The European Neighbourhood Policy: Conditionality Revisited for the EU's Eastern Neighbours

The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) is modelled on the institutional and procedural experience of the EU's eastward enlargement, although it explicitly excludes a membership perspective. It thus aims to define an alternative incentive for domestic reform in neighbouring countries, referred to as ‘a stake in the internal market’. This article suggests that the ENP amounts to a form of ‘conditionality-lite’ for non-candidate countries. Within the ENP the key defining elements of conditionality—clear incentive and enforcement structures—are vague for both the EU and its neighbouring countries. Thus, the ENP is conceptually and empirically weak when measured against a simple, rationalist conditionality model. In line with the alternative understanding of conditionality as a process rather than a clear-cut variable, the main function of the ENP is twofold: it provides an external reference point which domestic political actors in the ENP countries can choose to utilise when it fits their agenda (both pro-EU or anti-EU); and a loose framework for socialisation. This process of socialisation involves both the EU and the ENP countries. Through an analysis of the ENP process in Ukraine and Moldova it concludes that while the ENP tries to prevent a repeat of the EU's ‘rhetorical entrapment’ in further eastward enlargement, it paradoxically paves the way for a ‘procedural entrapment’ in ENP countries that harbour membership aspirations and provides a momentum, though not a guarantee, for conflict resolution.     

Status Quo Bias or Institutionalisation for Reversibility?: The EU's Political Conditionality,Post-Accession Tendencies and Democratic Consolidation in Slovakia

The EU's political conditions have been a consistent and at times salient element in the accession process, since Brussels enlarged their scope and tightened procedures from the mid-1990s. But so far little attention has been given to post-accession compliance with these conditions. This is important, for while the European Commission no longer monitors them, the political conditions were imperfectly implemented by the time of the 2004 enlargement. The question that therefore arises is whether compliance continues or whether there are any tendencies to reverse the process. Using a comparative approach based on four alternative hypotheses, this problem is explored in detail using the case of Slovakia, a country where the EU has been a prominent factor in its return to the path of democratisation after the Me?iar years. Comparing Slovakia's performance on the EU political conditions before EU entry in 2004 and during the three years after, two competing approaches, ‘rationalist’ and ‘constructivist’, are assessed. It is found that the fears of the rationalists have not been strongly justified nor have the hopes of the constructivists been much encouraged. The outcome of political conditionality is related to democratic consolidation in Slovakia, and the conclusion is that the former assisted the latter despite its limitations but much more with respect to reforming institutions than to changing either attitudes or behaviour.     

Securing the Only Game in Town: The EU's Political Conditionality and Democratic Consolidation in Post-Soviet Latvia

The state of democracy in post-communist Europe has been subject to some debate in recent years; but it needs to take account of longer-term trends. The focus here is on how far the EU's political conditionality has contributed to democratic consolidation using an in-depth case study of post-Soviet Latvia. The record of the impacts of conditionality up to EU entry is examined and then attention turns to whether post-accession tendencies have demonstrated any significant changes after the end of Brussels' monitoring. Using a comparative framework, this article shows that the outcome after four years of EU membership is mixed with both positive and negative results. It is concluded that there is no automatic locking-in effect of European integration; and that conditionality assists democratic consolidation more in structural than in attitudinal or behavioural terms.     

POST‐ACCESSION POLITICIZATION OF NATIONAL EU POLICY COORDINATION: THE CASE OF SLOVENIA

This article focuses on how domestic and EU‐level political factors affect the functional aspect of the national coordination of EU affairs. Due to the idiosyncrasies of the post‐communist countries which have joined the EU since 2004, an analysis of dynamic changes in the national systems of coordination needs to focus on three factors: (a) functional pressures from the EU; (b) the consolidation of the national party system; and (c) existing traditions of politico‐administrative relations. The international economic and financial crisis is considered as a fourth factor that has affected the first three factors through the increase in the EU's 'informal intergovernmentalism', which adds to the politicization of EU matters. The Slovenian case points to an increased, though selective, politicization of EU business due to both national‐ and EU‐level factors.     

Challenges for EU governance through Neighbourhood Policy and Eastern Partnership: the values/security nexus in EU–Belarus relations

Whereas the European Union (EU) has had some effect on political and economic reforms in the Ukraine and Moldova, it almost completely failed to impress the regime and population of Belarus. Despite growing consensus at the EU level that the Union's policies for Eastern Europe cannot succeed without Belarus, few attempts have been made to account for the failure of EU governance in Belarus. Having recalled the current legal and institutional set-up of EU–Belarus relations, this article introduces the notion of the ‘values/security nexus’ to explain the limited impact of EU governance in Belarus. It argues that the highly contradictory normative objectives in the Union's current Neighbourhood Policy towards Belarus effectively undermine the EU's credibility in the country: idealist values of ‘winning the hearts and minds’ of the Belarusian population increasingly collide with traditional realist goals of protecting EU interests and the stability of the Belarusian state. By way of conclusion, the article highlights the challenges facing the EU's new Eastern Partnership, including Belarus.     

THE INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF EU AGENCIES: AGENCIES AS ‘MINI COMMISSIONS’

A stream of reviews that take stock of EU governance trends shows that the EU's governance agenda produces mixed results. EU agencies are part of the EU's search for new governance mechanisms. They have not proven to be a break with EU policy‐making processes – underpinning administrative stability rather than reform. This article explores the institutionalization of EU agencies. Using the case of the EU's human resources (HR) policy, it concludes that administrative details are important in order to understand the development of EU agencies turning into institutions. The influence of the EU's institutional environment on their operations is so strong that they must operate as ‘mini Commissions'. This tight control hinders their institutionalization.     

The EU's Relations with Moldova: Governance,Partnership or Ignorance?

This article examines recent EU–Moldova relations under the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) and the Eastern Partnership (EaP) in order to assess the EU's policies and their (limited) effectiveness over the past decade. I draw on the ‘external governance approach’ and develop the ‘partnership as cooperation perspective’ to examine which approach prevails in the theory and in the political practice of EU–Moldova relations. Whereas the external governance approach focuses on the expansion of EU rules to assess the effectiveness of the EU's external relations, the partnership perspective draws attention to effective cooperation based on mutual concessions in areas of converging preferences.     

How EU Integration and Legacies Mattered for Foreign Direct Investment into Central and Eastern Europe

This essay uses the case of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Central and Eastern Europe to stipulate how European Union (EU) integration affected the economic globalisation of the post-socialist region. Existing studies argue that expectations of impending EU membership had a direct effect on raising FDI inflows because they reduced perceived investment risks for potential investors. In contrast, I show that the EU accession process worked through an indirect effect on FDI: it influenced post-socialist states' efforts to promote FDI as a desirable strategy of economic development and the behaviour of firms. These state efforts, in turn, increased FDI inflows, net of conventional risk and return factors. Further analyses indicate that decisions about state FDI-promotion have been influenced not only by EU conditionality but also, and importantly, by particular legacies, namely the countries' initial choice of privatisation strategies, extent of reform during socialism and history of state sovereignty. Overall, the results suggest that EU integration and legacies of the past shape both the structural and the ideational context for domestic decision-making elites in Central and Eastern Europe, and may act not only as constraints but also as enabling conditions facilitating the global economic integration of the region.     

EU trade and development policy beyond the ACP: subordinating developmental to commercial imperatives in the reform of GSP

Following the stagnation of negotiations with the African, Caribbean and Pacific states, the centrepiece of the European Union's (EU's) trade and development strategy has been a reform of the Generalised System of Preferences. Although policy-makers in the Commission's Directorate General for Trade have argued they are ‘refocusing’ these preferences on the ‘neediest’, by rendering a significant proportion of emerging economies' exports ineligible for the scheme, this article argues that the reform is actually part of a broader ‘reciprocity’ agenda being pursued in the context of the current economic crisis. This is about ensuring the EU possesses sufficient offensive leverage in ongoing free trade agreement negotiations, rather than representing any mercantilist move towards greater domestic protection. In arguing that the EU's developmental trade agenda is increasingly subordinated to commercial imperatives, this article adds to a literature that has situated the study of EU trade and development policy within the field of political economy.     

The EU's Response to the International Court of Justice's Judgment on Kosovo's Declaration of Independence

In this essay an evaluation of the content and determinants of the EU's response to the ICJ is provided. Two core questions are addressed: firstly, did the ICJ's judgment alter EU policy towards Kosovo and Serbia and, secondly, was EU policy towards Kosovo and Serbia effective? It is argued that the EU's response to the ICJ's judgment in 2010 has been consistent and effective, but that the underlying determinants of the policy have not changed since 2008. It is argued that the EU's response to the ICJ's judgment in 2010 has been consistent and effective and that the ICJ judgment has had a catalytic effect on the EU's influence over Serbia and the Serbia–Kosovo relationship. Overall, EU policy has been effective, despite being periodically ad hoc.     

Cherry Picking EU Conditionality: Selective Compliance in Georgia’s Hybrid Regime

This article investigates the rationale behind compliance and non-compliance with EU conditionality in Georgia’s hybrid regime. Following the literature on competitive authoritarianism, it argues that the survival strategies of hybrid regime incumbents compel them to dodge conditionality in those policy areas that are crucial for maintaining the uneven political playing field. On the other hand, specific self-preservation tactics dictate that they should embrace neighbourhood Europeanisation in policy domains capable of generating votes. Taken together, these hypotheses alert us to the possibility that hybrid regime governments in the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) countries are cherry picking conditionality.     

Estonia caught between East and West: EU conditionality,Russia's activism and minority integration

This article takes a subjective approach to studying norm compliance in order to determine how EU conditionality and Russia's activism have affected elite attitudes toward minority policies, majority–minority relations, and language use in Estonian society in the post-accession period. The results of a Q method study and semi-structured interviews with integration elites in spring 2008 reveal four distinct viewpoints. The study casts doubt upon the success of EU conditionality in Estonia by demonstrating that European minority rights norms remain contested and have not been internalized by a substantial portion of elites. In addition, the study points to an important role for Russia's activism in the development of a more inclusive society. Russia's activism actually works against minority integration by reinforcing pre-existing domestic norms that are not compatible with European minority rights standards and by aggravating tensions over history and language, which frustrate integration efforts. This article ultimately contributes to studies on the effects of international pressure on minority integration by pointing to the need for greater attention to the ways in which multiple actors at both the international and domestic levels structure the influence of EU conditionality.     

Disputes over the 15-point agreement on normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia

This paper examines the 15-point agreement on normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia. Two mainstream discourses have prevailed since the agreement was ratified by both countries: on one hand, the Government of Kosovo has branded this agreement as historic, given the fact that in the last century no agreement has ever been reached between Kosovo and Serbia. On the other hand, Kosovo's political opposition has critiqued this agreement stressing that the 15-point agreement devastates Kosovo's statehood. Beyond both extreme stances, we argue that an enhanced autonomy for four northern Serb municipalities ought to be seen as a tool for integration, rather than disintegration of Kosovo statehood. This paper concludes that the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia as a top-down arrangement lacks transparency, and this might jeopardize the achievements reached through this process. Moreover, the EU position should be clearly articulated that redrawing and rearranging the borders of Kosovo and Serbia might overturn the EU's and USA's immense investments in stability, peace, and prosperity in the Western Balkans.     

‘Selective Affinities’: The Reactions of the Council of Europe and the European Union to the Second Armed Conflict in Chechnya (1999 – 2006)

This article aims to compare how the main bodies of the European Union and the Council of Europe reacted to the issues raised by the armed conflict in Chechnya: human rights violations; the necessity (or otherwise) of political negotiations between the Chechens and the Russians; and Chechen terrorism. While the requests for political negotiations were quickly dropped by nearly all organs of the Council of Europe (CoE) and European Union (EU), the issue of human rights abuses uncovered a chasm between the legislative and decision-making bodies. The terrorist acts had no impact on either the EU's or the CoE's definition of the conflict in Chechnya, but they did influence EU policy. In sum, this comparison suggests the presence of ‘selective affinities’ between the CoE and EU bodies depending on the issue involved.     

Trading in development: norms and institutions in the making/unmaking of European Union–African,Caribbean and Pacific trade and development cooperation

This paper offers a contribution to recent debates on European Union (EU) external trade and development policy, with a specific focus on the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) group of countries. The question asked is why the EU encountered such difficulties in the attempt to translate its normative preferences for freer trade and closer economic integration into a series of binding agreements? Drawing on both economic constructivist and historical institutionalist insights, it is argued that the case for reform initially rested on a strong convergence between institutions and ideas, enabling the EU to discursively present desired policy reforms as necessary to satisfy World Trade Organisation trade rules. However, in due course, the institutional dynamics behind the latter began to diverge from the EU's policy preferences and blunt its norm-based argument – thus creating the space for transnational coalitions to, first, question and, ultimately, undermine aspects the EU's trade and development prospectus for the ACP.     

Transnational policy networks and the European Union's energy policy

The goal of this article is to critically examine the engagement between the European Union (EU) and a transnational policy network (TPN) that deals with an issue that has grown in importance in the architecture of the EU's energy policy: fracking. The author argues that successful engagement between the EU and networks on shale gas was facilitated by the fact that the TPN or the members of the TPN were in possession of technical and scientific information that is highly needed by institutions in Brussels. Also, the article reveals that the fact that EU energy insecurity has been high on the EU agenda increased EU's interest in actors that could provide vital insights into potential panaceas and palliatives to energy insecurity.     

Challenging the European Union: the rising powers and the USA in the Doha Round

In this article, the challenges posed to the European Union's (EU) role in trade policy and its implications for development policy during the World Trade Organization's Doha Development Agenda, also known as the Doha round, are highlighted. The authors argue that transformed power relations have created a situation characterized by role uncertainty, for the emerging powers but also for the EU. Priorities among multiple possible roles – in the existing trade regime, in relation to the global South and in the ongoing negotiations – become subject to redefinition. For the EU, heavily wedded to a multilateralist and reformist mission because of its own history, this process is particularly difficult. The EU's traditional role conceptions as a leader and a benign partner to developing countries have been challenged and partly replaced by a more realist approach.     

Regionalisation as a Driving Force of EU Widening: Recovering from the EU ‘Carrot Crisis’ in the ‘East’

This article focuses on the ‘globalisation-cum-regionalisation’ process in the European Union that has led to the emergence of functional macro-regions. It provides first a classification of regionalisation, and describes the organisational and mental barriers of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). The second part traces the shift of the ENP from the South to the East that has also activated the EU's pre-accession policy in the West Balkan region and the Eastern Partnership programme. Finally, it argues that the Baltic Strategy and the Danube Strategy as functional macro-regions are the main instruments to overcome the weaknesses of the incentive-based approach in the EU's conditionality (or, as it is described here, its ‘carrot crisis’).     

Monitoring,Money and Migrants: Countering Post-Accession Backsliding in Bulgaria and Romania

Using cross-national governance indicators and evidence from a recent Bulgarian survey, this essay examines political reforms in Bulgaria and Romania since EU accession and, in particular, the ‘backsliding’ hypothesis—that these countries have abandoned or reversed the reforms they introduced in order to qualify for membership of the European Union. It finds no systematic evidence either that these countries have been backsliding or that their trajectories differ significantly from their first-wave Central and East European neighbours, though governance reforms have slowed after accession. The second part of the essay focuses on the mechanisms responsible for the lack of significant backsliding, emphasising the role of continued conditionality through the safeguard clauses, EU funding and increasing linkage between new and old EU members, including opportunities for East Europeans to work and travel in Western Europe.     

International aid

Democracy and human rights assistance has established itself as a notable component of European Union (EU) development aid budgets. The EU's approach to promoting democratic reform in developing states exhibits distinctive features focused on the enhancement of grass roots democratic capacities. Efforts have been made to invest developmental approaches with genuine political impact and to ensure mutually enhancing linkages between democracy projects and mainstream good governance initiatives. Shortcomings remain, however, both in the conceptualisation of the link between democracy-building and local level social development; and in the more overtly political dimensions of European strategies.