Readjustments in U.S. Cross-Taiwan Strait Policy

Washington had all along followed an ambiguity policy over its possible military intervention in a Taiwan contingency. However, recent years have witnessed readjustments towards＂ ＂double clarity＂ of a possible military response in case of a Chinese-initiated use of force and potential inaction in the event of a conflict derived from Taiwanese provocations to change the status quo by seeking de jure independence. In other words, it spells a policy shift toward ＂dual deterrence,＂ namely to deter the Chinese mainland from using force in seeking national reunification and to deter Taiwan from moving toward de jure independence. To prevent such eventuality, Washington made direct appeal to the Taiwan public to make clear its opposition to Taiwan independence.
The reasons behind the readjustments are not far to seek. They reflect shifts in U.S. strategic focus, changes in its China policy, political developments on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and President Bush＇s personal disgust with former Taiwan leader Chen Shuibian＇s cunning tricks.
However, resumption of Cross-Strait dialogue in the wake of the return to power of the Kuomintang （National Party） through the ballot in March may bring about new worries and possible further readjustments in U.S. cross-strait policy after the November presidential elections. Though uncertainties remain, in the pipeline may be an endeavor to prevent excessive cross-strait warmth and a possible tilt of Taiwan to the Chinese Mainland.     

利益、战略及美国台海政策的矛盾性

外交领域里的利益、战略与政策是相互关联、相互影响的一组变量。美国维持台海“不统、不独、不武”的政策是美国实现其台海利益最大化的战略意图。“不统”是美国实现霸权的必然选择；“不武”才能维持东亚和平的基本态势：中国制止“台独”的意志和决心使美国不得不以遏制“法理台独”来防止武力冲突。美国的台海政策本身就是自相矛盾的。     

Lifting the 'No Haste,Be Patient' Policy: Implications for Cross-Strait Relations

Cross-Strait relations remain deadlocked following Chen Shui-bian's inauguration as Taiwan's president. Amid this political stalemate, Chen's administration decided to change the 'no haste, be patient' ( jie-ji yueng-ren ) policy while refusing to endorse the 'one China' principle. While this policy change is in response to domestic demands, Chen and his ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are unlikely to reap any benefit from these actions without active cooperation from China's leaders. Beijing will continue to use its economic clout in an attempt to pull Taiwan into political union, as Taipei needs to nurture an environment favourable for domestic and foreign investment in Taiwan in order to maintain its competitive edge over China and thus preserve its de facto independence. Beijing's leaders will need to rethink their rigid stand on the 'one China' principle, since increased cross-Strait economic integration may not lead to the expected political union they desire.     

Approaches to Defining "Empire" and Characterizing United States Influence in the Contemporary World

The militant unilateralism of the George W. Bush administration has revived interest in such closely related and contested terms as "superpower,""hegemon,""empire," and "imperialism." This article identifies four different but somewhat overlapping approaches to defining "empire": ideal type, self-consciously empirical, constructivist, and overtly normative. The author's personal view is that any notion of American Empire or indeed U.S. hegemony or even superpower is profoundly misleading. Although the United States still ranks high on the scale of most traditional realist power factors, United States capabilities appear to be gravely waning today and its exercise of both hard and soft power has recently been so inept as to limit its current influence and possibly future role in global politics.     

美国防部《2009中国军力报告》评析

美国国防部发布的“中国军力报告”既是美国对中国军力的认知反应,也是美国拟定对华政策的重要参考依据。《2009中国军力报告》总体上缺乏新意,一方面反映奥巴马政府对华战略尚处于构建阶段,预示其将延续前任政府的对华政策;另一方面也表明中美关系的发展将处于相对稳定状态。然而,就报告出台的背景及报告本身的权威性而言,仍值得关注。     

How Far Can Taiwan Go?

This article explores the possibility of Taiwan's moving away from the status quo by either seeking reunification with the mainland or pursuing de jure independence, and particularly focuses on the latter scenario. Clearly, immediate reunification is not a viable option, but a declaration of independence may be. However, given the public attitude on the national identity issue, which underpins Taiwan's party structure, it is very difficult for the independence forces to control a majority of seats in the parliament. Thus, as long as the ROC constitutional structure remains essentially parliamentary, the chances that Taiwan will declare independence are not that great. Moreover, China's threat to use force against Taiwan if Taiwan declares independence and the tremendous economic interests involved in doing business with China, coupled with the US insistence on peace and stability in the region, all keep Taiwan from taking drastic measures in pursuit of independence.     

Sino-U.S. Relations in the New Century

On September 21, 2005, the Deputy Secretary of the United States Robert B. Zoellick in his speech at the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations pointed out that, the United States agrees that China is taking a peacefully developing path and it＇s a successful way of opening and joining the economic globalization that ＂＇no other newly emerged power has ever taken.＂ Zoellick emphasized that the United States should ＂encourage China to be a responsible stakeholder in the international system. ＂ If both the United States and China take the strategic interest into consideration, Zoellick＇s speech will definitely have positive impact on the Sino- U.S. relations ＇future.     

Future U.S.-Russian Relations

Presidential changes in Russia and the U.S. may open new opportunities for improving increasingly important bilateral relations, but expectations are not high. With the elapse of the so-called Putin autocracy and the Bush unilateralism, U.S.-Russian relations are overshadowed by a new ＂Cold Word War,＂ if not a Cold War. The U.S. will continue to accuse Russia of running an autocracy in order to justify its own invasive foreign conduct and gain the moral high-ground. The two powers will be involved in a bitter struggle, alternating between offensives and defensives, containment and cooperation.     

奥巴马的外交政策与中美关系展望

奥巴马成功当选美国总统,美国政治步入“奥巴马时代”。本质上属于自由主义的奥巴马具有“现实的理想主义”外交理念,在确保美国全球霸权地位的前提下,他会在安全、经济、民主以及全球性问题等对外政策领域有所调整。奥巴马对华政策的延续性将大于变革性,有理由对未来中美关系的发展持谨慎乐观的态度。     

U.S. National Identity,Political Elites,and a Patriotic Press Following September 11

In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on New York City and Washington, D.C. on September 11, 2001, U.S. government and military leaders often articulated distinctly pro-American themes in their public communications. We argue that this national identity discourse was at the heart of the U.S. government's attempt to unite the American public and to mobilize support for the ensuing "war on terrorism." With this perspective, we content analyzed Time and Newsweek newsmagazines for the five weeks following September 11 to identify potential communication strategies employed by government and military leaders to promote a sense of U.S. national identity. Findings suggest (a) that government and military officials consistently emphasized American core values and themes of U.S. strength and power while simultaneously demonizing the "enemy," and (b) that journalists closely paralleled these nationalist themes in their language.     

Strategic Balance in the Asia-Pacific Region

The authors analyze events in the Asia-Pacific region since the end of the Cold War and then draw three conclusions about the strategic balance of "one superpower, multiple major powers" in this region. First, compared with a stable superpower, the U.S., current multiple powers-China, Japan,Russia, ASEAN, India and Australia-are more dynamic.Second, two kinds of forces maintain order-a combination of national strength and non-national strength. On one hand, there are four different models which could ensure Asia-Pacific order in the future the U.S. model of hegemony, China's model of a harmonious Asia-Pacific region, ASEAN's model of regional cooperation, and the model of non-states actors. On the other hand, four different structures-security, production, finance and knowledge-are closely linked in this area. Third,globalization of the market economy brings dynamic and diverse development. The authors believe that China's"Harmonious Asia-Pacific" model is the best choice for the Asia-Pacific strategic pattern of "One superpower, multiple major powers."     

The U.S. Debate on Taiwan

A number of government officials and scholars in the U.S. have recently suggested that the country rethink its Taiwan policy, arguing that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan need to be reconsidered. However, the mainstream still emphasizes Taiwan’s strategic value to the U.S. and advocates maintaining the current policy on Taiwan.     

奥巴马治下美国“大中东”政策前瞻

奥巴马治下的美国对外政策的重点仍将是“大中东”。从伊拉克撤军,与伊拉克在政治、经济和安全关系协议方面作出规划,以解决美国在伊拉克长期利益和军事存在;可能与伊拉克进行谈判．但难度很大;中东和平进程有可能取得进展;阿富汗和巴基斯坦将成为美国的反恐重点地区;中国因素会受到越来越多的关注。     

The Gwadar Port Issue in Sino-U.S. Relations

Because of its unique geopolitical importance,China's aid to construct Gwadar Port has caused much concern in the U.S. and other countries. The U.S. sees it as strategic expansion in the Indian Ocean and claims that China is intent on using Gwadar Port as a naval base in its "string of pearls strategy." The U.S. and China maintain conflicting interests on this issue. Although Sino-U.S.relations may not be affected greatly in the near future, the negative influence in the long term cannot be ignored.     

美国《网络空间国际战略》评析

在信息化时代,网络空间承载着国家政治、经济、文化和军事发展与安全的重荷。网络空间存在的黑客攻击、网络犯罪和网络恐怖主义事件层出不穷,因此网络空间安全已上升到国家安全战略的层面,美国政府于2011年5月16日发布的《网络空间国际战略》引起世界各国瞩目。美国《网络空间国际战略》以"共同创造繁荣、安全、开放的网络世界"为基本宗旨,以"基本自由、隐私和信息流动自由"为核心原则,从经济、网络安全、司法、军事、网络管理、国际发展、网络自由等诸方面为美国未来网络安全战略的发展指明了方向。《网络空间国际战略》的出台表明美国政府已将网络安全提升到国际战略的新高度,它隐含着美国谋求网络空间霸权的战略目标,具有引领国际战略新变革和引发网络空间价值观冲突的现实战略效能,它对中美关系的影响和中国的应对之策也是值得认真分析和思考的。     

美国对华经贸规锁:典型事实、行为逻辑与战略约束

特朗普政府执政后,美国从升级对华关税制裁、重塑国际贸易规则、严控高新技术获取、扩容货币互换协议、打压中国概念股票、推进产业链自主化和"去中国化"六个维度,对中国实施选择性"挂钩"和关键领域"脱钩"的经贸规锁。其行为逻辑,一是为满足国内多元化经济集团的利益诉求,二是基于美国对中国崛起的"威胁认知"和大国战略竞争的"权力逻辑"。从战略约束看,美国开放性利益集团的经济理性、其他经济体的行为取向、中国的结构性国家竞争优势,构成了美国对华经贸规锁的重要制约因素。作为应对,中国需确定"全政府"的战略模式,理解"双循环"的科学内涵,贯彻改革开放的既定方针,重视"一带一路"倡议的战略意义。     

New trends in the cross-Strait relations between China and Taiwan

Although the political relation between the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of China on Taiwan has been stagnating in recent years, the bilateral trade and exchange between the two sides are booming rather swiftly. Beijing has changed its policy from using force against Taiwan even without independence in the year 2000 to only using force against independence in 2005. It indicates the maintenance of the status quo, the tolerance of the ROC legal structure, and peaceful coexistence only if Taiwan did not cross the Rubicon. While the opposition tries to reconcile with Beijing, the government keeps on its policy of confrontation. But still, Beijing has been trying hard to collaborate with the USA on the Taiwan issue, while offering increasing amount of friendly measures toward the Taiwanese people. Due to tremendous domestic and international pressure to the government in Taipei, its rapprochement to the Mainland is more and more likely to take place in the near future.We can set the Cornell visit of the former President Lee Teng-hui in summer 1995 as the start of the current stagnation of the cross-Strait relations because it triggered the PLA’s military manoeuvre in the Taiwan Strait. Since then, except for a short period of rapprochement in autumn 1998, the bilateral relations have never been improved. See: Tang 2002; ; ; .

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Evolution of the U.S. Strategy toward China and China’s Peaceful Development

China-U.S. relationship is the most important one between two big powers in the world today. It is both bilateral and global by nature. How to handle this relationship is closely linked with the fundamental interests of the U.S. and China, as well as peace and stability in the Asia Pacific region and even in the world. So, a profound examination of the nature of U.S. strategy toward China and its evolution over the years will help to fully understand the opportunities and challenges China will meet in the course of peaceful development.     

新安全视角下美国政府的气候政策

"人类安全"逐渐成为一种新的安全理念,环境气候问题等各种影响人类安全和福祉的非传统安全问题日益引起广泛关注。全球性安全威胁的严重程度则取决于治理框架的反应能力。包括气候政策、法律和机构在内的气候环境治理框架能够最大限度地削弱全球化冲突的根源,避免影响的发生或减缓其进程。奥巴马上任以来美国新政府能源、环境和应对气候变化政策出现较大调整,大力推动新能源法案来减缓气候变化。这一政策转向具有深刻的历史动因和政治基础,并将给美国经济复苏和美国企业的国际竞争力带来压力,加剧美国对外贸易摩擦和削弱其在国际气候环境合作中的领导地位。     

美国对华政策的基本取向是导致台海危机的根本动因

长期以来,台湾问题一直是影响中美关系正常发展的关键问题之一。然而,美国对华政策的基本取向始终是将台湾视为不享有主权国家之名的独立的“政治实体”。美国为了其亚太战略乃至全球战略利益考虑,不遗余力地为台湾“拓展国际空间”和制造“双重承认”创造有利的外部环境。正是由于美国的支持和纵容,台湾当局在处理两岸关系上,已经逐渐背离了“一个中国”的基本原则,其“台独”的反动嘴脸昭然若揭。