explores its implications for a broad range of economic issues. This literature reveals that in a second‐best, general‐equilibrium setting, environmental measures raise costs and prices and thereby reduce the real wage. This rise in the cost of living reduces slightly the quantity of labor supplied in an already highly distorted labor market, giving rise to losses in social welfare that can be large relative to the basic gains from a cleaner environment. These losses can be offset to some extent by using revenues (if any) from the environmental programs to reduce existing taxes on labor. This same line of analysis applies to many programs and institutions in the economy that raise the cost of living: tariffs and quotas on imports, agricultural price‐support programs, monopoly pricing, programs of occupational licensure that limit entry, and many others. Thus, traditional, partial‐equilibrium benefit‐cost analysis appears, in many instances, to have unwittingly omitted from the calculations a potentially quite significant class of social costs. © 2000 by the Association for Public Policy and Management.     

Economic liberalisation,market institutions and labour rights

What effect do pro‐market economic policies have on labour rights? Despite significant debate in policy and academic circles about the consequences of economic liberalisation, little is known about the labour rights effects of pro‐market policies. Extant literature has focused only on the possible outcomes of market‐liberalising policies, such as trade and investment flows, rather than directly assessing market‐friendly policies and institutions. Moreover, this line of research has found mixed results on how these outcomes influence labour conditions. To provide a comprehensive assessment of this linkage, this article combines data on five distinct policy areas associated with economic liberalisation with data on labour rights for the period 1981–2012. The results indicate that pro‐market policies – except the ones involving rule of law and secure property rights – undermine labour rights. Thus while there are some positive economic and political outcomes associated with market‐supporting policies, economic liberalisation comes at the cost of respect for labour rights.     

Rents and economic development: the perspective of Why Nations Fail

Public Choice - We present the approach to comparative economic development of Why Nations Fail. Economic prosperity requires inclusive economic institutions—those which create broad based...     

The Dynamics of Party Preference Change in Britain, 1991–1996

The paper examines individual-level data from the first six waves of the British Household Panel Survey, 1991–96. The analysis shows that changes in party support in this period were significantly affected by two sets of factors that have traditionally been regarded as important sources of changes in voters' political preferences: ideology and personal economic experiences. Ideological change is demonstrated to have much stronger direct effects on party preference than economic factors. However, both objective economic conditions and subjective economic perceptions are shown to have significant effects on ideological change itself, implying that economic factors also exert important indirect effects on voters' partisan preferences. These individual-level findings provide important corroboration for the results of aggregate-level studies, which have consistently found that economic factors—and in particular economic perceptions—play a major role in determining patterns of partisan support.     

Can China’s Economic Statecraft Win Soft Power in Africa? Unpacking Trade,Investment and Aid

Boosting China’s soft power is an important goal of Chinese economic statecraft in Africa. However, African opinions of China – in particular those of ordinary people – are understudied, and existing evidence suggests African viewpoints on China are highly varied and polarized. On the one hand, China’s growing economic linkages are welcomed by Africans as an important alternative to traditional partners, and a vital source of funding for development needs. On the other hand, Africans see China as a source of poor-quality products and an exploitative threat to local markets. How can scholars understand these polarized opinions on China? Using data from the Afrobarometer Round 6 survey (2016), this article aims to untangle African perceptions of Chinese economic engagement through unpacking the distinctive effects of China’s three tools of economic statecraft: trade, foreign direct investment, and aid. Analyses of Chinese influence frequently package these three modes of engagement together, but in practice they have very different consequences for China’s soft power. Negative perceptions of China among African citizens are primarily associated with trade-related issues. China’s investment and aid, on the other hand, generally make a positive contribution to Chinese soft power in Africa. By highlighting the contrasting effects of different instruments of economic engagement, this analysis contributes insight into Sino-African relations and China’s wider economic diplomacy.