A Resurgent Presidency? Portuguese Semi-Presidentialism and the 2016 Elections

This article analyses the Portuguese presidential elections of January 2016, setting these within the backdrop of recent semi-presidential practice in Portugal. The election took place in the context of an apparent hollowing of the presidency, a pattern that potentially reflects the bailout that marked most of the second term of the outgoing president, Cavaco Silva. This pattern also helps explain the second-order nature of this presidential election. Despite potentially being an ‘open’ election – in that the incumbent had reached term limits – the election was characterised by low citizen mobilisation, low partisan involvement and low competitiveness. The initial two months of the newly elected president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, suggests he is seeking to invert this hollowing pattern by mobilising popular support behind the presidency.     

IRAN OBSERVED: THE RISE OF THE IRANIAN NEO-CONSERVATIVES

McDowall relates how in 2005, contrary to the predictions of many western observers, Ahmadinejad was elected as President of Iran, reflecting popular disillusion with the reformist president, Khatami, and the rise of a new generation of politicians, whose relationships had been forged during the war with Iraq. Ahmadinejad came to power at an opportune moment: he could profile himself as an opponent of America and Israel. Wholesale changes in personnel formed the other mark of his revolution. Four years on, his populist economic policies have not proved effective, which could be significant in terms of the 2009 presidential elections. The crucial question is whether there is a suitable opposition candidate who might run against him. This is the edited text of the lecture which he gave to the Society on Wednesday 7 May 2008.     

The U. N. Disposal of Eritrea

This forms the greater part of a lecture given on the 29th January,with Major-General Sir Richard Lewis in the Chair. In introducingthe speaker General Lewis said that Sir Duncan Cumming had beenone of the first to enter Eritrea when it was captured duringthe war and had been the last to leave in 1952. During, andafter, the war, Sir Duncan had been responsible for the civiladministration of all of the occupied Italian Colonies in theMiddle East, of which Eritrea was one. In 1949, he returnedto his own service in the Sudan and in February, 1951, whenhis predecessor retired from Eritrea owing to ill health, heconsented to undertake the difficult task of implementing theUnited Nations resolution on Eritrea. In eighteen months hehad to hold democratic general elections, in an area where suchthings were not well understood, to create a Government in accordancewith the provisions of the constitution and the resolution,to create a civil service, which entailed as a starting pointthe elementary education of selected literates, and to leavethe country with a balanced budget. Sir Duncan had not had aclean start at the job because at the time of his arrival inEritrea it was not possible to move about freely. The localbrigands had made unescorted movement unsafe: incidents occurreddaily and murders and atrocities were frequent. By the latesummer of 1951 he had made brigandage unprofitable and was ableto turn to his constructive task. In doing so, he won the confidenceand respect and, indeed, the affection, not of merely some ofthe conflicting interests but of them all.     

The Indian states and the new Constitution

Ben Affleck's film ARGO is a good film, but not all the details are accurate. This article is by Martin Williams, the British diplomat who, contrary to the picture painted in the film, personally escorted to safety the Americans who had escaped when the Iranian Revolutionary guards took over the US Embassy. He sets that episode in the broader context of his personal experience of working during a complicated period during which initially there were major commercial opportunities for British firms, and then the power of the Shah started to wane, and finally he was overthrown. The installation of a very different regime entirely changed the approach which diplomats needed to adopt in Tehran.     

The Formation of the New Government in Taiwan and Japan-Taiwan Relations

This article introduces the background of the presidential and congressional election and discusses the reason for the results. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won both the presidential and congress members' elections, which signals emergence of the first real regime change in Taiwan. However, the style of the Tsai government isn't the same as that of the Chen Shui-bian government and will probably adopt a more modest policy on the cross-strait issue. On the other hand, the Nationalist Party (KMT) lost the election so severely that it's so difficult to recover the situation. On this point, it’s possible that the policy framework of Taiwan, like a two party system, will change drastically in the near future. Foreign policy, especially policy regarding Japan, will be changed by the new government. Actually, the People's Republic of China (PRC) government basically didn't interfere with Ma's foreign policy, so Ma could achieve many foreign policy initiatives. He concluded an economic partnership agreement (EPA) with Singapore and New Zealand, and agreements for investment and fishing with Japan. However, the PRC probably won't provide enough room for foreign policy for the Tsai government.     

The New Left and Health Care Reform in El Salvador

After a decade of civil war and four consecutive conservative administrations, El Salvador's leftist FMLN won its first presidential election in 2009. How has public policy changed under this New Left government, and why? This article addresses the question in the area of public health care. An alliance of health sector leaders with both technocratic and diplomatic abilities capitalized on the policy window opened by the FMLN's electoral victory and worked within the parameters set by President Mauricio Funes, the FMLN, and civil society to universalize health care. The new minister of health, a professional highly esteemed inside and outside the country, was able to engage both a large social movement protesting neoliberal policy and an energetic health diplomat sent by the Pan American Health Organization. In designing its reform, this alliance benefited from international as well as “bottom‐up” policy diffusion.     

Policies,Principles, and Polls: Bill Clinton’s Third Way Welfare Politics 1992–1996

Bill Clinton in his 1992 presidential campaign promised that, if elected, he would bring about the “end of welfare as we know it.” This catchy election pledge aimed to address middle class concerns about so–called welfare dependency while also arguing that the government had an important role to play in fighting poverty and unemployment. Clinton’s Third Way position, at best, offered a way out of the liberal/conservative impasse on how to effectively reform America’s welfare system. At worst, Clinton’s position undermined the concept of welfare entitlements that the Democratic Party had established in America. As it turned out, in 1996 during the lead up to that year’s presidential election, President Clinton signed into law the most significant federal welfare Act since the 1960s. However, the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA) that Clinton signed had largely been drafted by congressional Republicans. This article draws on interviews with three of Clinton’s senior welfare advisers to examine his welfare reform proposals and politics. It concludes that the failure of Clinton’s Third Way welfare agenda opened the way for more conservative reforms. This experience is illustrative of the pitfalls of Third Way politics with its mix of post–entitlement welfare policies and hard–nosed electoral positioning.     

The Organization of the Executive Branch in Latin America: What We Know and What We Need to Know

This article proposes a research agenda for the organization of the executive branch in Latin America by reviewing the literature on the U.S. and Latin American presidencies and outlining the research gap between them. The study finds that while strong, regionwide patterns have been established about cabinets in Latin America, research is lagging behind on the presidential center, presidential advisory networks, and their effects in policymaking. The article sets forth a series of research questions and suggests a combination of quantitative, social network, and case study strategies to address them.     

China's 'Omnidirectional Diplomacy': Cooperation with all,Emphasis on Major Powers

In the first half of 2001, China's relationship with the two economic power houses, the US and Japan, was anything but smooth. Tomoyuki Kojima, professor of political science and dean of policy management at Keio University describes the principle of China's foreign policy as ''omnidirectional'' diplomacy. The strained relations with the US and Japan, however, were contradictory to this principle which emphasizes international cooperation with a focus on world powers. In the following article, he examines the main reasons for China's problems with both countries. At the time of writing, Shanghai is to host the 2001 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in October, China is poised to enter the World Trade Organization and Beijing had also won the bid to host the 2008 Olympics. As China becomes more and more internationalized, Kojima argues that the emphasis on cooperation will be perceived as having been of vital importance.     

Election through complaint and controversy for political power in Chile, 1874–1925

SUMMARY

This article offers reflections on the power relations between the executive and legislative branches of the Chilean state by examining the way political parties leveraged the electoral system to balance the weight of each branch in the configuration of government. The period from 1874 to 1924 is framed by a cycle of reforms to Chile’s 1833 constitution that were pushed through by liberal sectors to limit the power of the executive under the country’s presidential regime, efforts that contributed to a final breakdown of the presidential regime following civil war in 1891. That year the victorious revolutionary forces implemented a parliamentarian system that remained in place until it was overthrown by a military coup. The literature on this process has studied the use of legislative manoeuvres such as obstruction, accusation and filibuster by political parties to weaken the executive power. Little has been written, however, about the way parties exploited the rules and procedures of the electoral system and, specifically, the use of official complaints and the process known as calificación (qualification) by which congress audited final election results. This article will help fill that void, focusing on understanding how both practices worked and the effects that the election reforms of 1874, 1884 and 1890 had on them.     

Debates about Ethnicity,Class and Nation in Allende’s Chile (1970–1973)

In 1964, Salvador Allende signed the ‘Cautín Pact’ with leftist Mapuche organisations in Temuco in which they pledged to support Allende’s presidential campaign and he vowed to introduce important socio‐economic reforms to benefit Mapuche communities and to respect their culture and religion. As has been argued in previous studies, there were limitations to the implementation of these reforms in practice. This article suggests, however, that even so, an important space was opened up for – and by – Mapuche people within the government’s left‐wing nationalist project. This shift was also reflected in the works of intellectuals closely linked to the Unidad Popular.     

Understanding Presidential Failure in South America

This article examines the issue of presidential failure in South America by evaluating the multiple factors that create risk of resignation, removal, or impeachment of presidents. The study draws on various economic variables that have not been thoroughly investigated in the past and uses survival analysis to identify what factors are influential. In performing this testing, the importance of variables such as civil protest, executive wrongdoing, and specific measures of economic hardship—inflation and prolonged recession—becomes clear. Majority legislative support also remains significant, supporting early arguments about the influence of presidential institutions. This investigation provides a unique perspective on presidential survival while evaluating the importance of previously excluded variables in a comprehensive manner.     

昂山素季与缅甸政治

反对派领袖昂山素季赢得国际社会的关注与民众的尊敬。自上世纪80年代末以来,她的个人命运同整个缅甸息息相关。她与军政府最终达成一些共识。2002年5月6日,昂山素季无条件获释。通过解除施加在她身上的桎梏,缅甸也许将能逐步实现全国和解。     

Parlament und Verfassungsgerichtsbarkeit in der österreichischen Monarchie

SUMMARY

In this article Maria Sofia Corciulo discusses the dissolution of the recently elected ‘Chambre introuvable’ by Louis XVIII, following his second restoration in 1815. The king had been completely surprised by the outcome of the elections, which returned an ultra-royalist majority. This put severe pressure on the king and his ministers who were committed to moderate, conciliationist policies, in which they were supported and pressured by the representatives of the Allied powers. The Ultras found themselves in confrontation with the ministers and policies of the king. This created a paradox, in that the Ultras, who wished to reinstate features of the ancien régime, could only do so by imposing parliamentarianism on the king, and use their majority to force him to change his ministers and adopt policies that they knew he opposed. On the other hand, the king felt he could only save the liberal constitutional values, which he and the ministers considered necessary if civil war was to be avoided, by a dissolution of the Chamber, for which there was no clear constitutional justification. The article discusses whether Louis XVIII, by his dissolution, which his critics claimed was a coup d'état, in fact secured the future of liberal constitutional government in France.     

Why the CCM won't lose: the roots of single-party dominance in Tanzania

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the factors contributing to single-party dominance in Tanzania. Despite the fact that Tanzania has had a multi-party democracy since 1995, the party which governed during single-party rule, the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has won the vast majority of seats in the National Assembly in the first four multi-party elections. In order to understand the CCM's grip on power, this article analyses the results of a survey conducted amongst subsistence farmers in Tanzania, which provides information on farmers’ livelihood conditions, access to media and political views, and hence provides insight into the preferences underlying voting behaviour. It discusses the dominant reasons for CCM support, as well as the characteristics of farmers who are more likely to support an opposition party. It concludes by discussing possible policy options for enhancing political competition in Tanzania.     

Power of the law or power of the sword: the conflictive relationship between the executive and the legislative in nineteenth-century Peru

ABSTRACT

The Peruvian parliament was a central institution in the early republic, but so far very little has been written on its history. This is due to the fact that military leaders took control of power for most of the nineteenth century. This article reflects on three main questions: what was the role of the legislative in nineteenth-century Peru? What was its relationship with the executive power? And what part did conflict play in these relationships? Most initial congresses were tasked with writing up constitutions, because institutions had to be created, and there was a strong belief that having a written charter mattered. The strongmen who took power felt the need to obtain legitimacy from both constitutions, and elections, but often did not see eye to eye with congress. This led congress to be closed, particularly when legislators refused to bow down to presidential power.     

Liberal and Illiberal Democracy in Latin America

This article examines the incidence of liberal and “illiberal” democracy in Latin America from 1978 through 2004. It demonstrates, first, that illiberal democracy—which combines free and fair elections with systematic constraints on citizens’rights—became the norm throughout the region. Second, it shows that regime transitions most often ended not in liberal democracy but in illiberal democracy. Third, rare events logit analysis reveals that two variables, hyperinflation and presidential elections, had significant impact on movement toward fuller democracy. As a form of short‐term economic shock, hyperinflation generates widespread discontent; given the opportunity to vote, citizens elect reformist opposition candidates who, once in office, remove controls on civil liberties. This scenario substantially increases the likelihood of transition from illiberal to liberal democracy.     

Latin America's Neocaudillismo: Ex‐Presidents and Newcomers Running for President… and Winning

Latin Americans have been voting for a surprisingly large number of ex‐presidents and newcomers in presidential elections since the late 1980s. This article looks at both the demand and supply sides of this phenomenon by focusing on economic anxieties and party crises as the key independent variables. Sometimes the relationship between these variables is linear: economic anxieties combined with party crises lead to rising ex‐presidents and newcomers. At other times the relationship is symbiotic: the rise of ex‐presidents leads to party crises, economic and political anxieties, and thus the rise of newcomers. This article concludes that the abundance of ex‐presidents and newcomers in elections—essentially, the new face of Latin America's caudillismo—does not bode well for democracy because it accelerates de‐institutionalization and polarizes the electorate.     

Business Versus Business? Grupos and Organized Business in Colombia

This article examines business political behavior in Colombia during the scandal-ridden presidency of Ernesto Samper (1994-98), highlighting the mechanisms by which grupos (diversified economic groups) undermined the ability of organized business to present collective political positions. Evidence that the presidential campaign had been funded by drug traffickers prompted business associations to demand Samper's resignation. But grupos , the firms of which are affiliated with associations, supported the president. This division weakened the position of organized business regarding the resignation, as well as its own political legitimacy. This study argues that grupos face strong incentives to act outside business associations to advance their particular interests. Scholars assessing the strength of organized business in Latin America will increasingly encounter the impact of grupos on business institutional responses to policy.