How should we understand the effect of age on sexual recidivism?

Abstract

Research into the effect of age on sexual recidivism risk is a relatively new and developing area of interest and is likely to be of great interest for forensic practitioners responsible for the community supervision of sexual offenders. Meta-analytical and follow-up reconviction studies indicate an inverse relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk, where younger sex offenders pose a greater risk of reconviction than older sex offenders. This finding has led to the development of actuarial risk scales which identify younger sex offenders (<25 years) as posing the greatest risk. However, recent research studies have reported contradictory results to this assumption and found a non-linear relationship between age and sexual recidivism risk. Only a small number of studies have investigated the effect of age on sexual recidivism by comparing age bands and rates of sexual recidivism. Researchers have also considered the effect of age on actuarial risk, which risk factors are associated with which age bands and sexual recidivism rates between sex offender subgroups. The purpose of this paper is to integrate this research and to link commonalities between these studies. This paper organizes the effect of age on sexual recidivism into five categories: (i) the effect of age and actuarial risk; (ii) the effect of age on sexual arousal; (iii) the effect of age-at-release on sexual recidivism risk; (iv) the effect of age-at-first-offence on sexual recidivism risk; and (v) the effect of age on child molesters and rapists on sexual recidivism risk. Important differences were found between age bands of sexual offenders in terms of sexual recidivism risk and actuarial risk factors as well as differences between rapists and child molesters. The relative importance of factoring age when assessing risk in sex offenders is discussed.     

The Effects of Changes in Dynamic Risk on Reoffending among Serious Juvenile Offenders Returning from Residential Placement

This study examines whether changes in dynamic risk during juvenile justice long-term residential placement affect recidivism. Advancing the work of prior dynamic risk change analyses, we examine a large sample of 11,891 male and 1930 female juvenile offenders while taking methodological steps to ensure successful and non-successful youth (in terms of recidivism) are (statistically) identical at admission. Specifically, we employ propensity score matching on residential placement youth who recidivate post-release and non-recidivists on static risk factors and initial dynamic risk scores assessed at admission to residential placement. Post-matching, changes in dynamic risk factors from initial assessment at admission to exit assessment at release are examined with a focus on whether those changes distinguish recidivists from non-recidivists. Separate analyses are conducted for male and female juveniles. Results indicate that changes in dynamic risk do affect recidivism likelihood, but that different factors matter for males and females. These sex-specific models allow for distinct policy recommendations.     

Family violence risk assessment: A predictive cross-validation study of the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised (DVSI-R)

This research was a cross-validation study of the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised (DVSI-R), using a diverse, statewide sample of 3,569 family violence perpetrators in Connecticut, assessed in February and March of 2007. It analyzed re-arrest data collected during an 18-month period post assessment. Three issues were central, which have been ignored in previous research on family violence risk assessment: (1) analyzing five refined measures of behavioral recidivism, (2) determining whether perpetrator characteristics and types of family and household relationships (beyond just heterosexual intimate partners) moderate the empirical relations between the DVSI-R and the behavioral recidivism measures, and (3) determining whether structured clinical judgment about the imminent risk of future violence to the victim or to others corresponds with recidivism predicted by the DVSI-R total numeric risk scores. The empirical findings showed that the DVSI-R had significant predictive accuracy across all five measures of recidivism. With one exception, these relations did not vary by gender, age, or ethnicity; and again with one exception, no significant evidence was found that types of family or household relationships moderated those empirical relations. In short, the evidence suggested that the DVSI-R was a robust risk assessment instrument, having applicability across different types of perpetrators and different types of family and household relationships. Finally, the empirical findings showed that structured clinical judgment about imminent risk-to-victim and risk-to-others corresponded with the prediction of recidivism by the DVSI-R total numeric risk scores, but the effects of those scores were significantly stronger than the perceived risk-to-victim or the perceived risk-to-others.     

Familial functioning as a support system for adolescents' postdetention success

Youths transitioning out of detention are particularly in need of support systems that can divert them from recidivism. This article examines the relationship between incarcerated youths' sense of their families' functioning and their perceived likelihood for postdetention success. Despite the control of background variables, results reveal that delinquents who indicated stronger familial functioning also reported a greater likelihood of future success. Although interventions that focus on improving the supportive capacity of families have shown great promise, treatment drop-out rates remain high. To explore incarcerated youths' view of family focused interventions, respondents rated the potential utility of family and nonfamily focused intervention options. A majority of respondents reported that family focused interventions would be helpful. A group of respondents, overrepresented by adolescents with low family functioning, reported that this type of intervention would not be helpful. These results are discussed in terms of their impact on offering family focused interventions for juveniles.     

A Structural Modelling Approach to Predict Adolescent Offending Behaviour from Family,School and Community Factors

It seems undeniable that immediate social contexts exert an important influential role on adolescent behavioural adjustment. Research thus far has found that certain family, school and community/neighbourhood environment characteristics may influence a youth’s involvement in risk activities such as antisocial behaviour and drug use, and even delinquent behaviour. However, the mechanisms that link these characteristics to such behaviours have not yet been thoroughly analysed and prior research has focused mainly on adult populations. The objective of this study was to analyse the joint contribution of specific factors, deriving from family, school and society, which have an effect on levels of drug consumption, antisocial and offending behaviour, in a sample of 2528 youths (aged 10 to 16). In particular, in accounting for involvement in risk activities and ultimately in offending behaviour, we examined interactions among the following variables: living in a disadvantaged community, quality of relationship with parents, distrust in local police, attitude to social norms, and rejection of and from school (truancy, suspension and expulsion). A structural equation model was calculated to account for these interactions, which revealed patterns of influence with important practical implications related to social policies on risk behaviours in adolescence.     

Incremental validity of ambulatory assessment of acute dynamic risk in predicting time to recidivism among prisoners on parole

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the incremental validity of changes in ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors, collected through automated telephony over 30 consecutive days following parole, for predicting time to recidivism during the following year. Before release, the participants completed self-report assessment of some stable risk factors – impulsiveness and history of problematic substance use – as well as an assessment of symptoms of anxiety experienced during the weeks prior to release. Analysis of the baseline assessments showed that impulsiveness and a history of problematic substance use, but not pre-release symptoms of anxiety, were associated with recidivism during the parole year. Growth modelling using a linear mixed model was used to assess whether inmates on parole showed changes in acute dynamic risk factors during the first month following release. Individual growth model slopes and intercept were then extracted and used as covariates in a series of Cox regression analyses to test whether changes in acute dynamic risk factors could provide incremental predictive validity beyond baseline stable risk factors. Changes in five dynamic risk factors were associated with an increased risk of recidivism, of which daily drug use and daily summary score showed incremental predictive improvement beyond impulsiveness and history of problematic drug use.     

Challenges for the theory and application of dynamic risk factors

ABSTRACT

The inclusion of dynamic factors in risk assessment measures used with forensic populations has largely been considered an improvement in both the accuracy and utility of these assessments in informing treatment and sentencing. However, there are important challenges associated with the current approach to the conceptualisation, identification, and use of dynamic factors in risk assessment. Whereas some of these challenges relate to applied settings (such as the use of measures with different offender populations), there are also deeper questions regarding the construct validity of dynamic risk measures and the methodological strategies used to identify them. More emphasis on theoretically driven research is needed, to identify causal and explanatory relationships between dynamic risk factors and recidivism. We hope that highlighting these challenges can help to build a consensus on a future research agenda for dynamic risk factors.     

How useful are psychometric scores in predicting recidivism for treated sex offenders?

This study examined the relationship between psychometric test scores, psychometric test profiles, and sexual and/or violent reconviction. A sample of 3,402 convicted sexual offenders who attended a probation service-run sexual offender treatment programme in the community completed a battery of psychometric tests pre- and posttreatment. Using Cox regression, posttreatment scores on measures of self-esteem, an ability to relate to fictional characters, and recognition of risk factors were, individually, predictive of recidivism. When psychometric tests were grouped into dynamic risk domains, only the pretreatment scores of the domain labelled socioaffective functioning (SAF) predicted recidivism and added predictive power to a static risk assessment. The number of risk domains that were dysfunctional pretreatment also predicted recidivism outcome; however, this did not add predictive power to a static risk assessment tool. Possible explanations for the superiority of pre- over posttreatment scores in predicting reconviction are discussed, and directions for further research considered.     

Beyond static and dynamic risk factors: the incremental validity of release planning for predicting sex offender recidivism

Both desistance research and strengths-based approaches to offender rehabilitation suggest that attempts to reduce sex offender recidivism should attend to an offender's release environment. Recent research has demonstrated that better quality release planning is associated with reduced recidivism; however, whether release planning contributes significant incremental validity in predicting recidivism over and above static and dynamic risk factors is unclear. In the present study, release planning was retrospectively assessed for a sample of child molesters (n = 196) who had been released into the community following completion of a prison-based treatment program and its relative contribution to recidivism risk prediction was investigated. The average follow-up period was 11.08 years, during which 13.3% of the sample were convicted of a new sexual offence. Hierarchical Cox regression analyses showed that release planning contributed additional predictive validity for sexual recidivism after controlling for static and dynamic risk factors. Findings suggest that assessment of release planning might improve accuracy of sex offender risk assessments and that improved release planning should contribute to reductions in recidivism.     

Juvenile recidivism and length of stay

Official data maintained by the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice of 16,779 juveniles released from commitment programs to the community or aftercare between July 1, 1998 and June 30, 2000 were examined in this study. No consistent relationship between length of confinement and recidivism was found. The effects of length of stay were mediated based on the risk level of the commitment facility and gender. The length of confinement was only significant for juveniles released from high-risk facilities and male offenders. More research must be conducted to further examine the positive and negative impact of confinement on juvenile re-offending. Future research must include in its analysis the effect of program quality and treatment. Both factors may significantly mediate the relationship between confinement and recidivism.     

An Empirical Review of Family Group Conferencing in Juvenile Offenses

This study reports the results of an effect size analysis of the effectiveness of family group conferencing (FGC) on recidivism and satisfaction in juvenile offenses. Analyses were conducted on nine studies consisting of 2,880 juveniles. The average recidivism effect size for all studies showed no FGC treatment effect on recidivism. A total satisfaction effect size was calculated by the mean score of all satisfaction variables for victims, offenders, and supporters. The average total satisfaction effect size was moderate. The average effect size for satisfaction of victim, offender, and supporters was calculated for all satisfaction variables. The average total satisfaction effect size for victims was strong, moderate for offenders, and mild for parents and supporters. Between groups, comparisons were conducted to examine differences in overall satisfaction by participant group. While there were higher effect sizes for victims compared to supporters and offenders, there were no statistically significant differences between groups. Results find no support for the effectiveness of FGC in reducing recidivism. Results do show higher effect sizes for FGC in comparison to control groups in satisfaction with the criminal justice process. Recommendations for methodological improvements in future FGC research are discussed.     

Short Term Change in Attitude and Motivating Factors to Change Abusive Behavior of Male Batterers after Participating in a Group Intervention Program Based on the Pro-Feminist and Cognitive-Behavioral Approach

The Domestic Abuse Education Project (DAEP), in Burlington, Middlebury, and St. Albans, Vermont, is a group based domestic abuse intervention program, based in a pro-feminist and cognitive-behavioral approach for domestic violence intervention and prevention. A pre and post-test instrument was developed and implemented to determine short-term change in attitude of participants and motivating factors to change behavior, after completing the twenty-seven session program. After the program, participants reported a positive change in attitudes regarding their abusive behavior and stereotypical beliefs about women. Participants were also more motivated to change their behavior by the effect abuse has on their family relationships. However, many participants continued to agree that insecurity, jealousy, and alcohol and drug use can cause violence. The positive changes in attitude and motivational factors show that this is an effective model in changing underlying batterer attitudes that provide rationale for abusive behavior.     

Women Coming Home: Long‐Term Patterns of Recidivism

Drawing on recent scholarship on prisoner reentry and gendered pathways to crime, this research explores how social relationships, incarceration experiences, and community context, and the intersection of these factors with race, influence the occurrence and timing of recidivism. Using a large, modern sample of women released from prison, we find that women who are drug dependent, have less education, or have more extensive criminal histories are more likely to fail on parole and to recidivate more quickly during the eight year follow‐up period. We also observe racial variation in the effect of education, drug use, and neighborhood concentrated disadvantage on recidivism. This study highlights the importance of an intra‐gender, theoretical understanding of recidivism, and has import for policy aimed at female parolees.     

Global risk factors and the prediction of recidivism rates in a sample of first-time misdemeanant offenders

This article examines the prediction of recidivism using the Global Risk Assessment Device (GRAD), a reliable and valid measure of dynamic factors associated with family characteristics, peers, mental health, substance abuse, trauma exposure, educational concerns, accountability, and health risks. Using a sample of adult caregivers of first-time misdemeanant offenders, two factors-education and accountability-were significantly associated with recidivistic behavior, supporting the use of GRAD data in correctly identifying first-time offenders who have the greatest and the least likelihood for future offending behavior. Additional analyses utilizing parent reports on African American males indicate that the GRAD provides discrimination in the prediction of recidivism in a group typically seen as being high risk simply because of their gender and race. The assessment drives intervention approach of the GRAD is discussed in terms of using reports from adults to accurately place youth into appropriate levels of supervision and treatment.     

Social psychological risk factors,delinquency and age of onset

Based on data from the 2014 Communities that Care Youth Survey (CCYS), the authors examine the association between risk factors of tenth graders and age of onset (never, 14 or older, 13 or younger) of three antisocial behaviors/delinquency (got arrested; carried a handgun to school; and attacked someone with the intent of seriously hurting them). Risk factors are under four domains: family, community, school, and peer. The age of onset and risk literature are discussed. The purpose of this research is to examine what risk factors are associated with age of onset. Individual risk factors under the peer domain had the strongest association with all three antisocial behaviors.     

Domestic violence research: what have we learned and where do we go from here?

Domestic violence has been an intense area of study in recent decades. Early studies helped with the understanding of the nature of perpetration, the cycle of violence, and the effect of family violence on children. More recently, studies have focused on beginning to evaluate domestic violence interventions and their effects on recidivism. This article acknowledges the importance of what we have learned about the prevalence and impact of domestic violence and explores the need for more focused effort to pinpoint interventions that are effective with perpetrators and victims. Methodological issues relevant to past intervention studies are also discussed and future research directions are outlined.     

Identifying Three Types of Violent Offenders and Predicting Violent Recidivism While on Probation: A Classification Tree Analysis

This study employs classification tree analysis (CTA) to address whether 3 groups of violent offenders have similar or different risk factors for violent recidivism while on probation. A sample of 1344 violent offenders on probation was classified as generalized aggressors (N = 302), family only aggressors (N = 321), or nonfamily only aggressors (N = 717). The strongest predictor of violent recidivism while on probation was whether the offender was a generalized aggressor or not, with generalized aggressors more likely to be arrested for new violent crimes. Prior arrests for violent crimes predicted violent recidivism of generalized aggressors, but did not significantly predict violent recidivism of family only and nonfamily only aggressors. For generalized aggressors and family only batterers, treatment noncompliance was an important risk predictor of violent recidivism. CTA compared to logistic regression classified a higher percentage of cases into low-risk and high-risk groups, provided higher improvement in classification accuracy of violent recidivists beyond chance performance, and provided a better balance of false positives and false negatives. The implications for the risk assessment and domestic violence literature are discussed.     

The predictive validity of criminogenic needs for male and female offenders: Comparing the relative impact of needs in predicting recidivism

Most instruments used to assess offenders' risk of recidivism were developed and validated on male samples. Use of these instruments with female offenders is, however, common practice. This use with female offenders implies the assumption that the risk of recidivism can be predicted on the basis of the same risk factors for women as for men. Yet, this implied gender-neutrality of offender risk instruments has been the topic of much debate. This study compared criminogenic needs in male and female offenders and their relevance in predicting recidivism. A large sample of male and female offenders (N = 16,239) charged with a range of index offenses was studied. Results mainly support the gender neutrality of existing offender risk and needs assessment. However, results do suggest that some criminogenic needs may indeed have a different impact on recidivism for men and women. Problems with accommodation, education and work, and relationships with friends were more strongly correlated to general recidivism in men than in women. For women, difficulties with emotional well-being had a stronger correlation with recidivism than for men. In addition, relative to all other criminogenic needs, problems with emotional well-being were more important for women than for men in predicting general as well as violent recidivism. However, because the bivariate correlation for female offenders between emotional difficulties and recidivism is weak (as it is for male offenders), the question remains whether the relative importance of emotional difficulties in predicting recidivism in women actually has clinical relevance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).     

Disparate reports of stress and family relations between youth who commit sexual crimes and their caregivers

Certain family factors, including dynamics, interactions and communication patterns, experiences of intra-familial victimisation, overall functioning and attachment can increase propensities for the commission of a sexual crime and may even be linked to recidivism. However, there is an absence of research that examines factors that contribute to problematic family relationships and how youth and caregivers vary in perceptions of family relationships. The current cross-sectional research study delivered the same validated instruments to youth (n?=?46) and their caregivers (n?=?46) to determine relative perceptions of family relationships and stress. Two multiple regression models were conducted to determine factors that contribute to problematic family relationships. Youth reported greater stress scores and more problems in family relationships relative to caregivers. Stress contributed to family relationship problems for youth and caregivers, but protective factors were associated with less family relationship problems for caregivers. Treatment and research implications are discussed.     

Urban adolescent mothers exposed to community, family, and partner violence: is cumulative violence exposure a barrier to school performance and participation?

Using a risk and resilience perspective, the authors assessed urban adolescent mothers' exposure to community, family, and partner violence and analyzed the relationships between cumulative violence exposure and multiple school outcomes, within the context of welfare reforms. Positive attitude toward school and social support were examined as moderators of violence exposure on school outcomes. The authors pilot tested the questionnaire with 10 participants, then surveyed 120 adolescent mothers regarding their violence exposure, school performance and participation, positive attitude toward school, and social support. Results indicate very high rates of lifetime exposure to violence; intercorrelations and regression analyses indicate that as violence exposure increases, school outcomes tend to worsen, with positive attitude toward school found to be a significant moderator of the effects of exposure to community violence on behavior problems in school. Implications for researchers, practitioners, school policies and programs, and welfare policies and programs conclude the article.