What does cost-benefit analysis add to decision making? Evidence from the criminal justice literature

This paper asks whether undertaking a cost-benefit analysis provides additional information to policy makers as compared to an analysis solely of the effect of an intervention. A literature review identified 106 evaluations of criminal justice interventions that reported both an effect size and measures of net benefit. Data on net benefit and effect size were extracted from these studies. We found that effect size is only weakly related to net benefits. The rank order of net benefits and effect size are minimally correlated. Furthermore, we found that the two analytic methods would yield opposing policy recommendations for more than one in four interventions. These bi-variate findings are supported by the results of multivariate models. However, further research is needed to verify the accuracy of the standard errors on net benefit estimates, so these models must be interpreted with caution.

Unintended consequences: experimental evidence for the criminogenic effect of prison security level placement on post-release recidivism

Most prison systems use quantitative instruments to classify and assign inmates to prison security levels commensurate to their level of risk. Bench and Allen (The Prison Journal 83(4):367-382, 2003) offer evidence that the assignment to higher security prisons produces elevated levels of misconduct independent of the individual’s propensity to commit misconduct. Chen and Shapiro (American Law and Economics Review, 2007) demonstrate that assignment to higher security level among inmates with the same classification scores increases post-release recidivism. Underlying both of these claims is the idea that the prison social environment is criminogenic. In this paper we examine the theoretical premises for this claim and present data from the only experiment that has been conducted that randomly assigns inmates to prison security levels and evaluates both prison misconduct and post-release recidivism. The experiment’s results show that inmates with a level III security classification who were randomly assigned to a security level III prison in the California prison system had a hazard rate of returning to prison that was 31% higher than that of their randomly selected counterparts who were assigned to a level I prison. Thus, the offenders’ classification assignments at admission determined their likelihood of returning to prison. There were no differences in the institutional serious misconduct rates of these same prisoners. These results are contradictory to a specific deterrence prediction and more consistent with peer influence and environmental strain theories. These results also raise important policy implications that challenge the way correctional administrators will have to think about the costs and benefits of separating inmates into homogeneous pools based on classification scores.

Restoration and Retribution: How Including Retributive Components Affects the Acceptability of Restorative Justice Procedures

Two studies investigated people’s perceptions of the acceptability of restorative justice procedures for handling crimes that differ in severity. Results from Study 1 supported our hypothesis that as crimes increase in seriousness, people require a restorative justice procedure that also has a possible retributive component (i.e. a prison sentence). Study 1 also demonstrated that individuals assigned lower prison sentences for offenders who successfully completed a restorative procedure as compared to a traditional court procedure. The results from Study 2 replicated those from Study 1, as well as demonstrating that offenders who failed to successfully complete the restorative procedure received no reduction in prison sentence. These findings suggest that in order for citizens to view a restorative justice procedure as an acceptable alternative to the traditional court system for serious crimes, the procedure must allow for the option of some retributive measures.

Improving impact evaluations through randomised experiments: The challenge of the National Research Council report for European criminology

The National Research Council (NRC) report on Improving Evaluation of Anticrime Programs presents and discusses a wide array of techniques of evaluation. Although recognising the very high internal validity of randomised experiments, it considers, under certain conditions, quasi-experiments and observational studies as equally valid approaches. This conclusion is critically reviewed from a European perspective, where only a few randomised trials have been realised so far. It is argued that many critiques routinely addressed to randomised experiments, such as ethical concerns or low acceptance among practitioners, are either unfounded or can be adequately dealt with through imaginative adjustments. On the other hand, randomised controlled trials need to take the challenge of broadening the perspective, especially by looking at long-term effects that no other method can consider with comparable internal validity. Other recommendations include using innovative measures of re-offending, considering dynamic rather than static criteria of re-offending, and looking, beyond re-offending, at rehabilitation in other areas of life. Particular challenges are the possible placebo effects that evaluators in criminal justice have not yet found appropriate ways to deal with.

The Brooklyn mediation field test

This paper describes an experiment in which 465 felony arrest cases in Kings County, NY, USA, were, randomly, either filed in court and prosecuted or sent to a dispute resolution center for adjudication. The cases all involved persons who were acquainted, and nearly half were either intimate partners or in other immediate family relationships. The results indicated that the mediation process was perceived more positively by complainants than was prosecution and that going through mediation enhances complainants’ perceptions of their relationships with defendants to a greater degree than going through the court process. However, there was no evidence that mediation was no more effective than prosecution in preventing recidivism. Not surprisingly, in cases involving intimate partners or immediate family members, the offenders were most likely to experience continuing problems whether they were sent to mediation or were prosecuted. One of the values of this study is that, in the late 1970s, when this research was conducted, mediation was considered by many to be a legitimate alternative to prosecution in family violence cases, including cases arising from intimate partner violence. The data that we collected would be difficult to replicate in today’s political climate. While our study did not find that mediation reduced the odds of recidivism in these cases, neither did we find that mediation made victims less safe. Thus, it partially supports the sentiments of researchers such as Braithwaite and Strang (Restorative justice and family violence. In Strang H, Braithwaite J (eds) Restorative justices and family violence. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 1−22; 2002), who argue that—given the evidence for success of restorative justice in reducing re-offending in cases other than family violence—it is worth testing whether similar beneficial effects could be found in applying restorative justice approaches to family violence cases.

Bridging the gap between judges and the public? A multi-method study

This article examines the gap between Dutch judges and the public in terms of preferred severity of sentences. It focuses on one particular explanation usually given for the gap: the lack of case-specific, detailed information on the part of the general public. Findings from three studies are reported and combined: (a) a survey among a sample from the Dutch population (N = 2,127), (b) a sentencing experiment with judges in Dutch criminal courts (N = 180), and (c) a sentencing experiment, using the same case materials as with judges, but now with a sample from the Dutch population (N = 917). Results show that providing the public with detailed case information indeed reduces severity of sentences preferred. Moreover, those members of the public who were given short and unbalanced newspaper reports preferred much harsher sentences than did those who were given the full case files. However, despite such a reduction in punitiveness as a result of information, the public’s preferred sentences remain much more punitive than judges’ sentences pertaining to exactly the same case files.

A critical review of past studies on China’s corrections and recidivism

This article reviews studies of China’s correctional system and recidivism in approximately the last two decades. Studies on the Chinese correctional system may be grouped into two subfields, one on studies of the correctional system itself (e.g., the composition and the function of the system), and the other on studies of prison inmates in other related topics (e.g., their criminal behavior). Studies on China’s recidivism showed a very low recidivism rate, and China’s crime prevention strategies were closely related to its societal structure and social control. Future studies in these two areas need to focus on the most recent changes in the Chinese criminal justice system, and gain more access to Chinese prisons to do empirical testing.

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Bridging the Gap: A Pragmatic Approach to Understanding Critical Criminologies and Policy Influence

The longstanding connection between criminological theory, research and the design and delivery of criminal justice policy has been challenged in the last 3 decades by a variety of constraints such as the rise of neoconservative attitudes, symbolic public discourses about crime, and the proliferation of capture, monitor, and detect strategies brought about by technological innovation. Building on Kevin Haggerty’s (2004. Displaced expertise: three constraints on the policy-relevance of criminological thought. Theoretical Criminology, 8(2), 211–231.) exploration of the external factors that challenge the transition from criminological theory to criminal justice policy and practice, this paper considers internal challenges that may also be relevant. By examining two recent critical criminological orientating strategies, namely left realism and constitutive criminology, the paper concludes by suggesting that an integrated perspective which draws strengths from each of these approaches could assist critical criminologists to better influence policy in the future.

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Why criminal harms matter: Plato’s abiding insight in the Laws

Commentators have contested the role of resulting harm in criminal law since the time of Plato. Unfortunately, they have neglected what may be not only the best discussion of the issue, but also the first—namely, Plato’s one-paragraph discussion in the Laws. Plato’s discussion succeeds in reconciling two, seemingly irreconcilable viewpoints that till now have been in stalemate. Thus, Plato reconciles the view, that an offender’s desert is solely a function of his subjective willingness to act in disregard of the legitimate interests of others, with the view that criminal sentences can appropriately be made to depend upon how indignant, angry, and upset society is at an offender based upon the results of his culpable conduct. In doing so, Plato casts light on retributive theories of punishment by suggesting that an adjudicator can be committed to retribution and yet rightly believe that it is inappropriate to give an offender the full punishment he deserves. He also lays a basis for the view that causation, rather being predicates for the just punishment of offenders toward whom the public is intuitively angry for harm, is the consequence of the public’s being intuitively angry at offenders for harm.

Complex Harmony: The Military and Professional Models of Policing

This article discusses the importance of the military model throughout police reform, and how it has coexisted with, rather than been supplanted by, the professional model. Early reformers chose the military upon which to structure their concept of the urban police. That concept was refashioned into the professional model as the background of the reformers changed. This new model then replaced the military model in criminal justice literature, public vernacular, and police self-image, although the military model continued to exist under the radar. Today the “militarization of the police” is a major criminal justice topic, but its recent visibility is actually an ongoing part of the original reform ideal.

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Influencing public policy: an embedded criminologist reflects on California prison reform

Criminologists bemoan their lack of influence on U.S. crime policy, believing that the justice system would be improved if their research findings were more central in decision making. I had an opportunity to test that notion as I participated in California’s historic attempt to reform its prisons over the past 4 years. I became an embedded criminologist, where I was able to observe and contribute to the inner workings of state government. This article reports on my accomplishments with respect to fostering research activities and shifting the department’s focus towards prisoner reintegration. It discusses some of the lessons I learned, including the personal toll that such work entails, the importance of the timing of policy initiatives, and the power of rigorous methodology and clear communication. I conclude by recommending that other policy-oriented criminologists seek out similar experiences, as I believe our academic skills are uniquely suited and ultimately necessary to create a justice system that does less harm.

Estimating Mean Length of Stay in Prison: Methods and Applications

This paper examines various approaches to studying the mean length of stay in prison. The literature contains a wide range of estimates of this quantity. The discrepancies that appear in these estimates and in the conclusions reached from them have been the subject of several reviews. We build upon that work, using the life table as the gold standard, to demonstrate the inaccuracy of common measures such as the ratio of the population size to the annual number of entrances or the mean length of time served by those exiting in a particular period. This demonstration is conducted in two parts. One part uses model populations with constant growth rates; the second part relies upon simulated prison populations with time-varying rates of entrance and exit. In addition, we introduce two new indirect measures that are more accurate than several existing indirect measures and that are relatively easy to use. The new measures are based on the entrance rate or the exit rate and adjust for the growth rate of the prison population.

Advances in Offender Profiling: A Systematic Review of the Profiling Literature Published Over the Past Three Decades

Despite the immense popularity of offender profiling as both a topic of fascination for the general public as well as an academic field of study, concerns have been raised about the development of this area of scientific inquiry. The present study provides a preliminary step towards moving the field forward as it reviews the type and quality of studies dealing with offender profiling over the past 31 years. Based on a content analysis of 132 published articles, the review indicates that researchers investigating this phenomenon rarely publish multiple articles, and they are generally reported across many different journals, thereby making knowledge synthesis and knowledge transfer problematic. In addition, the majority of papers published in the area are discussion pieces (e.g., discussing what profiling is, how profiles are constructed, and when profiling is useful), despite the fact that the processes underlying offender profiling are still not well understood. Finally, although peer-reviewed articles exploring this topic have steadily increased, the statistical sophistication of these studies is sorely lacking, with most including no statistics or formal analyses of data. Suggestions for future research and recommendations to streamline efforts in this field are provided based on the results of this review.

Specifying the Relationship Between Crime and Prisons

There is no scholarly consensus as to the proper functional form of the crime equation, particularly with regard to one critical, explanatory variable—prison population. The critical questions are whether crime and prison rates must be differenced, whether they are cointegrated, and whether they are simultaneously determined—whether crime and prison cause one another. To determine the proper specification, different researchers have applied unit-root, cointegration, and Granger tests to very similar data sets and obtained very different results. This has led to very different specifications and predictably different implications for public policy. These differences are more likely to be due to the methods used, rather than to real differences among the data sets. When the best available methods are used to identify the proper specification for a panel of U.S. states, results are fairly clear. Crime rates and prison populations are close to unit-root; crime and prison are not cointegrated; crime clearly affects subsequent prison populations. Thus the best specification of the crime equation must rely on differenced data and instrumental variables. Alternative specifications run a substantial risk of spurious results.

Evaluation of structured cognitive–behavioural treatment programmes in reducing criminal recidivism

This paper reports the outcome of a 17-month follow-up of structured, community-based, offence-focused, intervention programmes designed to reduce rates of re-conviction amongst adjudicated offenders under probation supervision. Three separate programmes were examined, all derived from a cognitive social learning model of risk factors for repeated involvement in crime. Using a quasi-experimental design, the study compared male offenders who had completed programmes (n = 215) with a non-completion group (n = 181), a group allocated to programmes but who had not commenced them (n = 339), and a control sample (n = 194) not allocated to the programmes. Outcome data analysis employed (a) an “intent to treat” between-group comparison, (b) “treatment received” methodology. In order to take account of selection bias, data were further analysed using instrumental variables and propensity scores; results suggested a possible treatment effect for moderate and higher-risk cases. Factors influencing different interpretations of these findings were considered.

Language, Culture, and Behavior in Prison: The Israeli Case

The current study describes the everyday life of Israeli prisoners and analyzes the actions they perform and the language they use as a reflection of their constraints, distresses, worldviews, beliefs, and attitudes. Data were subjected to a content analysis, and the salience of the values, norms and argot terms were assessed using two measures, attention and intensity. The inmates’ values and norms and the argot expressions were divided into categories with reference to different aspects of prison experience: prisoners’ adherence to the code, inmates’ interpersonal loyalty, sexual behavior in prison, drugs, violence and miscellaneous.

Statistical inference and meta-analysis

Statistical inference is a common feature of meta-analysis. Statistical inference depends on a formal model that accurately characterizes certain key features of how the studies to be summarized were generated. The implications of this requirement are discussed and questions are raised about the credibility of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests routinely reported.

State Power and Penal Rhetoric: A Historical Analysis of the Prison System in Taiwan

The aim of this study is to present a construction of the history of the prison system in Taiwan in the context of the intertwined structures of penal discourses and the governmentality of the state. The prison system in Taiwan has been subject to different ruling political regimes, ranging from colonised, authoritarian to liberal-democratic systems between 1895 and the present. The history of imprisonment can be divided into six stages, each of which consists of distinct governmental strategies that shape prominent penal discourses. My purpose was to uncover the exercising power of governmentality, further shaping, guiding and affecting the penal discourses via rationalities and technologies upon which prison administration depends.

Building better crime simulations: systematic replication and the introduction of incremental complexity

Computer simulation models have changed the ways in which researchers are able to observe and study social phenomena such as crime. The ability of researchers to replicate the work of others is fundamental to a cumulative science, yet this rarely occurs in computer simulations. In this paper, we argue that, for computer simulations to be seen as a legitimate methodology in social science, and for new knowledge to be generated, serious consideration needs to be given to how simulations could or should be replicated. We develop the concept of systematic replication, a method for developing simulation experiments that move towards a generalisable inference that is directed, explicit, and incorporates complexity incrementally. Finally, we outline how the discrete parts of this process might be carried out in practice, using a simple simulation model.